AHC/WI: Non-Communist Central Europe during the Cold War

How do you think countries like Hungary, Czechoslovakia, and Poland would have turned out like if the Soviet Union never expanded its rule to their territories, creating Communist People's Republics after WW2?

Would they have been similar to various South American countries, being ruled over by military Juntas, and a large degree of separation of standard of living between the poor and the rich, or would they have been better off than in OTL?

Say in a TL like this, would 2020 Budapest resemble Rio de Janeiro or Vienna more and why?
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I don't see why they would be allowed to do this. Hungary helped the Nazis against the Soviets as did many other Balkan countries, Poland and the Soviets had gone to war earlier, and leaving Czechoslovakia leaves an unnecessarily long frontline if the West attacks. Considering more than 20 million Soviets died, I think that security would have to be Stalin's top priority.
The Soviets somehow lost Stalingrad or Moscow is a good POD. After the defeat, the Soviet Army would be totally exhausted, leaving space for the WAllies to liberate Europe.
In OTL borders?

Let's begin with united Germany as a neutral state in 1952 after Stalin's note. In OTL borders, of course.

After Stalin's death, Beria manage to outmaneuver his way to power. After series of secret negotiations with the West, Beria agrees to Soviet withdraw from Eastern Europe in return for major financial assistance, security treaties, and dissoultion of NATO in continental Europe. NATO is only USA, UK, Canada and Iceland. So, in mid 50's whole of Europe is neutral zone, and basically third pole of Cold war.

Instead of original European economic union, now we have EFTA, and early development of independent European armed forces.

Instead of two-way Cold war, we have now three-way cold between Soviet bloc, early EEU, and Anglo-American bloc.

But, this would create tons of butterflies...


I can see where Germans are luckier and drive deeper into soviet union early on but like everything they are ultimately defeated and pushed back. The western allies land iotl and push East into Germany and over run all of Germany and Czech part.
Soviets arrive at Oder river chasing German East army which runs right into west allies and surrenders to them instead of Soviets.
Mistrust and anger linger and all of Germany plus Czech along with Austria stay under western allies occupation where as Soviets occupy Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria.