An Age of Miracles Continues: The Empire of Rhomania

This leads to my question with ottomans and triple monarchy working can the triple monarchy not sell them boats and build them a dedicated fleet? If the triple are struggerling to project surely selling ottomans a navy could help.

Btw this isn't me complaining about ottomans just curious about the naval situation.
If I recall correctly it is because the Omani and Ethiopians dismantled their fleet during the last war, that the Ottomans have decided that it isn't worth it at the moment - which has meant that they're focusing much more on their overland connections with China.

Personally I agree with you, the Ottomans probably ought to have a fleet, but to really become a naval force at the moment they'd need to outclass
1) Oman
2) Ethiopia
3) The Romans
4) Vijayanagar

1,2, and 3 are allies - so they'd have to be outclassed together. If they can form an alliance with 4, then they don't need a fleet - Vijayanagar is paying for their own.

Sadly short of the protected internal reforms the Ottomans are not in a great situation, their main lifelines are their geographic advantage defensively, and the routes to China.

Personally I think the internal reforms do need to include urbanisation in the eastern reaches to establish a more robust control over the Afghans (and effectively create another pool to recruit from) - and focus on securing Central Asia. It isn't Mesopotamia, but working on those areas, and perhaps even engaging in public works to improve access to glacier-melt and other water sources could transform the region.
 
If I recall correctly it is because the Omani and Ethiopians dismantled their fleet during the last war, that the Ottomans have decided that it isn't worth it at the moment - which has meant that they're focusing much more on their overland connections with China.

Personally I agree with you, the Ottomans probably ought to have a fleet, but to really become a naval force at the moment they'd need to outclass
1) Oman
2) Ethiopia
3) The Romans
4) Vijayanagar

1,2, and 3 are allies - so they'd have to be outclassed together. If they can form an alliance with 4, then they don't need a fleet - Vijayanagar is paying for their own.

Sadly short of the protected internal reforms the Ottomans are not in a great situation, their main lifelines are their geographic advantage defensively, and the routes to China.

Personally I think the internal reforms do need to include urbanisation in the eastern reaches to establish a more robust control over the Afghans (and effectively create another pool to recruit from) - and focus on securing Central Asia. It isn't Mesopotamia, but working on those areas, and perhaps even engaging in public works to improve access to glacier-melt and other water sources could transform the region.
Again just to clarify im not complaining about 'wah weak muslim' rather i get ottomans not being a naval but logic still need one to strong enough to to stop general blockade ottomans need to only a force strong enough to stop oman or Ethiopia from blockading them at will.

As both can easily raise fleets.
 
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Again just to clarify im not complaining about 'wah weak muslim' rather i get ottomans not being a naval but logic still need one to strong enough to to stop general blockade ottomans need to only a force strong enough to stop oman or Ethiopia from blockading them at will.

As both can easily raise fleets.
Dude he just explained the Ottomans had their fleet sunk so they decided not to compete where such a thing is hopeless. They are working on promoting overland routes of trade to mitigate the damage of that choice.

As for why they haven't bought Triune ships keep in mind that this is the 17th century. Getting a warship across the globe is a big deal and phenomenally expensive. That is all in addition to the costs of building the damn thing. It's frankly too expensive. Largest scale purchase of warships from other countries did not begin iotl until the privatization of warship construction in the industrial revolution since ships got cheaper for the amount of firepower they carried, easier to source by multiple competing firms, and could get to the client quicker and more reliably by coaling rather than sailing.
 
Again just to clarify im not complaining about 'wah weak muslim' rather i get ottomans not being a naval but logic still need one to strong enough to to stop general blockade ottomans need to only a force strong enough to stop oman or Ethiopia from blockading them at will.

As both can easily raise fleets.
Dude he just explained the Ottomans had their fleet sunk so they decided not to compete where such a thing is hopeless. They are working on promoting overland routes of trade to mitigate the damage of that choice.

