A Time of Apprehension - The 1940s

[Grey Wolf]

Spring 1940

The Spring sees Russian operations in Bengal stepped up a level, but getting the troops to the front has proved only part of the problem. The vehicles and aircraft need oil, whilst food, ammunition, and sundry supplies are needed in constant large numbers to support them. The Indian rail network is constantly crippled by incapacity, wearing out of rolling stock, and guerilla actions in those regions of Bengal under Indian control which constantly see sections of the track blown up, bridges mined and even ambushes, especially on fuel transports which make an impressive pyrotechnic display

Russia is able to pick up some of the slack by using its long-range aircraft, but this removes them from any combat-related role. Attempts to ship in supplies falls foul of two facts of life - the first that the Russian mercantile marine is lamentably small, and the second that the Japanese have the mouth of the Ganges blockaded. Moscow continually protests this Japanese action, but Tokyo insists it is 'heavy diplomacy' and is being carried out to force all sides to agree to the proposed international conference

Aware of Chinese concerns about Russia's growing influence within India, Tsar Vladimir decides to send a high-powered delegation to Peking. Headed by one of the more able generals of the 'middle' generation, Konstantin Rokossovsky, the mission has widespread plenipotentiary powersm and has been fully briefed by the Tsar and the State Council on what Russia hopes to get out of the negotiations

The Russian mission is viewed with some alarm by Mongolia and the Far Eastern Republic, and both increase defence spending, the latter contracting out to the Federal Republic of Canada as well as its usual Japanese and Chinese suppliers

Indian 'action groups' in Bengal and Assam form themselves into a National Federation. Composed of pro-Delhi guerilla-type fighters, these include the units which desroyed Burmah's attempts to transport supplies across Assam to the Bengali independence regime. The National Federation, however, resists any moves to incorporate it into the Indian Confederal Army, and also refuses to operate under Russian command, whilst remaining quite happy to co-operate with the Russians as an equal partner. Both Delhi and Moscow find their leaders tiresome, but especially where Assam is concerned have little alternative but to work with them on the terms they insist upon as the alternative is to lose any controlling influence in the territory

- - -

In the USA, the Democratic primaries heat up as Breckinridge reveals to the world the full facts of Roosevelt's paralysis. Causing something of a major sensation in media circles, the move serves to derail both Breckinridge and FDR's campaigns as a backlash against such callous underhand tactics combines with concern over having such a head of state, and one who was not honest about his physical condition the first time round. Henry Wallace begins to make significant advances

At the same time, the Socialist Party of America sees their primaries pit veteran candidate Norman Thomas against the fresh blood of James P Cannon, a brief one-time communist-sympathiser who talks up his pre-1917 involvement with the Socialist Party of America, and down his brief 1917-1920 flirt with the far left. Many in the media, however, root out this unsavoury portion of his life and roundly condemn him, but among the labour unions it only adds to his popularity where the worthy but conservative-looking Thomas fails to inspire

President Vandenberg faces no serious threat to his renomination and is happy to let his would-be rivals fight amongst themselves

- - -

The Imperial German Navy commissions the Deutschland, first of its new battleships; armed with 16.5" guns it is a match for any vessel currently operational in the world. Kaiser Wilhelm III officiates at the ceremony, and the new ship is immediately made fleet flagship of the High Seas Fleet. Admiral Canaris happily makes his home upon her

- - -

The Battle of Valladolid begins in force, with Rommel throwing in everything of his Franco-German force, and King Juan moving up to the front in person to observe the deployment of the best units of the Royalist Army. The Germans now boast fifty of the new Heinkel jets, and the Socialists, even with the best propeller-driven fighters they have been hurriedly rearming with from Canada and the USA, are unable to seriously contest control of the skies.

The mass deployment of the, ironically, German-designed panzer faust, or personal anti-tank rocket launcher among the defending forces delivers a valuable blow in the Socialists' favour. So many Tiger II's are disabled in the attack that Rommel calls off his tanks until his panzer grenadiers can clear a path for them. The heavy armour on the Tiger IIs prevent many from being actually destroyed, but blowing off the tracks is sufficient to render them immobile.

