The administration of João Goulart (also known as Jango), which would be Brazil's last democratically elected one for more than two decades, was engulfed in turmoil from the get go. Jânio Quadros' resignation kicked off a crisis that nearly led to a civil war, and Goulart only took office thanks to the actions of Leonel Brizola, governor of Rio Grande do Sul at the time. Even then, however, Jango's powers as president were severely reduced for a sizable part of his tenure: Brazil's presidential system of governance was replaced with a parliamentary one as part of the deal to assure his accession to the presidency.
This turned out to be incredibly dysfunctional, and Brazil went through three prime ministers in less than two years. By the time Jango's powers were restored, following a plebiscite in January 1963, the situation had become significantly worse: inflation was on the rise, as was political radicalization. His attempt to save the economy through the Plano Trienal was a costly failure, and by 1964 (the year he was deposed) the inflation rate was at 91%. Strikes became ever more frequent as workers saw their wages decrease in value, further crippling the economy and alienating potential allies in the military.
So what if the "parliamentary experiment" is never attempted in the first place? Let's say the anti-coup position in the 1961 crisis is stronger, meaning no compromise is necessary for Jango to take office. I believe the best POD for that would be preventing the elections of Carlos Lacerda and Magalhães Pinto to the governorships of Guanabara and Minas Gerais respectively - both of them won their respective races by very narrow margins, Lacerda especially.
How could Jango's administration develop if he's given all the powers stipulated by the Constitution from the get go? He and his cabinet would at least have more time to fix the economy, and that could be decisive: one of the Plano Trienal's biggest problems, according to what I've read so far, was that it was hastily planned, leading to contradictory goals. Perhaps TTL's Plano Trienal could focus on inflation on the short term through an austerity program, perhaps for a year or so, before moving on to economic growth?
I wonder, should Brazil's political and economic situation stabilize, if the US would be more willing to aid Goulart's administration instead of working for its demise. Jango and JFK had cordial, if lukewarm relations at first AFAIK.
This turned out to be incredibly dysfunctional, and Brazil went through three prime ministers in less than two years. By the time Jango's powers were restored, following a plebiscite in January 1963, the situation had become significantly worse: inflation was on the rise, as was political radicalization. His attempt to save the economy through the Plano Trienal was a costly failure, and by 1964 (the year he was deposed) the inflation rate was at 91%. Strikes became ever more frequent as workers saw their wages decrease in value, further crippling the economy and alienating potential allies in the military.
So what if the "parliamentary experiment" is never attempted in the first place? Let's say the anti-coup position in the 1961 crisis is stronger, meaning no compromise is necessary for Jango to take office. I believe the best POD for that would be preventing the elections of Carlos Lacerda and Magalhães Pinto to the governorships of Guanabara and Minas Gerais respectively - both of them won their respective races by very narrow margins, Lacerda especially.
How could Jango's administration develop if he's given all the powers stipulated by the Constitution from the get go? He and his cabinet would at least have more time to fix the economy, and that could be decisive: one of the Plano Trienal's biggest problems, according to what I've read so far, was that it was hastily planned, leading to contradictory goals. Perhaps TTL's Plano Trienal could focus on inflation on the short term through an austerity program, perhaps for a year or so, before moving on to economic growth?
I wonder, should Brazil's political and economic situation stabilize, if the US would be more willing to aid Goulart's administration instead of working for its demise. Jango and JFK had cordial, if lukewarm relations at first AFAIK.