AHC/WI: (False) Dimitry Successfully Keep The Throne

[Tosa Inu]

Let's say that when the man who claimed to be Tsarevich Dimitry, son of Ivan, after being successfully put on Russian Throne by the Polish-Lithuanian Soldiers, his Catholic wife ended up converting to Orthodox Christianity, and thus removed the chief source of unrest against his reign.

Whatever happened ITTL may vary, but the end result is that the "Rurik" dynasty have few more Tsars after the (only rumored to be false) Dimitry died peacefully in a rather old age of 60-80s.

With a successful reign of the False Dimitry, what will happen next to the succession?

....

Bonus question, Imagine ITTL Russian Tsars managed to keep the "Rurik" lineage into the ATL 21st Century Present Day, eventually morphing into a Constitutional Monarchy somewhere along the line. As the now 21st century DNA analysis is available, the reigning Russian Tsar decides to let Scientists at ATL University of Moscow to took his DNA sample, and also samples from the known tombs of the past Tsars. It ended up with the Tsar Dimitry I ended up being revealed as definitely not the son of Ivan the Terrible. what happens next?

 

[PolishMagnet]

I don't think it guarantees a transition to a constitutional monarchy, but it would mean Dmitry is indebted to Poland.

 

[Tosa Inu]

I don't think it guarantees a transition to a constitutional monarchy, but it would mean Dmitry is indebted to Poland.

It's more of a bonsus question mind you the constitutional Monarchy of 21st century, a large Monarchy turned out ro have 400 years of secretly false Pretender taken as true.


And yes, this Dimitry would be definitely indebted to Poland, Which will change the Russian attitude toward Poland maybe?

 

[twovultures]

Bonus question, Imagine ITTL Russian Tsars managed to keep the "Rurik" lineage into the ATL 21st Century Present Day, eventually morphing into a Constitutional Monarchy somewhere along the line. As the now 21st century DNA analysis is available, the reigning Russian Tsar decides to let Scientists at ATL University of Moscow to took his DNA sample, and also samples from the known tombs of the past Tsars. It ended up with the Tsar Dimitry I ended up being revealed as definitely not the son of Ivan the Terrible. what happens next?

IMO this sort of scenario is why the British Crown refused to allow DNA testing of the remains of the Princes in the Tower-too much possibility of a 'paternal discontinuity' being revealed.

Assuming that in this scenario Russia is a typical European constitutional monarchy, the results are probably ignored by most of the populace, but various fringe weirdos start popping up claiming (maybe correctly!) to be closer heirs to the throne and become leaders of fringe political movements aimed at overthrowing the existing monarchy and reshaping the country.

Assuming a more conservative Russia, more akin to something like Thailand or a Gulf monarchy, this could precipitate a real crisis if the Orthodox church declares the current Tsar invalid as a result of the DNA test (though I can't imagine that the Church would be very independent from the Crown in this kind of scenario).

 

[30PrincesAndAKing]

IMO this sort of scenario is why the British Crown refused to allow DNA testing of the remains of the Princes in the Tower-too much possibility of a 'paternal discontinuity' being revealed.

To be fair, the 'identification' of those remains is already pretty shaky, so I can understand why the BRF would refuse testing (given how the British media would inevitably spin something as innocuous as misidentified remains). But the nature of DNA testing would preclude the possibility of revealing a 'paternal discontinuity' within the present BRF, since the post 1485 succession goes through several female linkages, who (being women) would not have passed Y-DNA to their descendants, thus leaving no paternal Y-DNA to compare to the Medieval remains.

what happens next?

I don't think proving Dmitry was false would have much impact on his descendants in a 21st century constitutional monarchy, since by necessity said constitution would already postdate the falseness of Dmitry and neglect to mention his legitimacy as a prerequisite for its validity. There would be no constitutional crisis, in all likelihood, unless there were already an anti-monarchist movement that latches on to the information for political reasons. Of course, given the POD, it's unlikely constitutional monarchy will develop as we know it.

 

[Arkenfolm]

It's more of a bonsus question mind you the constitutional Monarchy of 21st century, a large Monarchy turned out ro have 400 years of secretly false Pretender taken as true.

It's happened before. Medieval Norwegian king Sverre Sigurdsson, one of the most successful Norwegian kings of his era, claimed to be an illegitimate son of previous king Sigurd Munn (which was common in his day). Before entering Norwegian politics, he was a Faroese priest and may have been too young to plausibly have had Sigurd Munn as his father. He also refused to ever undergo a trial to prove his claim. However, his descendents still ruled Norway until 1319.

And yes, this Dimitry would be definitely indebted to Poland, Which will change the Russian attitude toward Poland maybe?

For some decades, but eventually political concerns will resume, Russia will stabilise, and Poland may once again become a target and rival.

 

[Tosa Inu]

For some decades, but eventually political concerns will resume, Russia will stabilise, and Poland may once again become a target and rival.

Hmmm... What is the likely long-term territorial concessions from Russia to the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth then? The ones that might stick for +/- 200 years instead of neing immediately reconqued by the next tsar or the tsar afterwards

 

[kholieken]

Hmmm... What is the likely long-term territorial concessions from Russia to the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth then? The ones that might stick for +/- 200 years instead of neing immediately reconqued by the next tsar or the tsar afterwards

Smolensk ? Kiev ? Russia and Poland had no good border so anything given/captured could always be reconquered.

