Down the Parallel Road: An Afsharid Persia Timeline

Great Eastern War - Part One
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Maurizio Carbone: The First Modern Conflict in History - The Great Eastern War

Russia's First Offensive into Poland

The Great Eastern War had been launched by an enormous miscalculation. Catherine had correctly judged that the Conservative Hapsburg monarchy would be horrified by the declaration of a liberal constitution in Poland. However, she had counted that Austria’s disdain for constitutionalism would prevent her from coming to Poland’s aid in the event of a Russian attack, which appeared to be a great misjudgement. Nevertheless, the war plans that Russia went to war with seemed to assume that Austria would join any conflict. The Russian army was split into three parts. The largest group, located in the south, was commanded by the famous Alexander Suvorov, and numbered some 150,000 men. This force was to drive through Poland’s southern flank and prevent Austrian interference with the Russian invasion. The other two armies were located near Minsk under the command of Nikolai Repnin, and near Sigulda under the command of Kirill Gorchakov. They were to move briskly through Poland, defeating her armies before a response by the other great powers could be organized.


There were no Polish forces to challenge them at the border. The Polish army was outnumbered 6-1 by the Russians, and had no hope of surviving without foreign intervention. Nevertheless, Russia’s naked aggression galvanized public opinion in Poland, and alongside the proclamation of the Constitution gave the Polish king enough support to call for a mass conscription. In the summer of 1791 alone, this brought 100,000 men into the Polish army, though these troops would not be combat ready for some time. These conscripts would be of little avail to the regular army though, which set itself on retreating to a defensive line along the Vistula River. This was a foolhardy strategy, as Poland did not have the numbers to secure a line of over 600 kilometres. Nevertheless, it was necessary for the Polish army to proclaim that there was a greater strategy behind the retreat than hoping for foreign intervention.


The first engagement of the war came at Lida. The Russian army under Nikolai Repnin had been quicker than expected, taking only twenty days to catch up to the small Polish army of around 10,000 men under Pavel Kossakowski. The Poles were outnumbered almost 8-1, and faced almost certain annihilation if the Russians caught up with them. With the Russians marching almost 10km a day to the 7km of the Poles, this seemed like a distinct possibility. Kossakowski decided to leave a regiment of foot behind to try and delay the advance of the Russians as much as he could. The leader of this seemingly doomed regiment was a Polish gentlemen named Andrzej Wiśniewski. He had joined the army only a few years before, but had been an observer of the French army. He fortified the town of Lida and entrenched his troops there for what was sure to be a hard battle.


However, Wiśniewski’s defence was to be made easier by a number of key Russian mistakes. The Russians, in their haste to do battle, had left much of their artillery behind due to the Rasputitsa mud. The Russian commander who Wiśniewski would face was inexperienced and hot-headed, Fyodor Tolstoy. His diaries reveal a man who was obsessed with the idea of gaining military glory by being the first to defeat the Poles. In doing so, he neglected proper reconnaissance of the Polish position at Lida. He also declined to wait for reinforcements, deciding to march against the Poles with 3000 men, confident that these numbers would crush the resistance of the famously weak Poles.


It was the Russian skirmishers who first saw first-hand the effectiveness of the Polish defences. Even those armed with rifles found it very difficult to score casualties, with the Polish fire being unsurpressed. Corporal Vladimir Litowski, one of the skirmishers involved in the first part of the battle later wrote that “Our fire seemed to have no effect on the Poles. We could barely see them, and took to shooting into the smoke produced by their musket fire. I would have been surprised if we had killed more than ten men in that first attack”. The Russians who had been involved in the skirmishing passed along their concerns about the strength of the Polish defence, though this was ignored by Tolstoy, who reasoned that a determined attack by storm columns of infantry would break the Polish defenders.


The attack was launched at around 2 o’clock in the afternoon. Around 2000 Russians, arranged into the famous “storm columns” marched for the town of Lida. They charged toward the Polish infantry but were hit rifle and musket fire, as well as devastating case shot from the few Polish cannons left behind by the main army. The Russians kept advancing, but the advance stalled close to the Polish lines as the hail of fire became too thick even for the determined Russian forces. The Russian infantry stopped advancing, instead trying to take cover however best they could. Those further behind the front lines began to withdraw, seeing that there was little hope to reach the Polish lines. Russian officers tried to persuade their troops back into the fight, though with no artillery support and not enough troops to flank the Polish position, they fell back steadily. The attack was renewed once again as more Russian troops filtered into the area, though the Poles were successful in repulsing these attacks. At the end of the day, the Poles had lost 85 men dead, 169 wounded, but this paled compared to the heavy Russian casualties. Over 300 men had been killed with a similar amount wounded and missing.


This was a disappointing start to the Russian war, and seemed to suggest that Russian shock tactics would be no match for well drilled infantry. The Poles vacated the town of Lida during the night, having successfully knocked the wind out of the Russian advance. Wiśniewski was hailed as a hero when he caught up to the main army under Kossakowski, and he received a promotion. Tolstoy on the other hand was dismissed for losing a battle that should have been won handily by the Russian forces. Repnin called for a halt around Lida to consolidate his forces and bring the artillery up. He took steps to ensure that commanders would not be so quick to attack well-prepared positions without artillery again, but his prestige had been hit nonetheless. He would resume the offensive in July, but by then the war would start to take a turn away from being a quick conquest against a week opponent.


Suvorov’s army in the south had more success, taking Lvov with minimal casualties. His task was now to hook down into the rest of Galicia and make for the Polish fortress of Przemysl, ensuring that Austrian aid could not come to the Poles were they to intervene in the conflict. However, the Austrians declared war on Russia on the 18th of July, bucking Russian expectations that their armies would not be ready until late in August. Austrian troops began moving into Poland a day later, and an Austrian force of 20,000 men joined 15,000 Poles at Przemysl. Dominated by a modern star fort, the town would be extremely difficult for Suvorov to take, even with the numbers at his disposal. The siege of Przemysl would draw out for six weeks, quick by the standards of a siege but still painfully slow for the army that was supposed to knock Poland out of the war before the Austrians and Saxons could invade Russia’s Prussian allies.


