Alternative South Korean presidential election, 2012
Scenario 1: Anh Cheol-soo did not drop out
Before Anh Cheol-soo dropped out to endorse Moon Jae-in, a Realmeter poll in September 2012 showed that Park Geun-hye (38.6%) was leading both Anh (22.5%) and Moon (26.1%). In OTL, it was believed that a divided liberal camp did not stand much chance against a unified conservative camp led by Park Geun-hye, daughter of late military dictator Park Chung-hee. As a result, Anh dropped out to endorse Moon, but a number of Anh's centrist supporters would ultimately choose to vote for Park instead.
Not seeing any chance of a liberal upest, Lee Jeong-hee of the left wing UPP would most likely have chosen to stay in the race, instead of having withdrawn from the race to endorse Moon Jae-in. Had Anh stayed in the race, the 2012 election could have looked something like this:
Please note that Anh Cheol-soo's support in the Jeolla region was far less significant than it is today before the 2016 National Assembly elections in OTL, and Moon Jae-in would very likely still have won the region by miles. While the presence of Anh may have boosted turnout among some voters, who would otherwise have stayed home, the feeling that Park Geun-hye was going to win anyway would drag down the turnout a bit, I believe that the voter turnout would be about 2 to 3 points lower than in OTL.
Scenario 2: Moon Jae-in dropped out in favour of Anh Cheol-soo
In 2012, Moon Jae-in could also have dropped out to stop Park Geun-hye from winning the election, had his poll numbers remained in dismay by October 2012, as he did in May or June 2012. Being more of a centrist and fresh-face candidate, Ahn Cheol-soo may seem to have a better chance to beat Park Geun-hye, but it was also where the problem comes - there was absolutely no way that left wing Unified Progressive nominee Lee Jung-hee would drop out in favor of a software entrepreneur. Far less dissatisfied supporters of Moon Jae-in would have jumped to the Park camp, but a number of them would have opted to vote for Lee Jung-hee instead in protest. In the end, Park Geun-hye would still have won against Ahn Cheol-soo.
Scenario 1: Anh Cheol-soo did not drop out
Before Anh Cheol-soo dropped out to endorse Moon Jae-in, a Realmeter poll in September 2012 showed that Park Geun-hye (38.6%) was leading both Anh (22.5%) and Moon (26.1%). In OTL, it was believed that a divided liberal camp did not stand much chance against a unified conservative camp led by Park Geun-hye, daughter of late military dictator Park Chung-hee. As a result, Anh dropped out to endorse Moon, but a number of Anh's centrist supporters would ultimately choose to vote for Park instead.
Not seeing any chance of a liberal upest, Lee Jeong-hee of the left wing UPP would most likely have chosen to stay in the race, instead of having withdrawn from the race to endorse Moon Jae-in. Had Anh stayed in the race, the 2012 election could have looked something like this:
Please note that Anh Cheol-soo's support in the Jeolla region was far less significant than it is today before the 2016 National Assembly elections in OTL, and Moon Jae-in would very likely still have won the region by miles. While the presence of Anh may have boosted turnout among some voters, who would otherwise have stayed home, the feeling that Park Geun-hye was going to win anyway would drag down the turnout a bit, I believe that the voter turnout would be about 2 to 3 points lower than in OTL.
Scenario 2: Moon Jae-in dropped out in favour of Anh Cheol-soo
In 2012, Moon Jae-in could also have dropped out to stop Park Geun-hye from winning the election, had his poll numbers remained in dismay by October 2012, as he did in May or June 2012. Being more of a centrist and fresh-face candidate, Ahn Cheol-soo may seem to have a better chance to beat Park Geun-hye, but it was also where the problem comes - there was absolutely no way that left wing Unified Progressive nominee Lee Jung-hee would drop out in favor of a software entrepreneur. Far less dissatisfied supporters of Moon Jae-in would have jumped to the Park camp, but a number of them would have opted to vote for Lee Jung-hee instead in protest. In the end, Park Geun-hye would still have won against Ahn Cheol-soo.
Last edited:
