Bayezid the Thunderbolt wins the Battle of Ankara - Effects?

[Sarthak]

The Battle of Ankara almost ended the Ottoman Empire iotl. Iotl, Bayezid I arrived on the battlefield on the 19th, but decided to camp instead of attacking immediately when Timur's army was strung out and could have been defeated piecemeal as advised by Stephan Lazarevic. Let's say Bayezid takes the advise of his brother in law and comes out victorious. In a reverse situation, the sons of Timur escape the battle but Timur himself is captured in the battle.

What are the consequences and effects of Ottoman victory in the Battle of Ankara 1402?

 

[Halrin16]

Constantinople fall earlier ITTL and Bayezid already siege Constantinople during thia period 1394–1402. Timurid empire would fall into chaos as timurid son fought for the throne and earlier collapse of the empire i guess. Mughal get butterflied if all of miran shah family is executed. Ottoman would invade italy and take rome since mehmed really like everything that involve roman empire, perhaps byzantine senate even get revived this timelines. Regarding timur bayezid will imprison him until his death in 1405. I do wonder if Timurid renaissance still happen ITTL.​

 

[Vladyslav]

Ottoman would invade italy and take rome

Is conquer of Southern Italy possible? It is a war in hostile territory too far from mobilization centers of Ottoman Empire. IOTL Cyprus was conquered in 1571. Turkish Apulia and tries to conquer Napoli and Roma from this lodgment is possible but no more

 

[JohnBooth1900]

The Battle of Ankara almost ended the Ottoman Empire iotl. Iotl, Bayezid I arrived on the battlefield on the 19th, but decided to camp instead of attacking immediately when Timur's army was strung out and could have been defeated piecemeal as advised by Stephan Lazarevic. Let's say Bayezid takes the advise of his brother in law and comes out victorious. In a reverse situation, the sons of Timur escape the battle but Timur himself is captured in the battle.

What are the consequences and effects of Ottoman victory in the Battle of Ankara 1402?

The Ottomans lost the battle of Ankara before it even began.

Bayezid was advised by his commanders to go on the defensive, and wait for Tamerlane to attack. Instead, he chased after him and was outmaneuvered. The Timurids actually managed to get behind the Ottomans and capture their camp. They also took up defensive positions around Ankara. The Ottoman soldiers were exhausted and thirsty from days of marching, but instead of going after Tamerlane immediately, Bayezid went on a hunting expedition. The Timurids poisoned the water supplys, and by the time Bayezid returned, his troops were actually dying of thirst. At this point, he had no choice but to launch an attack.

The Timurids were not only occupying strong defensive positions, but they also outnumbered the Ottomans, which gave them the advantage. They also had a troop of elephants to act as a form of heavy cavalry. Moreover, they had also convinced some of the troops in the Ottoman army (the Tatars) to switch sides. This did end up happening during the battle.

 

[Sarthak]

The Ottomans lost the battle of Ankara before it even began.

Bayezid was advised by his commanders to go on the defensive, and wait for Tamerlane to attack. Instead, he chased after him and was outmaneuvered. The Timurids actually managed to get behind the Ottomans and capture their camp. They also took up defensive positions around Ankara. The Ottoman soldiers were exhausted and thirsty from days of marching, but instead of going after Tamerlane immediately, Bayezid went on a hunting expedition. The Timurids poisoned the water supplys, and by the time Bayezid returned, his troops were actually dying of thirst. At this point, he had no choice but to launch an attack.

The Timurids were not only occupying strong defensive positions, but they also outnumbered the Ottomans, which gave them the advantage. They also had a troop of elephants to act as a form of heavy cavalry. Moreover, they had also convinced some of the troops in the Ottoman army (the Tatars) to switch sides. This did end up happening during the battle.

from a tactical point of view, Bayezid I not waiting in Ankara was a smart decision. The city's supplies were low and would not be able to supply the entire populace, and the 90,000 army. Bayezid I turned north where he assumed the Timurid army was, and it was fresh country, so he veered north. Tactically, this was an extremely sound move on his part. Waiting in Ankara would have only let to slow starvation of his army.