On the defenders side, the few Canadian-built Independence style heavy tanks that they have been able to buy shock Rommel's forces with a well-placed counter-attack to the flank. Although driven off by dive-bombers, few of these vehicles suffer much damage and most are available for the next stage of the conflict

Observers on both sides watch the battle with interest. US observers on the Socialist side of the lines note the effectiveness of the panzerfaust, and also, with some satisfaction, the combat value of the Independence tanks of which the US Army has purchased a goodly number


Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

Summer 1940

Twin crises grip the world


In Cairo, King Fuad is assassinated in the midst of a medal ceremony. His assassin, striking from within the ranks of his Personal Guard, is immediately gunned down, a move the Prime Minister comes to decry as it leaves the police and special forces floundering in the dark as to the motive

German Military Intelligence officials meet with the young King Farouk and his advisors, and inform them that there appears to be a small but deep conspiracy involving deeply devout officers revolted by the late king's dealing with the United States and bitter about the compromise peace with 'infidel' Abyssinia. The Germans also indicate that some of the leading elements of the Hejazi exile community within Cairo may have been involved


Off the Matla mouth of the Ganges, the Japanese battleship Kii is torpedoed by a motorboat operated from the inland waterways by one of the pro-Delhi 'action groups'. Initially in danger of sinking, the 18"-gunned vessel is eventually counter-flooded and towed by her sister ship the Uji to Chittagong

Tokyo protests vehemently to Delhi, and once again presses for an international conference to settle the remaining Indian issues in a peaceful manner, rather than the dangers and risk that the current messy situation bring to the surface. In Washington, President Vandenberg echoes these sentiments, whilst King Jean III, getting involved from Paris, offers the French capital as a neutral venue. French holdings in India, Pondicherry etc, are not threatened and remain secure, but give the French kingdom an opportunity to involve itself in arguments between the great powers of the world

Moscow rejects the calls, once again, but condemns the actions of a 'renegade' group. Nehru remains silent, but Gandhi whips up trouble by criticising this stance and by once again demanding to know what Nehru has promised Russia in return for their help in the civil conflicts


Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

Japanese use of Chittagong causes its own diplomatic crisis. To date, the port city which is in Bengali rebel hands, had been used indirectly by the Japanese blockading force, to purchase supplies from etc. Having to take the disabled Kii there, the move appears to indicate a Japanese intention to base their ships in what Delhi and Moscow view as rebellious Indian territory. It is also met with jubilation in Dacca where it is likewise viewed as a further recognition by Japan of the legitimacy of the Bengali Independence Government, as it is now being termed in the world's media

In Peking, General Rokossovsky's mission bears fruit with the signing of the Peking Accord. Russia agrees to cede a percentage of their oil fields in Turkmenistan to the Chinese Republic, in return for credit with the Republican Bank of China which is used to purchase large amounts of much-needed supplies, and the mercantile shipping to get this to India. From Shanghai and Canton, convoys of Russian-chartered vessels begin to form up

Tokyo responds by restating the blockade of the mouth of the Ganges, including all approaches to Calcutta itself. An additional battle squadron, comprising the four rebuilt Kongos and the new fleet carrier Taiho is sent to Rangoon, and Japanese airfields in Cambodia and Southern Vietnam receive state-of-the-art replacements for their aircraft, plus the deployment of paratroop units with the most modern equipment. In addition, twelve of the gigantic submarine cruisers are despatched to the Bay of Bengal

In Washington, President Vandenberg watches these events with concern. The US battle squadron at Madras begins to seem like a liability - it has not provided much American influence in recent times, and yet it acts to create the risk that the USA might be drawn into any great power conflict over Bengal. However, withdrawing it would be seen as an act of weakness, so Washington eventually orders the new fleet carriers Yorktown and Bunker Hill, with attendant cruisers, to sail from Pearl Harbour and reinforce Admiral Kimmel's force

Vice President Borah roundly condemns this, and goes public with his protest, comparing the situation to that in Australian waters that presaged the Second World War. Whilst many Republicans privately accept that he may well have a point, Vandenberg has no choice but to ensure that at the coming convention Borah is removed from the ticket. He begins to work towards the inclusion of Alfred M Landon as Vice President nominate instead.

- - -

King Farouk orders a series of lightning raids across Cairo and Alexandria, ending a destabilising period of speculation and uncertainty. Hundreds of suspected Islamic radicals are arrested, including prominent Hejazi exiles including several members of the Hashemite family.

At the same time, and under cover of secrecy, German Special Forces raid madrassas in the Sudan, capturing a number of radical clerics who are promoting the 'new' Mahdi. Operating beneath the law, the German commander interrogates his prisoners then ensures they are swiftly executed and buried in the sand. He reports his findings to the Ambassador who takes them to the king, at a sufficient remove for Farouk to claim, if necessary, that he did not know the specifics of the German actions

- - -

Chinese ships carrying Russian supplies put into ports in the Orissa region of India, South-West of Calcutta. Rail links have been developed by Russian engineers and the supplies are hurried shifted overland to new supply bases close to the Russian-Bengali frontline

Chinese engineers and geologists arrive in Russian Turkmenistan to inspect their new holdings in the oil industry.

In Moscow and Saint Petersburg, veteran generals from the 1920s begin to mutter about Tsar Vladimir selling Russian interests down the tube to pay for a wholly unnecessary war far from Russia's borders.

