Fate of Austria-Hungary without WWI?

ChrisTheCat

In the unlikely event that the first World War did not occur due to whatever POD, what would be the long-term fate of the Austro-Hungarian Empire?

I keep imagining that if A-H makes it to 1927 that things might go awry during the Ausgleich and attempts at reforming the Empire would be aggressively fought against by Hungary. If this ended up in civil war, I could see this leading to a situation like the Spanish Civil War where different countries actively support different sides, but also with the possibility of beginning a Europe-wide war due to A-H's Great Power status and issues with the balance of power.
 

Lalli

A-H would face intresting situation in 1920's. In 1927 emperor Franz Ferdinand I would try to reform his empire are federal state what he had already long time planned. But it wouldn't be easy thing. Hungary would oppose reforms. Unless FF can't keep Hungary in order, things would go really messy. Hungary either faces civil war with many factions and almost every neighbor taking their own parts from the decaying empire. Or then it just splits as Hungary and Greater Austria.

If FF is lucky and manage to federalise the empire and keep Hungary, the country would become federal state and probably plagued by separatism and local chauvinism making that big Belgium. A-H or on this scenario probably Danubian Federation, could last until 2023 and beyond. But it would has still some tensions with its neighbors speciality with Italy, Serbia, Romania and Russia assuming that it can keep Poland that long.
 

Fehérvári

Hungary was in the process of slow democratisation prior to WW1. A new electoral law passed in 1913 increased the number of people eligible to vote from 6% to 10% of the total population and introduced secret ballot in the capital and big cities. The elections in 1915 would probably result in pro-electoral reform elements becoming more prominent, making further reforms possible. The next elections (in 1920 the latest) would likely be even more liberal, extending voting rights to 15–22% of the total population (based on OTL plans). By the time FF ascends to the throne, his (dubious) window of opportunity to larp as Josef II would be gone as Hungarian politics would adjust to the changing power dynamics within the legislation.

In fact, FF would already have his hands full with Cisleithania, considering how he planned to keep the Reichsrat indefinitely adjourned and govern via "emergency decrees".
 

Nivek

Fehérvári said:
Hungary was in the process of slow democratisation prior to WW1. A new electoral law passed in 1913 increased the number of people eligible to vote from 6% to 10% of the total population and introduced secret ballot in the capital and big cities. The elections in 1915 would probably result in pro-electoral reform elements becoming more prominent, making further reforms possible. The next elections (in 1920 the latest) would likely be even more liberal, extending voting rights to 15–22% of the total population (based on OTL plans). By the time FF ascends to the throne, his (dubious) window of opportunity to larp as Josef II would be gone as Hungarian politics would adjust to the changing power dynamics within the legislation.

In fact, FF would already have his hands full with Cisleithania, considering how he planned to keep the Reichsrat indefinitely adjourned and govern via "emergency decrees".
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The trick of FF was to hope a hung parliament in Translethania by extendending the suffrage earlier....and that way govern fully via emergency decrees, but the more he waits, the more he also realized status quo is god...
 

Docky90

Fehérvári said:
Hungary was in the process of slow democratisation prior to WW1. A new electoral law passed in 1913 increased the number of people eligible to vote from 6% to 10% of the total population and introduced secret ballot in the capital and big cities. The elections in 1915 would probably result in pro-electoral reform elements becoming more prominent, making further reforms possible. The next elections (in 1920 the latest) would likely be even more liberal, extending voting rights to 15–22% of the total population (based on OTL plans). By the time FF ascends to the throne, his (dubious) window of opportunity to larp as Josef II would be gone as Hungarian politics would adjust to the changing power dynamics within the legislation.

In fact, FF would already have his hands full with Cisleithania, considering how he planned to keep the Reichsrat indefinitely adjourned and govern via "emergency decrees".
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Even 10% of the total population referred to as "democratisation" is still considered optimistic thinking.
 

Fehérvári

Docky90 said:
Even 10% of the total population referred to as "democratisation" is still considered optimistic thinking.
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Keep in mind that figure refers to the total population. It includes women, children and everyone else who one usually doesn't expect to have voting rights in this time period anywhere. Prior to 1918, the same metric for the UK was about 17-18%. Britain's figure might seem significantly higher at first glance, but it must be noted that in Hungary every voter had only one vote (unlike in Britain, where many among the landed gentry had more).
 
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Vabasion

Croats, Slovaks, Ukrainians and Romanians disliked to heavily hated Hungarians. They’d always side with Austria over Hungary in any case of revolt. Romanians may try to go independent but others would not. Bosniaks were extremely loyal to the Tzar Josip and would be to Franjo as well and would fight against Hungarians. Czechs could be bought with promises and reforms that benefit them. Franz Ferdinand would be able to push trough reforms he desired even without outside support. Which Germany may be willing to provide regardless.

