So if we assume The Netherlands kept Belgium in 1830, will this butterfly the murder of Frans Ferdinand away?

If the answer is yes, what are other causes of ITTL WW1 (which will off course be very different)?
 
Some kind of large scale war is likely a given in this time frame. In OTL there have been a couple of crises, before WWI. However, the coalision system was largely settled by around 1907-19. To have a very different war I would suggest something like this:
1. The Fashoda incident in 1898, a colonial dipute between France and Britain.
2. The Dogger bank incident which allmost led to the UK entering the Russo-Japanese War on Japanese side.

Alternativly butterfly William II to be less of an idiot. And invent some other incident.
This can be some colonial dispute, e.g. in the Ottoman Empire or Persia, some other issue at the Balkans. An accidental military action at sea or something similar.
 
What about the Second Balkan War? In OTL Austria supported Bulgaria, while Russia backed Romania and Serbia.

If either San Petersburg or Vienna decides to fight directly in the war, it could easily develop in an earlier WW1. The main difference from the OTL conflict would be:

1) The Ottomans either staying neutral or siding with the Entente to retake lands lost to Bulgaria.

2) Italy probably remaining neutral as Giolitti is still the PM (OTL he opposed the Italian entry in WW1) and most of the army is busy in Lybia.
 
The Netherlands keeping Belgium will probably cause butterflies much sooner and likely will prevent WW1 as we know it.
 
Belgium remaining as part of the Netherlands would cauce such butterflies that politics and alliance systems of Europe would are very different. We wouldn't get recognsible world war there.
 
At the time the Assassination of Franz Ferdinand was not necessary as a casus belli for WW1.

An attempted assassination would arguably have been more than enough in the circumstances.
 
So if we assume The Netherlands kept Belgium in 1830, will this butterfly the murder of Frans Ferdinand away?

If the answer is yes, what are other causes of ITTL WW1 (which will off course be very different)?

If the PoD is in the first half of the 1800s and you want to figure out how to get a Great War similar to OTL's in around the same year then there's really nothing off the menu in terms of possible catalysts. It depends on how an author of the TL sees to get there, because Europe no longer having an independent Belgium changes the foreign policies of France, Netherlands, Britain, and Prussia/Germany.

A lot is going to be butterflied, especially if the Walloons break out of TTLs Netherlands at some point and the geopolitics surrounding such an event. By the time you get to 1870, Europe may be a totally different continent, and by 1900 you'll have totally different alliances.

One direction is an instigative France enflaming ethnic tensions in the Netherlands with a backdrop of their rivalry with GB that didn't really subside until the end of the 1800s in OTL. It's easy to imagine in this world's WWI for GB and France to be on different sides.

If you are authoring a Timeline, OP, you have a lot of freedom to steer Europe as you see fit or make it congruous to OTL as much as possible. There are a number of ways Germany could resemble OTLs version from the PoD, and a number of ways it could turn out far different. Balkans are gonna Balkan, so that could always be your powderkeg, even if Bulgaria comes out the dominant Slavic state instead of Serbia. So that choice is also yours stemming from major changes in the 1830s. Or you can go vastly different and have the "second coming" of Skanderbeg rise up and unravel the Ottomans from an Albanian focal point. It's up to you. (Muhammad Ali was Albanian after all. I've found that an interesting story to explore).

From my interest in the region it's the effects the resources have surrounding the Rhine and AL. Let's say Germany had Luxemburg from 1871 to the time the Great War broke out, they'd be moderately more industrialized with a massive flex of iron. Now say Germany had the iron regions in Longwy Briey as well, same thing but now France just lost their trove of iron and as a result would be less prepared for a Great War.

I bring this up because if the Netherlands had all that Belgian coal and iron, possibly even the luxembourgish deposits, they'll have a stronger economy by the time the Great War breaks out. Definitely a much stronger navy and a much better chance at securing their overseas possessions if they get involved in global warfare.

Having written all this, I'm wondering if you, OP, have any specific questions, considering the opening post is rather vague.
 
At the time the Assassination of Franz Ferdinand was not necessary as a casus belli for WW1.

An attempted assassination would arguably have been more than enough in the circumstances.

I don't think that failed attempt would had begun the war. FF personally wanted keep A-H out of war and probably he would manage to speak leadership not go after Serbia.

But war could had been avoided even yet after the assassination. Too many things just went horribly wrong during July Crisis.
 
Well, as for me, it's pretty hard to predict something. And honestly, I have no idea whether it would have been possible to avoid the death of FF, but I think that WWI would surely happen sooner or later. There were enough events, which could be the reason. It's all matter of time, I think. I may be wrong, but this is my opinion on that. To be honest, I think the info I know on WW1 is not enough to make predictions. Some time ago, I even wrote a paper about it, but I at first, I read argumentative essay examples on World War 1 I found on this resource https://studydriver.com/world-war-1-essay/ because I faced writing difficulties. I also want to buy one book, which has many facts about all the events before, during, and after WW1, and I hope it will help me improve my knowledge on that topic.
 
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What about the Second Balkan War? In OTL Austria supported Bulgaria, while Russia backed Romania and Serbia.
Germany and Italy backed Romania as well. The Italians flat out told FJ they wouldn't back him. Germany had a defensive alliance with Romania as well as Austria.

Italy derived its power from playing the two blocs off against each other. Any war was likely to weaken her tremendously.

During the July Crisis, the Italians were clear that they wouldn't support the war. They only offered neutrality if Austria made concessions.

Its amazing the Germans didn't insist on the Austrians reaching agreement with Italy before sending the note.
 
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