AHC/WI Reversed Cold War: Democratic Russia, Totalitarian America

Most likely Scenario


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The main point of divergence being no 1917 October revolution, how can we have Russia become a stable democracy and the United States into a totalitarian dictatorship? What economic system are the two governments going to run with? After what do the next 70 years look like up to 1991?
 
Russia was in complete chaos even before the October Revolution - the only reason Kerensky's government lasted as long as it did was because they enlisted the aid of the Bolsheviks to defeat a coup attempt over the summer. It's not turning into a nice, electoral democracy in any conceivable scenario.
 
During the summer of 1917, if the Bolsheviks were to try and overthrow the republican government who then ally with reactionaries like Kornilov to stay in power, you could end up with a reactionary vs republican civil war. In that scenario if the republicans win and have some very good leadership during the post civil war years, they could make it past 1945 intact and as a Democratic Socialist state , but it is a long shot.
 
The main point of divergence being no 1917 October revolution, how can we have Russia become a stable democracy and the United States into a totalitarian dictatorship? What economic system are the two governments going to run with? After what do the next 70 years look like up to 1991?
Frankly, I would say October revolution is too late. Kerensky would get removed by either the left or rigt, neither of which had much intention to tolerate the other's existence, and would quite likely spirall into civil war, which would likely result in either a much weakened Russia, a dictatorship, or both.

A much better POD might be a more permanent sucess of the 1905 revolution. A much reduced powers of the tsar, perhaps acompanied by Nicholas abdicating to his son (to be under regency) or his more liberal brother. Acompanied by further democratic reforms, while using the continued existece of the tsardom to appease the conservatives, plus implementing the agricultural reforms of Stolypin and continuing the process of industrialization (despite what many still like to claim, Russia was already in the process of industrialization under the Tsar, which makes sense as there would otherwise not be workers needed for the communists to take power), you might get a reasonably democratic Russia, though probably still rather authoritarien in some aspects (the minorities for example). Also, better performance in WW1.

As for tottalitarien America, I am much less ersed in that area. Perhaps lack of reforms after the economical crush leads to a Communist revolution?
 
Would it help in Lenin dies before October?

During the summer of 1917, if the Bolsheviks were to try and overthrow the republican government who then ally with reactionaries like Kornilov to stay in power, you could end up with a reactionary vs republican civil war. In that scenario if the republicans win and have some very good leadership during the post civil war years, they could make it past 1945 intact and as a Democratic Socialist state , but it is a long shot.
Could you rephrase that because I think you might've contradicted yourself,
 
Were there any republicans in the White Army or was it nothing but wannabe Francos?


Know how you would get there?
Communism (or some other leftist ideology) springs up in the Rust belt after bad conditions during and after WWI. This influences the rest of the country and after the Depression a leftist candidate wins the Presidency on a ticket of worker's rights and fixing the depression, soft-couping himself into being more powerful then he should.

The Whites win the Civil war (more foreign aid? Less successful Bolsheviks?) and Kolchak is either the inspiration for the new leader or is the leader himself, and instead of being just another blank-face Fascist tinpot he allows some freedoms, forming a sort of heavily nationalist democracy.
 
Would it help in Lenin dies before October?


Could you rephrase that because I think you might've contradicted yourself,
What I mean is basically switching the Kornilov affair and October revolution. The Bolsheviks try to overthrow the republic first but fail and are subsequently purged out of being an effective group. When the relationship between the republicans and reactionaries inevitability collapses and a civil war breaks out, the republicans win.
 
The POD will probably butterfly away WW2 and with it the setting for the Cold War.
It will also probably not lead to a bipolar world but a multipolar one.
 
The POD will probably butterfly away WW2 and with it the setting for the Cold War.
It will also probably not lead to a bipolar world but a multipolar one.
I still think that an unstable France, a starving Germany, a glory-seeking Italy, and an expansionist Japan would be prime points for conflict. But do you have any details in mind on what this multipolar world would look like?
 
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I still think that an unstable France, a starving Germany, a glory-seeking Italy, and an expansionist Japan would be prime points for conflict. But do you have any details in mind on what this multipolar world would look like?
Without the soviet revolution the radicalisation of politics that followed WW1 would not take place. There would be no attempted communist revolutions through Europe, nor the right wing reactions they provoked and that lead later to several forms of authoritarian governments.
Europe in the 1920s could very well look like a proto version of the over optimistic "end of history" 1990s mood.
Then you need a path to turn the USA communist, which requires social convulsions of a level that would degrade the USA massively economically, With an early POD, the Great Depression may be replaced by a large crisis caused by the forced collectivisation of the U.S. Economy, leaving the world economy open for other actors. We may see a very different economic evolution in Europe and without US interference and competition we may actually see some South American economies prosper.
much the same happens with a fascist or religiously controlled USA, the U.S. Economy shrinks and the global Shark Tank becomes a more level playing field.
So you'd get a number of well balanced major economies, Britain, Germany, France, Russia, Brazil, Argentina competing with the downgraded USA, having mostly democratic governments, and containing Imperial Japan, who would in this world be about as isolated as North Korea is in ours.
The Soviet Revolution was the great moment of ideological change in the the early XX century. Remove it, and the whole world changes. You have just avoided "the age of extremes"
The economic dominance of the USA is the main factor driving global politics in the XX century. Degrade the U.S. Economy (that is intrinsically linked with the U.S. Political system) and you've changed world history massively.
 
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Would Authoritarian Socialist (Communism not truely existing this tl) revolutions in France and Germany be possible since the red scare has likely been avoided? That could lead to war. Also how exactly would you contain Japan since it's suicidal militarism made them believe that war with both China and the US was a good idea?
 
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