CSA relations with Latin America

With a POD, where the CSA won the war around 1862-1863, and gains independence from the USA, where does it go?

The South IOTL had this idea, to conquer large swaths of Latin America, to create, the Golden Circle. But that could come later

The question is, what would the Confederate States of America relations be with Latin American countries, not limited to:
  • Empire of Brazil
  • Mexico
  • Haiti
  • Dominican Republic
  • Honduras
  • El Salvador
  • Guatemala
  • Nicaragua
  • Argentina
  • Uruguay
  • Colombia
  • Ecuador
  • Peru
  • Chile
  • Bolivia
  • Venezuela
  • Paraguay

    What would the CSA relations be with Latin America? Would it be cold, would their be alliances, or would the CSA outright try to conquer certain countries?
 

Ficboy

Banned
With a POD, where the CSA won the war around 1862-1863, and gains independence from the USA, where does it go?

The South IOTL had this idea, to conquer large swaths of Latin America, to create, the Golden Circle. But that could come later

The question is, what would the Confederate States of America relations be with Latin American countries, not limited to:
  • Empire of Brazil
  • Mexico
  • Haiti
  • Dominican Republic
  • Honduras
  • El Salvador
  • Guatemala
  • Nicaragua
  • Argentina
  • Uruguay
  • Colombia
  • Ecuador
  • Peru
  • Chile
  • Bolivia
  • Venezuela
  • Paraguay

    What would the CSA relations be with Latin America? Would it be cold, would their be alliances, or would the CSA outright try to conquer certain countries?
Latin America would be a point of interest for the Confederates given the idea of the Golden Circle which sought to create a slave empire across the Caribbean and South America. Most of the nations listed would be neutral or friendly while others would hate them.
 
Latin America would be a point of interest for the Confederates given the idea of the Golden Circle which sought to create a slave empire across the Caribbean and South America. Most of the nations listed would be neutral or friendly while others would hate them.
I think you're overestimating the number of countries that are going to end up preferring cooperation with a backwater slave state over the US, which already has well-established business interests in the region.
 

Ficboy

Banned
I think you're overestimating the number of countries that are going to end up preferring cooperation with a backwater slave state over the US, which already has well-established business interests in the region.
Well of course. I put neutral for some of the nations listed because they're aren't going to be hostile but not necessarily friendly either.
 
Both are slavocracies so would goes along fine.
And with the Confederacy winning the Civil War, slavery in Brazil would be vindicated so it would be relatively unlikely for the slaveholding coastal elites to abandon the Brazlian Empire and thus slavery likely wouldn't be abolished for at least a couple more decades. Same thing with Spain (Cuba and Puerto Rico). I envision all three countries getting along well enough with each other. As for the other nations, IDK,
 
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I think the likelihood of Confederate expansion into Latin America has been exaggerated. The British do not want either the USA or the CSA to dominate the region, and they have by far a greater Navy than either power. (For that matter the British could cooperate with either the USA or CSA to prevent the other North American power from dominating Latin America.)
 
Both are slavocracies so would goes along fine.
Not if the now-independent Confederates continue to seek territorial expansion.

Brazil was extremely wary of the US, because in the 1840s-1850s you had southerners openly advocating for the acquisition of land in Brazil by southern farmers, which, after Texas, is taken to mean(cannot be taken to mean anything else but) 'we want to take your lands for ourselves'. If this attitude doesn't change(it might, because the impulse for expansion was in part driven by the need to have more slave states), I would expect Brazil to grow closer to the United States, which already was the most important market for Brazilian coffee(and it wasn't southern farmers who were drinking it, it was the urban workers of the North).

As for both countries being slavocracies, the 1860s is the point where slavery comes to attack in Brazilian public opinion - the 1850 prohibition of the overseas slave traffic meant the only source of slaves(besides breeding, but Brazil didn't have specialized breeding slaves like the US South had) were the ones already in Brazil, and these were vaccuumed out by the coffee planters. If in the 1840s, owning a slave was a possibility for a middle-class artisan, in the 1860s, the demand from the coffee plantations had priced slaves out of the means of most people who weren't coffee planters. As the memories of owning slaves(and of the possibility of owning a slave) faded away from most of the population, support of slavery began falling out of favour from most of Brazilian society.
 
With a POD, where the CSA won the war around 1862-1863, and gains independence from the USA, where does it go?

