An Age of Miracles Continues: The Empire of Rhomania

If you don't mind my asking, which book was that? I'm fascinated by the early Paleozoic and would love a recommendation to check out.
It’s Cambrian Ocean World by John Foster. I found it on Hoopla. Your local library may have a subscription. Mine does; I had to set up a separate account using my library card but it’s free. I also have a book on the Ordovician and another on the evolution of tetrapods on my to-read list there.

Some day i hope we'll see a Rhoman expedition to mars! Obv that'd be in like a bajillion years but a lad can dream
I still hope, if I ever get to the present day ITTL, that the final update (not including an epilogue) is the first Roman probe/ship entering the Alpha Centauri system.

Just change the Rhomanians to elves facing against upstart races on all sides but coming out ahead.
Personally, I’m less interested in the various different races interacting in fantasy. I enjoyed the intrigue and political fighting between all the humans in ASOIAF, but frankly didn’t care about the White Walkers/Others.

Plus elves annoy me in general.

Unlike this Andreas the 1st one was sensible and responsible enough to do his 'duty' as a married man. If anything this Andreas would be another powder keg that can lead to another ToT. At first I was sad at his death but comparing him to various real life examples, I find that it was best if he died earlier and should have chosen Odysseus as his apparent heir in case of death.
Odysseus can act as the emperor until one of Andreas sons come of age, just like Basil II many step-father emperors.

But considering they're bastards they have issues with legitimacy and since the Sideros have a claim to the throne they can peacefully usurp the throne without any German invasion.
In some defense of Andreas III, he (and Elizabeth) were both quite young. I’d have to check the ages to be sure, but they were in late teens and early twenties, which helps explain some of their poorer decisions. Elizabeth certainly has grown a lot wiser and savvier in the past few years. Andreas III may have done the same had he lived longer. Certainly Andreas I would’ve been viewed quite differently if he’d only been on the throne for 4 years rather than 40+.

I’m gonna drop the patreon link again bc B444 isn’t big on shilling https://www.patreon.com/Basileus444
Thank you. It is much appreciated.

I don't know if it was already answered but what is the name of Pacific Ocean in TTL? Has there be some exploring of it?
I admit I completely spaced on the naming of the Pacific. There hasn’t been much exploring of it; knowledge is comparable to the OTL point in time. There’s the stretch covered by the Pyrgos galleons between the Herakleians and Mexico, plus some poking around New Guinea and the Solomons, but the likes of New Zealand, Tahiti, Hawaii, and Alaska are completely unknown (save to the inhabitants).
 
The War in Korea: 1637
The War in Korea, 1637

"When wisdom comes from Seoul."-Korean expression, equivalent to the Terranovan 'when pigs fly'.

The winter of 1636-37 is much quieter than the previous winter. There are skirmishes and probes and raids, but nothing that significantly alters the dynamics on the ground. For both sides the main concern is that of supply.

The allied supply lines are free from harassment save from the occasional bandit or Chinese raid but the demand for food and equipment is still prodigious. The fighting is taking place in the north while most of the food in Korea is grown in the south, and neither the Koreans nor the Japanese have much experience or organization for mass logistics. The Koreans in the Jurchen campaigns fielded high-quality mobile armies, but small ones. The Japanese are more used to mass armies, but that was done for shorter durations in their home islands, where the need for ground transport was minimal. Large wagon trains are not simple things to organize, and one axle busting in a bad place can jam up the whole train for a day if it turns out one misplaced the spare parts and/or tools.

The Chinese on the other hand are quite experienced at the logistics of mass armies, having cut their teeth in the battles for northern China. They know all the equipment, and in what quantities, that are needed to keep supplies flowing and have their re-conquest organization still in place with the same experienced officials. Accidents, mistakes, and simple bad luck can and do happen, but the key in war isn’t to be perfect, which is an impossibility, but to make fewer mistakes than the other side. When it comes to logistics, the Chinese are absolutely the side making the fewest mistakes.

On the other hand, the Chinese supply lines are under constant harassment from the various Righteous Armies. The most substantial operations during the winter are by Chinese units against some of these Righteous Armies. If the Koreans are caught in the open, the Chinese invariably win, but the Koreans are mostly successful in avoiding a field battle.