Indeed, the spread of the war seemed to compromise Russia’s invasion of Poland greatly. Sweden’s declaration of war had meant that some troops had to be taken out of Poland to defend Russia’s northern flank, and Austria’s declaration of war promised to equalise numbers in Poland before long. Russia’s hope was that Austria would focus on Prussia in the first part of the war, leaving Russia free to knock Poland out of the war before her hundred thousand conscripted troops could be thrown into the balance. Russia also began to increase conscription within her own borders, as Catherine was determined to be prepared if the war became a more drawn-out struggle. Suvorov assured her after the fall of Przemysl that a decisive battle could keep Austria from helping the Poles to a significant degree. With the news that an Austrian army of 71,000 under Field Marshall Kolowrat was on its way to Tarnow, Suvorov saw the opportunity to keep the Austrians out of Poland for the time being.


In a dizzying 19 day march from Przemysl, Suvorov and 96,000 of his men caught the Austrians at Pleśna. The Russians were exhausted from months of forced marches and campaigning, but spirits were high. Suvorov was widely believed to be an invincible commander, having been defeated only once so far in his long career. This time, Russian battlefield tactics worked as intended, with the initial skirmishers targeting officers and weakening the cohesion of the Austrian battle lines. The coordination of the Russian infantry and artillery in the battle was disconcerting to say the least. Archduke Franz, who served as a brigadier in the battle noted that “almost as soon as the Russian artillery had finished ripping great holes in our battle lines, Russian infantry appeared, firing one volley and charging into our disordered lines with a great brutal strength”. On their right flank, the Austrians had more success, with excellent gunnery on the part of the Austrians managing the keep the Russian artillery back. Nevertheless, the Austrian army suffered a significant defeat at Pleśna. The 71,000 Austrian soldiers at the beginning of the battle had been reduced to around 53,000 effectives. The Austrians reeled back across the border, allowing Suvorov to now march north toward Warsaw.

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At Warsaw, around 37,000 Poles, 44,000 Austrians and 8000 Swedes prepared the last ditch defence of Poland’s territories. They were assailed by a force of around 140,000 Russians, a truly frightening number. The Russians advanced from two separate directions under Suvorov and Repnin, intending to converge near on the outnumbered allied forces. The prospects for the allies did not look positive, as they were heavily outnumbered and if they were defeated at Warsaw, the Russians would be free to break through to their beleaguered Prussian allies. The first shots of the battle were fired in the village of Zabki as Russian forces under Repnin used the nearby forest to sneak upon the Polish forces in the town. The Poles were taken completely by surprise, and after the success of Russian skirmishers, a body of around 5000 Russians stormed the village, sending its 3500 Polish defenders to flight. Repnin’s forces were now close enough to Suvorov’s for their Cossack irregulars to meet each other.


Repnin now held his ground, and sent a contingent south to aid Suvorov’s assault on Wilanów, where the Polish King’s usual residence was. King Stanisław had already fled into the centre of Warsaw to rally his forces in the city itself, but the area still controlled the approaches to Warsaw from the South, and it was a crucial point for the defence of the city. Here, a mixed force of Poles and Austrians stood ready to defend the palace and its surroundings. Commanded by Kossakowski, this force gave a much better account of itself, holding the line throughout the afternoon, and ensuring that the Russians paid heavily for their gains. The Poles were finally forced out of the area at around 6 o’clock in the evening, retreating mostly in good order, unmolested by Cossack irregulars who had taken to looting the Polish palace. The Poles and Austrians left behind around 3800 dead and wounded at Wilanów, but had managed to inflict around 5200 casualties on the Russians. This admirable showing however, was not enough to safeguard the approaches to Warsaw. Warsaw was now mostly cut off from the rest of Poland, and 130,000 Russians stood ready to attack.


The second day of the Battle of Warsaw began successfully for the Russians once again. A spoiling attack against Suvorov’s forces was driven back, and Russian artillery pushed groups of Austrian and Polish defenders back toward the city. By noon, Suvorov’s forces had reached Mokotów, and were engaging in street fighting against scattered Polish defenders. The main body of the Polish army conducted a fighting retreat through the city’s outskirts. However, the battle took a turn for the unexpected in the afternoon as the Russian advance stalled. Austrian forces who had been massing to the west of Suvorov’s army hit him in the flank unexpectedly, and his forces reeled back to Wilanów. Suvorov’s army had suffered 9800 dead and wounded, and had actually lost ground. Repnin had more success, but by the evening his army too had been forced back to their starting positions. In light of the poor Austro-Polish performance the day before, this setback for the Russians was unexpected.


Among the Austro-Polish command, the situation was not a good one. The morale of the army had been boosted by the successes of the previous day, but they could not be repeated again. The army lost another 10,000 effectives, and was in danger of being bled dry. Debates continued until the night, but it was finally decided to retreat from Warsaw toward Łódź, and if needed, Austrian Silesia. Retreats planned so quickly rarely go smoothly, but the cautiousness of Repnin on the 27th of August helped the efforts of the allies greatly. While Suvorov attacked energetically, Repnin’s attacks were far more halting, with skirmishing kept up even when the situation was ripe for frontal attacks. This enabled Suvorov to capture much of the city, with Repnin resigning himself to areas on the east bank of the Vistula. The city had been captured by the evening but Suvorov had noted “Not many enemy captured or wounded. Bulk of enemy forces retreating to the West, will pursue in the morning”.


However, the Russian army was exhausted by this point. Months of forced marches and fighting had taken their toll, as had disease. Suvorov’s army the next day advanced only 5 kilometers, and in the following week, the Russians lost contact with the remnants of the Austro-Polish army. Warsaw had been won by the Russians, though the war was far from over. The Austrian forces had proven themselves to be less flexible and mobile than the Russians, but had nevertheless given a good account of themselves. Similarly, although few in number the Polish army appeared to have caught up to those of the great powers in terms of quality. The Russians now had two options open for them. They could either push on through Poznan to the Prussians, who were steadily losing ground to the Swedes and Austrians, or she could turn south and attempt an invasion of Hungary through the Carpathians to knock Austria out of the war. Having lost an estimated 90,000 men through combat, sickness or desertion in the past few months, the Russians no longer had the resources to do both.

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Author's Notes: Very text heavy and military focused. The rest of the Great Eastern War will likely not be covered in quite as much detail, but I wanted to try and create an impression as to how far military science has come along in Russia. Taking more than a few notes from the Persian Army's shock tactics, they've combined them with artillery in a way that is especially devastating in Eastern Europe. However, Russia has bitten off rather more than she can chew, and even if France is prevented from intervening to protect her Polish friends by her own internal troubles, Austria may find aid from elsewhere.

As always, comments and corrections are welcomed!
 
