AHC: Mexico reconquers Texas from the CSA

With a POD(s?) of your choice, create a scenario where the Confederate States of America wins the American Civil War but manages to fuck up so badly that Mexico somehow reconquers Texas.
 
Have the war stay the same but the Confederacy "win" at Gettysburg but the Confederacy has to go back to the South due to losing to many troops. Grant is viewed as butcher wasting troops on relentless attacks in the south. The newspapers in the north focus on the men lost and have Sherman viewed as a barbarian burning and hurting civilians. With that Lincoln loses the election and a treaty is written where the Confederacy is the following states.

Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi.
Texas is taken by Mexico with the Union focused on the Confederacy and the reintegration of the other confederation states. Though under this I see another Mexican-US war where Texas is recovered and more of Mexico taken.(CSA could pick a side)
 

Lusitania

Donor
Have a situation where union capture whole Mississippi River valley including New Orleans but cannot for what ever reason defeat remnants of confederacy.
Have texas declare independence from confederares and gets involved in a border war with Mexico. Mexico defeats Texas and occupies it.
By 1870 an exhausted US and confederate agree to peace treaty with US keeping northern parts of confederacy plus Mississippi valley including New Orleans.
the US is too exhausted having lost over 1 million men to do anything about Mexico occupying Texas which is being filled by Mexicans.
 
The Confederates successfully secede. After a decade or so of mismanaging the country, the Planters get the bright idea of distracting the public with a war of glorious expansion against Mexico. It goes badly and the Mexicans retake Texas.
 
This is an event so unlikely as to be absurd. Mid to late 19th Century Mexico was a near failed state. She had suffered dismemberment in a war with the United States, a French Invasion, and endemic civil wars. She had an anemic economy, illiterate Peon Masses, and a tiny elite concerned only with maintaining it's social privileges. Mexico lacked the social, and political cohesion to have a national vision for internal development, let alone territorial expansion. Mexico couldn't conquer Guatemala, let alone Texas.
 
Benito Juarez agrees to become Maximilian's prime minister (OTL proposal but categorically rejected by Juarez). Mexico avoids getting bogged down in a civil war with a too heavy hand of the French. Mexico and France decide to support the Confederate States in exchange for a readjustment of the Texan border. After the victory of the confederates, the latter fall into the war if they let the Mexican empire absorb more and more Texas.
 
"This is an event so unlikely as to be absurd. Mid to late 19th Century Mexico was a near failed state. She had suffered dismemberment in a war with the United States, a French Invasion, and endemic civil wars. She had an anemic economy, illiterate Peon Masses, and a tiny elite concerned only with maintaining it's social privileges. Mexico lacked the social, and political cohesion to have a national vision for internal development, let alone territorial expansion. Mexico couldn't conquer Guatemala, let alone Texas."

This is alternative history so you change this.

A nineteenth century Mexico that had its act together would have had a big impact on the USA.
 
Benito Juarez agrees to become Maximilian's prime minister (OTL proposal but categorically rejected by Juarez). Mexico avoids getting bogged down in a civil war with a too heavy hand of the French. Mexico and France decide to support the Confederate States in exchange for a readjustment of the Texan border. After the victory of the confederates, the latter fall into the war if they let the Mexican empire absorb more and more Texas.

Yes if only Juarez had betrayed his country, race, class, and the principles of republican government. If only the Mexican People had embraced a foreign imposed monarchy, backed by French bayonets. If that had happened the Mexicans could have had internal peace, future economic development, and efficient government. This new government would have provided universal education, public services, rule of law, effective policing, and ended the systemic corruption at every level of society. They would attract foreign capital that would finance the growth of Mexico into a major industrial power.

The new Mexican superpower places Texas under it's protection. When the rest of the Confederacy falls Texas is left as a Mexican Satellite. The United States is too exhausted from the Civil War to take on the new might of Mexico, and their French Allies, and accepts the Texas Succession. In the following 20 years the United States is unable to match Mexico in the contest for economic influence in Texas, leading to the 1885 Texico Customs Union. Finally on December 29 1895, on the 50th anniversary of Texas joining the United States, Texas rejoins the Federation of Mexico.

Now anything may be possible, but I think it's more likely that the Mexicans will breed Chihuahuas as big as Great Danes then that this scenario would take place.
 