On his return to Moscow, Rokossovsky survives an assassination attempt by a paid hitman, who flees in a Volga automobile. Army units pull in hundreds of such vehicles in the next few hours, imprisoning dozens of men for interrogation, but the hitman is not found amongst their number. Certain non-military sources close to the Tsar suggest that perhaps the hitman WAS found but by sympathisers, or even co-conspirators, within the army but let go. Vladimir listens carefully and nods

- - -

In Berlin, naval officers around Head of the Admiralty, Prinz Waldemar, remark upon the convergence in the Bay of Bengal of Japanese and American aircraft carriers. The new plan agreed at the Special Conference is beginning to go ahead, with orders for 3 such vessels placed in German yards, 1 each in French, British and Austrian yards.

By August, the High Seas Fleet has taken possession of three of the new battleships; in addition to the Deutschland, these are the Kaiser Wilhelm III and the Adler.

Observing the pace of events in the Bay of Bengal, Berlin resolves to send out a force of its own. With 3 of the new battleships now with the fleet, it is agreed that one can be spared for distant service, and the Adler is fitted out as flagship for the South Asian Squadron. It is to be accompanied by the Seeadler, sister to the Peter Strasser and by the new fleet carrier Pfeil, plus three heavy and four light cruisers, and six of the newest, hardiest destroyers. Its initial destination is Karachi, via the Suez Canal, but eventually it is planned for it to proceed further East, to points yet unspecified

- - -

The US election campaign really heats up with the conventions of the three major parties, none of which is without drama

At the Socialist Party of America's convention, delegates overwhelmingly desert Thomas and vote in James P Cannon, ignoring the hatred in the media and gambling on the galvanisation that the new man has brought to the ranks of the working man across the US.

At the Republican National Convention, drama greets the Vice Presidential nomination. Borah refuses to stand down, whilst a majority of delegates refuse to accept Vandenberg's nomination of Landon, feeling that the Governor of Kansas is being foisted upon them, rather than their having the final say as per tradition. A groundswell of support develops to put Hoover on the ticket, and although the Secretary of State is reluctant to give up his important role in world affairs, he becomes convinced by arguments that the party interest is the national interest and his presence on the ticket is the best guarantee in the circumstances of re-election. To the stunned surprise of most of the nation's media, the Republicans end the convention with a Vandenberg-Hoover ticket

True to recent tradition, the Democratic National Convention is the most openly fractious. Appearing in public as the cripple he is, and casting aside all attempts to pretend otherwise, Roosevelt addresses the convention from his wheelchair, condemning the personal attacks, demanding that every American, regardless of his ability or disability be accepted as equal before the constitution, and shaming many of the delegates into recanting their attacks on his condition.

Henry S Breckinridge attempts to defuse this effect, again condemning "a nation that would elect a cripple" as "a cripple among nations". He never finishes his speech as he is booed off the stage, and jostled out of the room

Henry Wallace, the clear winner in the primaries, chooses to ignore both and to stress his message that America must stand for democracy where-ever it can be found, whether that is in Socialist Athens, or in Confederal Delhi. He focuses on foreign affairs and condemns the 'Imperial powers and their lustful appetites'. Believing he has the nomination sewn up, he finishes with a grandiose speech focused on the constitution and the Bill of Rights.

There is respectful applause...

But something is happening elsewhere in the convention, excited talk abounds and people rush to see. A black man has strode upon the stage, arm in arm with Robert La Follette, Jnr and followed by Eleanor Roosevelt. La Follette, whose Progressive ticket is already still-born announces that he is abandoning his campaign in order to support the 'one true American among us'. The black, XXX, makes a brief but impassioned speech for civil rights, then Eleanor Roosevelt speaks, long and calmly, extolling the virtues of her husband and the vision of a 'platform of respect, by all Americans, for all Americans"

By acclamation, Roosevelt is chosen as the Democratic candidate, but the stunning events of the day are not over as La Follette and Eleanor Roosevelt again address the delegates. Much to the astonishment of many, and their own lasting amazement, they nominate XXX as Vice Presidential candidate

The next day the most outspoken of the right-wing papers asks 'How have the Democrats nominated a cripple and a nigger for the highest offices of state ?'

But it has been done, and the stunned amazement across the nation trumps even the selection of Hoover as Vice Presidential nominee by the Republicans.