As for why they haven't bought Triune ships keep in mind that this is the 17th century. Getting a warship across the globe is a big deal and phenomenally expensive. That is all in addition to the costs of building the damn thing. It's frankly too expensive. Largest scale purchase of warships from other countries did not begin iotl until the privatization of warship construction in the industrial revolution since ships got cheaper for the amount of firepower they carried, easier to source by multiple competing firms, and could get to the client quicker and more reliably by coaling rather than sailing.
The idea of a force strong enough to stop a blockade is really a strong enough force that it can't be bottled in. For Oman the Ottomans having a strong enough force for that would mean an existential threat to Muscat. They'd escalate their ship production. For Ethiopia it threatens whatever hope they have of making moves in their Indian territory. For the Romans it means a navy positioned to hit the artery of their eastern trade. It's why all three have no interest in pissing off Vijayanagar - as to be strong enough to prevent a blockade, it needs to be strong enough to fight off the regional navies of their opponents. - as Evilprodigy highlights that doing so, especially by purchase is prohibitively expensive, especially as it isn't like these ships will pay for themselves. They'd need to have an objective that would justify their cost. One option is to take over Oman Proper, which would radically change the balance of power, but doesn't exactly steer any trade revenues their way - and still would involve Constantinople and Gonder.

The key targets to transform the Indian Ocean for the Ottomans would be to control Muscat, and thus the strait - and ideally Ceylon - breaking the Roman East Indies connections to the Empire proper. It's a huge endeavour. It would be a more effective strategy to partner up with Vijayanagar and China - Vijayanagar would isolate the Roman East Indies easily, and handle the brunt of a naval war, enabling the Ottomans to focus on a land war and potentially smaller invasions of Oman. China can then overwhelm the Roman East Indies, with the only threat being Japan. That is also a HUGE diplomatic effort to engineer. The Ottomans sadly don't really have any way of getting into the naval geopolitics of the Indian Ocean themselves, but it's clear what side they'd want to be on. Not until they've participated in a conflict where the current naval heavy-hitters do the heavy lifting, and the Ottomans can grab some prizes for themselves.

In the meantime, preparing for a future war and making those diplomatic moves isn't a bad road. At the moment the Ottomans are holding a poisoned chalice that has yet to kick in, and afterwards will be weaker - and significantly - overlooked. Being overlooked is a great stepping stone to being a disruption later on, and in this case all that naval investment can go towards internal, and land, development - which will be needed if they do lose Mesopotamia entirely, especially as that starts to limit good places for a navy.

What might transform this is the Ottomans being one of the first adopters of coaling. To this day they still have substantial coal resources to exploit. That will be when the Ottoman navy shines - a small fleet of metal beasts that ignore the wind, and crack the naval status quo.

I'd also add that it should be remembered that whilst Mesopotamia is rich, it is also hard to defend. Losing Mesopotamia to the Romans does hurt Ottoman finances, and boost the Roman ones, but also costs the Romans to hold, and that expense isn't borne by the Ottomans against the Romans.
 
What might transform this is the Ottomans being one of the first adopters of coaling. To this day they still have substantial coal resources to exploit. That will be when the Ottoman navy shines - a small fleet of metal beasts that ignore the wind, and crack the naval status quo.
Is this coal even remotely accessible with pre-industrial or early industrial technology?
 
What might transform this is the Ottomans being one of the first adopters of coaling. To this day they still have substantial coal resources to exploit. That will be when the Ottoman navy shines - a small fleet of metal beasts that ignore the wind, and crack the naval status quo
So ottoman naval failure should in some sense lead to ottoman to develop metal ships which will invalidate the sail base ships of the omani and Ethiopia so they can finally project.

Dude he just explained the Ottomans had their fleet sunk so they decided not to compete where such a thing is hopeless.
That wasn't stated. Omani and ethopian naval power was closed. Ottomans i asked before pages earlier couldn't compete, focused mainly on land. But it was stated they relied on triune to naval fight for them. That's why im asking if selling ships would be logical as ottomans clearly want trade through land. Im not trying to to insult people, Im just asking as you lot are smarter to help me understand.
 
