AHC: Brazilian elections after a 1989 Lula victory

The 1989 Brazilian Election was IOTL a very close one, and it could've very well resulted in a Lula victory. Now, you must try to predict how every post-Lula Election would've gone after 1989. (For TTL, I assume that reelection would've been allowed by Lula, and that, even with a Congress that opposed him, he would be able to allow himself to run for reelection in 1993, but if you think that reelection would never be allowed or would be allowed later, it's okay to put that!).
My guess:
1989 - Lula
1993 - Orestes Quércia
1997 - Orestes Quércia
2001 - Ciro Gomes
2005 - Ciro Gomes
2009 - Cristovam Buarque
2013 - José Serra
2017 - José Serra
2021 - Marina Silva
@Vinization @Gukpard @AltoRegnant @RedAquilla @Guilherme Loureiro
 
My guess is that Lula would ultimately be remembered as an unsuccessful president (not necessarily a bad one, though) ITTL. He'd inherit a very bad economy from the Sarney years, and I doubt he could get a majority in Congress without PT scoring a truly gigantic victory in the 1990 elections, which I just can't see happening because the party wasn't firmly established throughout the country just yet. Jorge Vianna would likely become governor of Acre 8 years earlier (he first ran in 1990 and lost, became mayor of Rio Branco in 1992 and finally won the governorship in 1998), which could be interesting.

Also, I think Sarney's successor would get 5 years in the presidency instead of four (that was the time Collor and Itamar Franco served in total), and everyone else after got 4 year terms. I'm mixed on consecutive reelections being allowed to the executive, IIRC that was mostly a FHC project, plus he or his allies had to bribe congresspeople to vote for it.

My guess:

1989 - 1994: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT)
1994 - 1998: Tasso Jereissati (PSDB)
1998 - 2002: Someone else from PSDB (maybe Ciro Gomes, if he doesn't leave the party?)
2002 - 2006: Cristovam Buarque (PT)
2006 - 2010: Benedita da Silva (PT)
2010 - 2014: Jaques Wagner (PT)
2014 - 2018: ???
 
My guess is that Lula would ultimately be remembered as an unsuccessful president (not necessarily a bad one, though) ITTL. He'd inherit a very bad economy from the Sarney years, and I doubt he could get a majority in Congress without PT scoring a truly gigantic victory in the 1990 elections, which I just can't see happening because the party wasn't firmly established throughout the country just yet. Jorge Vianna would likely become governor of Acre 8 years earlier (he first ran in 1990 and lost, became mayor of Rio Branco in 1992 and finally won the governorship in 1998), which could be interesting.
I agree, Lula would have very bad luck
Also, I think Sarney's successor would get 5 years in the presidency instead of four (that was the time Collor and Itamar Franco served in total), and everyone else after got 4 year terms. I'm mixed on consecutive reelections being allowed to the executive, IIRC that was mostly a FHC project, plus he or his allies had to bribe congresspeople to vote for it.
I understand, I confess that I don't really know that much about how the reelection process in Brazil came to be
1989 - 1994: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT)
1994 - 1998: Tasso Jereissati (PSDB)
1998 - 2002: Someone else from PSDB (maybe Ciro Gomes, if he doesn't leave the party?)
2002 - 2006: Cristovam Buarque (PT)
2006 - 2010: Benedita da Silva (PT)
2010 - 2014: Jaques Wagner (PT)
2014 - 2018: ???
Nice!
 
Lula in 1989 was a left-wing radical with a lot of unorthodox economic takes, like not paying the international debt. He was also against the Plano Real, which was THE fix to Brazil's problems of massive economic inflation at the time. The Market hated him and prefered all his competitors for a good reason. He also looked like an unshaved hobo syndicalist.

Lula only won in 2002 because he actually cleaned up his image with help from Duda Mendonça and published the "Address to the Brazilian People", in which he went towards the centre by pledging towards economic orthodoxy and abandoning his old left-wing radical ideas. Lula 1989 and Lula 2002 are quite different beasts.

(also FHC at the time wanted him to win because he thought it would be healthier for brazilian democracy. Little he knew what was about to happen)

I can't see a 1989 Lula Presidency as anything other than a disaster, UNLESS Lula puts his 2000s pragmatism to use and allows some market types who know their economics to create an alt-Plano Real. Foreign investors will run from Brazil. More likely we will see the Latin American Left's usual response to run-away inflation - price controls. We all know how that turns out.

