Earlier Fall of the Second French Empire = No Franco-Prussian War?

So, some food for thought. The Franco-Prussian War was one of the biggest game-changers in European history and would help set the stage for future European and global effects. Furthermore, we know the story on how the war started and how Bismarck helped manipulate the events with Napoleon III being strung along?

What if Napoleon III wasn't in power?

What if in, say in between 1863 and 1865, the Second French Empire fell and the Third French Republic was born. I won't give too many details since it could steer focus away from the point of the thread (which tends to happen alot.) But I will say that the French incident in Mexico was alot worse and led to France losing pretty much all its holdings in the Americas.

So, it's 1965, the French had gotten rid of their monarchy that gotten them in a war they lost and alienated the US and Mexico. How would they deal with Prussia? I doubt they'd want to go to war given the loss.

What would Prussia do with little chance in goading France?
 

The Avenger

Banned
So, it's 1965, the French had gotten rid of their monarchy that gotten them in a war they lost and alienated the US and Mexico. How would they deal with Prussia? I doubt they'd want to go to war given the loss.

What would Prussia do with little chance in goading France?
First, you mean 1865, correct?

Secondly, Prussia can try stirring up separatist sentiment in Alsace-Lorraine.
 
First, you mean 1865, correct?

Secondly, Prussia can try stirring up separatist sentiment in Alsace-Lorraine.
Yeah, hit the wrong key there.

So, Prussia would still the and goad France into a fight, even a weakened on? I’m still wondering if this means that France would still remain neutral in the Austria-Prussian War
 
Secondly, Prussia can try stirring up separatist sentiment in Alsace-Lorraine.

This would be very surprising since separatist sentiment was much stronger in the German States than in Alsace. And besides, the germanic speaking alsacians wanted to become part of Germany as much as the germanic speaking people swiss : virtually none of them.

Now, concerning a republican France declaring war to Prussia on the kind of trap Bismarck set OTL, I will mention 2 points.

OTL, a part of the republican opposition pushed hard in favor of war against Prussia in 1870 so this is not impossible.

However, for France to declare war the way Napoleon III did OTL, you need it to have a strong executive power, which the french republicans absolutely refused to.

So my guess is that if a republican France received the Ems dispatch, it would be furious but it would very unlikely go to war over this rebuffal.
 
Okay, this makes sense here. Though this includes another question? Would France join Austria in their war against Prussia or stay neutral?

As for the leader of France, assume it is Adolphe Theirs
 
Bismarck certainly would want to create a kleindeutsch Empire. The question is, how. IOTL the French wanted "revenge for Sadowa", but ITTL they might have other things in their heads, coming fresh out a(nother) revolution.
 
Bismarck certainly would want to create a kleindeutsch Empire. The question is, how. IOTL the French wanted "revenge for Sadowa", but ITTL they might have other things in their heads, coming fresh out a(nother) revolution.

Well yes. France has gotten rid of Napoleon III, lost their colonial possessions in the Americas and not on good terms with them as a result of imperial ambitions, hence why some reluctance to get into war.

Austria-Prussian War soon happens and France could stay out or enter to help Austria. Napoleon III may have stayed out for some vague promise or something, but we’re in a different situation and perhaps a loss could make France more wary of its neighbors
 
Nappy III had wasted lots of money and weapons for the Mexican adventure. In fact, to deceive his parliament about the situation, he had plundered the stocks. So France isn't exactly in the optimal situation to make war.
 
Nappy III had wasted lots of money and weapons for the Mexican adventure. In fact, to deceive his parliament about the situation, he had plundered the stocks. So France isn't exactly in the optimal situation to make war.

Yeah, that makes sense there. So Austrian-Prussian War likely goes the same unless France would be desperate to try and get money from Prussia as a war compensaron, but that seems unlikely.