So ottoman naval failure should in some sense lead to ottoman to develop metal ships which will invalidate the sail base ships of the omani and Ethiopia so they can finally project.
The other main component of that is iron, and of course a steel industry.

Some quick googling shows Iran seems to have some significant iron deposits in the central areas and today is the 6th largest iron ore producer with numbers from 2009 of either 25.5 or 33 million tons. I don't know how Iranian production would compare when using pre-industrial or early industrial technology, as the iron they are exploiting to make them such a large producer might not have become accessible until recently. I just found pig iron sources for Britain, which is refined and thus a later stage of the iron production so per pound is far more significant production of iron ore . It was 1.3 million in 1840, 6.7 million in 1870, and 10.4 million in 1913. I am unsure how that number fully compares to ore production in modern Iran but it is telling that Iran is ranked very high in the iron ore production business.

Some Googling shows that Iran also mines 1.3 million short tonnes of coal and consume 1.5 yearly, again using modern numbers here. Britain meanwhile produced 5.2 million in 1750 and 62.5 million in 1850.

I don't think Ottoman energy sources will be significant enough to make them a steel-making powerhouse. Keep in mind that steel has to be cheap to be used viably and the biggest limiting factor in early industrial technology is access to cheap energy. Plentiful coal translates directly to local industrial territory. You can transport iron and coal but you need a certain ratio. IIRC it was 1 pound of iron needs 10 pounds of coal until the development of the Bessemer Process in the 1850s and later blast furnace developments made it a 1:1 ratio by the end of the 19th century. Such energy costs crippled France's early industrial development despite their massive quantity of Iron Ore until the technologies became more energy efficient and thus reduced the largest cost for a coal importer. This is why industrial centres invariably appeared near coal deposits IOTL, the cheap energy (due to being located nearby and thus having low transportation costs) was of profound importance.

I think Iran, much like Rhome, is fucked by their natural resources. Turkey produced 100 million tonnes of coal in 2018, almost all of it lignite, but apparently all of it requires significant digging to get to. So it won't be cheap and will rely on later developments in industrial technology to obtain. Add to this production from the Balkans, which in Greece is over 49 million tonnes of lignite (couldn't find national production figures) and in Bulgaria is 16.8 million tonnes, again mostly lignite.

The Rhomans should have enough coal once it is accessible to kick off an industrial revolution once these sources become accessible. The Ottomans, meanwhile, will need to wait for developments in oil and natural gas to get enough energy resources to really industrialize their economy. The same will be true of Georgia and Wallachia, given their oil and gas resources, while Egypt and Sicily with fuck all energy reserves need to wait until technology becomes good enough for cheap transportation of energy (as well as energy efficient later industrial technologies) via mass produced coal sent in ships, gas and oil via pipelines, or for renewable energy to be viable, and that necessitates the invention of electricity.

That wasn't stated. Omani and ethopian naval power was closed. Ottomans i asked before pages earlier couldn't compete, focused mainly on land. But it was stated they relied on triune to naval fight for them. That's why im asking if selling ships would be logical as ottomans clearly want trade through land. Im not trying to to insult people, Im just asking as you lot are smarter to help me understand.
I think there was some sort of communication issue because that was absolutely what he said. You asked 'Why have the Triunes not given the Ottomans a navy?' He told you 'because the Ottoman navy was destroyed and they decided it wasn't worth their time and energy, which could be better used elsewhere on overland trade.'

Have you read the timeline yet? The rest of us are mostly just parroting what has already been stated there.
 
So ottoman naval failure should in some sense lead to ottoman to develop metal ships which will invalidate the sail base ships of the omani and Ethiopia so they can finally project.
Metal hulled ships. With late 17th century technology. Good luck with that for the next couple centuries.
 
