John Kerry won the 2004 election in a narrow race against President George W. Bush. The election was decided by the state of Ohio, which went for Kerry by less than 1%. What if Bush had carried Ohio and won a second term in 2004?
 
It's probably a foregone conclusion that you don't get President McCain in '08. Kerry got the blame for the recession in '08 and it doomed the democrats across the board.
 
Well it’d break the now-notorious ‘Dubya curse.’ We haven’t had a two-term President since Clinton and given the current unpopularity of President Romney that seems like it’ll continue in 2020.
 
Well it’d break the now-notorious ‘Dubya curse.’ We haven’t had a two-term President since Clinton and given the current unpopularity of President Romney that seems like it’ll continue in 2020.

But the economy is pretty good right now, and no Democrat seems to be a strong enough candidate to take on Romney. And after nearly 20 years of one term Presidents I think voters will want to maintain the status quo for once. There's speculation that former President Hillary Clinton will run for a second non consecutive term, having lost to Romney in 2016. IMO if she is nominated again the Democrats will lose.
 
One of the most scandalous things that the Bush 2004 campaign did was after Bush won the popular vote but lost in the Electoral College was to try to get the Ohio State Legislature to overturn the Kerry victory in that state and give the 20 electoral votes to Bush on the grounds that there was voted fraud in Cayahoga County (Cleveland).
The effort passed in the State House of Representatives but failed by three votes in the State Senate.
 
If Bush had won, then he would’ve taken the blame for the Housing Crisis in 2008. Instead, he capitalized on Kerry’s unpopularity and won election to a second non-consecutive term in 2008. As a result, he’s looked upon somewhat fondly after leaving office. He’s somewhat better than his father, more so domestically than foreign affairs.

I can’t see Hillary doing the same unless Romney screws up royally in his last two years.

OOC: We've already covered 2008 and the victor wasn't Dubya:

It's probably a foregone conclusion that you don't get President McCain in '08. Kerry got the blame for the recession in '08 and it doomed the democrats across the board.
 
It’s weird to see how we’ve had three one term Presidents. We haven’t seen a streak of Presidents like this since from Eisenhower to Reagan, where five Presidents served less than two terms.
 
In retrospect, might have been for the best for Bush to win in 04. Kerry wouldn't lost to McCain in 08, McCain wouldn't have passed away in September 10, and we wouldn't have had Palin running the show for almost three years. It's 2019, and President Brown is still cleaning up the mess that she made.
 
In retrospect, might have been for the best for Bush to win in 04. Kerry wouldn't lost to McCain in 08, McCain wouldn't have passed away in September 10, and we wouldn't have had Palin running the show for almost three years. It's 2019, and President Brown is still cleaning up the mess that she made.

OOC: We've already established that Romney is President:

Well it’d break the now-notorious ‘Dubya curse.’ We haven’t had a two-term President since Clinton and given the current unpopularity of President Romney that seems like it’ll continue in 2020.

But the economy is pretty good right now, and no Democrat seems to be a strong enough candidate to take on Romney. And after nearly 20 years of one term Presidents I think voters will want to maintain the status quo for once. There's speculation that former President Hillary Clinton will run for a second non consecutive term, having lost to Romney in 2016. IMO if she is nominated again the Democrats will lose.

OOC: Also, Palin wouldn't have been picked as VP if McCain hadn't been running against Obama. Romney and Tim Pawlenty were the other top choices. Both are far more likely to be McCain's VP than Palin, who would have no reason to be on the ticket in this ATL.
 
It's probably a foregone conclusion that you don't get President McCain in '08. Kerry got the blame for the recession in '08 and it doomed the democrats across the board.

And his VP Edwards' sex scandal damaged Kerry badly too. Altough even without Edwards acts Kerry probably would had lost the election.
 
And his VP Edwards' sex scandal damaged Kerry badly too. Altough even without Edwards acts Kerry probably would had lost the election.

I'm sure that Senator Barack Obama regrets taking Edwards' place on the ticket in 2008. Had Obama waited out 2008, he could have beaten Clinton in the 2012 primaries and defeated President McCain in the general election.
 
The best President since 2000 was Hillary Clinton. She wasn't perfect and like her husband couldn't keep her nose cleaned, but she set Romney up pretty nicely economically and started to right some of the wrongs McCain made abroad. Kerry was a lame duck from the start, McCain had the Iran and Syrian wars, and Romney is even more of an ass licker to the wealthy than Bush and Cheney and even less Principled to boot.
 
Kerry was a lame duck from the start,

On the other hand, Bush would have been a Republican President working with a Republican Congress. Although seeing what happened under President McCain, when Republicans tried to privatize Social Security in the midst of a recession, that might end up very badly. The "maverick" Republican John McCain shot down those efforts before they came to a House vote, but a traditional conservative like Bush might be more willing to gut the social safety net.
 
OOC: Elections so far, winner bolded
2004- (R) Bush-Cheney, (D) Kerry-Edwards
2008- (R) McCain-Pawlenty, (D) Kerry-Obama
2012- (R) McCain-Pawlenty, (D) Clinton-?
2016- (R) Romney-?, (D) Clinton-?
 
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OOC: Elections so far, winner bolded
2004- (R) Bush-Cheney, (D) Kerry-Edwards
2008- (R) McCain-Romney, (D) Kerry-Obama
2012- (R) McCain-Romney, (D) Clinton-?
2016- (R) Romney-?, (D) Clinton-?

OOC: Actually Clinton beat McCain in 2012. I don't think it's been established yet who was McCain's VP. But if the current President is Romney, then it's unlikely that Romney was McCain's VP. Tim Pawlenty is more likely, since Palin won't be picked in this ATL.
 
Also, had Bush won a second term, perhaps Supreme Court picks could have gone a different way. Since then, Presidents have replaced strong liberals or conservative Justices with ideological and judicial opposites. Kerry replaced William Rehnquist (a noted conservative), with Sidney Thomas (a strong liberal. McCain replaces Sandra Day O’Connor and John Paul Stevens with Janice Rogers Brown and Raymond Gruender, respectively. Clinton replaced David Souter and Antonin Scalia with Patricia Millet and David Barron. And Romney just recently replaced Anthony Kennedy with Amy Coney Barrett.

So as one can see, lots of shifts in ideological conposition. Had Bush won a second term, he would’ve been able to appoint two Supreme Court Justices (Sandra Day O’Connor most likely would've retired with a Republican in office). According to his former shortlist, his top choices were Samuel Alito and Priscilla Owen. Subsequently, a Democrat would’ve most likely won in 2008, and perhaps might’ve replaced Souter and Stevens with people who might shared their jurisprudence.

OOC: Opinion needed: would David Souter hold out for another four years and retire with a Democrat rather than with a Republican. I know he was getting sick of D.C.
 
Kerry would be a one term POTUS if the Great Recession hits as IOTL. You’ll get a GOP in 2008 but it’s not McCain. Could be Rudy or Romney.
 
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