The second day of the Battle of Warsaw began successfully for the Russians once again. A spoiling attack against Suvorov’s forces was driven back, and Russian artillery pushed groups of Austrian and Polish defenders back toward the city. By noon, Suvorov’s forces had reached Mokotów, and were engaging in street fighting against scattered Polish defenders. The main body of the Polish army conducted a fighting retreat through the city’s outskirts. However, the battle took a turn for the unexpected in the afternoon as the Russian advance stalled. Austrian forces who had been massing to the west of Suvorov’s army hit him in the flank unexpectedly, and his forces reeled back to Wilanów. Suvorov’s army had suffered 9800 dead and wounded, and had actually lost ground. Repnin had more success, but by the evening his army too had been forced back to their starting positions. In light of the poor Austro-Polish performance the day before, this setback for the Russians was unexpected.


Among the Austro-Polish command, the situation was not a good one. The morale of the army had been boosted by the successes of the previous day, but they could not be repeated again. The army lost another 10,000 effectives, and was in danger of being bled dry. Debates continued until the night, but it was finally decided to retreat from Warsaw toward Łódź, and if needed, Austrian Silesia. Retreats planned so quickly rarely go smoothly, but the cautiousness of Repnin on the 27th of August helped the efforts of the allies greatly. While Suvorov attacked energetically, Repnin’s attacks were far more halting, with skirmishing kept up even when the situation was ripe for frontal attacks. This enabled Suvorov to capture much of the city, with Repnin resigning himself to areas on the east bank of the Vistula. The city had been captured by the evening but Suvorov had noted “Not many enemy captured or wounded. Bulk of enemy forces retreating to the West, will pursue in the morning”.


However, the Russian army was exhausted by this point. Months of forced marches and fighting had taken their toll, as had disease. Suvorov’s army the next day advanced only 5 kilometers, and in the following week, the Russians lost contact with the remnants of the Austro-Polish army. Warsaw had been won by the Russians, though the war was far from over. The Austrian forces had proven themselves to be less flexible and mobile than the Russians, but had nevertheless given a good account of themselves. Similarly, although few in number the Polish army appeared to have caught up to those of the great powers in terms of quality. The Russians now had two options open for them. They could either push on through Poznan to the Prussians, who were steadily losing ground to the Swedes and Austrians, or she could turn south and attempt an invasion of Hungary through the Carpathians to knock Austria out of the war. Having lost an estimated 90,000 men through combat, sickness or desertion in the past few months, the Russians no longer had the resources to do both.

I find it quite ironic how Russia is facing similar problems in Poland, that Napoleon suffered in OTL Russia.

Besides that revelation. The Russian Political and Diplomatic leadership would want to mount an invasion of Hungary since Warsaw is closer to the border of Austria than Prussia's, while the military leadership would want to sue for peace for having exhaust themselves to such an extent.
 
Is Gustavus III still in control of Sweden? I hope so, I've always liked the guy.
Unfortunately not. Due to the butterfly effect and what not, the current King of Sweden is Charles XIII (an ATL sibling of our own Charles XIII). He's steered Sweden on a less absolutist course than Gustavus III did in OTL, and the power structure of Sweden resembles that of the earlier part of Gustavus III's reign. Scandinavia is likely to get its own update after the end of the Great Eastern War.
I find it quite ironic how Russia is facing similar problems in Poland, that Napoleon suffered in OTL Russia.

Besides that revelation. The Russian Political and Diplomatic leadership would want to mount an invasion of Hungary since Warsaw is closer to the border of Austria than Prussia's, while the military leadership would want to sue for peace for having exhaust themselves to such an extent.
The strategic situation has looked better for the Russians, though they have two ways of improving their position. They occupy a large part of Poland, and the forces arrayed against them are not sufficient to force them out yet. If she pushes forward to the Prussians, she could ensure that the Prussian army is able to act in conjunction with her own, though the prospect of invading Hungary and knocking Austria out of the war altogether may be a more attractive position. In the end, Catherine trusts the judgement of Suvorov and the military and is likely to take their concerns into consideration.
Excellent update, I hope Poland somehow survives!
I wouldn't count dear little Poland out just yet, even if things aren't looking too good for her.
 
Middle East and East Africa - Late 18th Century
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Gerhard Schneider; Osman's Children - A History of the Ottoman Empire


The Centralisation Efforts of Ahmed IV

Ahmed IV of the Ottoman Empire had inherited a territory barely worth the name of Empire. It had largely shrunk to borders resembling those of Basil II’s Byzantine Empire, and was increasingly falling behind the world around her. Despite the best efforts of his predecessors, the Ottoman Empire had lost huge territories in all directions. The defeats of the 18th century convinced even reactionary elements of Ottoman Society that something was horribly amiss. Mustafa had confronted the obstructionist Janissary Corps and had begun training a new army which operated along European lines. He had hired experts from France and Prussia to train the force, and now at least had the power to prevent the further loss of territory to his own vassals. However, he had died leaving the Balkans dominated by powerful Beys who clung to their existing privileges. This was a situation that Ahmed could not abide by.


The size of the Ordu-I Cedid had increased to around 40,000 by the beginning of his reign. An impressive force, but still miniscule by European standards. In order to fund the growth of the army, more revenue was needed. In the course of the late 16th and 17th centuries, the Ottoman Empire had undergone a process of decentralisation, with regional governors and notables taking on more of the responsibilities of government, as well as the revenue-raising rights that came with it. By 1750, this had resulted in a situation where the Ottoman Empire with a population similar to that of France’s had around one twentieth its revenue. With centralised states in the form of Persia and its European neighbours seemingly pointing the way forward, it was necessary for the Ottoman Empire to restore full control within its borders, administered by a bureaucracy directly accountable the Porte rather than to autonomous governors.


In order to focus on this task, the Ottomans turned inward from the world as much as they could. They were able to take advantage of conflict between the Russians and the Austrians to focus on their internal reforms. The Ulema approved of this self-reliant approach for security, rather than that which openly allied with Christian powers for defence against other Christian powers. Able to unite the educated classes around his program of reform, Ahmed rebuffed offers of alliance from the Austrians prior to the Great Eastern War and kept a neutral course throughout the conflict. While Europe engaged in perhaps the bloodiest conflict in history up to that point, the Ottoman Sultan was able to remove the last of the internal opposition. While areas such as Silistra and Epirus were brought relatively easily into the control of the Porte, Bosnia and Serbia were different.