Have you read the timeline yet? The rest of us are mostly just parroting what has already been stated there.
I read it a while back, i recently re-read the triple monarchy (they gained south Africa so can they not use it a base to work off), the post after that and india one, also maps reminded oman took persian coastline in real life could oman do this in the war of wrath, thats what caused me to ask, about triple monarchy selling ships.

Again he stated oman and ethopia dismantled there fleet after the last war. Ottomans have decided its not worth building a navy post war, i took on literal face value. My question first is asking in a post war scene and also as precautionary measure, as both ethopia and oman can raise fleets. Im not saying why don't they build an armada, but a small fleet to keep the coast guarded and in any future conflict they don't get bottled up completely im not asking them to challange oman and ethopia on the high seas.
 
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Are we really doing this song and dance, again? This is what, the third time now?
The amount of conjecture on the War of Wrath is distracting and just conjecture. Neither of you are more correct than the other because we don't know squat about what it will be like. Thinking so far into the future is a pointless exercise other than in big broad strokes or when tied to historical constants like geography or natural disasters.
you think this is bad on the all nations tshall gather to it thread there was a big discussion about arab nationlism, the timeline currently a couple decades after the first crusade...
 
you think this is bad on the all nations tshall gather to it thread there was a big discussion about arab nationlism, the timeline currently a couple decades after the first crusade...
fuck man, a link to that shit show would be appreciated.

How many (You)s did the initial poster gather?
 
I read it a while back, i recently re-read the triple monarchy (they gained south Africa so can they not use it a base to work off), the post after that and india one, also maps reminded oman took persian coastline in real life could oman do this in the war of wrath, thats what caused me to ask, about triple monarchy selling ships.

Again he stated oman and ethopia dismantled there fleet after the last war. Ottomans have decided its not worth building a navy post war, i took on literal face value. My question first is asking in a post war scene and also as precautionary measure, as both ethopia and oman can raise fleets. Im not saying why don't they build an armada, but a small fleet to keep the coast guarded and in any future conflict they don't get bottled up completely im not asking them to challange oman and ethopia on the high seas.
In general terms, the ottomans are no position due to situation.

If you read the story, you should know they are demographically inferior, their finances are not as good as the Romans. B444 posted stats on Ottoman demographics and finances. There is even parts were the author wrote about literacy rates of ERE, assuming you read the story.

Even if Iskander the Great was alive, he wont invest on a very large navy when you are sandwhich by two large powerful, rich nations that can afford large armies. And you know you will have another round with the Romans, found out they can field 200,000 men, while you can only field below 100k and already your economy was havin difficulty.

Although Ottomans are a great power, they are not at the same tier as the Romans financially, to afford a standiny army to fight Romans and build a competent navy.

Nor are they leaders in science TTL to justify them a sudden tech advantage.

I suggest rereading again special parts on economies.
 
A couple points on why the Ottomans won’t build a navy and have fallen behind Rome.

1)Lets compare Rome, Ethiopia, Oman, and Ottos. Rome’s largest cities are Trebizond, Constantinople, Thessaloniki, Antioch, and Alexandria. All are coastal cities vulnerable to being sacked if naval control is lost. Roman economy also relies on control of Eastern Mediterranean and Black Sea. There is also the cultural scar of 1204 where was sacked from a seaward invasion plus relatively recent movement of corsairs all the way into Aegean.

Ethiopia- though no major centres on the coast they also have no peer land power and “the long night” in their cultural memory so though they are poor they are able to skimp on the army but have a cultural imperative to keep a navy as window to the world.

Oman- Muscat is a port and their economy relies on trade. Also surrounded by desert so as long as they maintain control of the sea invasion is difficult.

Ottomans- largest cities are Mosul(for now), Baghdad, Basra, Tehran, and until recently Kabul. Aside from Basra all are far inland. Cultural scars all concern land invasions either from Rome or Central Asia. Has landward access not only to China but also Gangetic plain(which is likely one of wealthiest regions in the world) so is reliant on land trade not sea trade.

All this combines into a situation where Ottomans just really don’t have a need for a navy beyond “wouldnt it be cool”. It is telling that no Persian based power OTL has ever built a blue water navy.

1A) For all the vaunted sea power of Ethiopia, Oman, and Rome they really don’t have the power to do anything but raid a couple small settlements. Why spend money stopping it when the ships and crew would cost more than just rebuilding the towns that are sacked. Alternatively if Rome, Oman, Ethiopia want to waste 20 warships and 15000 men wrecking an inconsequential port that doesn’t change the strategic outcome of the war...well that’s 15000 men then who aren’t marching into Mesopotamia and NEPersia.

2) It has only been in the last 2 generations that Rome has eclipsed the Ottomans and Iskander shielded that for one of those generations. Remember the Ottomans were standing on the banks of the Bosporus only 100 years ago and only a generation ago “won” their war with with Rome. It’s only due to the demetrian reforms that Rome has fully eclipsed the Ottomans and can afford a large army+navy. As late as 1632; we are only up to 1636; both sides considered each other a peer power.

3) The basic geography of the two empires favours Rome. Sea travel is an absolute order of magnitude better than even the best land based travel until railroads.

4) Cultural issues long term will favour Rome though this will lessen considerably after the next war. Romans(Greeks) have been a sedentary farming society now for over 2000+ years with all that comes from it; irrigation, roads, public works, etc. The Ottomans in comparison have until just the last couple hundred years been nomadic. Again as late as the last war the Ottomans were still reliant on ghazis and nomads for a lot of their Calvary. You know what nomads don’t build a lot of; irrigation, canals, public works etc. This leads to lower populations and poorer, less educated populations. Rome smashing the ghazis of Northern Mesopotamia and as we all suspect smashes them again in the 1640s the Ottomans may be able to force the rest of their nomadic peoples to settle and “professionalize” their Calvary arm.

5) The Ottomans long-term need to get their administration up a few levels long term if they don’t want to fall further behind. Due to geography and demographics they will never be a peer power to Rhome again but with proper administration and economic reforms they can make themselves too tough a but to crack which is what I suspect will happen in the decades after the War of Wrath.
 
Going to have to be short with response post again. Otherwise the next update is delayed. Thank you for understanding.

Just the catch I was waiting for.
Not only will rome have to deal with Persia, but possible support from china.
Not to mention the triple monarchy.
Can't wait for the Persian campaign to start.
I’m looking forward to it too. (But that doesn’t mean I’ll shortchange what’s going on beforehand; these are busy years.)

Odysseus and company look like they have their work cut out for them once hostilities resume in the early 1640s. Both sides know that Mosul is where the Rhoman hammer blow is going to fall.
Yup. The Ottomans are no slouches.

Wow this war with the Ottomans is going to be intense now that they don't have any Russians at their border Rhome is going to have to do all of the pushing. Fantastic update as always it gave some real amazing insight into asian geopolitics ttl!
Also here is the new and improved map, as always if you see something that looks inaccurate lmk and I'd be happy to fix it
Looking nice. One thing I noticed; TTL Mexico extends up to the OTL state of Durango. Actual control on the ground is shaky at best, but on a map it would be included.

(This is a jab at me for engineering this situation, not you.) Man, Vlachia’s borders are an eyesore.

I can't recall, do the Romans have an alliance with the Khazars? Just as there might be an easy way to diplomatically introduce them to Roman authority. Effectively provide them with the commanders and material to run the next Ottoman War in the north, and further to create a pseudo-Despotate of the Steppe under the Khazars.

It is interesting to see that the Steppe is seen as a significant strategic arena for major powers. That could be really interesting in the future, as we could have 4 external players, (Russia, Rhomanion, Ottomans, China) manipulating regional players, or potentially those regional players using this manipulation to their advantage.
The Romans don’t have a formal alliance with Khazaria. There is trade and Khazaria is in the Roman orbit in the sense that all Orthodox states are in the Roman orbit to some degree.

