Alright, I see what your intent is now. So would you prefer a series of events that follows OTL fairly closely but minus one Hitler, or are you more flexible with what happens in the post war world? Because depending on how you look at the interwar period you could get fairly creative with who turns to fascism and how. To name just one example you could have an Iron Guard Romania.
Could fascism survive to the present without WW2?
- Thread starter TerranGames
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Alright, I see what your intent is now. So would you prefer a series of events that follows OTL fairly closely but minus one Hitler, or are you more flexible with what happens in the post war world? Because depending on how you look at the interwar period you could get fairly creative with who turns to fascism and how. To name just one example you could have an Iron Guard Romania.
Anything would do to be honest. I'm just looking for the plausibility for these right-wing non-democratic regimes to survive to the present, since most TLs and threads I've read here seem to assume the "inevitability" of a fascist collapse around the time Spain and Portugal did, so I'm wondering if their failure is inevitable, or whether survival and stability to the present is a significant chance?
I think the idea that a fascist regime would inevitably collapse is more born from wishful thinking and intentional or not parallelism to the fall of communism. As @Rufus stated upthread any potential fascist regimes that crop up aren't going to be saddled with the same problems that ultimately killed the Eastern Bloc. Much is going to depend on how the interwar period will go but even if Germany rears up for a second round it's not likely to pursue things to the same destructive ends that the Nazis did, so at minimum it's reasonable to imagine the Mediterranean countries as a surviving fascist bloc. Without a wider war I can also easily see Japan not only remaining authoritarian but becoming more so with time when the Second Sino-Japanese War keeps grinding people up uselessly.
Could a (even if slowed) growth in economic globalism, communication as well as stabilisation of democratic institutions around the world result in the isolation of Fascist regimes?
Perhaps not to the same extent as the sanctions against Communist nations or Iran in OTL. But less favorable trade agreements and rise in personal boycotts against for example Italian products.
It might not kill fascism as a whole. But it could result in Italy's fascist block slowly eroding as more reforms are slowly added to appease Western and domestic demands.
Perhaps not to the same extent as the sanctions against Communist nations or Iran in OTL. But less favorable trade agreements and rise in personal boycotts against for example Italian products.
It might not kill fascism as a whole. But it could result in Italy's fascist block slowly eroding as more reforms are slowly added to appease Western and domestic demands.
Wasn’t Fascist Italy sanctioned OTL over its invasion of Ethiopia? And of course Imperial Japan went on the warpath after it was sanctioned. While obviously neither lived past WWII I don’t think sanctions would change the minds of the men in power towards reform.
Portugal kept there colonies into the 1970s, without the pressure of widescale decolonization I expect them to keep thier empire until modern day. Italy may be able to keep ethiopia if everything goes right but baring a wank I expect ethiopia to be Italys Vietnam and end in embarrassment for the regime and depending on how deep they get trapped in sunk cost phalisy this may be the event that causes fascism to lose support in Italy. Barring a worst case scenario Italy likly retain at least the forth shore of costal Libya.
Fourth Shore - Wikipedia
Italian East Africa - Wikipedia
Portugal kept there colonies into the 1970s, without the pressure of widescale decolonization I expect them to keep thier empire until modern day. Italy may be able to keep ethiopia if everything goes right but baring a wank I expect ethiopia to be Italys Vietnam and end in embarrassment for the regime and depending on how deep they get trapped in sunk cost phalisy this may be the event that causes fascism to lose support in Italy. Barring a worst case scenario Italy likly retain at least the forth shore of costal Libya.
View attachment 902806
They may also retain a expanded Eritrea and Somolia (the borders of Eritrea and Somolia where larger inside of italian east africa and if Italy pushes for the full retention of its costal states when granting ethiopian independence they may retain these larger borders) if they can't hold this long term then it may mean a larger Eritrea and somolia if they gain independence later.Fourth Shore - Wikipedia
en.m.wikipedia.org
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Italian East Africa - Wikipedia
Portugal might be able to keep that if they play things right but I doubt that. Probably they just make same mistakes and stupidities than in OTL. And Italy has not way to keep Ethiopia. It is almost same if France would try keep Indochina much longer.
The geopolitik of Spain being one of the sunniest countries in Europe also helped immensely from the late 1960s onwards as British, Dutch, German and Scandinavian tourism made a huge contribution to Spanish economic growth.
Maybe not in the near time, but Fascist Italy survived less than a decade after the invasion.
In a timeline where Italy has to keep up for decades against a world that is more connected and sees less reasons to be interested in extremist ideas, then I could see the economy taking more and more of a gut punch.
I head that the people of Eritrea have a rather high opinion of the Italians when compared to Somalis and especially Ethiopians.Portugal kept there colonies into the 1970s, without the pressure of widescale decolonization I expect them to keep thier empire until modern day. Italy may be able to keep ethiopia if everything goes right but baring a wank I expect ethiopia to be Italys Vietnam and end in embarrassment for the regime and depending on how deep they get trapped in sunk cost phalisy this may be the event that causes fascism to lose support in Italy. Barring a worst case scenario Italy likly retain at least the forth shore of costal Libya.