Trouble clearly lies ahead, as FDR in his acceptance speech talks of a registration drive in those states where un-American laws and illegal custom prevent the black man from freely exercising his rights as an American. Lawyers across the South protest that it is far too late to register new voters, but civil rights protests begin to gather a head of steam, and soon several of the braver national newspapers are running a campaign for 'Emergency Registration measures'

In Washington, Vandenberg and his cabinet meet to discuss how to react to this wholly unexpected development


Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

Fall 1940

With the monsoon season over, Russia launches a series of major operations in Bengal, their well-supplied and fresh forces easily over-powering the defensive positions of the Bengali frontline, and their amphibious units carrying many supplementary positions. Russian aircraft rain death down on the Bengalis, and paratroop drops secure positions in the rear. Within a week, the Russians stand at the gates of Dacca

At this crucial moment, Tsar Vladimir launches a crackdown on dissident voices at home, arresting the high profile supporters of many of the old generals, the latter being almost untouchable in themselves as national heroes. Evidence of a plot against him, perhaps a coup designed to overthrow the monarchy, comes to light, and he appoints Rokossovsky as commander of a Special Commission to ensure the loyalty of the armed forces

- - -

Islamic uprisings occur in Khartoum and several other Sudanese cities, and King Farouk is forced to deploy much of the first-rank army to deal with this. The bodies of some of the Islamic clerics begin to be dug up in the sands and portrayed as 'martyrs' whilst from the shadows, the 'new Mahdi' emerges to take control of the movement

German Special Forces assassinate him...

- - -

Tensions in the Bay of Bengal rise when Japanese warships, part of the Taiho's escort group intercept a pair of Chinese freighters, heading for Orissa independently of the main convoy that had sailed again from Shanghai. Acting on his own iniative, the Vice Admiral in charge of the carrier, Yamamoto, orders the ships boarded and inspected. They are found to be carrying vats of a highly toxic new nerve gas (analogous to Sarin). As their crews rebel, they are shot down and Japanese marines take charge of the vessels, sailing them, on Yamamoto's orders, to Madras

As he prepares for the climactic assault upon Dacca, the Russian commander wonders where his promised miracle weapon has got to. . .

- - -

Ann orgy of violence against German interests erupts across the Sudan and Upper Egypt in the wake of the assassination of the 'new Mahdi'. The German Ambassador promises as much aid as Cairo requires, but King Farouk and his advisors are unsure whether acceptance would further complicate the situation

- - -

In Spain, Berlin's increased willingness to commit in force to overseas problems sees Rommel's forces reinforced by several hundred of the new Tiger III tanks, and the first of Halberstadt's new jet-propelled fighter-bombers. In addition, at Berlin's request, King Jean III has sent additional French elite units to the front, whilst King Juan sends up the bulk of his Army of Africa, the Socialist threat now completely suppressed in Spanish Moroccan holdings

The Autumn offensive sees the Spanish Socialists eventually rooted out of Valladolid, and in short order their lines split in two as the German armour drives for the coast.

Despite Socialist attempts to maintain unity, late October sees the Basque nationalist leaders request an armistice with King Juan and disarm their Socialist co-belligerents. King Juan accepts, and talks open in Bilbao aimed at the Basque region getting the same autonomous deal as the FSR did for Bearn in France

Spanish Socialist resistance is now focused upon the Asturias and Galicia, but the government in La Corunna is effectively bankrupt as its infrastructure collapses around it.

In Washington, Vandenberg's administration agrees to extend further credit, despite the very real probability that they will never see it repaid. The Spanish Socialists order tanks, artillery and ammunition in bulk from US and Canadian sources

- - -

This is one of three crises developing for American interests as the presidential elections approach. The domestic crisis continues with the 'Emergency Registration' campaign being escalated to the Supreme Court, whilst white-black violence spreads across the South, and the Imperial Wizard of the Ku Klux Klan gains national prominence in interviews with far-right newspapers

The issue is clearly polarising America, but to whose advantage is not clear. Opinion polls show wildly divergent results, and mass Socialist ralleys begin to create alarm in Republican circles that the threat from THAT party has been under-estimated

Early November, Vandenberg sends Vice Presidential nominee, Secretary of State Herbert Hoover to London

This addresses the third crisis which is engulfing the USA at a moment when it is unable to give proper attention to it. The two Chinese freighters, escorted with prize crews into Madras by Japanese cruisers, create an international sensation

Initial Chinese protests at Japan's actions switch quickly to denials of knowledge as to what the cargo was, and tacit acceptance of Japan having been, albeit accidentally, in the right. Peking carries out a deep investigation into who knew what, that inevitably gets bogged down and makes everybody think 'cover-up' when in reality Moscow's nefarious double-dealing has hidden the trail well

The Russian commander in Bengal, hesitating ten days as he waited for his miracle weapon, eventually launched his attack on Dacca but his vacilation has given the Bengalis time to prop up their defences, and the attack founders, gets bogged down and degenerates into static fighting

Meanwhile, Admiral Kimmel has confirmed both the contents of the Chinese freighters' holds and the genuineness of their manifest. Tests upon animals in Madras, creating a riot when some cows are used, confirm that the nerve gas is more potent than anything used, even by Britain, in preceding conflicts

Arriving in London, Hoover meets with King Edward VIII and his Advisory Council. Events in Bengal are on the edge of spiralling out of control, and the USA needs a significant breakthrough for its own interests, both national and strategic as much as party political for the incumbent Republican administration.