Guess this will be the first step to the reunification of the Rus. It'd be interesting to see who will eventually be crowned the new Great King (or will they adopt Tsar?).

Having the Romans continue to accumulate foreign thrones is neat, but isn't there a new big player in Lithuania? The Laskaris return to the throne definitely isn't a done deal.
The Sapiehas are the new big players in Lithuania, in large part due to Roman support. That said, if the Romans were to lean too heavily in favor of a Sapieha Megas Rigas, that could trigger a nativist Russian reaction.

If Basil has reached the Pacific Ocean, it won't be long before he finds the Japanese. How soon before we find a Orthodox alliance of Siberia and Japan ?

China might find that development to be detrimental to its interests.
Assuming they don’t start arguing over Sakhalin or the Kuriles or the like, not too long.

Not sure how Manchuria will look yet, but it won’t look anything like OTL.

Iskander the younger is a a reluctant muslim from what I understand and quite a fan of Rhoman culture do you think we could see him take steps to do light hellenization of his empire such as switching the alphabet to greek? Additionally what if a ttl version of the Bahai faith shows up and is able to take root in the reluctantly muslim Ottoman aristocracy and convince a large portion of the population convert? Obviously there would be resistance by the muslim population but they it'll be much harder to take a stand after the war of the wrath. I wonder if @Basileus444 has given any thought about the possibility of something like the Bahai showing up ttl
There won’t be any Hellenization like that; Persian and Arab have far too much clout. Obviously there is some Greek influence (for example, Iskandar) but it won’t go that far.

Haven’t given any thought to something like the Bahai.


Not going to get involved in discussion regarding Industrial Revolution or other items so far into the future anymore. There’s more than enough to deal with in the immediate and near future ITTL. If I try to handle that and the far-future stuff at the same time, I inevitably burn out. I’ll worry about the Industrial Revolution when it’s less than a century away.
 
The Lands Below the Winds: The Mainland
The Lands Below the Winds: The Mainland

Indochina, Southeast Asia, The Lands Below the Winds, regardless of the name one chooses, it is clear that this is a region of diverse and many terrains, environments, peoples, cultures, and states. Unlike China with its long periods of unification (and many periods of division as well, it must be said) or even India which saw brief periods of near unification at the heights of the Mauryan Empire and Delhi Sultanate, Southeast Asia has never been an Imperial power. The area is certainly no stranger to empire, with Srivijaya, the Cholas, Majapahit, and the Cham, amongst others, building powerful domains, but none, even at the height of their glory, came close to uniting all of the lands below the winds under a single banner.

A major reason for that is that this far-flung area is also a lightly peopled one, with population centers scattered few and far between. From the mountains of northern Burma to the volcanic islands of the Moluccas dwell 25 million people, less than that of Germany. Even Mataram, a demographic powerhouse by Indonesian standards, has 3 million people, comparable to that of the Thrakesian theme alone.

Because of the fragmentation and comparatively low population, western influence is much more broadly and deeply felt in Island Asia. An additional factor is that as a vast archipelago, western naval superiority has much greater influence than it does on the continental landmasses of India and China. Western influence is correspondingly less significant in the territorial kingdoms of mainland Indochina, where sea-power means less.

Not all of the mainland realms are large territorial monarchies. The Buddhist Kingdom of Arakan controls the Arakan coast between the Bay of Bengal and the mountains that shut it off from the polities of the Irrawaddy River valley. A maritime-focused state, the Arakanese are quite proficient pirates, still using native-type vessels but often arming them with the latest cannons, sometimes cooperating with the pirate towns of Madagascar. Arakan is also a center for the eastern slave trade; with the vast lands and smaller populations, control of people matters more than territory.

