AHC/WI England and Germany swapped groups at the 2002 FIFA World Cup

QTXAdsy

QTXAdsy

Well then, been thinking about this for a wee while regarding the 2002 World Cup. It involves the seeding of the seeding of two teams being England and Germany who were ranked 12th and 11th in the rankings at the time however for those who remember how both teams were going into this tournament, England were actually considered a better team than Germany at the time though as we all know Germany actually made it all the way the final while England fell at the Quarter-finals though it must be said that both just so happened to have to be placed in groups that pretty much set them up going forward.

England were placed in the group of death featuring Argentina, Sweden and Nigeria while Germany happened to luck it out with a soft group with Ireland, Cameroon and Saudi Arabia and with that a soft route to get to the final. As some of us will know, 2000 to 2004 is pretty dark time for the German national team with 2002 being a major exception to this and it all happens that Germany and England were just separated by just one place on the ranking.

So the question is what if Germany and England just so happened to have their rankings swapped and with it, have them placed in different groups. How different would both team's fates would be at the World Cup? I could see England doing well in Germany's OTL group and, if we still get that soft route to the final, it is possible that England team might have made it to the final though how would that ropey Germany team do in that group stage with Argentina, Sweden and Nigeria? Would be interesting to think if anyone has any ideas; might do a small TL if anyone's interested for this.
 

NTF aka Seb

Just like Germany, I think England would've topped the group and sneaked to the final, where they would've almost certainly lost against Brazil.

If (big if) Germany won their new group and assuming Oliver Kahn also had the tournament of his life ITTL, I think they would've reached the semi-finals, where they would've almost certainly lost against Brazil. Then I think Die Mannschaft would've defeated South Korea in the bronze match.

If Germany advanced as the runner-up of their new group, I think they would've scraped past Denmark in the round of 16, only to lose to Brazil in the quarter-finals.

Now, for my actual prediction. I think Sweden would've topped the group as IOTL, but with Argentina as the runner-up. In the last 16, Sweden would lose against Senegal as IOTL. Argentina would play against a solid Danish side. Honestly, either could win. But it's not like it matters since the winner would lose against Brazil in the quarter-finals regardless.

It always goes back to Brazil.
 
QTXAdsy

QTXAdsy

NTF aka Seb said:
Just like Germany, I think England would've topped the group and sneaked to the final, where they would've almost certainly lost against Brazil.

If (big if) Germany won their new group and assuming Oliver Kahn also had the tournament of his life ITTL, I think they would've reached the semi-finals, where they would've almost certainly lost against Brazil. Then I think Die Mannschaft would've defeated South Korea in the bronze match.

If Germany advanced as the runner-up of their new group, I think they would've scraped past Denmark in the round of 16, only to lose to Brazil in the quarter-finals.

Now, for my actual prediction. I think Sweden would've topped the group as IOTL, but with Argentina as the runner-up. In the last 16, Sweden would lose against Senegal as IOTL. Argentina would play against a solid Danish side. Honestly, either could win. But it's not like it matters since the winner would lose against Brazil in the quarter-finals regardless.

It always goes back to Brazil.
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IIRC, Argentina were one of the favourites to win the WC that year and their early exit was a shock. A game between the Argentina and Germany teams of that World Cup could end either way though I suspect Argentina might nick it.

Providing they end up as runners up and face Brazil in the Quarter-finals then that is a game that could go either way which might even go all the way to penalties so I'm not so sure if Brazil would win that as such.

Either way, England would be in a far better place here for getting to a final even if they lose it as they would have done far better than any England team prior. Wonder how this would affect them in Euro 2004 if they could do better then?
 
durante

durante

Wellllll the biggest what if of that world cup is Roy Keane, isnt it? Does a guaranteed group match against England mean a more focused training session, keeping Keano happy and on the squad?
 
QTXAdsy

QTXAdsy

durante said:
Wellllll the biggest what if of that world cup is Roy Keane, isnt it? Does a guaranteed group match against England mean a more focused training session, keeping Keano happy and on the squad?
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Maybe, but then again considering his reaction to the training facilities that Ireland had, I'm not sure much change there though I can definitely see that being a 1-1 draw like with OTL with Ireland going through as runners-up as with OTL.
 