 

[Fabius Maximus]

Bonus question, Imagine ITTL Russian Tsars managed to keep the "Rurik" lineage into the ATL 21st Century Present Day, eventually morphing into a Constitutional Monarchy somewhere along the line. As the now 21st century DNA analysis is available, the reigning Russian Tsar decides to let Scientists at ATL University of Moscow to took his DNA sample, and also samples from the known tombs of the past Tsars. It ended up with the Tsar Dimitry I ended up being revealed as definitely not the son of Ivan the Terrible. what happens next?

Very unlikely to have an impact. Every country has had monarchs of questionable legal title in the past, albeit usually in the form of usurpers rather than impostors. After a family has been recognised as the rightful royal family for centuries, people don't generally worry about whether one of their ancestors four hundred years ago really had a legitimate claim to the throne. Duration conveys a legitimacy all of its own.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

back to the question of getting Dmitri's ass on the throne to start with:

OTL he only got onto the throne because Boris dropped dead. Dmitri's soldiers were already deserting in droves due to pay being in arrears and the like. Boris dying was the "magic moment". If Boris doesn't come down with whatever killed him (ICR if it was cancer or something decidedly unnatural), Dmitri is screwed.

OTOH, given the speed with which Dmitri wore out his welcome with the Muscovites OTL (he mostly pissed them off with his religious agnosticism, Polonophilia and other behaviours), I'm not entirely sold on that he could stay on the throne without a problem.

@Valena @Lalli @alexmilman

 

[Lalli]

back to the question of getting Dmitri's ass on the throne to start with:

OTL he only got onto the throne because Boris dropped dead. Dmitri's soldiers were already deserting in droves due to pay being in arrears and the like. Boris dying was the "magic moment". If Boris doesn't come down with whatever killed him (ICR if it was cancer or something decidedly unnatural), Dmitri is screwed.

OTOH, given the speed with which Dmitri wore out his welcome with the Muscovites OTL (he mostly pissed them off with his religious agnosticism, Polonophilia and other behaviours), I'm not entirely sold on that he could stay on the throne without a problem.

@Valena @Lalli @alexmilman

Agree. False Dmitri was doomed to fail. Others had even worse chances. It just hasn't usually worked very well that you claim being someone long time ago dead guy. It was pretty easy to prove being lie even without DNA test.

 

[Tosa Inu]

Agree. False Dmitri was doomed to fail. Others had even worse chances. It just hasn't usually worked very well that you claim being someone long time ago dead guy. It was pretty easy to prove being lie even without DNA test.

What if due to more intelligent choices made by both False Dimitry and Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, the Tsar "Dimitry Rurikovich" actually stays?

Could we see a Catholic Russia, or perhaps with enough time, we could see Russia ended up cojoined into Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth forming Polish-Lithuanian-Russian Commonwealth? Or the Slavic Empire?

The Boyars might actually liké the Golden Liberty and Aristocratic Democracy after all.

 

[Lalli]

What if due to more intelligent choices made by both False Dimitry and Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, the Tsar "Dimitry Rurikovich" actually stays?

Him and his supporters should act very differently. Then they could succeed.

Could we see a Catholic Russia, or perhaps with enough time, we could see Russia ended up cojoined into Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth forming Polish-Lithuanian-Russian Commonwealth? Or the Slavic Empire?

Not way that Russians are going to convert to Catholism. If Poles even try that Russians are going to revolt immediately. And I can't see P-L-R Commonwealth there. I am not sure if even Poles want that.

The Boyars might actually liké the Golden Liberty and Aristocratic Democracy after all.

Boyars without any doubt would want as much power as possible. But on long term it is not going to work very well.

 

[Arkenfolm]

What if due to more intelligent choices made by both False Dimitry and Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, the Tsar "Dimitry Rurikovich" actually stays?

Could we see a Catholic Russia, or perhaps with enough time, we could see Russia ended up cojoined into Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth forming Polish-Lithuanian-Russian Commonwealth? Or the Slavic Empire?

The Boyars might actually liké the Golden Liberty and Aristocratic Democracy after all.

Most Russians would always be at the very least skeptical of a Catholic ruling them, it's the same reason PLC had so many problems holding onto what is now Ukraine. Makes me wonder if we could see Russia split off in a royal election--one converts to Orthodoxy, the other stays Catholic.

 

[Tosa Inu]

Most Russians would always be at the very least skeptical of a Catholic ruling them,

What of this Pseudo-Dimitry managed to keep himself Orthodox and have his wife convert to Russian Orthodoxy?

Or what if this Dimitry actually has more trophies under his belt, like leading from the front as a Commander in the Polish fights against Sweden/Ottoman incursions several times? A False Dimitry that was a decorated Officer might've been more respected by Russians yes?

Spoiler: Kind of Plot Point in a TL

I actually planned for this "False" Dimitry to, instead of OTL direct Polish backing, actually bumping into and tagged along a Certain Ottoman Prince during an ATL Ottoman Civil War, basically working his.ass off as a Mercenary Commander first before receiving his promised rewards of money and soldiers to take over Russia in the future.