I think his successor in 1994 loses to someone from PSDB. Tasso Jereissati is a good example. Collor presidency is still possible.
and I doubt he could get a majority in Congress without PT scoring a truly gigantic victory in the 1990 elections, which I just can't see happening because the party wasn't firmly established throughout the country just yet
Same. The time of PT's political dominance is not yet.

1998 - 2002: Someone else from PSDB (maybe Ciro Gomes, if he doesn't leave the party?)
Serra or FHC, maybe? But that will probably depend on wherever they get spots in Tasso's presidency, which is quite likely.

Ciro Gomes will never be president of Brazil, not even in the future or alternate universes, unless he becomes someone else's vice president.

The man has a notably short fuse, is well-known for literally retconning things he stated before, has bad economic ideas, and he legitimately thinks he is the smartest man in Brazil who will lead us to greatness, but he's actually just the avatar of Dunning-Kruger. He studied some things and is above average national intelligence (which doesn't mean anything because most brazilians are dumb and unneducated - I know, I live here), so he thinks he is a genius. A loose cannon. He's essentially left-wing Bolsonaro without Bolsonaro's appeal. He is not that popular outside of Ceará.
 
Lula in 1989 was a left-wing radical with a lot of unorthodox economic takes, like not paying the international debt. He was also against the Plano Real, which was THE fix to Brazil's problems of massive economic inflation at the time. The Market hated him and prefered all his competitors for a good reason. He also looked like an unshaved hobo syndicalist.

Lula only won in 2002 because he actually cleaned up his image with help from Duda Mendonça and published the "Address to the Brazilian People", in which he went towards the centre by pledging towards economic orthodoxy and abandoning his old left-wing radical ideas. Lula 1989 and Lula 2002 are quite different beasts.

(also FHC at the time wanted him to win because he thought it would be healthier for brazilian democracy. Little he knew what was about to happen)

I can't see a 1989 Lula Presidency as anything other than a disaster, UNLESS Lula puts his 2000s pragmatism to use and allows some market types who know their economics to create an alt-Plano Real. Foreign investors will run from Brazil. More likely we will see the Latin American Left's usual response to run-away inflation - price controls. We all know how that turns out.

I think his successor in 1994 loses to someone from PSDB. Tasso Jereissati is a good example. Collor presidency is still possible.

Same. The time of PT's political dominance is not yet.


Serra or FHC, maybe? But that will probably depend on wherever they get spots in Tasso's presidency, which is quite likely.

Ciro Gomes will never be president of Brazil, not even in the future or alternate universes, unless he becomes someone else's vice president.

The man has a notably short fuse, is well-known for literally retconning things he stated before, has bad economic ideas, and he legitimately thinks he is the smartest man in Brazil who will lead us to greatness, but he's actually just the avatar of Dunning-Kruger. He studied some things and is above average national intelligence (which doesn't mean anything because most brazilians are dumb and unneducated - I know, I live here), so he thinks he is a genius. A loose cannon. He's essentially left-wing Bolsonaro without Bolsonaro's appeal. He is not that popular outside of Ceará.
Interesting analysis
 
most brazilians are dumb and unneducated - I know, I live here
Typical third world middle class lad.

You see the exact same people saying the same thing in india, bangladesh, argentina, the philippines, mexico etc etc etc

Also, price controls were a measure instituted by a right wing feudal lord brazilian president OTL.
 
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Typical third world middle class lad.

You see the exact same people saying the same thing in india, bangladesh, argentina, the philippines, mexico etc etc etc

Also, price controls were a measure instituted by a right wing feudal lord brazilian president OTL.
This, the other guy seems to conveniently ignore bad things the right has done in Brazil. Also, he implies that FHC trusting Lula was bad because...? Anyway, he has his right to have his opinions, but what's your own personal take on how the elections would've played out @dentista campora ?
 
Typical third world middle class lad.

You see the exact same people saying the same thing in india, bangladesh, argentina, the philippines, mexico etc etc etc

Also, price controls were a measure instituted by a right wing feudal lord brazilian president OTL.