On the 19th when he arrived near Ankara the Timurid lines were all strung out, and the Tatar Cavalry made contact with the Timurids that night, so on the 19th, they were more or less, still swearing allegiance to Bayezid. Like Lazarevic and Prince Suleiman told Bayezid, the 19th was the best moment for the Ottomans to attack, but Bayezid did nothing, more or less allowing Timur to regroup and re-organize his forces, and defeat Bayezid the next day.

 

[Sarthak]

Is conquer of Southern Italy possible? It is a war in hostile territory too far from mobilization centers of Ottoman Empire. IOTL Cyprus was conquered in 1571. Turkish Apulia and tries to conquer Napoli and Roma from this lodgment is possible but no more

According to @The Undead Martyr:-

I think they can definitely take sicily- Aragon and Anjou are scheduled for a dynastic squabble. Note that the Schism is still ongoing and that Venice is still recovering from choggia while the Hussite Wars will break out in 1414 and the HYW is still ongoing, and of course Spain doesn't exist and probably won't for several decades.


You're effectively giving the Ottomans fifty years head start, and they are expanding at a a time where Europe is completely fractured and so much is up in the air....

Basically it's not impossible that the Ottomans could reach Justinians borders by TTLs 16th century. And at the very least they will have southern Italy plus everything they did OTL.

And the Italian states are much weaker. Venice is still recovering from choggia and the plague. Milan is about to collapse. Thr Church is still in schism. Sicily and Aragon are about to undergo a succession crisis. The Hundred Years war is only halfway through. The Hussite Wars are about to distract Hungary-Bohemia and Poland and Germany. If the Ottomans play their cards right and exploit Europes internal divisions they could be at the Alps by the 1440s.

 

[Vladyslav]

According to @The Undead Martyr:-

Fifty years is more optimistic for Ottomans. I give them 25-30 years head start ITTL. Yes, Constantinople would fall in 1400s but it has more symbolic meaning than real. Also, the main front for Ottomans is Balkans where they fight against Hungary.

 

[Sarthak]

Fifty years is more optimistic for Ottomans. I give them 25-30 years head start ITTL. Yes, Constantinople would fall in 1400s but it has more symbolic meaning than real. Also, the main front for Ottomans is Balkans where they fight against Hungary.

I mean with the Hussite Wars, Hungary isn't much of a threat until the Hussites are fully stamped down upon. And yes, a victory in 1402 is essentially a 50 year headstart, considering the divisions in Europe in 1402.

 

[Vladyslav]

with the Hussite Wars, Hungary isn't much of a threat

IOTL Hussite Wars didn't interfere Hungarian fight against Turkey in 1426-28

 

[Sarthak]

IOTL Hussite Wars didn't interfere Hungarian fight against Turkey in 1426-28

IOTL, Hungary and the Ottomans remained at peace between 1400 and 1436,after the Hussite Wars ended - aside from a few raids and border wars here and there - the Ottoman Invasion of Albania was the war that led to a renewal of hostilities between the Ottomans and Hungarians after a generation of peace.

 

[Elfwine]

The Hussite Wars are more than a decade away. I doubt Hungary is a threat to the Ottomans in the sense of losing significant territory, but I think there's going to be some kind of response to the fall of Constantinople as far as that the Ottomans aren't going to be completely free to do whatever they they want - framing this as a "headstart" seems kind of misleading, IMO.

So my question as far as that goes: Would Bayzeid want to take more of the Balkans (as opposed to finishing things in Asia Minor)? Would he be in as good a position to deal with Trebizond as Mehmed II was?

I think that's a more reasonable place to start than Sicily.

