AHC: German victory at Jutland

The Grand Fleet could lose HALF its BB and be back to parity in a few months and be clearly dominant in a year. There is also a reality that is often obscured by the poor performance of the Grand Fleet's BC, especially at Jutland, where the type proved to be disturbingly fragile. The RN BB designs were anything but fragile. In fact they demonstrated a robustness that remains quite surprising. The record of post Dreadnought battleships, of any nation, being vulnerable to sinking due solely to shellfire is remarkably scant.
The complete list is:

Bretange (sunk at anchor 1940)
Kirishima (2nd Battle of Guadalcanal 1942)

There are, of course, a number of other BB that have been mission killed, including Bismarck, Scharnhorst, and Hiei, to be finished off by either scuttling, torpedoes or air attack, but not in straight up gunfights.

Moreover a significant engagement in 1914 would demonstrate that Jellicoe's finding while 1st Sea Lord regarding RN AP shell designs were entirely valid. Next time the two fleets meet the HSF would be cut to pieces. Just not happening.
Assuming a German victory, the RN would build enough ships to be dominant in a year and that would return to the status quo seen in OTL WWI, except that the RN would have better shells earlier.
Assuming a German victory, the RN would build enough ships to be dominant in a year and that would return to the status quo seen in OTL WWI, except that the RN would have better shells earlier.

It takes years to build a dreadnoughts and battlecruisers, so I don't see the validity of such a quick timeframe.
What are the plausible ways that the HSF could've beaten the RN at Jutland?

Very nearly occurred OTL. To quote from @DD951:

Actually, the British came very close to losing 2 more capital ships to magazine explosions.​
Lion took a hit to Q turret, and fire, blast effects, and flash from propellant charges that were set off nearly reached the magazine, and only the quick reaction of the crew in flooding the magazine prevented her from going the way of her fellow battlecruisers.​
Malaya took a 12" hit on her starbord secondary battery, and flash and burning debris fell down the ammunition hoist, landing on a stack of propellant charges in the 6" magazine that were about to be sent up to the guns. If not for the quick action of a couple crewman at the hoist, those cordite charges would likely have exploded, with a distinct chance of setting off other charges in that magazine. That would have likely caused a catastrophic chain reaction as the forward 15" magazines were adjacent to that 6" magazine.​
A couple more possibilities involving a slightly greater POD- both Princess Royal & Tiger took turret & barbett hits that were rejected by the armor, although shock and severe spalling knocked those turrets out for a time. One of them also took a hit on a gun barrel near a gunport. If any of those shell impacts took place under slightly more favorable conditions (for the Germans), those hits could have penetrated with effects similiar to the turret/barbette hits that destroyed 3 other battlecruisers and nearly sank Lion.​
Marlborough is another possibility, after being torpedoed by German surface ships admidships, she withdrew and headed back to base, and while heading there, a German U-Boat got into firing position and launched a torpedo, which was spotted and evaded, due to a bad firing solution. Had that torpedo hit, Marlborough might not have survived.​
Warspite could be another possibility, if she wasn't as lucky when her steering gear jammed causing her to circle close to the HSF battleline. Similiarly, the combination of Beatty's inept signalling and Evan-Thomas's GF style of not doing anything without orders could have put the 5th BS into a rather sticky situation.​
The thing about HSF victories at Jutland, unless handed an ASB invulnerability shield any engagement where they manage to wreck the grand fleet in open battle (rather than sink two or three extra ships which will be replaced in short order) will also be one in which they take heavy losses.

Say somehow that happens and both sides are now down to a handful of operational dreadnoughts with Germany having more. What then?
The far blockade is still in place as it is primarily enforced by lighter RN forces such as destroyers, cruisers and AMCs. The remains of the HSF can sortie unopposed by peer heavy forces to try and punch a hole in the blockade, but there would be so few of them that to do so would risk being mobbed by said RN light units. There are enough RN destroyers and submarines in the North Sea and channel to make the Germans very wary of sending their few remaining heavy units into a potential wood chipper. And all the while the British yards will be operating at breakneck speed to get the Renowns, Revenges, and Admirals complete. Ships that once launched would tip the naval balance back in the UKs favour. The HSF will know this, and yet what can they do about it?
Close bombardment raids to destroy the dockyards? Possibly but at even greater risk of loosing their last dreadnoughts to mines, and torpedoes.
Invading Britain? Would actually stop the threat of the RN, but totally infeasible with then current German capabilities, and again a massive risk due to RN light forces.

Really winning at Jutland is merely step 1 in a long list of things that Germany has to accomplish to meaningfully achieve victory at sea.
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