The rulers of both areas, Ali Osman Pasha and Hassan Pasha both signed pacts with each other to defend themselves against the encroachment of the Sultan. Both decided to hedge their bets on promising greater liberties for their Christian subjects in return for greater liberties, and played on the concerns of local Muslim notables about the growth of central control. These preparations, as well as the difficult terrain of the provinces meant that the war fought to restore control the provinces was a long, grinding war of attrition. The provinces were devastated by their villages and towns changing hands between the Pashas and the forces of the Sultan, and the Christian populations of the provinces suffered acutely due to the cruelty of the soldiery. All in all, an estimated 200,000 people died in the Serbian and Bosnian conflicts of the late 18th century. Although the Sultan had brought them under his unquestioned control, they were depopulated and ravaged by ten years of war.


By the dawn of the 19th century, the Ottoman Empire was more centralised now than at any point since the 16th century. Ahmed IV’s ministers were in unquestioned control of the country, as regional Beys and notables had been curbed. Despite this, the Ottoman Empire was a shadow of its former self. Excluding the vassal states of Crimea, Wallachia and Moldovia, the Empire numbered some 16 million inhabitants, around half the figure of 1700. She had lost rich agricultural areas such as Egypt and Iraq, and appeared a pale shadow of her neighbours Austria, Russia and Persia, all of which seemed to be much larger and richer than herself. Ahmed IV died in 1806, leaving an Empire that appeared little at risk from the internal struggles which had resulted in her losing her valuable Syrian and Egyptian provinces. Despite this, the future of the shrunken Ottoman State appeared to be in question, as the Great Eastern War in Europe had ended and Russia once again began to look south rather than west in search of new land.

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Khulood al-Shuwaikh; The Story of the Arab People

The Latter Mamluks


Hopes that a change in the status of Egypt would lead to economic and social change were not realised even after the Persian-brokered agreement that ended the conflict between Ali Bey and the Ottomans. Ali Bey’s new state resembled that of the old Mamluk Sultanate on a map, and there were a number of aspects of that state that the new Mamluk Sultanate took on. This was not to be a state ruled by Egyptians or any other Arabs, but rather by Turkish speaking Mamluks from the Caucasus, as Ali Bey himself was. In celebration of his new status as Sultan, Ali Bey constructed a great mosque and palace complex for himself on the Cairo Citadel. Rather than centralising administration in a similar fashion to Persia, Ali Bey preferred to grant Iqta land holdings to those who had supported him against the Ottoman Sultan.


Egypt saw a great deal of economic change in the late 18th century, though this was rarely due to the actions of the government. Like the Ottoman Empire, Egypt found herself increasingly integrated into the “Greater European” economy. Artisanal textile industries in Cairo and Damascus found themselves increasingly in competition with cheaper textiles from Europe, especially with the advent of industrialisation in Great Britain. In return, the raw materials of Egypt such as cotton and sugar were in demand, though again they had to compete with often cheaper goods coming from European colonies in the Americas. The population of Egypt was stagnant for much of this period as wages steadily declined. As of yet, there were few attempts on the part of the government to intervene in the economy, and government funding of irrigation projects as seen in Persia was almost entirely absent in Mamluk Egypt.


Despite the gloomy social and economic picture in late 18th century Egypt though, the arts saw a renaissance. Between 1765 and 1816, 63 mosques were built throughout Egypt and Syria by the Mamluk Sultans. A string of Sultans left their marks architecturally, with baths, bridges, markets and mosques all being commissioned by the Sultans. These building projects were one of the main concerns of the rulers, besides the maintenance of the army. In addition to this, literature saw something of a revival in interest with the spread of the printing press. Although literacy rates were appallingly low, the circulation of news pamphlets as well as religious treatises and works of fiction steadily increased throughout the end of the 18th century. There was little appetite for European novels at the time, though a few scientific works were translated into Arabic and could be found in public libraries. Despite the previous impression of decay in 18th century Egypt, it can be seen that there was in fact an intellectual flowering, even if it was mitigated by decaying economic circumstances within the country.


The foreign policy of Mamluk Egypt tended to be oriented toward Arabia. Unwilling to start a war with the Persians or the Ottomans, Ali Bey’s successor, Abd-al Karim turned his eyes south toward Yemen. Yemen had experienced a period of great prosperity in the early part of the 18th century when she had a monopoly on coffee production, but as production moved elsewhere the income of the country steeply declined. Nevertheless, as the most fertile area of the Arabian Peninsula, there was still wealth enough to interest the Mamluk Sultan, eager for a diversion for his restive Mamluk aristocracy. However, the first Mamluk invasion of Yemen, led by a Circassian by the name of Murat was a complete failure. The victorious Zaidi Imam had 3000 Mamluk prisoners paraded in Sana’a before he sold them into slavery. The second invasion, led by Sultan Abd-al Karim himself had more luck though, and Sana’a was conquered in 1786.


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Brian Harrison; Africa - A History

The Rise of Mombasa

The Omani Empire in East Africa had ended almost as soon as it had begun. Although she had expelled the Portuguese from the cities of Zanzibar and the East African coast by 1730, Oman itself was threatened by Persia only a decade later, and found itself a part of Nader Shah’s revived Persian Empire. Naturally, with such a shock at home, the Omani presence in East Africa began to flounder, but rather than being replaced once again by the Portuguese, the cities of the East African coastline once again asserted themselves, and once again East Africa became dominated by a chain of city states and Sultanates stretching from Mogadishu to Portuguese Mozambique.


Of all these states, it was Mombasa that rose to become the hegemonic power in the 18th century. Muhammad Khamis, a notable landholder who had profited under Omani rule gained the loyalty of the small garrison there, and by 1750 had declared himself as the Sultan of Mombasa. Through a mixture of diplomatic dealings, economic pressure and military action he campaigned up and down the coast of East Africa, bringing many cities and Sultanates into a loose alliance with each other, with Mombasa acting as the “first amongst equals”. With stability established, the East African coast could now profit from the increase in Indian Ocean trade seen in the latter part of the 18th century. As areas such as Bengal and Iran looked to the Indian Ocean Basin for luxury goods, the cities of East Africa were happy to oblige. Slaves, cloves and ivory left ports on the East African coast and ended in warehouses in Muscat, Calcutta and Basra, ready for transport to growing internal markets.


However, despite the growth in trade, the foundation of Mombasa’s power remained fairly weak. The Sultanate itself was less an institution, and more a personal extension of the Sultan. There were few challenges to Muhammad Khamis following the extension of his influence over East Africa, though this was due to the force of his personality more than any other bonds. The foundation of his power were the alliances he had built up with other landowners and strongmen, as well as his own extensive landholdings. However, the elites of the Swahili coast were well aware that they were likely to be more prosperous as long as the peace was kept. Thus, among the elite of the coast, a kind of consensus and shared experience in the form of their language, their religion and increasingly, other elements of their culture. This system encouraged peace and prosperity for the time being, though would prove to be unstable in the face of future crises.