The South IOTL had this idea, to conquer large swaths of Latin America, to create, the Golden Circle. But that could come later

The question is, what would the Confederate States of America relations be with Latin American countries, not limited to:
  • Empire of Brazil
  • Mexico
  • Haiti
  • Dominican Republic
  • Honduras
  • El Salvador
  • Guatemala
  • Nicaragua
  • Argentina
  • Uruguay
  • Colombia
  • Ecuador
  • Peru
  • Chile
  • Bolivia
  • Venezuela
  • Paraguay

    What would the CSA relations be with Latin America? Would it be cold, would their be alliances, or would the CSA outright try to conquer certain countries?
Brazil - Friendly as they are one of the few nations who still have slavery and they need to back each other to preserve this institution. Whether the Brazilians feel the same about the Confederates is up to our assumptions. It will depend on whether Brazil think it's worth to risk harming the relationship with the Union

Mexico - Uneasy. The CSA wants to expand a bit deeper into Mexico but by the time the CSA can do that Mexico will be militarily far more stronger for the CSA to handle and to annex. The Union will likely use Mexico as a counter against the CSA to prevent its expansion.

Haiti - Very hostile. They are a Black Nation who were created due to a slave rebellion. The CSA likes none of that. They may try to invade it to "give an example to all slaves or Black Americans" to show what happens if you turn against the white man. But actual success might be hard to achieve. The CSA actually invading Haiti is debatable...

Dominican Republic - Potential zone of influence and a partner against Haiti. Might even consider to annex it but it pretty much stays at considering. Nobody would really like the CSA to expand into that direction and to me it seems like Haitians can drive the Confederates out of the entire island and we have a new united island again. Don't get me wrong, I don't think Haiti is an unbeatable superpower but they are experienced in fighting on the island, are used against the illness etc and will most likely resort to guerrilla warfare. Once the Confederates treat the Catholics and/or non-Whites like shit after moving more into that part of the islands they are not going to make themselves loved among the locals. That is if the US allows them to go as far as that...

Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica - Potential areas of influence and expansion. Again, expansion seems unlikely but the CSA will consider it.

Rest of Latin America - okay-ish relationship.
 
And with the Confederacy winning the Civil War, slavery in Brazil would be vindicated so it would be relatively unlikely for the slaveholding coastal elites to abandon the Brazlian Empire and thus slavery likely wouldn't be abolished for at least a couple more decades. Same thing with Spain (Cuba and Puerto Rico). I envision all three countries getting along well enough with each other. As for the other nations, IDK,

That is until the CSA gets cocky and desire Cuba and/or Puerto Rico for themselves.
 
Not if the now-independent Confederates continue to seek territorial expansion.

Brazil was extremely wary of the US, because in the 1840s-1850s you had southerners openly advocating for the acquisition of land in Brazil by southern farmers, which, after Texas, is taken to mean(cannot be taken to mean anything else but) 'we want to take your lands for ourselves'. If this attitude doesn't change(it might, because the impulse for expansion was in part driven by the need to have more slave states), I would expect Brazil to grow closer to the United States, which already was the most important market for Brazilian coffee(and it wasn't southern farmers who were drinking it, it was the urban workers of the North).

As for both countries being slavocracies, the 1860s is the point where slavery comes to attack in Brazilian public opinion - the 1850 prohibition of the overseas slave traffic meant the only source of slaves(besides breeding, but Brazil didn't have specialized breeding slaves like the US South had) were the ones already in Brazil, and these were vaccuumed out by the coffee planters. If in the 1840s, owning a slave was a possibility for a middle-class artisan, in the 1860s, the demand from the coffee plantations had priced slaves out of the means of most people who weren't coffee planters. As the memories of owning slaves(and of the possibility of owning a slave) faded away from most of the population, support of slavery began falling out of favour from most of Brazilian society.
Is the Golden Circle even a realistic goal though? I can’t imagine them taking Cuba or parts of Mexico, let alone all of the Caribbean and South America. Best case scenario is a bunch of pro-CSA puppets in the region. As for Brazil, as long as the coastal elites continue hold the power, it won’t matter what the general public thinks and slavery could be around until the 1920s and 1930s when rubber prices drop.
 
That is until the CSA gets cocky and desire Cuba and/or Puerto Rico for themselves.
Where would the CSA cough up enough cash to purchase Cuba and Puerto Rico? Also, if the Ten Years War still happens, neither side in the conflict would support annexation into the CSA, the rebels because it would merely be a transfer from one slave holding power to another and the loyalists because why fix what isn’t broke to them? Havana was one of the most valuable cities in the Spanish Empire and all hell would break loose in Madrid if the CSA tried to invade Cuba. In short, the CSA could very well have their own Vietnam War-like situation almost a century early and it would likely end poorly for the Confederates. So why not cooperate with Spain and get a foothold in Cuba that way? Even if it’s indirect, business interests would still be represented.
 