Nevertheless the Chinese pressure on the Righteous Armies keeps them from attacking the Chinese supply lines so much, albeit at the cost of sucking away vital manpower. During the winter that is acceptable but will be a serious problem come the resumption of active campaigning. To avoid the issue, Li Rusong spends much of the winter wooing the Jurchen clans with the Luoyang court supporting him. By spring several have been brought into the Chinese orbit, providing cavalry to guard the Chinese supply lines and letting Li use his Chinese troops for the advance.

Even with Jurchen support and Chinese experience, Li’s logistics are still shaky. Plus given the successes of the allied navy, he doesn’t want to be completely dependent on seaborne supplies. That means instead of flooding the area with huge numbers of men and animals that need to be fed, like the Japanese expedition, Li has concentrated on making his men as individually dangerous as possible instead. “I need no more swords or spears or bows, but muskets, muskets, and more muskets,” Li is reported to have said. By spring, at least 6000 of his troops are armed with a flintlock musket and ring ambrolar combination that is copied from an Ottoman example sent via the Silk Road. The Ottoman weapon is itself a copy of the Roman D3 musket; after capturing models in Syria the Ottomans immediately began making their own.

Far more immediately obvious is the storm of artillery Li Rusong unleashes, 330 cannons to the 130 allied pieces. The sheer firepower smashes apart the defensive line, the best Chinese troops racing into the gaps, not to seize territory but make havoc, snarling Konishi’s efforts to restore his position. Badly mauled, the allied army gives way, retreating back down the road to Kaesong, the Chinese slashing at the rear. A Roman attaché, a veteran of the Danube campaign, is reminded of the German retreat from Ruse, where a Korean rearguard manages, at the cost of its own near-annihilation, to keep the pursuers at bay.

Not wanting to be pinned down, Konishi reinforces the Kaesong garrison but pulls back to Panmunjom with the bulk of his army. Kaesong is well manned and equipped for a siege, with plentiful provisions, powder, and artillery, but that is at the expense of the field army. Many invaluable stores had been lost at the Yesong, while all that can be spared was deposited in Kaesong. To stay in the field, the allied army desperately needs new kit.

Due to the urgency, sea transport is the only option, with vessels sailing from southern Korea and Japan to the mouth of the Imjin River, carrying everything from rice to bullets to shoes. Much to Yi Sun-sin’s frustration, he is again tied down to convoy duty, escorting the slow transports on their hauls rather than hunting the enemy as he would prefer. A few scattered attacks on the convoy achieve little save to scare allied command, which continues to deny Yi permission to go on the offensive as a result.

Li is most grateful as he has issues of his own. There was a limit to how much he was able to stockpile over the winter and the mass artillery barrage used up much of the gunpowder he’d already accumulated. Lacking the firepower he had at the Yesong, his initial assault on Kaesong, despite the low morale of the garrison, is hurled back with over a thousand casualties. Again he is forced to settle down into a siege of the stubborn city, Chinese supply ships putting in at Haeju with their essential cargoes.

Even the relatively short land route from Haeju to Kaesong is threatened by Korean partisans holed up in the Molak Mountains, but those by themselves are manageable from the Chinese perspective.

As are the raids on the seaborne part of the supply lines. Yi Sun-sin’s fleet is mostly locked down in convoying, but he finds an outlet for his aggressiveness by letting loose the Roman ships. In Seoul, King Danjong and the court are mostly concerned with the actions of the Koreans under Yi’s command; they have little authority over or ability to punish the Roman portion of the fleet. The Japanese, on the other hand, after asking for the ships, feel it would be best for the Romans to decide the best way they should be used, so long as they be used. Considering the Roman-Spanish battles off Java, there is some concern that if they don’t let the Romans act aggressively, the Romans might decide to vacate the theater. The Romans, after all, have little stake in the fight save to keep the goodwill of the Japanese. (Japanese ships are, like the Koreans, tied down in convoy escort duty because of Osaka’s concerns for the vulnerable transports.)

Most of the Chinese vessels are sailing in convoys too big and well-armed to be attacked by the comparatively few Roman ships. The Romans concentrate on snapping at isolated ships and raiding coastal detachments, on a few occasions landing equipment for Righteous Armies or even raiding parties. The most notable successes are scored by Leo Kalomeros and the Octopus. Happening on the remnants of a convoy that had been scattered by a storm, in a three day spree off Sochong Island he captures or sinks six Chinese junks, two of them well-armed escorts.

