Would it be possible for the Cold War disputes in Europe to result in a sort of division in which Germany (probably united under a single administration ITTL) joins a formal geopolitical alliance with the Soviet Union and her allies while Poland becomes an ally of NATO and the west, in a sort of repeat of the run-up to WW2? Basically, awkwardly redrawing the Iron Curtain, or even forfeiting it altogether.
Secondly, would it be feasible for this state of affairs to last long enough without a large-scale crisis or war?
 
It doesn't make geographic sense. To have a united, Soviet-allied Germany means Soviet armies need to occupy all of Germany. To do that, Soviets need to have Poland occupied. With those facts on the ground, I don't see any way that the Allies can get the Soviets to withdraw from Poland, short of immediately launching Operation Unthinkable after the conclusion of WW2. However, if it were successful enough to get a NATO Poland, then it would almost certainly get a NATO Germany, too.
 
Maybe, if Germany gets reunified and neutralized, the Soviet Union withdraws from Poland, and then you get an isolated Germany seeking a Soviet alliance and a fearful Poland moving towards NATO?
 

Khanzeer

Banned
Leftist politicians dominate germany till 60s , they demand US withdrawal from german territory in late 60s under guise of " disarmament "
Even then poland stays firmly leftist , once red army occupied warsaw it would not leave without a fight
 
There would be no “Warsaw Pact” if Poland is not a part of it.

Nonsense, we have many fine convention centers here in bombed out Warsaw! Perfect for renting for a weekend for holding a geopolitical conference between you and your puppet states!
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
It doesn't make geographic sense. To have a united, Soviet-allied Germany means Soviet armies need to occupy all of Germany. To do that, Soviets need to have Poland occupied. With those facts on the ground, I don't see any way that the Allies can get the Soviets to withdraw from Poland, short of immediately launching Operation Unthinkable after the conclusion of WW2. However, if it were successful enough to get a NATO Poland, then it would almost certainly get a NATO Germany, too.
It's pretty unlikely but there are two plausible scenarios in which I can see it happening.

The first one is simple enough. War breaks out over the Sudetenland. Germany is thrashed and a military coup ousts Hitler makes a conditional peace. France and Poland take a pound of flesh. Later on Germany aligns itself with the Soviet Union. France, Britain, the Low Countries, Czechoslovakia, and Poland enter a formal alliance to contain Germany.

The second one is that Stalin dies some time during WWII and is succeeded by Beria. Beria withdraws from Poland and East Germany in exchange for forgiveness of all Lend-Lease debt, a massive infusion of Marshall plan aid, massive reparations to be paid to the USSR by a united Germany, and a reciprocal Western Allied withdrawal from West Germany. Without the scary Soviet boogeyman the Western Allies decide to punish Germany more harshly, especially because they fear ending the occupation so soon could lead to Germany rising again. The Netherlands gets the Bakker-Schut Plan and the Rhineland and Ruhr are separated from Germany. The abruptly aborted occupation means that de-Nazification and reconstruction were never finished and Germany slides back into dictatorship. For the next few decades Germany is an impoverished, economically and diplomatically isolated pariah state stripped of its most prosperous regions and forced to pay reparations for over a century. The Soviet Union slides back into "Socialism in One Country". There is no Cold War and the United States slides back into near-isolationism after it leaves Japan. By the 1980s the Soviet Union's economy is in a much better state than it was OTL at that time due to Marshall Plan money and massive reparations, Beria's economic reforms, and not having to support a bloated military, fuel proxy wars around the world, and maintain its Eastern European empire. Germany's old guard regime has been swept away and Germany is now led by those too young to remember the Second World War, but is still an impoverished pariah state. At this point the USSR decides to flex its muscles, it quickly reaches out to Germany, making a big gesture of waiving its rights to continued reparations. That doesn't come for free though, and the Soviets get to establish a naval base in Hamburg. The rest of Europe rapidly forms its own alliance to contain the emerging German-Soviet alliance, and across the sea the eagle seems to be ending its isolationism....
 
It's pretty unlikely but there are two plausible scenarios in which I can see it happening.

The first one is simple enough. War breaks out over the Sudetenland. Germany is thrashed and a military coup ousts Hitler makes a conditional peace. France and Poland take a pound of flesh. Later on Germany aligns itself with the Soviet Union. France, Britain, the Low Countries, Czechoslovakia, and Poland enter a formal alliance to contain Germany.

The second one is that Stalin dies some time during WWII and is succeeded by Beria. Beria withdraws from Poland and East Germany in exchange for forgiveness of all Lend-Lease debt, a massive infusion of Marshall plan aid, massive reparations to be paid to the USSR by a united Germany, and a reciprocal Western Allied withdrawal from West Germany. Without the scary Soviet boogeyman the Western Allies decide to punish Germany more harshly, especially because they fear ending the occupation so soon could lead to Germany rising again. The Netherlands gets the Bakker-Schut Plan and the Rhineland and Ruhr are separated from Germany. The abruptly aborted occupation means that de-Nazification and reconstruction were never finished and Germany slides back into dictatorship. For the next few decades Germany is an impoverished, economically and diplomatically isolated pariah state stripped of its most prosperous regions and forced to pay reparations for over a century. The Soviet Union slides back into "Socialism in One Country". There is no Cold War and the United States slides back into near-isolationism after it leaves Japan. By the 1980s the Soviet Union's economy is in a much better state than it was OTL at that time due to Marshall Plan money and massive reparations, Beria's economic reforms, and not having to support a bloated military, fuel proxy wars around the world, and maintain its Eastern European empire. Germany's old guard regime has been swept away and Germany is now led by those too young to remember the Second World War, but is still an impoverished pariah state. At this point the USSR decides to flex its muscles, it quickly reaches out to Germany, making a big gesture of waiving its rights to continued reparations. That doesn't come for free though, and the Soviets get to establish a naval base in Hamburg. The rest of Europe rapidly forms its own alliance to contain the emerging German-Soviet alliance, and across the sea the eagle seems to be ending its isolationism....
Right, i could see the Allies being frightened at the prospect of an united Germany just after defeating her in two large-scale wars. Indeed, western leadership did express concern over Germany's reunification around 1990, even if the populace had other things to say.
 
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