Yes if only Juarez had betrayed his country, race, class, and the principles of republican government. If only the Mexican People had embraced a foreign imposed monarchy, backed by French bayonets. If that had happened the Mexicans could have had internal peace, future economic development, and efficient government. This new government would have provided universal education, public services, rule of law, effective policing, and ended the systemic corruption at every level of society. They would attract foreign capital that would finance the growth of Mexico into a major industrial power.

The new Mexican superpower places Texas under it's protection. When the rest of the Confederacy falls Texas is left as a Mexican Satellite. The United States is too exhausted from the Civil War to take on the new might of Mexico, and their French Allies, and accepts the Texas Succession. In the following 20 years the United States is unable to match Mexico in the contest for economic influence in Texas, leading to the 1885 Texico Customs Union. Finally on December 29 1895, on the 50th anniversary of Texas joining the United States, Texas rejoins the Federation of Mexico.

Now anything may be possible, but I think it's more likely that the Mexicans will breed Chihuahuas as big as Great Danes then that this scenario would take place.
I totally agree with you, it would take many unlikely events for that to happen.
 
Easy enough:

1) Have the French be more welcoming of European immigrants into the country 1864 and onward so it could build up its army. If they use the “free land” advertising trick, it could work.

2) Have the Mexican government be more anti-CSA than what the Southern Victory Series by Harry Turtledove had. You could have a more authoritarian monarchy in the late 1800s and early 1900s that the Mexicans would eventually rebel not unlike OTL Mexican Revolution. The timing would be about the same, 1910s or so.

3) Make Germany propose an alliance with Mexico not unlike OTL and have both follow through with it. With Mexico having a bigger army due to immigration and Germany sending troops to North America, the CSA would be fighting a two-front war and its resources would be exhausted to the point where they either lose or at least have a negotiated peace. This is assuming WW1 happens like our timeline.

4) Have Texas be more welcoming to non-WASP immigration including more Germans and Hispanics who were more anti-slavery than their WASP counterparts. This could neuter slavery in Texas sooner than the rest of the CSA and if enough immigrate then Texas could eventually see itself have more in common with Mexico than the Confederacy. And have Texas be resistant to giving the CSA it’s oil when discovered in 1894.

These would all have to work more or less in sync with each other for it to work. Not perfect, I know, but better than nothing. Unlikely, perhaps. But not implausible and certainly not impossible.
 
Imperial Mexico probably would develop on stable liberal lines, given how Maximilian wasn't a reactionary conservative. Policy-wise he wasn't that different from Juarez, which is sort of ironic.

I could see a situation where Mexico by 1900 sort of has its act together but the CSA is a basket case. The CSA picks a war with Mexico and proceeds to lose badly.
 
A possible POD that isn't that much of a Mexico wank is that when the CSA is formed, the USA administration evacuates Fts. Sumpter and Pickens and negotiates. Maybe this is done by Buchanan and Lincoln gets a fait accompli, or Lincoln himself decides differently, or we have some other alt Lincoln administration. Or the Davis administration or some alternative like a Toombs administration keeps the hotheads under control and doesn't try to provoke a fight to get the Upper South into the Confederacy and keep the Lower South from getting cold feet.

For whatever reason, the six states that seceded in 1860 do so peacefully. The other slave states remain in the Union, which holds together and may compensate by expansion elsewhere (more than the IOTL purchase of Alaska). Americans eventually view Dixe as a foreign, backwards country especially after the Upper South decides compensated emancipation won't be so bad. This is really the easiest way to get a CSA past 1865 anyway.

Mexico continues IOTL, though the 1860s civil war/ war against France is affected both by not having a USA that is still powerful and and peace, then no Union army appearing on the border. But not enough changes to prevent either Porforismo or the Mexican revolution. CSA, which is something of a basket case, tries to intervene in the Mexican Revoluton and gets a really strong blowback.
 
I totally agree with you, it would take many unlikely events for that to happen.

Ok, so let's tweak your scenario a little bit. Say that France performs better in the beginning of the invasion (winning at Puebla or something like that) and because of their initial success decides to support the CSA believing that that would enhance the security of the new Empire. After the successful revolt of the Confederates, Juarez becomes convinced that accepting Maximilian's offer would be better for the stability of Mexico than leading a rebellion that likely has little chance of succeeding now. Fast forward about 30 years. Nap III's successor no longer supports the CSA, which is now basically an international pariah being the only nation left in the western world with legalized slavery, and is a basket case because of complete mismanagement by the planters. Meanwhile, Mexico has developed at least beyond the level of the CSA (as @Jackson Lennock points out, Max wasn't a reactionary conservative, so it's not like Mexico is going to be some sort of dystopian hellscape under his leadership). A massive slave revolt breaks out in Texas, and Max or his successor decides that retaking Texas would make for a nice little national unity project. Mexican soldiers are viewed by the revolting slaves as liberators, seeing as how Mexico doesn't have slavery, and they help with the reconquest.
 
With a POD(s?) of your choice, create a scenario where the Confederate States of America wins the American Civil War but manages to fuck up so badly that Mexico somehow reconquers Texas.

Virtually impossible without PoDs extending back a century, at which point anything resembling OTL's Civil War is not going to happen.
 
The better way to do it would be a competence Mexico is run by a competent government at the time of Fort Sumter. They sit on the sidelines until the shooting starts... I would say by year 2, they launch their attack on Texas. Now the Confederacy has to fight a war on two fronts!
 
Ok, so let's tweak your scenario a little bit. Say that France performs better in the beginning of the invasion (winning at Puebla or something like that) and because of their initial success decides to support the CSA believing that that would enhance the security of the new Empire. After the successful revolt of the Confederates, Juarez becomes convinced that accepting Maximilian's offer would be better for the stability of Mexico than leading a rebellion that likely has little chance of succeeding now. Fast forward about 30 years. Nap III's successor no longer supports the CSA, which is now basically an international pariah being the only nation left in the western world with legalized slavery, and is a basket case because of complete mismanagement by the planters. Meanwhile, Mexico has developed at least beyond the level of the CSA (as @Jackson Lennock points out, Max wasn't a reactionary conservative, so it's not like Mexico is going to be some sort of dystopian hellscape under his leadership). A massive slave revolt breaks out in Texas, and Max or his successor decides that retaking Texas would make for a nice little national unity project. Mexican soldiers are viewed by the revolting slaves as liberators, seeing as how Mexico doesn't have slavery, and they help with the reconquest.

The Maximilian Regime had very little popular support, the moment the French have to leave it would collapse. The Americans made them leave in the OTL, and in a CSA Victory TL they have to leave by 1870, when the 2nd Empire falls. Even in a CSA Victory TL the United States would still work to force the French out, while the CSA would support the French, and their puppet Regime. After the fall of Maximilian Mexico would probable fall into the same kind of civil wars they did in the OTL. Mexico isn't conquering anyone, it was near failed state, with little internal strength, and a weak military.
 
Actually, I've been trying to do this in vanilla Victoria 2, however the C.S. always refuses to honor my takeover, even when the rest of the country is occupied by the Union. It's very frustrating.
 
The Maximilian Regime had very little popular support, the moment the French have to leave it would collapse. The Americans made them leave in the OTL, and in a CSA Victory TL they have to leave by 1870, when the 2nd Empire falls. Even in a CSA Victory TL the United States would still work to force the French out, while the CSA would support the French, and their puppet Regime. After the fall of Maximilian Mexico would probable fall into the same kind of civil wars they did in the OTL. Mexico isn't conquering anyone, it was near failed state, with little internal strength, and a weak military.
Then make Mexico not a failed state. Not too hard as far as alternate history challenges go. That’s going to be what Mexico reconquering Texas will require.
 
The Maximilian Regime had very little popular support, the moment the French have to leave it would collapse. The Americans made them leave in the OTL, and in a CSA Victory TL they have to leave by 1870, when the 2nd Empire falls. Even in a CSA Victory TL the United States would still work to force the French out, while the CSA would support the French, and their puppet Regime. After the fall of Maximilian Mexico would probable fall into the same kind of civil wars they did in the OTL. Mexico isn't conquering anyone, it was near failed state, with little internal strength, and a weak military.

The Franco-Prussian War isn't a fixed event; it could have very easily been butterflied by a successful French Intervention/CSA independence scenario. With troops still tied down in Mexico serving Napoleon III's ambitions, he probably would have turned to diplomacy and building alliances (probably with Austria and the South German states) to contain Prussia/the NGC. Given enough time, especially with Juarez on board, the Empire could have built up enough of a base of support while also having the French build up its army to at least avoid being overthrown.
 
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