Despite these small victories, they are still pinpricks to the Chinese, painful but nowhere near fatal. Yi has over a hundred and eighty panokseons at his command, but the raids are by a mere eleven Roman ships, soon reduced to nine. A fifth-rater hits an underwater rock and sinks with the loss of all her equipment, a particularly heavy blow even though the crew is saved. Two weeks later a Roman fregata gets pinned up against Cho Island by five war-junks and is blasted to pieces.

The Romans on the spot also have their hands tied by orders from their superior, the Katepano of Pyrgos. The Katepano sent the ships to retain the goodwill of the Japanese Emperor, but he does not want to risk the ire of the Chinese Emperor either by too brazenly helping the Japanese. The Roman ships can fight in Japanese and Korean waters, but are not to wage war in Chinese waters (and in the brief, the Liaodong is considered Chinese). With proposed attacks on the Chinese coast thus mooted, the Roman fourth-raters, the most powerful warships north of Borneo but too slow for raiding, are left without a clear mission and stuck on convoy duty along with the panokseons.

Meanwhile the fighting around Kaesong is intense. After resupplying his army, Konishi probes the Chinese siege lines but an early probe is ambushed and cut to pieces. Alarmed, Seoul orders him to stay on the defensive, rather than the big push to relieve Kaesong that Konishi had been planning. As the Korean portion of the army increases (Korean reinforcements are arriving but not Japanese ones) and since he is dependent almost entirely on the Koreans for logistics, despite Konishi’s status as Supreme Allied Commander he is forced to listen when Seoul speaks. After the debacle at Anshan and all the repercussions, the wisdom at Seoul is to not commit to any large battles but to rely on harassment and defensive fighting.

Under relentless attack with no sign of relief and a growing belief that they have been abandoned to die, the morale of the Kaesong garrison gives out as their rations do. After a two-month siege they surrender to Li Rusong, who treats them well and parades them through the Chinese-controlled settlements of northern Korea. The stories of the good treatment from Li Rusong in contrast to the lack of support from Seoul that seems content to leave them as meat shields has some effect, as a few Righteous Armies take the pardon offered by Li Rusong to disband.

With Kaesong in his hands, Li marches on the Imjin River line. Konishi stands to the defensive, but unleashes a few cavalry raids behind the Chinese lines, mainly to encourage the remaining Righteous Armies. While the attacks on the Chinese are easily beaten off by the superior Chinese cavalry, they do succeed in their main goal of getting some equipment to the Righteous Armies and boosting their morale. But to Konishi’s rage he receives a rebuke from Seoul. Even doing that token offensive work is apparently too much for King Danjong and his court.

The Korean court is blindsided on September 3 when a combined message arrives from Konishi, Yi Sun-sin, and the Roman naval commander, although if they’d been paying closer attention to their mood they could not have been shocked. All are absolutely outraged at the restrictions imposed on them and demand to be let loose. Yi, as a Korean subject, is very diplomatic, but the Japanese and Romans are decidedly less so. The Romans go so far as to threaten to withdraw their naval forces. Their fourth-raters are wasted here but are needed in Java. Given Konishi’s own displeasure, such a threat is much less damaging to Roman-Japanese goodwill as it would’ve been even a few weeks earlier. Stunned, the Korean court gives way.

Ironically, Konishi for his part remains on the defensive, blocking Li’s advance across the Imjin but doing no more than raiding and supporting the Righteous Armies. Right now the plan is only for the navy to attack, but a joint protest from both the army and navy undoubtedly had a much greater impact on the Seoul court than just one from Yi. Yi, in contrast, gathers the full force of the fleet, some 217 warships of varying types and sizes, and sails toward Haeju Bay.

The Chinese fleet, which comprises the bulk of Zeng naval strength, opposing him is slightly larger, mustering 262 warships of varying types and sizes. For a time there is a standoff as Yi tries to lure the Chinese out into deeper waters while the new Chinese commander, wise to Yi’s tactics from last year, declines. But the Chinese cannot remain quiescent for long; with Yi in Haeju Bay, Li’s supply line is effectively cut.

On September 15, with the wind at their backs, the Chinese finally sally out. Yi’s battle array is similar to his previous battles, with the Roman ships in the center and panokseons and Japanese ships on the wings, both sides in a west-east line with the Chinese to the north. As the Chinese approach, the panokseons begin maneuvering to take the enemy in the flanks, the Chinese extending their line to avoid that outcome.

As the Chinese line thins, the panokseons on the wings suddenly swivel and charge into, rather than around, the Chinese fleet, each wing punching through and isolating the Chinese fleet into three sections. Disordered and confused, the Chinese response is as fragmented as their fleet. The Chinese admiral in the central section orders the west and east sections to wheel inward and cut the Koreans in half in their turn, but the two sections either fail to see or ignore his commands.