The increase in prosperity in the cities of East Africa led to a great flowering of Swahili culture. The first examples of a written Swahili language come from the early 18th century in the period of rule by Oman, but by the late 18th century a number of Swahili folk tales and other types of literature had been written down. A small number of scientific treatises were translated from Arabic. Although there was little in the way of original scientific research, it is thought that many of the major advances known in the Islamic world were now known by educated men in the Swahili cities of East Africa. This reflected a general integration of knowledge in much of the Islamic World in the 18th century, as trade links increased between coastal areas. This resulted in cities such as Mombasa becoming more cosmopolitan than ever before, as one could find Arabs, Gujaratis, Bengalis and even a few Malays resident in the cities.


The growth of the slave trade produced a great amount of misery in the 18th and 19th centuries, and the growth in prosperity in Persia in particular increased the demand for slaves from the East African interior. Talented Swahili bootleggers from the coast who desired riches made their way into the interior of Africa, sometimes capturing thousands of slaves in a single raid. The gunpowder weaponry used by the Swahilis made short work of resistance, and the trade in human beings made many an ambitious freebooter a very rich man. In the second half of the 18th century, hundreds of thousands were shipped out of the ports of East Africa, facing lives of servitude or death.
 

Deleted member 67076

Wow, you've kickstarted the Islamization of interior East Africa almost a century ahead of time. Additionally, the introduction of slave raiders means a diffusion of technologies and a period of intense state building among the Great Lakes kingdoms to obtain as many luxury goods and technologies from the Muslim coast. Lots of exciting changes.

Assuming no colonial interruptions, I'd expect much of the Great Lakes to become at least nominally Muslim by 1900.
 
The growth of the slave trade produced a great amount of misery in the 18th and 19th centuries, and the growth in prosperity in Persia in particular increased the demand for slaves from the East African interior. Talented Swahili bootleggers from the coast who desired riches made their way into the interior of Africa, sometimes capturing thousands of slaves in a single raid. The gunpowder weaponry used by the Swahilis made short work of resistance, and the trade in human beings made many an ambitious freebooter a very rich man. In the second half of the 18th century, hundreds of thousands were shipped out of the ports of East Africa, facing lives of servitude or death.

Although slavery is bad. The lines between slavery and freedom are very blurry in the religion of Islam when compared to Christian nations, especially since one can earn their freedom by converting to Islam and have a good track record of service.
 
I wonder how long the Mamluk caste can continue ruling over such a massive Arab population? The neo-feudal nature of the expanded Egyptian state doesn't help either.
 
Wow, you've kickstarted the Islamization of interior East Africa almost a century ahead of time. Additionally, the introduction of slave raiders means a diffusion of technologies and a period of intense state building among the Great Lakes kingdoms to obtain as many luxury goods and technologies from the Muslim coast. Lots of exciting changes.

Assuming no colonial interruptions, I'd expect much of the Great Lakes to become at least nominally Muslim by 1900.
East Africa is going to be waaay different because of the earlier connection of the Great Lakes region to the rest of the world. Certainly Islam in East Africa will have a larger head start over Christianity, which will almost certainly have effects in the future. And indeed, the diffusion of technology hasn't only been changed in East Africa, as we will see soon enough.

Colonialism may look very different indeed, but it all depends on what happens in Europe. If European wars are a greater concern for European powers, they are more likely to reign in their subordinates overseas, and we may see fewer freebooters than we did in OTL. Only time will tell really.
Although slavery is bad. The lines between slavery and freedom are very blurry in the religion of Islam when compared to Christian nations, especially since one can earn their freedom by converting to Islam and have a good track record of service.
Slavery in the Islamic world is quite complicated indeed. While some slaves (such as the Zanj, or those who worked the salt mines in the Sahara) lived a life every bit as brutal and dehumanizing as those in the Caribbean, many slaves found more comfortable roles, and unlike in the Western World, slaves themselves could reach the very pinnacle of power. This isn't to sugarcoat the nature of slavery in the Islamic world but to try and examine things in a bit more detail of course.
I wonder how long the Mamluk caste can continue ruling over such a massive Arab population? The neo-feudal nature of the expanded Egyptian state doesn't help either.
If slavery in the Caucasus is caused, it would certainly have interesting effects on the recruitment of Mamluks in Egypt. Reform would almost certainly have to come to the Egyptian state even without a kind of nationalist revival amongst the Arabs of Egypt.
 
Great Eastern War - Part Two
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Maurizio Carbone: The First Modern Conflict in History - The Great Eastern War

The Continuation of the War

Russian opinion was split in the first winter of the Great Eastern War. They had occupied much of Poland, but the Austrians refused to back down in their defense of Poland, and Russia’s allies in Prussia were hard pressed by the Swedes, Austrians and Saxons. After fierce debate and a public rift between the two main Russian commanders, Suvorov and Repnin, the Russians decided to push westwards onto Poznan and Prussia rather than south into Galicia and Hungary. Russia felt that preserving her ally’s army was more important than the mere chance of knocking Austria out of the war. Pushing through to Poznan would also have the welcome side effect of surrounding the 20,000 Polish and Austrian soldiers who were holding the town of Danzig. By March 1792, Russia had made good much of her losses in the previous year and prepared two armies of experienced and battle hardened soldiers to implement a plan devised by Suvorov and Repnin.


Repnin and 100,000 men would march to the north of Danzig, close enough to provide support to Suvorov’s army if needed, but would then hook north and retake Pomerania, which had been occupied by Allied troops since the autumn of 1791. Suvorov’s army would march for Poznan, take the town and then march onwards to Berlin. Then with their numbers augmented by the Prussians, the armies would launch invasions of Saxony and Bohemia, hopefully forcing both powers out of the war and leaving Sweden and Poland defenceless. However, this plan failed to take into account the fact that the resistance encountered was likely to be stronger than the year before. The Allied powers had begun recruiting new soldiers and had more men to put into the field. Whereas before the Russo-Prussian forces had outnumbered those of the allies by around 60,000 in 1791, their numbers were roughly equal in 1792. Nevertheless, the Russian forces maintained a qualitative advantage due to their emphasis on shock tactics and great use of mobile artillery.