So given how France will be doing what they can to avoid war and is now weakened, this makes it more unlikely Bismarck can get into war with them
 
So, here is what I have so far on thought:

  • It's unlikely (but not impossible) for France to intervene in the Austria-Prussian War (likely on Austria's side)
  • France will likely be focusng on building up military and updating it during the next couple of years.
  • Prussia will still want to make Germany if it wins the war against Prussia.
Ultimately though, what could change outside of maybe a stronger France against Prussia?
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
So, here is what I have so far on thought:

  • It's unlikely (but not impossible) for France to intervene in the Austria-Prussian War (likely on Austria's side)
  • France will likely be focusng on building up military and updating it during the next couple of years.
  • Prussia will still want to make Germany if it wins the war against Prussia.
Ultimately though, what could change outside of maybe a stronger France against Prussia?

A stronger France against Britain also? A France that joins with Britain in the Egyptian intervention, or that makes more trouble in the overseas world to retaliate against later British monopolization of Egypt?
 
A stronger France against Britain also? A France that joins with Britain in the Egyptian intervention, or that makes more trouble in the overseas world to retaliate against later British monopolization of Egypt?

Not sure. Right now I’m focusing on France regarding Austria-Prussian War and whether the Franco-Prussian War would happen.

If France did get involved with Austria-Prussia, it’d likely spell the end for Prussia’s ambitions with Germany (they’d lose a lot of their western gains and they’d probably focus on the Baltics due to Livonian past to compensate so they’d still be a power player albeit more East.)

Otherwise, I’m wondering what would Prussia do if they failed in goading France or if worse, come off as the antagonizer and alienate more of Europe
 
If France did get involved with Austria-Prussia, it’d likely spell the end for Prussia’s ambitions with Germany
There was a secret treaty with Russia if France tried to meddle in that war plus why a republican France would matter that war or a prussian in the spanish throne either?
 
There was a secret treaty with Russia if France tried to meddle in that war plus why a republican France would matter that war or a prussian in the spanish throne either?
Germany having the secret treaty with Russia? Which one was that?

My thoughts were out of caution. Having gotten beaten, France would be more cautious and proactive with dealing with their neighbors. Besides increasing and reforming military I mean.

If France won’t be bothered by Prussia’s goading attempts, then the latter is going to having a harder time getting the southern states to fully make Germany.

Maybe France could extend an olive branch to the North German Confederacy, but I have no idea if that would be plausible.
 
Germany having the secret treaty with Russia? Which one was that?
It was one mentioned by susano and Perkins, seems bismarck got an insurrance if someone tried to jump but seems never was needed, more info about it might be in german.

If France won’t be bothered by Prussia’s goading attempts, then the latter is going to having a harder time getting the southern states to fully make Germany.
Historical myth , heck Even the Southern Germans state might join as the money was too big to pass up plus the whole war was bismarck wanting a buffer, if France is not meddling in germany war is not needed
 
It was one mentioned by susano and Perkins, seems bismarck got an insurrance if someone tried to jump but seems never was needed, more info about it might be in german.

Historical myth , heck Even the Southern Germans state might join as the money was too big to pass up plus the whole war was bismarck wanting a buffer, if France is not meddling in germany war is not needed

Apparently, there was supposed to an alliance between Italy, France and Austria that got ruined because of Napoleon III. With him no longer around, maybe the alliance could come together for that
 
So, here is what I have so far on thought:

  • It's unlikely (but not impossible) for France to intervene in the Austria-Prussian War (likely on Austria's side)
  • France will likely be focusng on building up military and updating it during the next couple of years.
  • Prussia will still want to make Germany if it wins the war against Prussia.
Ultimately though, what could change outside of maybe a stronger France against Prussia?

Unlikely, given the tendency Liberals in Nappy III's OTL government to vote against the expansion and modernization of the standing army. French Republicans during the long 19th century tended to see the military as a tool of Conservative absolutism, and especially so soon after having kicked out a military-adventure pushing monarch with a large power base among the army and military brass would probably not be too keen to immediately re-empower them.
 
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