NTF aka Seb

QTXAdsy said:
IIRC, Argentina were one of the favourites to win the WC that year and their early exit was a shock. A game between the Argentina and Germany teams of that World Cup could end either way though I suspect Argentina might nick it.

Providing they end up as runners up and face Brazil in the Quarter-finals then that is a game that could go either way which might even go all the way to penalties so I'm not so sure if Brazil would win that as such.

Either way, England would be in a far better place here for getting to a final even if they lose it as they would have done far better than any England team prior. Wonder how this would affect them in Euro 2004 if they could do better then?
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Yeah, it was. Argentina are always favorites to some extent, but they fell victim to a David Beckham penalty and insane Anders Svensson free-kick.
In my prediction, I don't even have an Argentine win against Germany, but a draw. I would consider Argentina favorites over them, though.

An Argentine win is within the realm of possibility, but given how they performed IOTL, a Brazilian win is definitely more probable.

I wouldn't put too much weight on how a team reaching a World Cup final would affect their performance at the next major tournament, given historical examples. France going out in the last 16 of Euro 2020 after winning in 2018, the Netherlands crashing out of the group stage in 2012 after finishing second in 2010, etc.

You could argue it would've given England the needed confidence to beat Portugal on penalties at Euro 2004, but it's just speculation. I don't think England would've won the title.
 
durante

durante

World got robbed of an Italy-Brasil match up in 2002.

I also liked Turkey's odds in this one. Rivaldo got away with one in the group stages
 
PakistaniGuyUK

PakistaniGuyUK

Banned
OP it would've helped if you'd have included the OTL paths in ur OP so we knew what you were on about. But here goes:

Group E
1. England
2. Republic of Ireland
3. Cameroon
4. Saudi Arabia

Republic of Ireland 1 Cameroon 1
England 5 Saudi Arabia 0

England 1 Republic of Ireland 0
Cameroon 1 Saudi Arabia 0

England 2 Cameroon 0
Republic of Ireland 3 Saudi Arabia 0

Group F
1. Sweden
2. Argentina
3. Germany
4. Nigeria

Argentina 1 Nigeria 0
Germany 1 Sweden 1

Sweden 2 Nigeria 1
Germany 1 Argentina 1

Sweden 1 Argentina 1
Germany 1 Nigeria 0

CONCLUSION:
Can England still beat Argentina so comprehensively in a knockout game as they did in their OTL group game?
Germany dumped out first round - will they end up even longer in the wilderness or will ATL eventually merge with OTL after a few years?

Edit: oops I just realised Argentina, Germany and Sweden would all be on 5 points. According to whatever coefficients Germany might have still have gone through then. Either way an England victory in a knockout game against any of these 3 will not be a given.
 
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Ruperto Pesto

Argentina and Germany played a friendly in april 2002, in Germany...Argentina won 1-0 with a header by Juan Pablo Sorin....of course it was a friendly but the thing was that, except for England during 1st half, no rival was superior to Argentina...and Argentina played with an extremely desperation, and missed several chances against Sweden...which if Argentina would have a draw, ( or even better, a victory) against Germany...the way Argentina would play against Sweden, would have been a very far relaxed one.

Against Brazil...well, Argentina vs Brazil is two cents apart...in this ATL i would dare to say that they might ended on penalties...and Brazil winning by that way...
 
durante

durante

I like to throw spanners in the works. This is my theory:

Ireland phoned in the 2002 World Cup (or rather, Mick McCarthy did). They only got through because they were in the group of life - Saudi Arabia were considered a decent squad before 2002. This is the world cup where they became a laughingstock.

So...it is my theory that Ireland looked at the pools, and figured "we made it, that's good enough" and went ahead and booked their tropical destination of Saipan for training.

When they arrived, Keane took one look around and lost his mind.

I'm suggesting with absolutely no supporting evidence, that having England in their pool IS the World Cup for Ireland.

They DON'T book Saipan. They play it all for one game and one game only.

Ok now follow me down this rabbit hole.

A Keane-less Ireland lost to Spain on penalties and drew Germany

Spain lost to Korea on penalties who lost to Germany

So England and Germany switch groups...


Means an Ireland v Brasil final
 
QTXAdsy

QTXAdsy

durante said:
I like to throw spanners in the works. This is my theory:

Ireland phoned in the 2002 World Cup (or rather, Mick McCarthy did). They only got through because they were in the group of life - Saudi Arabia were considered a decent squad before 2002. This is the world cup where they became a laughingstock.