The Russians marched from Łódź on the 16th of May, and by the end of the month had reached Poznan. Although the defenders of Poznan were outnumbered 2-1 by the Russians, they nevertheless held the Russians off for two days of combat and inflicted around 10,000 casualties on Suvorov’s army. Although the Russians had managed to kill and capture a similar number of Poles and Austrians, the Russian advance was stalled until the middle of June, at which point the Russians marched for Berlin with no Allied armies between them and the city. Meanwhile, Repnin had already advanced into Pomerania, and quickly overwhelmed the Allied forces in the area. The capture of the Northern Army of Poland and their Austrian comrades brought the number of Allied prisoners to around 50,000, a startling figure.


The arrival of Suvorov and the Russians into Berlin was a welcome sight. The Prussian King Frederick William held a parade of Prussian and Russian forces in the city, and the two allies now confirmed their earlier plans. However, by this point it was already July, and the Austrians and Saxons were well prepared for what was to come. The Prussians volunteered to send the bulk of their army (78,000 men) at the Saxons to repeat their lightning offensive of the Seven Years War, while Suvorov and his 114,000 Russians would press into Silesia and Bohemia. Combined with a Russian offensive into Finland, it was hoped that this would see the Allies acquiesce to the demands of the Russians and Prussians, which had by now extended to a total partition of Poland and the return of Silesia to the Prussians who had lost the area decades before.


However, the Prussians received a nasty shock at the Battle of Torgau, when two Prussian divisions blundered into the whole Saxon army led by the famous Prince Erich Wettin. In a single afternoon, the Saxons killed, wounded and captured 15,000 Prussians. This weakened the Prussian advance fatally, and although the Prussians advanced toward Leipzig, they were defeated decisively at the battle of Leipzig by an Austro-Saxon force led by Prince Erich. The Saxon victories electrified the Allied side, and brought generous British subsidies to Saxony, who now began to be saw as the third major German power. The Saxons now used the breathing space gained by the victories to embark on a reform of the army along Russian lines. Artillery was separated from infantry units, the enlarged Saxon army was split into two corps, self-sufficient units that nevertheless remained no more than a day’s march from one another.


The Russians had no more luck against the Austrians. Although they had won a number of early engagements, they had been thrown out of Silesia by the end of September, though they had inflicted a number of great losses upon the Austrians. About the only good news for the Russo-Prussian forces was that the great Swedish fortress of Lovisa had fallen to the Russians in October. The bad run of campaigning in the latter part of 1792 was compounded by the formal British entry into the war on the 29th of November, 1792. The Allies had now halted the Russian advance, and had begun the process of absorbing the impressive tactical lessons that the Russians had imparted. With the entry of the British, Russia’s only hope was to enlist the help of anti-British and anti-Austrian powers within Europe. However, these were limited. France was embroiled in a Civil War, Spain had declared that it had no interest in the conflict. In the end, Russia’s overtures were heard only in Denmark, who was attracted by the prospect of gains against the Swedes. Denmark made a solemn promise to intervene in the conflict before 1794.


However, this promise had been known about by Austrian agents, who subsequently passed along the information to the British. The British made plans for a quick destruction of the Danish fleet, as well as the detachment of Norway from Denmark which Britain hoped would play as an agent of British interests in Scandinavia. The speed of Britain’s assault on Denmark was astounding. A pre-emptive declaration of War was made on the 2nd of June, and by September much of Denmark outside the Jutland Peninsula and Copenhagen was held by the British. The Danes signed the Convention of Aarhus in October, recognizing Norway as a separate kingdom and ceding control of Iceland and the Faroe Islands to Norway, as well as ceding control of the Danish Virgin Islands to Britain. The humiliation of this defeat coloured the Danish psyche for decades to come, and the refusal of Sweden to participate in the pre-emptive strike against Denmark led to a rise of esteem amongst the Danes for their erstwhile rivals.


On the European mainland, 1793 was a period of recovery for the Allies. The Saxons pushed the Prussian forces out of Saxony altogether, and pushed into Brandenburg. The Austrians defeated the exhausted Russians at Lüben, Suvorov’s first major failure on the field. However, this was countered by Russian success in Galicia, where they succeeded in pushing the Austrians under Schwarzenberg back to the Carpathians. By the end of the year, although the strategic balance had changed little, the armies were now swelling due to the number of new recruits who had been pressed into service. The Russian army, which had numbered around 400,000 at the beginning of the war, now numbered some 600,000, stretched along a front from Northern Finland to Stanisławów. They were joined by around 125,000 Prussians. The Allies had similarly increased their numbers, and in total numbered around 620,000. The advantage of numbers still lay with the Russians and Prussians, though their forces were overstretched. Suvorov’s legend had been smashed at Lüben, though the wily old general still had a trick up his sleeve. The Russian plan for 1794 was a grandiose one that involved pushing the British off the continent by launching an invasion of Hannover. The Russians felt that with the British out of the war, the remaining Allies could be defeated in detail.


The Russians would see a great amount of success with this plan, though it did not have the intended effect. The Russians had early success in the campaign, pushing the Saxons from Magdeburg and into Leipzig. The Allies assumed that this was another attempt to roll up the Saxons, though they were surprised when a Russian blow against Dresden did not come. Instead, 150,000 Russians poured into Hannover, overwhelming the 50,000 British and Hanoverian soldiers in the area and pushing all the way to the North Sea. The British Government under the Earl of Coventry saw a challenge in Parliament following the disaster, though this was seen off by the wily Coventry. Instead, Coventry attempted to play on the fears of many German princes and encouraged the Austrian Emperor to invoke the Holy Roman Empire. A number of Catholic states heeded the call, including Bavaria, Nassau and Münster, which combined their armies into a force of around 50,000 to the south of Hanover.


By the beginning of 1795, the Great Eastern War showed no sign of ending. The Russians had pushed forward 1350 kilometres in search of victory but despite a number of great victories, was no closer to forcing the other great powers to accept the partition of Poland it had in mind. The Russian position was worsened by the sudden death of Catherine the Great in the February of 1795, who suffered a stroke whilst horse riding. The new Tsar, her grandson Peter, was young and inexperienced. There were worries about whether the Russian war effort would stay as focused with him at the helm, though he made the common sense decision of appointing Suvorov as the Generalissimo of all Russian forces on mainland Europe. Suvorov however, was running out of ideas of how to strike the final blow. Even the great Suvorov failed to see the great Allied offensive of 1795 coming though.

