"A Very British Transition" - A Post-Junta Britain TL

Very enjoyable from start to finish a chilling and plausible what if and I am so glad I wasn't living there as I'm not entirely sure how my life would have gone with an Irish mother and RN officer father.
 
Great way to end this amazing TL. It has been a wild ride but I have enjoyed it. I would definitely read a prequel TL showing the early days of Mountbatten's regime. Can't wait for whatever new story you do next 😊
 
A really nice way to end this tl. Will share my full thoughts about the tl after the epilogue chapters have been posted but this has been an amazing tl.
Also what will the epilogue chapters contain? Will they be about the different parties like in the Commonwealth tl?
 
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Honestly, this is perhaps the best ending that can be asked for given all that went on. There will be problems ahead, but for now the difficult conversations have been had and concrete progress appears to be on the verge of being made.

Grand timeline, mate!
 
A really nice way to end this tl. Will share my full thoughts about the tl after the epilogue chapters have been posted but this has been an amazing tl.
Also what will the epilogue chapters contain? Will they be about the different parties like in the Commonwealth tl?
They'll general try and tie up lose ends in the world, like Mountbatten's exhumation, the peace process in Scotland etc. There will be some about the political situation but a breakdown of the various parties is unlikely - the bookies odds for President was a very Commonwealth thing, it wouldn't make as much sense in AVBT Britain.
 
Epilogue 1 - Scotland
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Britain Pardons Jailed Scottish Separatist Leaders

By Cristina Gallardo, POLITICO


Britain's government approved pardons to a group of separatists for their failed attempt to form a breakaway state. This is considered a major olive branch in a conflict that has long divided the country.

The pardons, made good on recent promises by Bell Ribeiro-Addy to reconcile with a separatist movement that in 2018 rocked the UK. Britain's courts declared the vote illegal and the government ordered a crackdown, sending in riot squads.

Officials also ordered wide-ranging arrests, including those of the 6 politicians on sedition charges. The prisoners were jailed about two and a half years ago.

In an announcement from Downing Street, Ms. Ribeiro-Addy offered a conciliatory tone that signalled a shift from past confrontational stances. She said pardoning them was in the public interest.

“It’s best for Scotland, it’s best for our United Kingdom,” he said.

The government did not offer complete pardons to the prisoners, maintaining bans on holding UK political office for some of them.

Among those receiving clemency were Patrick Harvie, the former President and his Deputy Keith Brown. Others included Tommy Sheppard who had been in charge of external affairs for the former Scottish government.

Those who fled the country to avoid prosecution, including Harvie, are still banned from holding elected office at a UK level. Mr. Harvie has lived for more than two years in Ireland which has declined to extradite him. He won election in 2019 to one of Britain’s seats in the European Parliament.

The decision did not come without risks for Ms Ribeiro-Addy, who has been fending off criticism that her party has been soft on the separatists. Many Brits regard them as little more than lawbreakers, separatists claim they are political prisoners.

Three major political parties demonstrated in London, in a protest against the pardons that drew an estimated 35,000 people.

Polls show most Brits oppose the pardons.

“The pardons are a prize for those who have destroyed families, those that have broken the law,” said Ruth Davidson, a Scottish politician. “It’s a humiliation to those in Scotland who continue to be loyal to the Cardiff Accords and follow the law.”

Ms Davidson noted that until recently the junior SDP maintained that the separatists needed to answer for their crimes, but that the coalition now needed support from Scottish nationalists to pass laws.

Many observers point out that for a government looking to win hearts and minds in Scotland, the timing could be favourable.

Historian Tom Devine, said that in the years since the referendum, the momentum of the independence movement has flagged. The means there may be little threat in releasing the prisoners.

“From the point of view of the state,” he said, “it’s a gesture that confirms the victory of the state — the gesture that the winner chooses to make.”

Mr. Devine also said that by releasing the prisoners, the government deprived the independence movement of martyrs. These martyrs could have been used to push for more confrontation with Westminster. That gives more breathing room to moderates in Scotland

The jailing stems from a longstanding conflict over who should govern in Scotland, a region of five million that is home to an independent culture.

The 2018 referendum was held in the face of a court ruling that it was illegal. The separatists declared victory despite polls showing a divided public, and declared independence. The Harvie administration would later be dissolved by the British government in the crackdown.

The next showdown came in the trial of the independence leaders, which dominated the news for months. In 2019, Britain’s Supreme Court gave the group prison sentences for crimes that included sedition and misuse of public funds.

The long prison sentences stunned many human rights observers, including Amnesty International, which said jailed separatists amounted to political prisoners in the heart of Europe.

Reactions to the pardons were mixed among some members of the independence movement.

“On a personal note, getting them out of prison will make me happy,” said Jeane Freeman, a RISE MP. “But the whole process seems like an enormous bad joke.”

Ms Freeman said that her goal was not pardons, but instead a declaration of amnesty by the British government. This would amount to a statement that the prisoners had not committed any crimes, and an agreement to allow a new independence referendum.

Conservatives were also not pleased by the pardons, though for different reasons.

“This sends a confusing message to citizens about equity in justice,” said Niall Ferguson, who works as an economist in London. “I’m not saying I’m against it in the future, but right now, no, because only a little time has passed and they’re not sorry.”
 
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The 2018 referendum was held in the face of a court ruling that it was illegal. The separatists declared victory despite polls showing a divided public, and declared independence. The Harvie administration would later be dissolved by the Spanish government in the crackdown.
I think this should be British.
A very interesting thread.
 
a region of 5.4 million that is home to an independent culture.

Can I suggest dropping this number?

