With a PoD after 1848, what would be the earliest possible date for the independence of Indonesia? Alternatively, at what other dates could independence have been achieved?

A few important notes: Sarawak, North Borneo and Brunei all have to be part of this independent Indonesia, or at least have the realistic prospect of becoming a part of it in the not-too-far future; the name of the independent country doesn't necessarily have to be "Indonesia"; West Papua doesn't need to be part of it.

I'm looking forward to hearing about your ideas!
 
With a PoD after 1848, what would be the earliest possible date for the independence of Indonesia? Alternatively, at what other dates could independence have been achieved?

A few important notes: Sarawak, North Borneo and Brunei all have to be part of this independent Indonesia, or at least have the realistic prospect of becoming a part of it in the not-too-far future; the name of the independent country doesn't necessarily have to be "Indonesia"; West Papua doesn't need to be part of it.

I'm looking forward to hearing about your ideas!

1918 after a successful ''Troelstra's Revolution".
 

Lusitania

Donor
The issue is that an independent Indonesia dies not mean one with same borders. Even to get an Indonesia with same orders is hard to do after 1945 every time. It all depends if the individuals leading the revolts. The way the Europeans react.
 
The issue is that an independent Indonesia dies not mean one with same borders. Even to get an Indonesia with same orders is hard to do after 1945 every time. It all depends if the individuals leading the revolts. The way the Europeans react.

Of course, I understand that. But with a PoD after 1848, it should nevertheless be possible to create a pan-archipelago union that contains Java, Sumatra, Borneo, Sulawesi and the Moluccas.

IOTL, the Dutch already controlled large swathes of these areas from the 1860s onward.
 
But educated natives who thinks on idea of 'Indonesia' not yet appears. If Dutch (and other Europeans) somehow distracted, the result would be multiple kingdoms (possible hundreds) with dozens big one fighting for hegemony.
 

Lusitania

Donor
Of course, I understand that. But with a PoD after 1848, it should nevertheless be possible to create a pan-archipelago union that contains Java, Sumatra, Borneo, Sulawesi and the Moluccas.

IOTL, the Dutch already controlled large swathes of these areas from the 1860s onward.
A union no because regardless of the territory that Dutch controlled there was no guarantee that even those areas be together. Remember that in Java were a number of small kingdoms that alone could of been independent. Sumatra has many different tribes. Aceh be independent. So sorry independent yes, United no.
 
A pan-archipelago union is only really possible if the Dutch come round to voluntarily giving independence, which leans to a later independence date, after anti-colonialism had set in as a movement in Europe. An 1800s independence means doing it much more by forcing the issue, which means individuals taking islands. Each independent group wouldn't have the naval power to assert power over other islands. That would likely result in a series of warlords that might ally to kick out the Dutch, but each would have their own power centres they would maintain afterwards. And independence warlords tended to like building up their own power.
 
In terms of a country that is roughly analogous to OTL Indonesia, unlikely before the late 19th century. The Republic of Indonesia as a (supposedly) equal union between all the people of the former DEI is quite a specific distillation of the potential states that could have emerged from Dutch Imperialism. It required a good century of common experiences and ethnic/cultural intermixing in order to create that sense of identity. Obviously, in Aceh and West Papua, and a few other places, this identity ranged from weak to non-existent which is unsurprising given the rather divergent experiences these regions had compared to the Javanese/other Sumatran core. IMO an Indonesia that gained independence peacefully even in OTL would be unlikely to include those areas.

In terms of what is just the core region of Java/non-Acehnese Sumatra, IMO it's possible for a secular republic to emerge sometime after 1850 or so. Modern technology mutes the problems that previous archipelagic entities such as Srijaya and Majapahit had in maintaining basic centralised control, while ideas of nationalism slowly began to penetrate the urban centres around this time. The biggest variable, IMO, for an early independent Indonesia (other than 'how do they kick the Dutch out') is the disposition of the Eurasian/Indo population, who formed a huge percentage of the educated non-Dutch. If they support an independent state it is probably viable quite early, so long as that state has the support/patronage of a Great Power. Without them, the skills for running an economy that is so integrated with the rest of the world probably don't exist until the early 20th century.

So for an actual scenario, IMO the easiest way to achieve this would be a hostile takeover of the Netherlands themselves, perhaps by Germany, sometime during the 19th century which leaves the Dutch colonies unconquered but obviously unviable on their own without a metropole. This could certainly lead to another European power outright taking control of them, but as was seen in places like Egypt and Morocco it was possible for the imperialists to allow for some degree of local autonomy. Perhaps a Dutch government-in-exile that is essentially supported by the Eurasian/Indo population which gradually 'goes native' as the Indos take control through sheer numbers which also sees the Indonesian aristocracies regain some real power. This could eventually lead to a fully-formed independent state very early in the 20th century, with the right variations in North Atlantic power structures. The biggest hurdle is finding a reason for the Netherlands to be conquered during the time of the Concert of Europe...
 
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