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Edit - Author's notes: The next update will be the last one focusing on the Great Eastern War, and will be something less of a blow by blow account of the war. Afterward the plan is for a few more updates to fill gaps and what not before the beginning of the 19th century cycle in earnest. If anyone does have any areas of the world in particular they would like to see covered, please do suggest something and I can slot it into an update soon.
 
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Love this update, great to finally see a partition the Dano-Norwegian kingdom that leaves the latter with the Faroes and Iceland. But obviously it's survival depends on the good graces of GB.

Is the Persian state promoting Farsi as a unifying language for it's diverse subjects?
 
Love this update, great to finally see a partition the Dano-Norwegian kingdom that leaves the latter with the Faroes and Iceland. But obviously it's survival depends on the good graces of GB.

Is the Persian state promoting Farsi as a unifying language for it's diverse subjects?
Britain does need to make sure that those places stays out of the hands of a nation that can be easily affected by Continental issues of course. It's likely that Norway will be very much in the British Sphere of influence.

Persia's relationship to Farsi is rather complicated. The Afsharids were of Turcoman stock of course, but Persian was was the language of the court and administration. Under the reign of Reza Shah Afshar, Persian was also seen as a way to break the independent mindedness of the various Turkmen people of Central Asia, which had been majority Turkic for the previous 800 years. To a large extent, alongside colonization by Persian speaking settlers, the linguistic region in the arable areas of Central Asia is starting to resemble what it did before the movements of the Turkic peoples. Languages such as Uzbek and Turkmen are increasingly the language of nomads rather than settled people in the region. However, the Oghuz Turkic language we know as Azeri is still going strong, and although there have been inroads in the Tabriz region, the majority of inhabitants in the area (with the exception of Kurds and Armenians of course) are Turkish speakers. Administration in the area is still in Persian however.
It looks obvious now that Prussia is gonna suffer the same fate as Denmark and Poland have soon.
The Miracle of the House of Brandenburg hasn't quite panned out. The question of course is whether Prussia sinks into total irrelevance or manages to hold its own into the 19th century. Certainly, while Austria is happy to see its Saxon allies grow stronger,she may be less keen on seeing a Saxony that may be able to challenge her supremacy in Germany. Prussia is unquestionably a second rate power now however.
This looks like an interesting TL. How is the Spanish Empire doing?
I'm glad to say I've already written up Spain's very own update! To make the long story short, although she suffers from many of the same issues that hobbled her in the 18th century (including the Bourbon reforms leading to unrest in the Americas), the fact that she won't have Bonaparte stomping all over her will likely change Spain a great deal in the coming century.
 
Great Eastern War - Part Three
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James Hamlin; Great Power Politics in Europe, 1700 to 2000


The End of the Great Eastern War

The year 1795 is often identified as the turning point in the Great Eastern War. Why is it then that the war continued for six more bloody years? Certainly, Russia’s willingness to use her almost bottomless well of manpower under Peter II was an explanation. It was only in 1797 that Russia’s army peaked at around 700,000 men after all. However, while Russia’s army steadily declined from that point onward as virtually all the easily recruitable manpower had been forced into the army, the size of the allied armies rose, with Austria’s reaching her peak of 400,000 only in 1801. These armies were phenomenal in size, dwarfing almost all that had gone before them anywhere else in the world. Only the enormous Qing Empire, whose population was more than twice that of Europe’s, could boast an army of a similar size.


These armies were expensive as well as numerous. The allied powers were able to recruit such large armies partially due to the aid of British subsidies, which were dependent on the advanced financial institutions that could be found in the city of London. But where did Russia get the money for its war effort? Credit from neutral powers such as the Dutch was a fraction of the money that the Allies got from Great Britain, and Russia’s own financial institutions were still small and undeveloped. Certainly in the first few years of the war, plunder secured by Russian troops made up a large part of shortfall in Russian finances. In the years 1794-1796 when fresh conquests began to peter out, the Russians accumulated three times the debt that they had done in the preceding three years. If the Russians had continued to borrow at that rate, the government would have almost certainly become bankrupt by 1798. How then did Russia keep on fighting until 1801?


The answer is that it was a number of factors that allowed Russia to raise the monies necessary to continue the war. She attempted to make the collection of wealth in occupied areas much more streamlined through the creation of puppet governments. Both the Kingdom of Lower Germany and Occupied Poland supplied a great deal in taxes and forced loans to the Russians. The great port of Hamburg suffered as the wealth of her merchants was drained to feed the rapacious Russian war machine. This was combined with taxes on both Russian nobility and peasantry, which was met by revolts on the part of the latter. Tsar Peter attempted to raise support amongst the nobility as speaking of the struggle as Russian Orthodoxy fighting for its right to exist in the face of a renewed and aggressive Catholic Europe.


Considering that the war had begun when the German-born Catherine the Great launched an aggressive invasion against her Polish neighbour, the paradigm as Russia as fundamentally different, as well as a victim of the designs of the Austrians was risible to many public figures in areas such as Britain, where Burke had penned a satirical essay shortly before his death wondering just how a country which discriminated heavily against its Catholic population would be part of a great Catholic conspiracy against Russia. Despite the hypocrisy of the Russian government’s paradigm, it succeeded in generating a level of patriotism and support for the war effort, which was combined with a swift switch for the primary language of the Russian aristocracy from French to Russian. Whereas Russian was considered a “Peasant Language” by well-heeled Russians in 1791, it was considered in poor taste for a Russian aristocrat to conduct his business in French by the end of the war. It was one of the most visible signs of a rising Russian nationalism in the 19th century.


It was not the only paradigm shift that had taken place in Russia however. The successful allied offensives of 1795 and 1796 took back a good portion of Southern Poland and forced the Russians to pull most of their forces back through Europe. Under the stresses and strains of the deteriorating situation, Russia’s great Generalissimo Suvorov died in the January of 1797. This left the Russian command now split between Repnin, who favoured a more offensive approach, and Kutuzov, who wanted to assume a more defensive footing. Kutuzov was largely sidelined after the successful offensive into Galicia in the summer of 1797, which saw the Austrian army in Poland thrown back across the Carpathians. Repnin now intended to strike into Hungary the following year and force Austria out of the war. However, instead what 1798 saw was a surprise offensive on the part of the Austrians. Repnin had assumed that the Austrian army had been rendered unfit, but buttressed by British subsidies and arms, the Austrian army caught the ill-prepared Russians in a spoiling attack near Tarnow. The Russian army reeled back to Krakow, which now left the Russian army in danger of being cut off from its homeland.