The east Chinese section, faced with only distant cannonading from the enemy on one side and the open sea on the other, makes a break for it and escapes intact. The west section is more tightly pressed, pinned between the Korean coast on the one hand and shorter-range enemy barrages on the other. However the allies are focused mainly on the central section, allowing the western ships to squeeze through the gap albeit with serious losses. The central section, completely surrounded by the enemy, is pounded to pieces over the course of the afternoon and annihilated.

The battle of Haeju Bay is far from a complete sweep; 159 Chinese ships escape and regroup at the port of Nampo. But it is a battered and demoralized fleet that has also lost its largest and most powerful warships which had been concentrated in the center. Allied losses of twenty panokseons, four Japanese vessels, and a Roman fifth-rate that is shot up so badly that it is dismantled rather than repaired, plus another thirty ships damaged, are heavy but well worth the price. To compound the Chinese pain, a supply convoy sails in Haeju Bay on September 20th ignorant of the battle and is snapped up by the allied fleet.

When he receives the news of Haeju Bay, Li Rusong knows his offensive is done. Badly wrecked Kaesong would make for a poor forward base and maintaining supply lines entirely bad land that far south against Righteous Armies near impossible. Grimly, he begins a march north, the allied army following but cautiously.

Li halts his retreat at the Taesong River, which means he keeps control of Pyongyang and the port of Nampo, which now functions as a new northern version of Haeju port. Konishi attempts to break through the Chinese lines and take Pyongyang, but he is now suffering from supply issues. The area between Pyongyang and Kaesong has been ravaged by fighting and Chinese requisitions, leaving nothing for the allied troops. In contrast, Li’s logistics have improved somewhat with a convoy arriving in Nampo and shorter land lines that are easier to protect.

Yi attempts to blockade Nampo and force another battle to finish what he started, but while the fleet is rounding Changsan Cape a storm brews up and batters the flotilla enough that he reluctantly turns around back to Inchon. With that, active campaigning ceases for the year although small raids, ambuscades, and skirmishes continue.

The Jingtai Emperor and the Luoyang court are far from pleased at the news from Korea, but again they place the blame on the navy rather than Li Rusong. After the battle of Haeju Bay, the opinion of the Luoyang court is now divided. Subduing the whole Korean peninsula is clearly impossible, but some feel that a Pyongyang commandery in the north is still possible and would help compensate for the costs of the war. Others feel that Korea should be abandoned; the main prize Liaodong has already been secured and all forces should be sent to protect that. However even those who favor pulling out of Korea fear that doing so will open the possibility of yet another foreign invasion of China. As long as Li and his army are in Pyongyang that will not happen. So for now the Chinese army in Korea remains where it is. The Koreans, meanwhile, are committed to driving the Chinese completely out of the peninsula. The war will continue.
 
Jingtai Emperor should move more soldier-farmers into occupied territory to have them farm and occupy territory if the navy is not up to scratch.This could potentially shorten the supply line, help suppress guerrillas and allow Li Rusong’s main forces to engage the coalition army instead of garrison occupied territories.They need not fight like the Japanese did, considering China’s superior resources and land border with Korea. They have ample of advantages compared to the Japanese.
 
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Cryostorm

Monthly Donor
I admit I completely spaced on the naming of the Pacific. There hasn’t been much exploring of it; knowledge is comparable to the OTL point in time. There’s the stretch covered by the Pyrgos galleons between the Herakleians and Mexico, plus some poking around New Guinea and the Solomons, but the likes of New Zealand, Tahiti, Hawaii, and Alaska are completely unknown (save to the inhabitants).
For the name of the Pacific, you could have it named after the gold and silver galleons that cross it or reference to its vast apparent emptiness.

For maximum irony maybe a major typhoon rips through the area, maybe during the Spanish Armada's attack, and it gets named for the massive and powerful storms that cross it. The Tempest, Typhon, or Zeus Ocean certainly has a ring to it, or maybe even the Kamikaze Ocean.
 
The seapowers that cross first and most often have the best chance to put a name on the charts. Which power is that and we can speculate from there.
 
Nice to see Kalomeros get some action, I hope he rises through the ranks again. He will really see the world in his life, books about him should be a fun read :)
 
"Considering the Roman-Spanish battles off Java..."