View attachment 902806
They may also retain a expanded Eritrea and Somolia (the borders of Eritrea and Somolia where larger inside of italian east africa and if Italy pushes for the full retention of its costal states when granting ethiopian independence they may retain these larger borders) if they can't hold this long term then it may mean a larger Eritrea and somolia if they gain independence later.Fourth Shore - Wikipedia
View attachment 902803
Italian East Africa - Wikipedia
Perhaps we could see Eritrea hanging on as a loyal colony? Perhaps Somalia too if they play their hands right with the Somalis, but even then I see more of a close partnership post independence.
It definitely could, and might even have had a fertile ground to grow in the third world once decolonization hits (and it will, eventually)
It would help to note that Fascism wasn't really that common even before WWII. Italy, of course, is the main example, but the Iberian countries were too catholic and too 19th century to be considered fascist. Stanley Payne (who studied Franco's Spain and Fascism for most of his career) noted that, of all the right-wing dictatorships of the interwar period, only Italy and partially, Austria could be considered fascist. Germany is its own beast with Nazism.
Anyway, in a world without WWII or even one where Italy stays neutral or even joins the allies, you could see fascism legitimized as Italy would experience economic growth trading to the allies and the prestige of being on the winner's side. Their own colonies would be an issue, but I could definitely see a generation of colonial subjects seeing the nationalism, perceived military strength and pride of Fascist Italy and wanting to emulate that. Add in a breakdown of relations between the Allies and Italy's bloc and you have a recipe for blackshirt rebels in Africa and Asia.
It would help to note that Fascism wasn't really that common even before WWII. Italy, of course, is the main example, but the Iberian countries were too catholic and too 19th century to be considered fascist. Stanley Payne (who studied Franco's Spain and Fascism for most of his career) noted that, of all the right-wing dictatorships of the interwar period, only Italy and partially, Austria could be considered fascist. Germany is its own beast with Nazism.
Anyway, in a world without WWII or even one where Italy stays neutral or even joins the allies, you could see fascism legitimized as Italy would experience economic growth trading to the allies and the prestige of being on the winner's side. Their own colonies would be an issue, but I could definitely see a generation of colonial subjects seeing the nationalism, perceived military strength and pride of Fascist Italy and wanting to emulate that. Add in a breakdown of relations between the Allies and Italy's bloc and you have a recipe for blackshirt rebels in Africa and Asia.
Tourism might be overstated, specially around that time. Spanish economic growth was a much more comprehensive phenomenon: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_miracle
Regarding the thread, yes, Fascist regimes could easily be around till today, specially with such massive PoV.
Honestly depends on the regime. Countries like Germany and Japan who were adamant at doing expansionism wouldn't survive given no one likes being invaded, while Italy and Romania probably truck along with the Iberian fascist states for a few decades depending on how they do economically.
One thing I'm surprised people haven't mentioned is what happens when The Great Leader dies and there's a power struggle that in OTL resulted in the regimes collapsing shortly after, especially true if Italy ends up with a Portugal situation where they're fighting a losing colonial war or have outright lost their colonies to Ethiopian and Somalian freedom fighters, the whole "decades long insurgency warfare" is not good for the economy and especially given the western powers weren't too cozy with the fascists, so don't expect the same funding because there wouldn't be a cold war ITTL.
So whether they can survive depends very heavily on many reasons, some of them can survive but others will simply collapse back into democracies
One thing I'm surprised people haven't mentioned is what happens when The Great Leader dies and there's a power struggle that in OTL resulted in the regimes collapsing shortly after, especially true if Italy ends up with a Portugal situation where they're fighting a losing colonial war or have outright lost their colonies to Ethiopian and Somalian freedom fighters, the whole "decades long insurgency warfare" is not good for the economy and especially given the western powers weren't too cozy with the fascists, so don't expect the same funding because there wouldn't be a cold war ITTL.
So whether they can survive depends very heavily on many reasons, some of them can survive but others will simply collapse back into democracies
France was actually winning the Indochina war up until Chinese support came, the Viet Minh held only a narrow strip of land on the border with China.
And it doesn't seem to me like the Ethiopians were able to free themselves without outside help.
Also only 1/5th of the Italian forces in East Africa were Italian. The Somalians, Eritreans, and Ethiopian minorities provided the overwhelming bulk of the personnel for the occupation. If that continues, then the counter insurgency is unlikely to create the sort of domestic unrest in metropolitan Italy that the Colonial War caused Portugal, the Algerian War caused France, and the Vietnam War caused America.
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Extremist ideas like communism? Franco’s Spain saw significant growth after World War 2. I think that was just their natural trajectory.
Italian fascism was Catholic. Being religious doesn’t preclude being fascist. I think we migh separate fascism broadly from the specific variant found in Italy. For example, Payne called Portugal authoritarian corporatist, but aren’t both of those planks found in the Italian version? There are differences, but they all seem to have been following the same historical trend.
