Ferdinand VII isn't captured by Napoleon?

[Vinization]

Less than two months after becoming king of Spain for the first time, Ferdinand VII and his deposed father, Charles IV, were called upon by Napoleon to go to Bayonne to, officially, sort out the situation that was developing as a result of the Tumult of Aranjuez and the Dos de Mayo Uprising. Both Bourbons were forced to abdicate the Spanish crown in favor of Joseph Bonaparte once they got there, thus kicking off the Peninsular War. Ferdinand then spent the time between his forced abdication and his restoration in a luxurious château in the French countryside.

What if he somehow realized Napoleon was planning to double cross him and, instead of going to Bayonne, urged the Spanish people to kick out the French troops already inside their territory? Assuming he's not already in London or somewhere else by the time the Battle of Bailén takes place (and the French position in Iberia collapses), how could Ferdinand's physical presence on Spanish soil affect the process that led to the creation of the 1812 Constitution? Finally, and I admit this is a bit of wishful thinking, could having him take an active part in the war effort (as opposed to staying in the conditions already mentioned above) make him less of a dick?

 

[Tanaka did nothing wrong]

Well, the thing is, it's difficult, since the fernandistas were thinking that they could use the threat of or actual French intervention to displace Godoy or even bring about the dynastic change some in his camp wanted, since they considered Ferdinand's accession the chance for a new rallying point that could prevent the further fracturing of the government, court and empire. Refusing to go to Bayonne would be rather difficult, Ferdinand himself seems to have been thoroughly convinced of Napoleon's friendship (the guarantee of protection at the time of the Escorial trials and other gestures); refusing to go there, even after Bonaparte would have most likely sent a letter reaffirming his "friendly feelings and affection" would be difficult to justify, since France and Spain would still be allies. (at least that's my understanding).

Anyway, if he doesn't go to Bayonne, Napoleon could perhaps ultimately fund himself in a better position than OTL; for the moment, the juntas are still disunited and despite disturbances, Bailen hadn't happened. Although Charles IV had little credibility, he would still have a better claim than Joseph, considering the way Ferdinand and his clique had wrestled control of Spain. Therefore, perhaps he would try to use this as a way to gain fuller control of Spain, by presenting himself as the defender of dynasic order. Ferdinand would soon run into difficulties trying to bring the juntas under control and also deal with the French troops in his country; the remnants of Godoy's faction and reformist elements, if he turned the wheel too hard towards conservatism, could perhaps side with Charles (more out of spite for Ferdinand), and if the conservatives attempted to turn the clock back too quickly and too much (including declaring the actions of various bodies in the colonies in order to facilitate trade null and void and implementing a "harder" commercial policy), trouble would be brewing on the other side of the Atlantic. Spain would probably find itself closer to a situation resembling civil war. This could go perhaps either way: on the one hand, the Spanish now have a more clearly recognised central authority in the face of Ferdinand, which could make the reorganisation of the army more quick. On the other hand, Spain is probably more divided and the French army is more prepared for a fight there, which means that Napoleon will pay more attention to the war there. This in turn may allow the French to avoid some if not most of their early defeats there.

eidt: An interesting situation might develop if Ferdinand had sought refuge in Cadiz and tried to escape across the Atlantic like the Braganzas did; IOTL, a (major) reason Aranjuez happened was that a good deal of Spain's metropolitan elites were worried that once Charles had settled in New Spain, he would implement policies similar to those of the Portuguese royal court in Brazil that had largely ended the previous closed trading system. So here, with the country's sovereignty seemingy not so gravely threatened (perhaps), Ferdinand's attempts might cause enough backlash to cause trouble for him.

(I hope I haven't made any mistakes)

 

[Fulano]

An interesting situation might develop if Ferdinand had sought refuge in Cadiz and tried to escape across the Atlantic like the Braganzas did; IOTL, a (major) reason Aranjuez happened was that a good deal of Spain's metropolitan elites were worried that once Charles had settled in New Spain, he would implement policies similar to those of the Portuguese royal court in Brazil that had largely ended the previous closed trading system. So here, with the country's sovereignty seemingy not so gravely threatened (perhaps), Ferdinand's attempts might cause enough backlash to cause trouble for him.

Either that or his rule from New Spain is so horrible that they just decide to ignore him or even gets kicked out to another place.