"The Romans go so far as to threaten to withdraw their naval forces. Their fourth-raters are wasted here but are needed in Java."

Looks like the Armada made it with enough ships/crew intact to cause some damage after all.

Great update!
 
Looks like we may be getting Chinese (North) Korea and a Japanese dominated (South) Korea. No doubt this Will be the first of many conflicts between the Chinese and Japanese empires.
 
Great update as expected B444 :)

I love the hints at what is happening elsewhere.

I won't deny that I'm a little surprised that the Romans aren't able to provide some expertise in terms of logistical support (although I suppose they may be more naval-focused in this theatre). Here's hoping that the more aggressive naval action will allow the armies to focus on a northern campaign supplied by the sea, it'd be a great result if Korea ends up a major naval threat at the end of this war. Particularly if a certain Admiral can fortify Lushan. It might make up for a loss of territory, but being able to strangle Chinese logistics from there would be a silver lining to the war that is happening right now.
 
For the name of the Pacific, you could have it named after the gold and silver galleons that cross it or reference to its vast apparent emptiness.

For maximum irony maybe a major typhoon rips through the area, maybe during the Spanish Armada's attack, and it gets named for the massive and powerful storms that cross it. The Tempest, Typhon, or Zeus Ocean certainly has a ring to it, or maybe even the Kamikaze Ocean.
The Andrean ocean or the Niketan ocean. It has a temper... like king David's dad (yes that Andreas) had and the first Europeans to reach it TTL were probably the conquest of Mexico and Peru. :angel:
 
"Considering the Roman-Spanish battles off Java..."

"The Romans go so far as to threaten to withdraw their naval forces. Their fourth-raters are wasted here but are needed in Java."

Looks like the Armada made it with enough ships/crew intact to cause some damage after all.

Great update!
Oh I don't think anyone was questioning THAT. Merely the widsom of the act or what will happen if Demetrios decides to react in the Mediterranean instead. Or for that matter what will be left of Spanish trade when Greek privateers go after it like locusts with the White Palace's blessings.
 
Oh I don't think anyone was questioning THAT. Merely the widsom of the act or what will happen if Demetrios decides to react in the Mediterranean instead. Or for that matter what will be left of Spanish trade when Greek privateers go after it like locusts with the White Palace's blessings.
There were posts in this thread saying that if the Armada made it to Island Asia it would be ASB.

As far as your main point - it is clear the Spanish are acting emotional rather than rational and there's a very good chance that emotion will bite them in the ass hard once the dust settles. There's nothing implausible about that; history (OTL and ITTL) is chock full of people who act before thinking things through.

What's the line from Godfather III? "Never hate your enemies, it clouds your thinking."
 
There were posts in this thread saying that if the Armada made it to Island Asia it would be ASB.

As far as your main point - it is clear the Spanish are acting emotional rather than rational and there's a very good chance that emotion will bite them in the ass hard once the dust settles. There's nothing implausible about that; history (OTL and ITTL) is chock full of people who act before thinking things through.

What's the line from Godfather III? "Never hate your enemies, it clouds your thinking."
I was actually joking about how the weather is said to have played a part in all three Spanish Armada's downfall IOTL: and the cape's general reputation.

Although I was placing my money on the Cape's weather doing them in. I owe myself 50 bucks now!
 
I was actually joking about how the weather is said to have played a part in all three Spanish Armada's downfall IOTL: and the cape's general reputation.

Although I was placing my money on the Cape's weather doing them in. I owe myself 50 bucks now!
we still don’t know the strength of the Spanish Armada that’s made it. If 20 ships leave Lisbon and half sink on the way that’s still an extra 10 warships arriving all at once. It would still give Spain in the East a powerful shot in the arm but would still be looked at in hindsight as a disaster.

The fact that Rhoman ships would be appreciated but are not rushed immediately or even pointless gives some credence to the idea that though the Spanish were able to get some reinforcements to Island Asia they were not in overwhelming force to the Eastern Despotates. So though it has been a shot in the arm to Spanish Asia I don’t think it will be the flood of ships and cannon that sweeps aside opposition.
 
There were posts in this thread saying that if the Armada made it to Island Asia it would be ASB.

As far as your main point - it is clear the Spanish are acting emotional rather than rational and there's a very good chance that emotion will bite them in the ass hard once the dust settles. There's nothing implausible about that; history (OTL and ITTL) is chock full of people who act before thinking things through.