 

[Vladyslav]

IOTL, Hungary and the Ottomans remained at peace between 1400 and 1436

Osmanlı-Macar Savaşı (1426-1428) - Vikipedi

tr-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog

 

[Sarthak]

Osmanlı-Macar Savaşı (1426-1428) - Vikipedi

tr-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog

that was more of a border war more than anything else? Neither side really bought or invested much more than their regional forces against each other then.

 

[Ursogulos]

Ottoman military reforms which switched to more infantry dependence than ghazi riders don’t change. So a slower Ottoman military buildup owing to cavalry importance

 

[The Undead Martyr]

The Ottomans would probably focus cleaning up Greece as OTL, subduing Albania (which is unlikely to put up as stiff a resistance TTL absent Skanderbeg and Venetian support), Epirus, Athens, and the Peloponnese.

Some sort of response would probably be forthcoming, but who is in a positon to act? Only Hungary and the Empire, to an extent the Italians. This is also not that far removed from Nikopolis.

 

[Sarthak]

Ottoman military reforms which switched to more infantry dependence than ghazi riders don’t change. So a slower Ottoman military buildup owing to cavalry importance

thats a good point. Though allowing the Ottoman cavalry to develop organically on its own rather than the stunted growth of otl would probably offset some of the disadvantages of a more cavalry heavy army. (though the Ottomans never kept a total cavalry army like the Mamluks and Timurids)

The Ottomans would probably focus cleaning up Greece as OTL, subduing Albania (which is unlikely to put up as stiff a resistance TTL absent Skanderbeg and Venetian support), Epirus, Athens, and the Peloponnese.

Heh i had half a mind to write a tl where Skanderberg becomes Grand Vizier ittl! His defection from pro-Ottoman to anti-Ottoman was quite surprising to many who knew him iotl.

Some sort of response would probably be forthcoming, but who is in a positon to act? Only Hungary and the Empire, to an extent the Italians. This is also not that far removed from Nikopolis.

and with Nicopolis in 1396, close memory, i don't think Budapest or the Germans are going to be willing to act until some time later. Bayezid winning Ankara will only cement his reputation as a very talented commander.

 

[The Undead Martyr]

I suspect, if the Ottomans do end up crossing into Sicily more permanently, that it would be kicking up a hornet's nest. The Italian states are not moribund yet, and both Spain and France have clear interest in Italy, which Ottoman Sicily threatens.
We could see a Valois Kingdom of Lombardy emerge, for example, and a Franco-Spanish "Crusade" for Naples as part of the Italian Wars.

 

[Sarthak]

I suspect, if the Ottomans do end up crossing into Sicily more permanently, that it would be kicking up a hornet's nest. The Italian states are not moribund yet, and both Spain and France have clear interest in Italy, which Ottoman Sicily threatens.
We could see a Valois Kingdom of Lombardy emerge, for example, and a Franco-Spanish "Crusade" for Naples as part of the Italian Wars.

I dont think the Ottomans will cross into Southern Italy without clearing up Anatolia, Greece, and Albania up. Bayezid I otl planned to reward Stephan Lazarevic by granting him a sizeable Serbian kingdom (still under his suzerainty of course), which would inevitably mean war with Hungary. Bayezid I's successor - most probably Suleiman - would probably be the one to cross into Italy. But Sicily is more likely than Ortranto in his case. Probably during the Aragonese Succession Crisis.

 

[The Undead Martyr]

The Ottomans landed at Ottanto OTL and there are obvious geostrategic reasons for landing there first.
Both crowns are linked politically and diplomatically.

 

[Italian Sock Monkey]

Ottoman would invade italy and take rome since mehmed really like everything that involve roman empire, perhaps byzantine senate even get revived this timelines.

The moment a Janissary or Ottoman sets foot on the Italian Peninsula the Pope is going to panic and invoke a crusade, one that I'd be very hard pressed in seeing the Ottomans emerging victorious from. Both Aragon and France still have claims/interest in Southern Italy to say nothing of the HRE (Whose Emperor if memory serves is currently Sigmund of Hungary who'd have double the incentive to wage war against the Ottomans seeing as how they're in his backyard.)