Hoover and the British agree a joint position - that if Russia's current offensive breaks down and the Bengali Independence Government looks like surviving into 1941 as a viable state, then Britain and the USA will not only fully back German and Japanese calls for an international conference, but in the interests of coercing the Indians and Russians will threaten to recognise the Bengalis as the democratic and legitimate government of an independent republic.

Hoover returns to Washington, the agreement going a long way to address US strategic concerns but useless on the domestic front as it cannot be announced in the immediate term and the presidential election is now almost imminent

The US Supreme Court delivers a confusing verdict upon its eve. It agrees that registration so late in the day is impractical and impossible, but holds several, but not all, Southern states to be in violation of the constitution with their 'Jim Crowe' laws.

Civil rights marches continue but are now openly met with Ku Klux Klan counter-demonstrations, the latter emboldened by the knowledge that although discrimination against blacks has been found to be illegal, in the coming election nothing can be done about it. Democratic organisations present their privately-funded 'Emergency Registrations' to state capitals and court houses, but governors of several states call out the National Guard and disperse them

With deaths multiplying and violence spreading across the South, President Vandenberg is forced to agree to National Guard deployment in several states on polling day.


Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

Of course, there is no chap called XXX ! I just couldn't think who I meant, and whether who I meant was old enough or important enough

So, find me a black running mate for FDR !

And who wins this election ?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

This is the chap I was wondering about

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Robeson

One could postulate an ATL career for him that makes him just as, or even more, prominent

It is only 1940 though

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[traveller76]

Foreign Entanglements

I think if the UK and US recognize Bengali independence then India/Russia will figure it costs too much and give up. India will divide between Nehru/Gandhi politically. Russia may warm up with China/India and form some sort of Eastern Alliance versus the German/Japanese Bloc. Germany may grow tired of India and move more troops from Spain to Egypt and clamp down hard. The US may suffer the turmoil of the OTL 60's twenty years earlier.

 

[Grey Wolf]

I think if the UK and US recognize Bengali independence then India/Russia will figure it costs too much and give up. India will divide between Nehru/Gandhi politically. Russia may warm up with China/India and form some sort of Eastern Alliance versus the German/Japanese Bloc. Germany may grow tired of India and move more troops from Spain to Egypt and clamp down hard. The US may suffer the turmoil of the OTL 60's twenty years earlier.

Thanks for the reply! Interesting...

I see your point about Gandhi and Nehru coming to lead post-independence rival political parties, something my brain omitted to think of ! What about Jinnah in this ? His Muslim affiliation is going to be pretty screwed with Baluchistan/Kalat, Hyderabad and East Bengal all independent. His core territories would be in Lahore, where he supported the anti-independence drive so would not necessarily be popular... Maybe he will quit politics, move abroad or lead just a rump ?

Germany can't really deploy major forces (as opposed to Special Forces) in Egypt without Farouk or his Prime Minister inviting them in, so am not sure how things will pan out there

Any ideas on the US election ? And yes, I didn't see why the civil rights violence should be 'rooted' to the 1960s rather than turn out to be flexible in time

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[Nicomacheus]

Whoa, there! I like the spirit of the Democratic convention and I like James Cannon as newfound leader of the Socialists, but...Holy Electoral Suicide, Batman!

In all serious, it's the Black Vice-Presidential candidate we need to work on first. I don't really think it's possible for Paul Robeson to be the kind of candidate to break the barrier: for one, I think it'd be hard for him to have a better carreer sooner, since he was an actor and ony 42 in 1940.

I'd go for this guy: Walter Francis White. For one, by virtue of both his name and his appearance, he doesn't look black. However, he considered himself black. Furthermore, he was the Executive Secretary of the NAACP. About this time OTL he began to argue with WEB duBois about the correct trajectory of that organization, with the latter becoming increasingly radical.

So, this is the guy who Eleanor trots out on stage. Now we come to the next problem: who makes up the Democrats most loyal consituency in 1940? The South. Now, you've outflanked some of this criticism by saying that Henry Wallace did well in the primaries, which suggests the South was oddly mute about a more pro-civil rights approach. At the very least, racist southerners will walk out and form their own party to protest.

Next, the challenge to Jim Crow (no 'e'). Firstly, the Jim Crow laws were much more pervasive than voting restrictions. Secondly, the challenge to the voter registration laws won't have much room to affect the wider system of legalized segregation. More in a minute.