Scotland had *a lot* of emigration between 1970 and 2001 in OTL. I can't see the population being the same in TTL with greater political repression, actual paramilitaries, worse economic opportunities and a dictatorship to contend with.

It's a small detail but would show how the drastic political changes you've have affected the country.
 
Can I suggest dropping this number?

Scotland had *a lot* of emigration between 1970 and 2001 in OTL. I can't see the population being the same in TTL with greater political repression, actual paramilitaries, worse economic opportunities and a dictatorship to contend with.

It's a small detail but would show how the drastic political changes you've have affected the country.
I think it was decided early on not to mess with the population too much. Yes the borderline civil war and worse economy would increase emigration rates and lower the population but at the same time the country being poorer, having worse education and less access to contraception means birthrates would be higher. There's just so many variables that coming up with an exact figure would be like throwing darts at a board.
 
“The pardons are a prize for those who have destroyed families, those that have broken the law,” said Ruth Davidson, a Scottish politician. “It’s a humiliation to those in Scotland who continue to be loyal to the Cardiff Accords and follow the law.”
cope
 
Epilogue 2 - The Coalition
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The UK Coalition’s 5 Major Political And Economic Challenges For 2020

By Linda Yueh, Forbes


Ten months after acting prime minister William Hague called early elections in March the UK has a government. The political fragmentation has meant the end of the two-party system in the country.

15 political groups have achieved representation in the Commons and regional forces are more present than ever.

The UK's first coalition government

A new era of negotiations has come to stay in the British political scene. The UPA signed an agreement with the moderate SDP “to form a progressive coalition.” The political blockade despite two general elections this year has put an end to a nearly hundred year old peacetime solo government tradition in the UK.

Most of the regional parties have given support to the coalition whilst Unity, National and the Centrists voted against it. Ribeiro-Addy is reliant on the support of the radical pro-independence RISE party.

Relations between SDP and RISE have been strained lately, especially after the SDP amended former leader Patrick Harvie's pardon deal to prevent him from running for election in the future. But, the radicalization of the British right-wing with the rise of the Centrists have pushed both forces together. 94% of RISE members voted in favour of supporting the UPA-SDP coalition last month.

Time for dialogue in Scotland?

2019 has marked the peak of the Scottish crisis. After a long trial, Scottish separatist leaders were sentenced in November. The verdict triggered massive protests across Scotland and violent clashes with the police.

During the election campaign, right-wing forces hardened their discourse against separatism. The Centrists proposed to ban all nationalist parties while National wanted to suspend Scottish devolution.

The political tension did not match the expectations of the majority of the British people, who are in favour of a rapprochement. According to YouGov, 68% of Brits prefer dialogue to resolve the Scottish crisis versus the 23% who support an "iron fist."

Cooperation between the Coalition and RISE opens the door to a new period of understanding. RISE has so far left behind the idea of a unilateral declaration of independence, although it insists on the need for a referendum. For which they would need permission from Westminster.

Ongoing unemployment and brain drain


The dark days of the economic recession were left behind a few years ago and the UKs growth data surpasses that of major European powers. But, the crisis has left a desolate scenario for the British labour market. According to data from the ONS, the unemployment rate in the third quarter of 2019 was 14%, affecting more than 4.5 million people.

The UK has the second worst unemployment data in the EU–where the average is at 6%, – only ahead of Greece. It gets worse for those under 25 years old, whose unemployment rate is currently at 32%. Job insecurity following the recession keeps suffocating British youth, whose salary fell by 15% between 2008 and 2016.

The millennial generation in the UK is still condemned by the austerity measures, which is causing a serious “brain drain”.

A recent study by the CEPS has highlighted that Britain and Italy are the two EU countries where the so-called brain drain occurs the most. Between 2007 and 2017, some 123,000 qualified British workers emigrated to other Member States. Unemployment and wages were the main reasons for leaving.

The Coalition has announced the creation of a "Return Plan" to attract Brits who fled Britain after the economic crisis.

Will global uncertainty impact on the UK's economic growth?

For the last five years the British economy has been growing uninterrupted. This makes it possible to leave Brussels’ supervision over the deficit behind. But, Britain’s resistance to global uncertainty could soon begin to fade.

At the beginning of 2019 the government’s forecast pointed to an optimistic growth of 2.2% in 2019 and 1.9% in 2020. But last month the OECD noted that the British economy is slowing down faster than expected and reduced the forecast to 2% for this year and 1.6% for 2020.

The UK will still perform better than the eurozone average, including Germany, France, and Italy. But the less favourable international context can lead to unforeseen damage in 2020.

Ribeiro-Addy's Google tax, possible U.S. tariffs and the ongoing Airbus-Boeing WTO dispute may hit the British economy next year. Brussels’ continuity to back up EU Member States will play a decisive role in this context.

Officers dissent

The UK has celebrated the 16th anniversary of the Cardiff Accords this week as some former members of the armed forces made inflammatory declarations.

A group of 382 former military personnel marked the anniversary by attacking the coalition government in a letter to the monarch. They complained that Britain’s unity was under threat from Scottish separatists.

The letter came after it emerged that retired officers had used a WhatsApp group to talk about firing on Scottish separatists.

Some of those in the chat group were among the 103 former officers who wrote to King Charles last month to express their hatred of the coalition

Defence Secretary, Rachel Shabi has sent details of the WhatsApp group chat to prosecutors to see whether a crime had been committed.

The chat and the letter also prompted the chief of the defence staff to accuse those involved of “damaging the image of the armed forces”.

“The opinions of these people cannot be seen as representative of the collective to which they once belonged,” said Gordon Messenger. Their thoughts, he added, should instead be seen as those of private citizens.
 
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