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Where would the CSA cough up enough cash to purchase Cuba and Puerto Rico? Also, if the Ten Years War still happens, neither side in the conflict would support annexation into the CSA, the rebels because it would merely be a transfer from one slave holding power to another and the loyalists because why fix what isn’t broke to them? Havana was one of the most valuable cities in the Spanish Empire and all hell would break loose in Madrid if the CSA tried to invade Cuba. In short, the CSA could very well have their own Vietnam War-like situation almost a century early and it would likely end poorly. So why not cooperate with Spain and get a foothold in Cuba that way?

desire*

They don't need to purchase. I highly doubt they will have enough money to buy it anyway. If there is such risk, the Union might thwart it. If the CSA tries to attack it, the relationship with Spain will be strained. So much that it won't be better for at least half a century. Spain will have no hard time to hold the Confederates away, and may even try to blockade certain ports. The Confederate Navy won't be anything interesting to threaten the Spanish. But expanding there has no meaning by the time their relationship with Spain turns better, as by then (my assumption is the 1940s-1950s) Slave societies will be ostracized if they have not abolished it already. Even if the Confederates win their independence, the last of the slave societies outside parts of the Arab World will disappear by the 1910s. Especially in the Spanish Caribbean and maybe Brazil.
 
Is the Golden Circle even a realistic goal though? I can’t imagine them taking Cuba or parts of Mexico, let alone all of the Caribbean and South America. Best case scenario is a bunch of pro-CSA puppets in the region.

Even if it's not realistic, it won't be liked if they keep pushing it.

As for Brazil, as long as the coastal elites continue hold the power, it won’t matter what the general public thinks and slavery could be around until the 1920s and 1930s when rubber prices drop.

Support for slavery was divided even among the 'coastal elites', as you put it - a sugarcane planter from Bahia or Pernambuco wouldn't care about slavery, because he had already sold his slaves to a coffee plantation in Rio de Janeiro 15 years before; it's quite possible that this planter's son and heir was an ardent abolitionist(support for abolition of slavery was stronger on the northern provinces) and contributed lavishly to the cause. Hell, even among coffee planters support for slavery was divided - while the old planters from Rio de Janeiro and parts of São Paulo were slave- owners, coffee plantations were expanding to western São Paulo province, and those plantations(which would overshadow the older ones from the 1860s on) used immigrant labour.
 
desire*

They don't need to purchase. I highly doubt they will have enough money to buy it anyway. If there is such risk, the Union might thwart it. If the CSA tries to attack it, the relationship with Spain will be strained. So much that it won't be better for at least half a century. Spain will have no hard time to hold the Confederates away, and may even try to blockade certain ports. The Confederate Navy won't be anything interesting to threaten the Spanish. But expanding there has no meaning by the time their relationship with Spain turns better, as by then (my assumption is the 1940s-1950s) Slave societies will be ostracized if they have not abolished it already. Even if the Confederates win their independence, the last of the slave societies outside parts of the Arab World will disappear by the 1910s. Especially in the Spanish Caribbean and maybe Brazil.
The 1910s (in the light of the Congo Affair) is when I say the CSA abolishes slavery, speaking of which. But that’s a different conversation altogether.
 

Ficboy

Banned
The 1910s (in the light of the Congo Affair) is when I say the CSA abolishes slavery, speaking of which. But that’s a different conversation altogether.
I think the 1890s would be a more realistically time frame given the effects of Panic of 1873 and Brazil moving to abolish slavery.
 
Why is there this assumption that the CSA will be able to create zones of influence and dominate some of these countries? Its likely that if they try to actually do anything to any of the countries it will be a miserable failure.
 

Ficboy

Banned
Why is there this assumption that the CSA will be able to create zones of influence and dominate some of these countries? Its likely that if they try to actually do anything to any of the countries it will be a miserable failure.
Well it will be a regional power but never as powerful as say the United States. Italy would be a good example in which it had a colonial empire of sorts but not to the extent of France, Britain and Germany.
 
I think the 1890s would be a more realistically time frame given the effects of Panic of 1873 and Brazil moving to abolish slavery.
Not to say Brazil wouldn’t abolish slavery in 1888 but with slavery vindicated the slaveholding elites will be less likely to turn on the Empire and this slavery could last longer. The Panic of 1873 will likely not change much things except for in North Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia (possibly Kentucky and Missouri too depending on how things play out) where cotton already wasn’t the dominant cash crop and were moving towards industrialization on their own anyway. The slaveholders already held less power there than in the Deep South, especially North Carolina and Tennessee. And it would’ve been barely a decade since the CSA won their independence in a war fought on the grounds of slavery. The Panic of 1893 though is a different story. The boll weevil was already starting to come into play then and it would be over a generation after secession.
 
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