 

[Nicomacheus]

I've been doing some checking and the composition of the Supreme Court gets pretty dicey with the Daniels Presidency altering the order of Republican and Democratic presidents and with the difference in US politics. It's not out of the question, I think, that the Court would strike down a voter registration law in the manner you suggest. However, I would probably say they rule such laws unconstitutional on the basis of the 15th Amendment, but they leave enforcement to the states, hence creating the chaotic "Emergency Registration" programs you describe.

On to election forecasting: on the fact of it, I don't see how Vandenberg can lose. But I've made some assumptions: the Socialists are a new force in American politics. They need to build a machine before they can be a major party and just winning Congressional seats isn't enough; they also need to have taken several major governorships and control of a couple state legislatures. A real win for them might be if Al Smith were to join, though he's off in the Philipines. It might be interesting seeing Vandenberg's reaction, though. Hence, I'd rank the Socialists as a spoiler primarily in Industrial areas of the Northeast and Midwest. A key factor is the respective Socialists and Democratic platforms on immigrant issues; the Democrats might have a leg up here, but the Socialists can be many things. It's not really worth speculating, because I have a hard time seeing how Vandeberg doesn't win most of these states -- and win in surprising places do to the split.

The South is more interesting: the Democrats have committed some kind of electoral suicide by coming out in favor of black civil rights. To compensate, the Democratic plaform will have to cater to Southern economic interests: luckily there's a huge need for internal improvements in the South without the New Deal. There's also the agricultural angle of farm subsidies and the like that hasn't been fully exploited. But who are the Democrats competing against. Certainly there's an insurgent pro-white party of some kind. The Republicans are on the ballot but have very little pull -- but then again the Democrats have just abrogated any claim on the Solid South. The Socialists may be able to jump in the game, but they'll either have to out play the Democrats at the economic game or compromise on civil rights. They might do well if they have something of a Christian Socialist flavor to them. If the Socialists aren't in the picture, the Democrats might be able to keep the South, but only by winning a plurality of something like 35% with the rest split between other groups.

I can't see any reason for Vandenberg not to sweep the West. A Democratic agragrian platform may be popular, but farmers tend to be racists. This may lead to support for the Socialists, but the split ensures that even if it's close, Vandenberg wins.

Honestly, I'd imagine there's a fair chance that the Democrats schism again, with the "Southern insurgent" candidate running as a Democrat, taking a fair amount of the Democratic machine with him. The Rump Democrat Party of FDR may have a better chance attempting to ally with the Socialists, but the two may have very different views on foreign policy.

Overall, the two variables are 1) the precise nature of the Socialist Party and 2) the extent of Democratic schism. In my opinion, neither effects the botoom-line result--Vandenberg by a mile in the electoral college--but they may have important effects on later politics. Personally, I think it'd be interesting if the Socialist Party takes on a Christian Socialist feel -- it could play pretty well in the South and the Midwest in the long run. However, the Republicans should be "the natural party of government" for some time, I'd think.

 

[Grey Wolf]

Thank you very much for your detailed analysis !

I will read it carefully and use it to help guide me. I might not write much tonight as I have a test in my computer course tomorrow and have to remember to revise the joys of the Data Protection Act !

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[Nicomacheus]

Thank you very much for your detailed analysis !

I will read it carefully and use it to help guide me. I might not write much tonight as I have a test in my computer course tomorrow and have to remember to revise the joys of the Data Protection Act !

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

No Probelm: I'm just hopping you keep going with the TL -- a very interesting world you have here.

Let me know if you want more detail on a potential alt-SCOTUS (huge potential for butterflies here, btw).

 

[Nicomacheus]

Thanks for the reply! Interesting...

I see your point about Gandhi and Nehru coming to lead post-independence rival political parties, something my brain omitted to think of ! What about Jinnah in this ? His Muslim affiliation is going to be pretty screwed with Baluchistan/Kalat, Hyderabad and East Bengal all independent. His core territories would be in Lahore, where he supported the anti-independence drive so would not necessarily be popular... Maybe he will quit politics, move abroad or lead just a rump ?

It seems to me that he'll have to do one of two things: if he opts to stick with a Muslim identification, then he's better off leading some sort of rump. The more interesting option, I think, is for him to join forces with Ghandi to oppose Nehru and argue for the importance of a Confederal and United India. There are bound to be Muslim-majority successor states, so the issue of Hindu vs. Muslim polities isn't as important, IMHO, as United vs. Balakanized India.

I'd also advocate something an almost tri-cameral parliament: one house by regional equality, one house by religions in some way, one house by population. You could probably join the first two, but having three might be kind of cool. You'd have an elected ceremonial president and a State Council composed of Cabinet officers (confirmed in some manner) and the leaders of each House. In my mind, something of less nature avoids the need to award guaranteed seats in the Lower House, which gets a little messy to my taste.

Also, a map of all this confusion would be a big help: my internal Indian geography is pretty poor.

