AH discussion: Ireland remains in the UK

Initial prompt
Say that a successful devolved government of Ireland act passes in the early 1900s – preferably before the Great War.
What would be the political, demographic, religious and economic consequences throughout the 20th century for the UK as a whole?

Are the Troubles avoided, or do they make OTL look like child’s play?

What of the Irish economy? What are the odds that the island ends up more prosperous by the late 20th century than OTL? And similarly: how bad would things get in TTL’s “Winter of Discontent” in the 1970s?

Please discuss.
 
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Say that a successful devolved government of Ireland act passes in the early 1900s – preferably before the Great War.
What would be the political, demographic, religious and economic consequences throughout the 20th century for the UK as a whole?

Are the Troubles avoided, or do they make OTL look like child’s play?

What of the Irish economy? What are the odds that the island ends up more prosperous by the late 20th century than OTL? And similarly: how bad would things get in TTL’s “Winter of Discontent” in the 1970s?

Please discuss.

The problem with Home Rule is that it was opposed by the House of Lords which until 1911 had unchecked veto power over legislation passed by the Commons. Only when Asquith needed to bypass the Lords in order to enact his People's Budget was their power limited by the Parliament Act of 1911, which made it so that the Commons could overrule the Lords. Until then, Home Rule had no chance of being approved by Parliament.
 
Delay WW1 by a year and you likely get Irish and Scottish home rule. Also civil war in Northern Ireland, a more inward-looking government that has less time for Europe and probably a federalized UK.
 
Home Rule means Ulster will be on fire shortly afterwards, and what’s more with the actions of the Conservatives and the military, trying to deal with it is going to be an utter nightmare for London, so yeah likely that the U.K. is going to be dealing with domestic issues even more so than they were in OTL as Europe slides towards war.

Longer term it’s almost impossible to predict an accurate outcome. How much damage might the UVF inflict, will Dublin have to keep increased forces there or deal with having the second city and heart of the industry on the island separated all OTL? How would the European situation play out, and what state might the face of Europe be after a World War? Would London be willing to provide subvention funding as they did for OTL NI from the 30s onwards?

Is Home Rule the end point or could their be a drift towards Dominion status? Socially does Ireland liberalise along with the U.K. or do the Churches retain their power? If still a part of the U.K. then the chances to purse economic policies that might attract FDI from the 60s onwards might be limited, see the difference between NI and ROI.
 
Say that a successful devolved government of Ireland act passes in the early 1900s – preferably before the Great War.
What would be the political, demographic, religious and economic consequences throughout the 20th century for the UK as a whole?

Are the Troubles avoided, or do they make OTL look like child’s play?

What of the Irish economy? What are the odds that the island ends up more prosperous by the late 20th century than OTL? And similarly: how bad would things get in TTL’s “Winter of Discontent” in the 1970s?

Please discuss.
longterm I think dominion status in the south is quite likely. Keeping Ireland as part of the UK probably requires an earlier POD (and involves the british being willing to nip everything in the bud by giving emancipation with the Act of Union, a slightly more proactive famine response (ie not saying okay famine over, time to stop aid) and favouring land reform. Each time there is resistance it forms discontent with the UK and indigneous groups fo agitation of political rights. O'Connell hated sectarianism, but utilised it to the full extent for the Catholic Association.
You have to find a way to politicise the population to be more pro british (and the otl political movements, catholic association, IPP etc were all for the most part moderate)
Even Sinn Fein were initially looking towards a dual kingdom model, the monarch was surprisingly popular in Ireland. Regardless we will go on the assumption Ireland remains in the UK. I've always considered Home Rule and devolution a somewhat haphazard federal model rather than a more comprehensive design.

Firstly a significant discussion around Home Rule from 1912 on was partition, temporary or otherwise. This is probably the best compromise, four county NI and the South within the UK as a whole. Otherwise there will either be violence or at the very least tensions and discontent in the North. See the immediate aftermath of the Act of Union, most believed emancipation was right around the corner and some were far from happy about it. Civil war is possible, but from everything i can see as home rulers got desperate they were increasingly willing to concede on the North. For this I will say partition happened, because otherwise its probably a civil war. Irish parties can play as kingmakers in parliament, which will make things very interesting in the flux of post ww1 politics in Britain. It gives the Liberals options that they did not have otl.