Repnin was sent to an ignominious retirement and Kutuzov was named Generalissimo of the Russian forces. Kutuzov’s army fought a brilliant retreat, beating off an Austrian attempt to cut them off and by the autumn of 1798, the Russian army had retreated back to Warsaw. This had left Prussia and the client state of Lower Germany to their fates, but had preserved the Russian army from total annihilation. It is unclear when exactly Russian war aims changed, but is likely by this point that the Russians had resolved not for domination of all Poland, but for control of a section of it. Kutuzov prepared to defend Russian occupied Poland in the following year.


However, 1799 would prove to be a decisive year in Germany. The Austrians and British co-ordinated a war strategy, and agreed that the Russian presence in Germany would have to be removed before any offensive action against Kutuzov’s main army was to be undertaken. The remains of the Hanoverian army, buttressed by a large British army was landed in Northern Germany, and marched against the weak resistance of Russian garrisons to take Hannover by the May of 1799. The Russian client state of “Lower Germany” was dissolved and the larger pre-war states were declared to have their territory restored to them, though proper control was not restored until later on in the year. With the Russian client now gone, Prussia stood alone with around 100,000 men against 50,000 Saxons, 20,000 Swedes, 70,000 British and Hanoverians and around 20,000 men from the smaller German states. The Prussians were overwhelmed, and Berlin was occupied on the 18th of November.


Frederick William, face with the destruction of his Kingdom, sued for peace the following December, leaving Russia alone against a large coalition of enemies. Kutuzov was left with around 420,000 men in Poland, but these were arrayed against allied forces of around 700,000. The Russian forward defence army managed to hold the British back at Gniezno. The Southern Russian Army was beaten at Przemyśl and was forced back to Lvov, where it beat off a further Austrian attack. However, this still meant that an Austrian army under the command of the Archduke Leopold was able to join the Allied armies gathering near Kutuzov at Warsaw. Kutuzov had 185,000 men in the city, but the allies had built up a force of almost 300,000. Kutuzov begged the Tsar to allow a retreat, but even the pragmatic Peter could not countenance giving up the greatest prize in Poland without a fight. For the sake of honour, the Russians fought the cataclysmic Second Battle of Warsaw.


It was a strange battle, curiously unlike the First Battle of Warsaw. Many of the contested areas were curiously devoid of infantry, as the artillery of the Allies and Russians fought furious duals throughout the first and second days of the battle. However, on the third and fourth days, the Allied infantry began to make headway in the city, breaking through the barricades of the Russians and defeating the Russians decisively. The defeat forced Kutuzov and what was left of his army to retreat. Out of the 185,000 Russians who had been there on the 5th of July, only 42,000 left Warsaw in any semblance of order. The Russian army had been decisively defeated in Poland, and now looked as if it would be pushed back into Russia.


The situation for the Russians was a grim one. The balance of forces was now decisively in the favour of the Allies. She was on the verge of bankruptcy and appeared as if she would be forced out of all the gains she had made. Her only saving grace was that the allies were in as bad a position as her. Britain was increasingly focused on her troubles in North America, as well as her war in India against the Sultan of Mysore. Saxony, having finally assured her security vis-à-vis her Prussian rival wanted only to see that Poland’s independence was preserved in some fashion. It was only Austria and Sweden who wanted to press on and see Russia’s previous annexations against Poland reversed. By the spring of 1801, the powers were exhausted, and convened in Berlin to sign the “Treaty of Berlin”, which was described by the British Prime Minister the Earl of Derby as ‘nothing more than a glorified ceasefire, which does not a single thing to allay any grievance on the part of any of the powers in question’.


Certainly, the hopes of those who wanted to see a reduction in militarisation in Europe would be dashed by the treaty. Poland was preserved, though the Russians gained some land from her. Russia, Britain, Austria and France, who had been neutral in the war, agreed to preserve Polish independence and territorial integrity. Sweden’s gains in the war had not been what was hoped, consisting of border rectifications in Finland and a reduction in Denmark’s power, though she was more secure than she had been in a while. Saxony had much to be pleased about, having secured land in Germany, but more importantly, having eclipsed her stronger Prussian rival in Germany to be the first of the Lesser German states. For her part, Austria had preserved the balance of power in Europe but it had come at a horrible cost, leaving the Empire near bankrupt and the army in a state of exhaustion.


However, it was in Russia that the effects of the war were most deeply felt. All aspects of Russian society had been affected by the war. Economically, Russia was broken, deeply in debt to Dutch and other European bankers, with her merchants also weakened from year’s isolation from markets in the rest of Europe. Socially, the Russian aristocracy looked less toward Western Europe as a cultural model and began looking at an idealised version of their own past. In a wave of popular sentiment, the Tsar Peter signed a decree aimed at curbing the worst excesses of Serfdom. It was also in strategic goals that Russia’s priorities shifted as she started to look to the south in the hopes of expansion rather than to the West. While Austria served as an effective shield to Russian expansionism in Eastern Europe, the declining Asian Empires seemed to offer more hope of wealth and glory to the Russian Tsars.

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Author's notes - I didn't want to drag out the Great Eastern War too much, as I would like to begin focusing more on cultural changes and economic changes as the 19th century begins to unfold. Nevertheless, it is quite important as the great "War of Attrition", one that France and the Mediterranean world has avoided. Austria is left as the greatest power in Central Europe, though she is as exhausted as the other powers are, and may well be vulnerable. Also, hurray for surviving Poland? A map is on the way for those who are interested of course.
 
Really interesting stuff, I am excited to see how Saxony utilizes its newfound influence
Unfortunately she is too small to carve out her own role as a great power, though she will undoubtedly be a big player in Germany in the 19th century. It is likely that Germany's fate will be decided from outside without a strong power to unite the country though.
Hooraaay for the survival of Poland! Take that Russia.
Mother Russia needs to expand the borders of the motherland though. ;)

It is more likely that Russia will look elsewhere for expansion though. What happens to Poland will be quite interesting as well, as she actually possesses a considerable population. If she manages to keep Austria on side, she may well look forward to a period of prosperity, ensuring that her government can move forward in terms of reforms.
But at what cost? BUT AT WHAT COST?!?! Prussia is gone!
(sobs silently in corner)
Prussia? Low energy losers! Sad!

More seriously, you can look at it as the candle that burns half as long burning twice as bright. Certainly, Prussia doesn't quite have the one-sided curb stomps of Jena and Auerstadt hanging over her. Prussia may well find life fairly comfortable as a second-rate power.
 
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