Any ideas on the US election ? And yes, I didn't see why the civil rights violence should be 'rooted' to the 1960s rather than turn out to be flexible in time

I won't go into more detail than before on the election, but I did want to touch on the boader effects of Civil Rights. You're correct that the turmoil of the 60s is more related to the outbreak of the issue, but it also sits in a broader context: the ties built between veterans of WWII and Korea, the counter-culture which had its roots in the suburbanization of the 50s and the beatniks. Certainly, without as many suburbs, the US will be dealing with the issue in a very differently.

It is important, though, that we distinguish between overturning the voting restrictions and overturning segregation. OTL, it was segregation that was attacked first: Truman integrating the army and Brown v. Board. TTL has only touched on voting rights. Also, in all the political turmoil, there might be a way to make the Socialist Party a way to unite poor Southern whites and blacks on the grounds of economic interests. Essentially, this where LBJ's popularity came from OTL (before Vietnam blew it up). In the climate of the 1940s, I think the social aspects of segregation are likely to be left alone until blacks gain enough electoral power than they are undone legislatively. This means that rathe than having the Federal Courts delve into social aspects of equality, they've only served to uphold the prima facie meaning of the 15th (and 14th) Ammendments.*

Here is where the lack of a New Deal and a slightly different course for US politics in the 1920s is pretty telling. In essence, OTL the Court in the early 1930s was fairly conservative on the Federal Government's power to regulate and on labor rights. In TTL, Daniels comes in just in time to shift the balance of the court early on (probably with a fresh Chief Justice after Taft). This probably adds a Labor-Populist of some stripe to the already existing contingent of liberals (Brandeis and Stone and perhaps Cardozo). More importantly, there isn't an attempt to expand the scope of the Federal government in the New Deal, because the Navy Program is simply Federal spending. In essence, I'd expect this court to hit on the formula of policing voting rights heavily, while remaining largely silent on issues of social equality. This is much less likely to be perceived as "judicial activism" than OTL Civil Rights Movement.

Now all of this expects that the the outcome of the Court decision overturning voting discrimintation is upheld. This may be the question on which the health of the Republican party turns: I don't see a clear reason why Vandenberg doesn't uphold the situation, but whether his willing to take an action equivalent to Eisenhower sending troops to Little Rock is open to question. I'd expect it depends on the relative influence of Robert Taft and Thomas Dewey. Given the tilt of TTL's Republican Party, I'd imagine that Dewey may actually already be governor of NY on schedule in 1938: he may therefore weigh-in on the current situation. Taft is another matter: OTL he'd be in the Senate by now, but he may be Under-Sec State for Hoover as well.

___________________________________

* I put the 14th in parentheses beause unlike a decision like Brown v. Board, a voting rights case relies more on the 15th Amendment (no voting discrimination on the basis of race or previous servitude) than on the 14th (due process). Accordingly, there's more direct Constitutional text to support the necessary decisions.

 

[chris N]

Politically I think that FDR is damaged goods to begin with and I think that his selection of a black man in 1940 as his running mate might have doomed him to begin with. It is likely that Southern Democrats might have walked out of the convention in protest and nominated their own candidate like the Dixiecrats.

 

[Nicomacheus]

Politically I think that FDR is damaged goods to begin with and I think that his selection of a black man in 1940 as his running mate might have doomed him to begin with. It is likely that Southern Democrats might have walked out of the convention in protest and nominated their own candidate like the Dixiecrats.

I agree...up until you consider Henry Wallaces' performance in the primaries.

 

[Grey Wolf]

Eek...!

A couple of things to deal with before I attempt to post my more recent writings

Indian Politics

What I have assumed so far is that the Indian National Congress as a whole was recognised as the legitimate government of India by the peace treaty that made it independent (1937). Nehru as President of the INC is thus created President of India in an executive role.

India, thus envisaged, is a confederal state, with some areas under direct government rule (the ex-agency and crownlands of the Raj) which would probably go down the elected governor route, and other areas under princely rule. This India is by intention non-denominational, and this is the vision of Nehru.

The breakaway of Islamic areas confuses this vision - 1 Baluchistan-Kalat, which is a similar confederal state made up of direct controlled areas and princely states, of which Kalat is the most powerful, 2 Hyderabad, which is a monarchy under the Nizam, who had both the money and the connections to ensure his own independence, and potentially 3 (Eastern) Bengal as a republican state.

Jinnah managed to hold on to his reluctant acceptance of Islamic participation in a Confederal India by dint of seeing the alternative as being to see breakway states end up under foreign domination. In this vein, he supported the suppression of the separatists in Lahore and those in Bengal. However, with Bengal likely to get independence in some territorial form, Jinnah is damaged goods. More on this later

Gandhi on the other hand represents both the less authoritarian approach to rule (ie as vested in Nehru as chief executive) and a Hindu religious approach. This latter is gaining currency as the Muslim areas breakaway, and he is able indeed to play up this sequence of events as demonstrating the essential Hindu nature of what is left of the Confederation

I have envisaged the INC at this point as being in effect something like the Communist Party in that elections are from local members to a national executive.