Didn’t/doesn’t the Philippines align itself as part of the first world?
 
Typical third world middle class lad.

You see the exact same people saying the same thing in india, bangladesh, argentina, the philippines, mexico etc etc etc

Also, price controls were a measure instituted by a right wing feudal lord brazilian president OTL.
"Middle Class" lol. I've been poor, lower middle-class at best, all my life.

Average Brazilian IQ is 83. Yes, the average brazilian is dumb and uneducated. Its facts. Probably because so many people have horrible education, when they have any. Which is a pity, so many people have so much potential...

Yes, Sarney instituted price controls. I wouldn't exactly call him a right-winger, more like an opportunistic wing.
This, the other guy seems to conveniently ignore bad things the right has done in Brazil.
There was no right wing in 1989 Brazil, tho. The Brazilian Right-Wing pretty much ended with the Military Regime (who were center-right at most). We have a right-wing now, but honestly it's pretty weak, and I think it will be a minor but important force at best after 2022.
Also, he implies that FHC trusting Lula was bad because...?
FHC believes alternation in power was a good thing and would lead to a healthier brazilian democracy. He wasn't entirely wrong, but he chose the wrong person entirely. Lula and co were never content with merely taking power for a while, their power project was to dominate the brazilian government for decades until PT was the uncontested strongest party in the country, and they would do it by pretty much taking over the machinery of state. They almost did it, too, but Lula's two likely political sucessors (Antônio Palloci and José Dirceu) fell out of favour in two unrelated political scandals, and then he picked a pretty bad sucessor.

I'm not sure what would happen in a Tasso Presidency, tho. I need to do more research. I think both PT and PSDB would be tired forces by the end of the 90s TTL, but I can't think who could fill the void.
 
Lula and co were never content with merely taking power for a while, their power project was to dominate the brazilian government for decades until PT was the uncontested strongest party in the country, and they would do it by pretty much taking over the machinery of state. They almost did it, too, but Lula's two likely political sucessors (Antônio Palloci and José Dirceu) fell out of favour in two unrelated political scandals, and then he picked a pretty bad sucessor.
Hmmm thanks, I didn't actually know that!
 
How likely is it that Enéas Carneiro becomes President ITTL?
Rather unlikely, I would say.

I think the issue of Enéas is that he seemed and presented like a raving madman at the time, even through time has been kind to him and seeing his videos on youtube shows him spitting mad facts. Didn't help him that he brought up that Brazil should have an atomic bomb to be respected on the world scenario, so I remember when I was a kid that he was considered the atomic bomb nut. That beard did him no favours either. Enéas was an immensely intelligent man, but needed serious PR work - Lula's PR also sucked until his 2002 run, he looked like an unwashed, dirty bearded syndicalist with the rhetoric to match ("Let's not pay the international debt at all!" ...yeaaaaaah, riiight).

Anyway, even if he did get his PR lift-up from some Duda Mendonça type, I think the biggest issue with Enéas, is that his economics were outdated and very much out of vogue. Enéas was clearly a Desenvolvimentist of the CEPAL type, a brazilian form of Keynesianism. Thing is, the country at the time had just come out of multiple decades of State Capitalist Keynesianism since the rule of Getulio Vargas. It saw a lot of growth during this period, but also ridiculous inflation and big boom-bust cycles. The Economic Miracle was the peak of the whole model, with the brazilian economy stronger than ever, but rather than slowly liberalizing (I think a famous economist - Roberto Campos was it? - had a good model for that), General Geisel (who took the reins after General Medici) decided to double down on the state control. Cue disaster and the Lost Decade, which showed how depleted the economic model of "Developmentism" was. Its why Itamar/FHC were total breaks, they went away from the Getulio Vargas model of economics towards something more open. An incomplete transition, but its pretty much why Brazil has an economy superior to much of Latin America.

Economically wise, he would be pretty much be Ciro Gomes or Brizola, but with an actual intellect.

Also I'm not sure how much political support he would be able to get. He never had a big party or movement behind his back.

Now, if Enéas abandoned his obsolete ideas and embraced economic orthodoxy... well, it would depend on how much political support he would be able to get for needed reforms and such. If he got good political support, he might be able to do some very good things, Enéas for all his faults was clearly a quite intelligent man
 
Rather unlikely, I would say.