So...it is my theory that Ireland looked at the pools, and figured "we made it, that's good enough" and went ahead and booked their tropical destination of Saipan for training.

When they arrived, Keane took one look around and lost his mind.

I'm suggesting with absolutely no supporting evidence, that having England in their pool IS the World Cup for Ireland.

They DON'T book Saipan. They play it all for one game and one game only.

Ok now follow me down this rabbit hole.

A Keane-less Ireland lost to Spain on penalties and drew Germany

Spain lost to Korea on penalties who lost to Germany

So England and Germany switch groups...


Means an Ireland v Brasil final
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That is providing that even if Ireland get past Spain to face South Korea, there is still the glaring issue providing that Ireland don't get screwed over by the match officials which saw the Koreans go through; a game that IMO was far more blatant with bad calls in comparison to the game with Italy and South Korea that everyone brings up.

The thought of the same thing happening to Ireland instead of Spain getting cheated is one that I could see Keane utterly blowing a gasket on the field and the controversy could dwarf that if what happened with France in 2009.

So yeah, providing England did reach the last four to face South Korea and with Irish anger still aimed at the Koreans for what happened, I could see that game being one that the average Irish person saying that it is a game that pity both can't lose with it being England South Korea would face. Interesting butterfly effects all round to say the least.
 
HelloThere

HelloThere

As a German, almost everybody here knows that we got pretty lucky with the draws in the 2002 WC. The German national team was in no position to seriously challenge teams like England, Argentine or Brazil.

An interesting question is what would happen if Germany exits the group stage in 2002. Will Völler get sacked 2 years earlier than OTL? Who could replace him?
 
QTXAdsy

QTXAdsy

HelloThere said:
As a German, almost everybody here knows that we got pretty lucky with the draws in the 2002 WC. The German national team was in no position to seriously challenge teams like England, Argentine or Brazil.

An interesting question is what would happen if Germany exits the group stage in 2002. Will Völler get sacked 2 years earlier than OTL? Who could replace him?
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Question is how does this affect Germany in the 2006 WC? Even though they would be there for being the benefit of acting as hosts, would they do as well ITTL or not?
 
HelloThere

HelloThere

QTXAdsy said:
Question is how does this affect Germany in the 2006 WC? Even though they would be there for being the benefit of acting as hosts, would they do as well ITTL or not?
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I think they could do even better. The shock of 2004 lead to an increase in the attention given to German youth teams. This would happen even earlier ITTL and force the new German coach to rely more on young prospects. Schweinsteiger and Podolski will play much bigger roles in ITTL 2004 Euros.
 
durante

durante

QTXAdsy said:
IIRC, Argentina were one of the favourites to win the WC that year and their early exit was a shock. A game between the Argentina and Germany teams of that World Cup could end either way though I suspect Argentina might nick it.

Providing they end up as runners up and face Brazil in the Quarter-finals then that is a game that could go either way which might even go all the way to penalties so I'm not so sure if Brazil would win that as such.

Either way, England would be in a far better place here for getting to a final even if they lose it as they would have done far better than any England team prior. Wonder how this would affect them in Euro 2004 if they could do better then?
Click to expand...
Francesco Totti was fouled in the penalty area during extra time and was given a second yellow instead of a penalty shot, so I dont know how it gets more blatant then that.

Also 2 goals disallowed by Italy that VAR would've identified as onside
 
HelloThere

HelloThere

durante said:
Francesco Totti was fouled in the penalty area during extra time and was given a second yellow instead of a penalty shot, so I dont know how it gets more blatant then that.

Also 2 goals disallowed by Italy that VAR would've identified as onside
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I don't think 2002 was fixed against Italy, all referees sucked during the World Cup that year. For example the US didn't get a clear penalty when a German defender played a clear handball on the goal line in the game against them. 2002 was just a really low point in the history of referee picks.
 
durante

durante

HelloThere said:
I don't think 2002 was fixed against Italy, all referees sucked during the World Cup that year. For example the US didn't get a clear penalty when a German defender played a clear handball on the goal line in the game against them. 2002 was just a really low point in the history of referee picks.
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Yeah I dont think it was fixed against Italy but rather for Korea
 
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