An Irish victory at Kinsale?

[Vinization]

The Siege of Kinsale was the most important engagement of the Nine Years' War, the biggest rebellion to take place in Ireland during the Tudor period. IOTL the English defeated the rebels and their Spanish allies, eventually crushing the revolt entirely roughly a year later. But what if the Irish alliance won? IIRC they had a decent shot at doing so IOTL, but they failed to coordinate with the besieged Spaniards effectively, both sides being defeated in detail as a result.

What would happen after such a victory? Could the English be thrown out of Ireland entirely, and if so, what would it look like? For example, who would govern it, a local Irish noble or some foreign prince? I assume Spain would be overjoyed, to put it mildly, by this blow to English prestige - even their OTL victory was extremely expensive, and a loss would be even more so. Would London try to reassert control over it in the future?

 

[BELFAST]

Even with a victory at Kinsale, it is hard to say how long Ireland could be held.
Ireland is too important for the Brtish to hold to protect their trade route around Ireland by sea.

 

[Von Tyrconnell]

Even with a victory at Kinsale, it is hard to say how long Ireland could be held.
Ireland is too important for the Brtish to hold to protect their trade route around Ireland by sea.

The Nine Years War was extremely close-run and expensive for the English while they had much of Ireland under their control and many Irish nobles on their side or going with whoever seemed more likely to win, reconquering an Ireland completely separated from English control would be a much more costly task especially considering how difficult amphibious invasions can be to pull off.

It's more likely in the long run that the English would attempt to get Ireland into their sphere of influence and out of the Spanish sphere via diplomatic and economic means.

 

[Vinization]

Even with a victory at Kinsale, it is hard to say how long Ireland could be held.
Ireland is too important for the Brtish to hold to protect their trade route around Ireland by sea.

Personally, I can see Ireland keeping its independence for at least a few decades unless something truly terrible happens to them. England would be bankrupt and probably be forced to deal with some internal unrest, even if rather limited since its Catholic population was probably minuscule at that point (I confess I don't know anything about it), and the Stuart kings weren't exemplary monarchs.

Plus, Spain would likely sponsor this independent Ireland for at least a few years, given they sent troops to help them during the war and they were still Europe's top dog at that point.

 

[Vinization]

The Nine Years War was extremely close-run and expensive for the English while they had much of Ireland under their control and many Irish nobles on their side or going with whoever seemed more likely to win, reconquering an Ireland completely separated from English control would be a much more costly task especially considering how difficult amphibious invasions can be to pull off.

It's more likely in the long run that the English would attempt to get Ireland into their sphere of influence and out of the Spanish sphere via diplomatic and economic means.

What do you think this hypothetical Ireland would look like, politically? My guess is it'd be heavily decentralized, at least for a while. Who would rule it?

 

[Simreeve]

Personally, I can see Ireland keeping its independence for at least a few decades unless something truly terrible happens to them. England would be bankrupt and probably be forced to deal with some internal unrest, even if rather limited since its Catholic population was probably minuscule at that point (I confess I don't know anything about it), and the Stuart kings weren't exemplary monarchs.

Until the English Civil War goes ahead more or less as IOTL, and then Cromwell decides to secure the Commonwealth's flank in that direction, perhaps?

 

[Vinization]

Until the English Civil War goes ahead more or less as IOTL, and then Cromwell decides to secure the Commonwealth's flank in that direction, perhaps?

A lot of butterflies would've flapped their wings by then, and even if they don't Ireland would still be independent for decades. Even so, I can definitely see the English winning - but it would've been very expensive, perhaps excessively so. Or maybe not, if Ireland turns into a basket case and some prominent lord/earl helps the invaders for whatever reason.

 

[Von Tyrconnell]

What do you think this hypothetical Ireland would look like, politically? My guess is it'd be heavily decentralized, at least for a while. Who would rule it?

Hugh O'Neill and Hugh Roe O'Donnell suggesting crowning Philip II (the current thinking of the time was that the Irish were originally from Spain, Irish people in exile were given citizenship in Spain for centuries because of this) and Albert VII, the Archduke of Austria, so Ireland would likely be either in personal union with Spain or a kingdom under another member of the House of Habsburg.

 

[Vinization]

Hugh O'Neill and Hugh Roe O'Donnell suggesting crowning Philip II (the current thinking of the time was that the Irish were originally from Spain, Irish people in exile were given citizenship in Spain for centuries because of this) and Albert VII, the Archduke of Austria, so Ireland would likely be either in personal union with Spain or a kingdom under another member of the House of Habsburg.

Aw, that's unfortunate - damn those Habsburgs, always getting their grubby hands in every crown they can reach. /s

Still, it makes sense, since a foreign-born monarch could at least pretend to be a neutral arbiter in the inevitable disputes that the Irish clans would get into.

 

[Metempsychosis]

It can't be any worse for Ireland than OTL's English rule. Honestly, for that alone, the Spaniards would get a lot of Irish support for whatever they intend to do with Ireland.

 

[Vinization]

It can't be any worse for Ireland than OTL's English rule. Honestly, for that alone, the Spaniards would get a lot of Irish support for whatever they intend to do with Ireland.

Yeah, 100%. There wouldn't be any plantations, for starters.

 

[Ozer]

Ireland would probably become De Facto independent, but after that there would likely be disagreement over things like who controls what land, and importantly, whether Ireland would have and Irish or Foreign (probably Spanish) king. I suspect that most of the Gaelic chiefs would prefer a Spanish king, but they would be split on the issue, and the Anglo-Norman aristocracy (whatever's left of it) would probably be encouraged by England to to support a native king, who they would see as easier to manipulate/bring into their sphere of influence.

 

[Mart1205]

A lot of butterflies would've flapped their wings by then, and even if they don't Ireland would still be independent for decades. Even so, I can definitely see the English winning - but it would've been very expensive, perhaps excessively so. Or maybe not, if Ireland turns into a basket case and some prominent lord/earl helps the invaders for whatever reason.

But wouldn't the English essentially would be fighting a unified Ireland that would be more of model of the Spanish/English tactics with a bit of native Gaelic warfare. The likelihood of the roundheads winning is a bit unlikely in my opinion