On the economy, this is quite interesting. If civil war is avoided, Ireland is financially much better off. The Irish economy was, for the most part pretty tied to the British economy until joining the EEC, so wouldn't be surprised if performance is similar. WW2 is where it gets interesting, more basing from Ireland, more good coal for the railways, more Marshall aid postwar. Again, this makes for a very interesting postwar political environment.

Ireland is nowhere close to as industrialised as Britain, so winter of discontent is hard to judge.

The Troubles. Hard to tell, again the South can throw its political weight around westminster, so there might be pressing to 'keep NI honest', trying to prevent gerrymandering and discrimination against Catholics. However, likely being a four county NI, this might be more acceptable, with a smaller catholic nationalist population, there may be less fear of sharing proportional power, as unionist would retain a more significant majority compared to otl. Hard to say, but interesting to consider. If violence does break out it could be more widespread, the South being more politically engaged with the topic compared to the otl Republic (officially).
 
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Integrated. Like Scotland and Wales today.
Almost impossible without a pre-1900 POD. At least IMHO.

Unless Unionists were willing to accept a devolved governments with fewer powers than the Home Rule Bill. Nearer to those of the Welsh Assembly now rather than Stormont in 1922. Administrative rather than legislative control.

But even that might be seen as "Rome Rule" and resisted tooth and nail.
 
On the economy, this is quite interesting. If civil war is avoided, Ireland is financially much better off. The Irish economy was, for the most part pretty tied to the British economy until joining the EEC, so wouldn't be surprised if performance is similar. WW2 is where it gets interesting, more basing from Ireland, more good coal for the railways, more Marshall aid postwar. Again, this makes for a very interesting postwar political environment.
losing even a four county NI with greater Belfast will still pretty much shag the Dublin economy though, and then you get into questions about major capital funding like for the Ardnacrusha scheme. WW2 of course also brings the issue of much more damage to the island (and much larger questions about spending/investment before that) and the loss of people as well…
 
I don't think this possible without a POD early in the 19th Century.

With a post-1900 POD you are dealing with what I think as the Dominion issue. Even if everything goes absolutely great with devolution (itself verging on ASB given the Ulster Unionists) a Home Rule government will almost certainly begin to move towards Dominion status and the greater level of powers that entails. The problem with Home Rule is that it is kind of the worst of both worlds; for Unionists it breaks the emotional link of the Union anyway while for Nationalists it delivers something very anaemic compared to the level of self government Canada or Australia enjoy.
 
Almost impossible without a pre-1900 POD. At least IMHO.

Unless Unionists were willing to accept a devolved governments with fewer powers than the Home Rule Bill. Nearer to those of the Welsh Assembly now rather than Stormont in 1922. Administrative rather than legislative control.

But even that might be seen as "Rome Rule" and resisted tooth and nail.
Well Stormont 1922 was effectively Home Rule rather than the “devolved” government that Scotland and Wales have now.
 
I don't think this possible without a POD early in the 19th Century.

With a post-1900 POD you are dealing with what I think as the Dominion issue. Even if everything goes absolutely great with devolution (itself verging on ASB given the Ulster Unionists) a Home Rule government will almost certainly begin to move towards Dominion status and the greater level of powers that entails. The problem with Home Rule is that it is kind of the worst of both worlds; for Unionists it breaks the emotional link of the Union anyway while for Nationalists it delivers something very anaemic compared to the level of self government Canada or Australia enjoy.
Just like with the SNP in the Scottish Parliament today pushing for independence within the European Union. They want the freedom to act as they wish but the security of being part of a larger group of nations both for protection from more powerful nations and open access to various markets.
 
Just like with the SNP in the Scottish Parliament today pushing for independence within the European Union. They want the freedom to act as they wish but the security of being part of a larger group of nations both for protection from more powerful nations and open access to various markets.
Not really, just that Home Rule and the inherent restrictions that are part of it will likely start a push some of the Irish to push for the greater powers and freedoms of being a Dominion. Not sure why you throw in current SNP issues.
 
Not really, just that Home Rule and the inherent restrictions that are part of it will likely start a push some of the Irish to push for the greater powers and freedoms of being a Dominion. Not sure why you throw in current SNP issues.
Perhaps because they illustrate precisely this process. Holyrood initially was described as a 'wee pretendy Parliament' (Billy Connolly) with powers similar to the old GLC. Soon agitation from Nationalists got it tax raising and other powers.
 
If Ireland is to remain in the UK you need some sort of great statesman to avoid a civil war and some sort of economic miracle so that the Irish don't feel like an exploited minority.
 
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