Let's say that America gets involved in some atl version of WWI quite early in the game; it has a lot of troops deployed and they're seeing years of sustained combat. Handwaving away the precise way that this happens, let's say that the alt-Entente loses the war; its forces are defeated on the battlefield, and the US army withdraws from France having been defeated after sinking a lot of resources into the war. What would the impact of such a defeat be on American politics, culture, and society? Would this play out like Vietnam almost 60 years early?
Effect on America of a long participation in WWI ending in defeat?
- Thread starter HIM Dogson
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We'll say that https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venezuelan_crisis_of_1902–1903 this turns Venezuela into a german protectorate, and results in the US being more directly hostile to Germany; idk, maybe McKinley doesn't die and TR isn't in charge to bully the germans off at that point. regardless, this would be pretty implausible, but it works. Maybe as a result of this, the US guarantees Belgium or China, basically out of spite. for the sake of this, we'll go with Belgium. now, this would change the calculus of the invasion, but eh.
obviously, we can't know exactly how the 20s would go, but i would assume poorly. France, Britain, and Italy would all default on their debts and the new russian government doesn't acknowledge them. America would be booted out of Europe by this, especially since the germans were not a freely trading people. The 20s wouldn't be roaring; if anything, it'd be a long depression. millions of men are coming home to find their jobs unavailable, and the military economy that fuelled the war would be downsizing rapidly. The dustbowl might actually be worse due to the increased need for rationing. This would likely result in a lot of reformist populism. Not fascism or communism, but people like Debbs, FDR, or Long would become a lot more popular going into 1928, especially if the stock market crashes.
we won't get kaiserreich unless france and britain do actually succumb to some wild revolution and destroy what trade the states does have left, but eh
- the USN clowns on whatever Germany has in the Caribbean, and installs a friendly government in Venezuela, analogous to the OTL mandates. whatever, it was just to ruin german-american relations enough
- While America would declare war in 1914, it would take until 15 to get troops directly there. maybe 16, depending on SA. we'll say that the USN in the Caribbean means less shipping so the western front goes slightly better for Germany, which means when the doughboys arrive they can't just roll over em with numbers combined with Russia
- as a side note, we'll have Russia do even worse somehow and send them packing in 1916. Reds win so i don't have to consider them too much.
- America is doing the trench warfare and all that stuff alongside the rest of them. They'd probably be deployed all over the west, but we'll say mostly in Belgium and italy, since those would be the fronts most in need of shoring up.
- The Germans take Paris by 1918 after the collapse of russia, overwhelming the americans
obviously, we can't know exactly how the 20s would go, but i would assume poorly. France, Britain, and Italy would all default on their debts and the new russian government doesn't acknowledge them. America would be booted out of Europe by this, especially since the germans were not a freely trading people. The 20s wouldn't be roaring; if anything, it'd be a long depression. millions of men are coming home to find their jobs unavailable, and the military economy that fuelled the war would be downsizing rapidly. The dustbowl might actually be worse due to the increased need for rationing. This would likely result in a lot of reformist populism. Not fascism or communism, but people like Debbs, FDR, or Long would become a lot more popular going into 1928, especially if the stock market crashes.
we won't get kaiserreich unless france and britain do actually succumb to some wild revolution and destroy what trade the states does have left, but eh
If the Germans are smart, they'd court the US as an ally for the near-inevitable next conflict, and focus elsewhere. The reason why the US might join the war earlier also changes things- if the war is seen as unjustified and a blunder, they could play on American grievances with France, Britain, and Italy- "they dragged us into their war, and now they refuse to pay their debts." Both sides have a lot to gain- the Americans want a market for their products, and the Germans stand to gain a western ally, or at least, truly neutral party which could be dragged into the next war on their side this time around.
I don't think it's too late for the German-Americans to de-assimilate, either. Two world wars- one of them led by regimes cartoonishly evil enough to actually make the other side, for all their flaws, the "good guys" - is what did it in fully. Just one, and they can gradually revert back within the same generation- and this time with shared experiences of discrimination and some internment to rally their communities together all the more so.
Of course, this assumes the Germans play it smart. Maybe if they're lucky, Wilhelm II either learns his lesson (unlikely) or Germany is lucky and he kicks the bucket early.
Very likely, since the only way America loses that war is by refusing to commit their full forces and industry to it. And that's a real possibility since isolationist and anti-war feelings were strong OTL, so the government strong-arming the nation into a conflict will be seen as having blundered. A LOT of American soldiers are going to get killed given the poor state of readiness in 1914.
Why would the USN being there mean less shipping? That will be far worse for Germany since they can't purchase American goods, even by proxy. It also hinders commerce raiding against Britain and gives yet another means of enforcing the blockade against Germany.
Even if the quality of American soldiers in 1914, and no doubt even by the end of 1915, would be extremely poor, the only way the arrival of a few hundred thousand Americans won't win the war is because Russia and Serbia do far worse than OTL.
the US would be busy dealing with venezuela in my scenario, and i figured it would be a decent way to set up the loss.
OTL the German Empire was basically hostile to the US as early as 1880, even under bismarck, so it's hard to say. but i could see America being more favorable to Germany in such a scenario for round two
Even with just Britain and France Germany was losing the war when Russia collapsed. I really cannot see ANY scenario where they manage to even hold out until 1916 with the United States heavily involved from the start. The addition of a million soldiers onto the Western Front, even in 1915, is not something Germany can just fight through. And that doesn’t change just no matter how much worse Russia does. Not to mention with the addition of American soldiers in Italy Austria will be collapsing, early.
Yeah, feel like you need to create alt-WWI coalitions. The Central Powers beating the Entente with America early aiding? Very hard and unlikely. US maybe trying to reinforce an ally that is losing but has significant debts or it is bound to, and only lengthening the defeat is more possible.