I think the issue of Enéas is that he seemed and presented like a raving madman at the time, even through time has been kind to him and seeing his videos on youtube shows him spitting mad facts. Didn't help him that he brought up that Brazil should have an atomic bomb to be respected on the world scenario, so I remember when I was a kid that he was considered the atomic bomb nut. That beard did him no favours either. Enéas was an immensely intelligent man, but needed serious PR work - Lula's PR also sucked until his 2002 run, he looked like an unwashed, dirty bearded syndicalist with the rhetoric to match ("Let's not pay the international debt at all!" ...yeaaaaaah, riiight).

Anyway, even if he did get his PR lift-up from some Duda Mendonça type, I think the biggest issue with Enéas, is that his economics were outdated and very much out of vogue. Enéas was clearly a Desenvolvimentist of the CEPAL type, a brazilian form of Keynesianism. Thing is, the country at the time had just come out of multiple decades of State Capitalist Keynesianism since the rule of Getulio Vargas. It saw a lot of growth during this period, but also ridiculous inflation and big boom-bust cycles. The Economic Miracle was the peak of the whole model, with the brazilian economy stronger than ever, but rather than slowly liberalizing (I think a famous economist - Roberto Campos was it? - had a good model for that), General Geisel (who took the reins after General Medici) decided to double down on the state control. Cue disaster and the Lost Decade, which showed how depleted the economic model of "Developmentism" was. Its why Itamar/FHC were total breaks, they went away from the Getulio Vargas model of economics towards something more open. An incomplete transition, but its pretty much why Brazil has an economy superior to much of Latin America.

Economically wise, he would be pretty much be Ciro Gomes or Brizola, but with an actual intellect.

Also I'm not sure how much political support he would be able to get. He never had a big party or movement behind his back.

Now, if Enéas abandoned his obsolete ideas and embraced economic orthodoxy... well, it would depend on how much political support he would be able to get for needed reforms and such. If he got good political support, he might be able to do some very good things, Enéas for all his faults was clearly a quite intelligent man
Thank you, Enéas was simply not in the right time to spout his ideas
 
Lula would be quickly impeached, his plan in 1989 was to confiscate the savings of all person's like Collor.
Also stop paying the IMF and foreign debt.
Left-wing would be crippled for decades.
Which in hindsight would be a good thing.
Collor and his satanic rituals* would be still be a major force in politics after a close presidential win, he would be courted by many parties, i think he would eventually join the psdb.
*His ex-wife detailed how he was high on coke all the time and sacrificed animals and other offerings in the basement of the presidential palace.
 
Thank you, Enéas was simply not in the right time to spout his ideas
Much obliged!
I actually like Enéas, I just disagree on his economics. I'm biased in this matter, of course. Miss me with that Getulio Vargas shit.
Feels like Eneas' ideas were more appropriate for the 50s not the 90s.

I wonder if someone like Roberto Campos could have knocked some sense on him in the 90s and been a good economic assessor/minister. Roberto Campos is a weird case of a noted economist who went from Keynesianism to Liberalism in the 70s. He literally built the State Leviathan, and then went "damn, this shit sucks" in his later life, when he realized the immense state keeps Brazil backwards. Delfim Neto says that later in life they talked and Campos just went "Delfim, I wasted so much time. I should have just read Hayek."

I feel like someone in the vein of Roberto Campos could have managed to bridge that divide between Keynesianism and Liberalism for Enéas.

Collor and his satanic rituals* would be still be a major force in politics after a close presidential win, he would be courted by many parties, i think he would eventually join the psdb.
*His ex-wife detailed how he was high on coke all the time and sacrificed animals and other offerings in the basement of the presidential palace.
Ah yes, we always keep forgetting - That Time Brazil was Ruled By a Satanistic Coke Fiend who did Black Magic Rituals in His Own Basement.*

*Not to be mistaken for That TIme Brazil Was Ruled by Para-Masons. Or That Time Brazil Was Ruled By a Mentally Challenged Military Officer Who Was Actually a Puppet.

Damn, and he would probably feel vindicated and win 1989

You mean 1993?
 
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