On the other side of the mountains, the Mon Kingdom of Pegu dominates the lower Irrawaddy. Its territory is small but heavily populated by the region’s standards, with Pegu herself claiming more than 110,000 inhabitants, making it one of the biggest in all of Southeast Asia. Controlling trade at the mouth of the Irrawaddy, with contacts as far away as Pyrgos and Osaka, Pegu is wealthy and prosperous, although that wealth makes its maritime traffic a frequent target of Arakanese pirates. As a result Pegu is allied with Sutanuti as they share a common enemy.

While the Arakanese can be annoying and sometimes painful, they are far from an existential threat. The same cannot be said for Pegu’s neighbor to the north, the Toungoo Kingdom which by 1630 dominates the middle Irrawaddy. The expansionistic aggressive monarchy eyes the wealth of Pegu enviously, although the Toungoo have yet to seriously push an attack.

A key factor in the lack of Toungoo offensives south is that the Toungoo have their own problems to their north. The Upper Irrawaddy lacks a large territorial monarchy on the model of the Toungoo or Pegu, but the newly formed Confederation of Shan States cannot be despised. The Shan States have the weakness of a coalition facing a unified foe but they have enough strength to make the Toungoo Kings hesitate in throwing all their might to the south.

Traveling east, the next great river network of Indochina is the Chao Phraya River, dominated by the Buddhist Siamese Kingdom of Ayutthaya. The capital city, also called Ayutthaya, is another great trading city with over a hundred thousand inhabitants, situated upriver from the coast where ocean-going and riverine craft meet to exchange cargoes.

The prominence of Ayutthaya as a local trading center is nothing new, but its prominence as a major international port is a development of the last generation. Improved rice-growing techniques in the fertile river valley have led to an agricultural explosion, the Thai producing a large rice surplus for export. The farmers have customers from all over Southeast Asia, not only locals but westerners as well.

Ayutthaya is a cosmopolitan center, with Triune visitors comparing it to Paris. [1] Foreigners live in settlements in the outer city, divided by nationality. There are Triune, Roman, Spanish, Lotharingian, Arletian, and even a Japanese community of some 500 merchants and their families and servants. Aside from rice, the Thais export vegetables, deerskins, and tropical woods, especially teak. The teak from Pegu and Ayutthaya is highly valuable as the best shipbuilding material in the region, although they are not the only sources of teak.

While Ayutthaya keeps its ports open to all who care to come and pay, the Spanish are paramount in Ayutthaya, to the extent that the Foreign Minister of King Naresuan is a Spaniard, Bernal Diaz del Castillo. A prosperous merchant with a suspiciously large amount of military experience, Bernal Diaz has no official affiliation with Lisbon but he certainly favors his countrymen in treatment. When King Naresuan expresses a desire for foreign aid to improve the standing army, still largely bow-and-sword infantry, Bernal Diaz promptly arranges the arrival of a Spanish military expedition that arrives in 1635 and punctually begins equipping and training Naresuan’s palace guard with gunpowder weaponry.

Ayutthaya, like the empires of India, is a mixed empire. Many areas of the kingdom are autonomous, owing tribute and military aid but otherwise left alone. The most prominent of these are Tenasserim and Nakhon Sri Thammarat. Some outside observers question whether the latter should really be considered part of Ayutthaya, as the city is exceptionally independently-minded. Far from Ayutthaya, Nakhon Sri Thammarat dominates the Kra Isthmus, the narrowest portion of the Malay Peninsula, where an overland trade route exists for merchants who wish to bypass Roman Pahang/Singapore and Spanish Malacca. Because of the wealth the city gains from this transit trade, the city is staunchly anti-Roman and anti-Spanish, favoring the Lotharingians.

The Roman Katepanate of Pahang, whose foundations date back to the exploits of Andreas Angelos “the Salty Prince”, the piratical illegitimate son of Andreas Niketas, dominates most of the east and south of the Malay Peninsula that lies south of the Kra Isthmus. Tin and gold mines were the main attractions for the Romans, although fisheries and tropical forest products are other important economic outputs.