What happens in the posts I have yet to make builds on this - the loss of Bengal boosts Gandhi over Nehru, and he is able to use both his own supporters and disillusioned centralists to displace Nehru first within the INC, and then by extension in the government

Nehru then takes his rump supporters out of the INC and creates a second major political party. His call will now be for elections etc

Jinnah initially withdraws from politics, abandoning the INC as incompatible with his beliefs. After Nehru's overthrow and the split in the INC, Jinnah can see Nehru's electoral vision as the only way to secure Muslim rights in what otherwise threatens to be a Hindu state. As well as substantial Muslim minorities in certain areas, there are also Muslim princely states with Hindu populations whose interests need to be upheld.


Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

US Politics

The Democrats have come to regard the threat to their base voter from the Socialist Party as the over-riding problem facing them, hence the move towards policies to try to widen their appeal to the common man, and also going after constituencies which are largely untapped. The virtual merger of the Roosevelt wing of the democrats with the stuttering remnants of La Folette's Progressive Party is one sign of this, whilst the adoption of the policies of the ACLU (NAACP ?) another.

I would certainly imagine that FDR's renomination has had negative effects in many Democratic circles. I'm not sure, but if we want an anti-ACLU/NAACP Democrat to stand on a separate platform, how does Breckinridge rate on this ?

The Socialists will be battling to retain their new influence in areas of the country and sections of the populace that voted for them in 1938. In this, their main rivals would be the Democrats who would be trying to tempt traditional Democratic voters back to the party.

Given all this, I could certainly see that the Republicans are going to be seen not only as a party with a strong international programme, but as the party which is the least divided, or divisive, within the USA itself.

Winning the election, however, will be only the beginning. The forces unleashed, in part by the 1936 Democratic meltdown, in part by the 1938 Socialist advances, and now built on by the machinations of both those parties in the presidential election campaign, cannot be put back in the bottle.

If we go with White (how incongruous a name is that !) as the 'black' guy in the previous sections, then we have the ACLU (NAACP ? What are these acronyms ?!**) in bed with the FDR/Progressive wing of the Democratic Party. This could then bring forward more blacks into the national arena, and thus open the door for Robeson


**As always I'm writing this at home, away from any additional research sources. I had in mind ACLU as American Civil Liberties Union, but I see Nicomacheus' post (on my saved copy of the webpage) says NAACP - is this a former name for them, but if so what on Earth are the initials for ? National Ass something ? I could look this up when come online to post this, but that is getting very circular...

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[WCDouglas]

**As always I'm writing this at home, away from any additional research sources. I had in mind ACLU as American Civil Liberties Union, but I see Nicomacheus' post (on my saved copy of the webpage) says NAACP - is this a former name for them, but if so what on Earth are the initials for ? National Ass something ? I could look this up when come online to post this, but that is getting very circular...

National Association for the Advancement of Colored People (NAACP), an yes they'd be the main Civil Rights group outside the parties.

As for the ACLU, unless your TL as butterflied them considerable in 1940, they would be fully in the Socialist Camp, and the left wing of it at that. ACLU pre-WWII OTL is not the ACLU of 1950-80.

 

[Grey Wolf]

National Association for the Advancement of Colored People (NAACP), an yes they'd be the main Civil Rights group outside the parties.

As for the ACLU, unless your TL as butterflied them considerable in 1940, they would be fully in the Socialist Camp, and the left wing of it at that. ACLU pre-WWII OTL is not the ACLU of 1950-80.

Ah right, thank you !

Ah, so is this White chap calling himself 'coloured' rather than calling himself 'black' ? How confusing he has the name he has !

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[Nicomacheus]

Ah right, thank you !

Ah, so is this White chap calling himself 'coloured' rather than calling himself 'black' ? How confusing he has the name he has !

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

Sorry for the confusion about the terms. ACLU, btw, is the American Civil Liberties Union. WC is quite right about the NAACP (National Association for the Advancement of Colored People). Colored was the preferred term (in a somewhat similar vein to African American vs. Black today) in the early 20th Century. White is Black the same way Obama is white, I beleive. However, based on the "one drop" approach, that's enough for White to be seen as black to hardcore Southerners.

All of this makes White's name part of the fun.

Also, I'm not sure if the Democrats can simply absorb the NAACP: they can absorb the policies, but the two are quite different, the former a political party the latter an interest group. However, the Democrats could decide that their most solid appeal is to adopt a policy of full civil rights, hoping to win votes of those they will enfranchise.