What's the line from Godfather III? "Never hate your enemies, it clouds your thinking."
It’s just a slightly more insane version of the already pretty bizarre decision by the Russians to send their European fleet to the Far East.
 
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Sounds like abother good opportunity for Kalomeros to make a name for himself, let’s say the Romans and Spanish are roughly even after the Armada arrives, it’s the reinforcements from the Korean front that turns the tide!
 
This isn’t a proper response post (that will be coming later, I promise) but I wanted to address this specifically now because, frankly, it’s really starting to p*** me off.

There were posts in this thread saying that if the Armada made it to Island Asia it would be ASB.
we still don’t know the strength of the Spanish Armada that’s made it. If 20 ships leave Lisbon and half sink on the way that’s still an extra 10 warships arriving all at once. It would still give Spain in the East a powerful shot in the arm but would still be looked at in hindsight as a disaster.
It’s just a slightly more insane version of the Russians sending their European fleet to the Far East.
If you’re going to criticize my writing (which is your right to do) and call something ASB or insane, at least do me the courtesy of applying it to stuff I have actually written and presented.

To quote the exact lines that started this thread: “And so King Ferdinand approves an expedition to reinforce Spanish holdings there and to wage war against the Romans beyond the line. It will be the greatest Latin armament dispatched to the east in history at that point.”

I was originally going to jokingly call this a Spanish Armada, but now I am consciously avoiding using the term. Because even if this could be called a Spanish Armada, it is not the Spanish Armada of OTL. But that seems to be the impression here. I take tons of inspiration from OTL; that’s not a surprise. Sometimes it’s pretty similar to OTL, just slightly redecorated, to be honest. But even when I’m making tongue-in-cheek references to OTL, I’m not necessarily going to do a straight cut-and-paste. The actual OTL inspiration for this is Pierre André de Suffren’s expedition in the Indian Ocean against the British during the American War of Independence.

Now to get some OTL history in here, between 1500-1635 it is estimated that 912 ships left Portugal for eastern waters and 768 made it, the success percentage being 84.2%. [The Portuguese Seaborne Empire: 1415-1825 by Charles R. Boxer, pg. 219] As for the 15.8% that didn’t make it, the failure could be because the voyage was aborted for some reason (sailing too late?), or captured/sunk by enemy ships, or sunk by storms or shipwreck. Based on that, the odds of any one particular ship being sunk by storm on the way to the Indian Ocean are, while not insignificant, also not that big, certainly nowhere near the ‘any large fleet will automatically take crippling losses in shipping’ category. Now, losses in manpower on these ships were very high, often as high as a third to a half on ships that got it particularly bad, but that is in losses of sailors and passengers, not ships, and the conversation is fixated on losses of ships.

Now, to take a look at OTL abilities to project large fleets to distant waters in this time period, consider the following. As early as 1606 the Dutch East India Company, just 4 years old at that point, sent a fleet of 11 ships to the Strait of Malacca. In 1624 it sent another fleet of 11 ships to Indonesia, except this one went via the Strait of Magellan and raided Spanish Peru and Mexico before sailing across the Pacific (and this was at the same time the Dutch West India Company was invading Brazil) [Boxer, pg. 109].

So based on that, I think a major Spanish expedition to eastern waters is quite feasible, and it suffering crippling losses in ships actually being very improbable. Especially considering that I’ve repeatedly stated that proper large warships in the east are very thin on the ground, meaning that the bar for a ‘major’ expedition is much lower than would be the case for the Mediterranean or English Channel.
 
Expedition Snip
Additionally, after reading up on the OTL Spanish Armadas, it seems what did them in was bad weather/winds close to the target. This scattered them too close to the English to recover. Also, it was English tactics that put the first one into the position that got the winds to do it in.

The Indian Ocean is plenty large enough to neatly avoid the scattering issue. They'll have plenty of time to regroup before hitting the east indies and those wooden ships were a bit better at surviving storms than we give them credit for.
 
Additionally, after reading up on the OTL Spanish Armadas, it seems what did them in was bad weather/winds close to the target. This scattered them too close to the English to recover. Also, it was English tactics that put the first one into the position that got the winds to do it in.

The Indian Ocean is plenty large enough to neatly avoid the scattering issue. They'll have plenty of time to regroup before hitting the east indies and those wooden ships were a bit better at surviving storms than we give them credit for.
I think you're making a mistake even comparing the real "Spanish Armada" to this expedition. Completely different technology, scale and theater of operations. It has absolutely no similarities other than country of origin.
 
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