Pahang rules a domain that looks similar to native states. There is a central core ruled directly by the monarch, in this case the Katepano, but much of the land is ruled by native vassals who provide tribute and military service. The more prominent vassals have Roman advisors though and the children of the elite are encouraged to get a Roman education, typically in Taprobane.

Spanish Malacca controls the western side of the Malay Peninsula south of the Kra Isthmus, in similar style to Roman Pahang. It is not on Pahang’s level when it comes to size, but otherwise the two are well matched. Malacca at 80000 people is twice the size of Pekan, the capital of Roman Pahang, and over five times that of Singapore. Malacca is far better situated than Pekan for maritime trade, being on the Straits of Malacca, while it is far better developed than much younger Singapore.

Returning north to Ayutthaya and then proceeding eastward, the next great river system is that of the Mekong and its tributaries. The political shift here is the sudden collapse of the once mighty Cham Empire which had dominated eastern Indochina since the late 1300s. The Cham had spread their suzerainty far, but the difficulty of projecting power over diverse and rugged lands and over many people meant, like other states, that the Cham devolved local power to vassals. However the exceptional stretch of the Cham Empire meant that the outlying vassals grew increasingly independent even as they paid lip service to the Cham. For many decades these vassals remained as de jure part of the Cham Empire, mainly because such vassalage cost them little. However the outbreak of a massive Vietnamese revolt strained the rotten structure and it collapsed in the late 1620s.

Along the Middle Mekong the city of Vientiane has filled the power vacuum, prospering through rice cultivation and local trade which help to finance the famous Buddhist temples of the area.

East of Vientiane lies the new Kingdom of Dai Viet, ruled over by the Le dynasty responsible for liberating the Vietnamese from their Cham overlords. Their power base is the Red River Delta and the new Vietnamese state has forged close ties with Zeng China, in large part due to Zeng aid in the rebellion. The Chinese had sought to cut the Cham down to size much as they’d done with the Khazars.

That said, the Vietnamese well remember the history of Chinese aggression toward them, so they remain wary. They maintain this wariness to all other foreigners as well, concerned about inviting in a new overlord after having just expelled the old. They are willing to allow some foreign trade but keep the foreigners under tight restrictions and surveillance. Not welcome are the Romans, well remembered for being allies to the Cham.

The Cham, although they have lost their empire, still control a respectable domain and remain a great power of the region. They control the coastline from Da Nang in the north to Kampot in the south, as well as the lower Mekong and Mekong Delta, the latter providing massive amounts of rice and fish, both for feeding the port cities and for export. Some could argue that even now, after the collapse, the Cham could still be considered an empire. There are still many Vietnamese living in the northern reaches of the Cham state while there is a large Khmer minority in the Mekong Delta.

The Cham are somewhat unusual for Indochina. Firstly, they are Hindus whilst all of their neighbors mostly practice variants of Buddhism. Furthermore, they are the one mainland native realm that is a reliable ally of the Romans, a fact of which the Katepanoi of Pahang and Pyrgos are well aware. They were both dismayed at the collapse of Cham power and much Roman effort, including the provision of weaponry, men, and even ships, was spent to prop up Cham power. Vietnamese pressure on the northern border of the Cham has not ceased even after the Cham Kings in Vijaya gave up any pretense of control north of Da Nang. South of that though the Cham are not willing to go. Six hundred years ago those lands were Cham; they were lost to the Viet once, they will not be lost again.

[1] Substitute French for Triune and this is OTL.
 
Not sure how Manchuria will look yet, but it won’t look anything like OTL.
It could play host to a Manchu realm that never conquers China, which is more than likely since the current Chinese Dynasty is still growing in power. I think this Manchu state (if it ever comes to pass) will instead look more locally, trying to conquer Korea or try to defy getting conquered by the Koreans.
I hope the Cham can make it this timeline. They are one of the more interesting states of Southeast Asian history.
They will survive into modernity. IIRC a future Triune scholar wrote a historical commentary on the early Modern Rhomans and included some racial science garbage about how modern Greeks and Cham are friends due to being fellow mongrel races.
 
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