AH was experiencing a booming economy, low unemployment and was undergoing military reforms and modernization. If it survived it’s likely this continued, the Balkans and other peripheral regions get further industrialization and benefit from it. Serbia loses its ability to expand due to relative satisfaction of Slavs under Austrian rule which was its biggest fear and driving factor to kill Ferdinand.

Without world wars old order reigns supreme for decades more, chivalry, manners and high culture are greatly appreciated for longer and wars are glorified. Colonialism continues everywhere
 

Fehérvári

Vabasion said:
They’d always side with Austria over Hungary in any case of revolt.
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Why would Hungary revolt in the first place?
Vabasion said:
Czechs could be bought with promises and reforms that benefit them
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Such as? Czech becoming official language in Bohemia, Moravia and Silesia? The exact issue that kept paralysing the Reichsrat on and off ever since the late 1890s? The Germans of Austria vehemently opposed this idea.

en.m.wikipedia.org

Count Kasimir Felix Badeni - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org en.m.wikipedia.org
 

BeardedHoplite

It's worth mentioning that the oft-dreades nationalism problem really only came to a head after 3 and 1/2 years of a new form of warfare no one had experienced before. It is very likely that Austria not only survives, but begins to thrive as pre-war investments pan out and the economy grows.

The hungarians would be the biggest problem, but even they would be able to see the writing on the wall and cave into any reforms
 

AlexanderDragon

I gotta disagree with the quiet assumption here that the Hasburg empire was pre wwi on some inherently unstable foundation. The Hasburgs kept the loyalty of their population until deep in 1918, and nationalism and ethnic identity was not viewed as incompatible with a greater "Austrian" identity. Hell Francis Palacky, perhaps the man who birthed the idea of a Czech also could also say that
"Truly, if the Austrian Empire had not existed for the ages, it would be in the interest of Europe, nay and of humanity herself to hurry to create her"(Oration to the Pan-Slavic Conference 1848)

Reform efforts were and would seek to focus on two most problematic issues within the current system, namely how to order the autonomy of the Czechs and the Croatians. The Czechs wanted effectively a second compromise, where a Bohemian Kingdom(including Moravia and Silesia) would act as a third entity within the empire. Franz Ferdinand was sympathetic to that argument(as were many in Austria), but there was two big issues with that, namely that Moravia and Silesia kinda liked their autonomy and secondly that dismantling Cisleithania would open up the unwanted question of what to do with Galicia, which otherwise was mostly content with her situation in the empire and squabbling amongst itself.

Croatia would likely get fixed by bullying Hungary into giving it up, several proposals had gotten the begrudging consent of Hungary to separate in some reform efforts that ultimately died out. Also, it seems the historical autonomy of the Kingdom made it seem less integral to most non ultranationalists. In exchange for Croatia, the other less important minorities would be thrown to the Hungarian wolves and you have a settlement that 90% of the Empire is, if not happy then at least ok with.

I don't know if that continuing Austria would be better or worse world for Eastern Europe then what we have now, but I do think we live in what's by chance is probably the less likely timeline then some kind of continuing Hasburg Empire.
 
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Docky90

Fehérvári said:
Keep in mind that figure refers to the total population. It includes women, children and everyone else who one usually doesn't expect to have voting rights in this time period anywhere. Prior to 1918, the same metric for the UK was about 17-18%. Britain's figure might seem significantly higher at first glance, but it must be noted that in Hungary every voter had only one vote (unlike in Britain, where many among the landed gentry had more).
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That is exactly why. Without woman having voting rights, it isn't a real democracy.
 

Fehérvári

Docky90 said:
That is exactly why. Without woman having voting rights, it isn't a real democracy.
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Sure, but how many countries had women's suffrage before WW1? Not many.
1696964830814.png

(From Wikipedia)
 

Fehérvári

Docky90 said:
True, and among these "not many" countries are where democratisation truly did happen then. (Considering no other factors were at place.)
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Democratisation is a process that needs to start somewhere. I didn't claim Hungary would become a full-fledged democracy thanks to these (initial) reforms.

Still, pro-democratic reformers were gradually growing in strength at the time, so I wouldn't be surprised if the issue of women's suffrage would eventually come into focus sooner or later. After all, partial women's suffrage was achieved in post-war Hungary IOTL. During the Horthy Era, women from the age of 30 were allowed to vote if they finished elementary school (6 classes).
 

Docky90

Fehérvári said:
Democratisation is a process that needs to start somewhere. I didn't claim Hungary would become a full-fledged democracy thanks to these (initial) reforms.

Still, pro-democratic reformers were gradually growing in strength at the time, so I wouldn't be surprised if the issue of women's suffrage would eventually come into focus sooner or later. After all, partial women's suffrage was achieved in post-war Hungary IOTL. During the Horthy Era, women from the age of 30 were allowed to vote if they finished elementary school (6 classes).
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Now that's an interesting thought to entertain.
 
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