I definitely see Ethiopia regaining their independence though. They’d try to cling to their colonies and it would be bloody.
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For example.
Although in the case of Communism... I kinda have mixed feelings.
It doesn't have the saving grace that it's better than Nazism nor that the Soviet Union itself defeated Nazi Germany together with the West Allies.
But also it isn't the #1 enemy post WW2 for almost half a century.
So that means that it could depend on how the Soviet Union behaves post being part of the LoN.
We could see the USSR being more accepted but Communism domestically being more distrusted with a lack of Nazism. Or a reverse in that Communism itself is more tolerated as long as it distances itself from the big evil USSR (Considering that we don't have a Nazi Germany to outshine it)
Now wasn't Franco's Spain saved duo to the US focusing now on big mean uncle Joe?
Without the Soviets in their OTL position, there are more reasons to focus on Fascist regimes. Although with Italy and the rest of Southern Europe not being unfriendly to Authoritarian/Fascist regimes, I could see Spain still being in a good position.
My point was that extreme ideologies thrived Post-WW2. There’s no real reason to think that people would try to topple the regimes in Iberia or other parts of the Mediterranean and Balkans whether the Soviet Union exists as America’s rival or not. These regimes collapsed OTL, because fascism was discredited by the Holocaust and they were isolated. Especially Spain.
Math
Banned
A fascism That adheres to the principles of the 1919 manifesto can survive:
The Manifesto (published in Il Popolo d'Italia on June 6, 1919) is divided into four sections, describing the movement's objectives in political, social, military and financial fields.[2]
Politically, the Manifesto calls for:
Universal suffrage with a lowered voting age to 18 years, and voting and electoral office eligibility for all ages 25 and up;
Proportional representation on a regional basis;
Voting for women;
Representation at government level of newly created national councils by economic sector;
The abolition of the Italian Senate (at the time, the Senate, as the upper house of parliament, was by process elected by the wealthier citizens, but were in reality direct appointments by the king. It has been described as a sort of extended council of the crown);
The formation of a national council of experts for labor, for industry, for transportation, for the public health, for communications, etc. Selections to be made of professionals or of tradesmen with legislative powers, and elected directly to a general commission with ministerial powers.
In labor and social policy, the Manifesto calls for:
The quick enactment of a law of the state that sanctions an eight-hour workday for all workers;
A minimum wage;
The participation of workers' representatives in the functions of industry commissions;
To show the same confidence in the labor unions (that prove to be technically and morally worthy) as is given to industry executives or public servants;
Reorganization of the railways and the public transport sector;
Revision of the draft law on invalidity insurance;
Reduction of the retirement age from 65 to 55.
In military affairs, the Manifesto advocates:
Creation of a short-service national militia with specifically defensive responsibilities;
Armaments factories are to be nationalized;
A peaceful but competitive foreign policy.
In finance, the Manifesto advocates:
A strong extraordinary tax on capital of a progressive nature, which takes the form of true partial expropriation of all wealth;
The seizure of all the possessions of the religious congregations and the abolition of all the bishoprics, which constitute an enormous liability on the Nation and on the privileges of the poor;
Revision of all contracts for military provisions;
The revision of all military contracts and the seizure of 85 percent of the profits therein.
The Manifesto (published in Il Popolo d'Italia on June 6, 1919) is divided into four sections, describing the movement's objectives in political, social, military and financial fields.[2]
Politically, the Manifesto calls for:
Universal suffrage with a lowered voting age to 18 years, and voting and electoral office eligibility for all ages 25 and up;
Proportional representation on a regional basis;
Voting for women;
Representation at government level of newly created national councils by economic sector;
The abolition of the Italian Senate (at the time, the Senate, as the upper house of parliament, was by process elected by the wealthier citizens, but were in reality direct appointments by the king. It has been described as a sort of extended council of the crown);
The formation of a national council of experts for labor, for industry, for transportation, for the public health, for communications, etc. Selections to be made of professionals or of tradesmen with legislative powers, and elected directly to a general commission with ministerial powers.
In labor and social policy, the Manifesto calls for:
The quick enactment of a law of the state that sanctions an eight-hour workday for all workers;
A minimum wage;
The participation of workers' representatives in the functions of industry commissions;
To show the same confidence in the labor unions (that prove to be technically and morally worthy) as is given to industry executives or public servants;
Reorganization of the railways and the public transport sector;
Revision of the draft law on invalidity insurance;
Reduction of the retirement age from 65 to 55.
In military affairs, the Manifesto advocates:
Creation of a short-service national militia with specifically defensive responsibilities;
Armaments factories are to be nationalized;
A peaceful but competitive foreign policy.
In finance, the Manifesto advocates:
A strong extraordinary tax on capital of a progressive nature, which takes the form of true partial expropriation of all wealth;
The seizure of all the possessions of the religious congregations and the abolition of all the bishoprics, which constitute an enormous liability on the Nation and on the privileges of the poor;
Revision of all contracts for military provisions;
The revision of all military contracts and the seizure of 85 percent of the profits therein.