Dude. You’ve made your point. You’re not wrong, but we need to move on from this topic or someone is going to get a kick/ban, and I’d really prefer it wasn’t you.
A Sound of Thunder: The Rise of the Soviet Superbooster
- Thread starter nixonshead
- Start date
I wonder how long Groza will be flying... "N1-77L launches with Mars-Grunt 4, August 2008."
Ry01tank
Banned
Considering post Soviet low budget for any new designs until the mid 2010's, its likely N1 will still be flying, with modern updates and the usual moderization we saw with Soyuz and proton
Thanks, it was fun to do, and nice to step out of the main narrative every so often.
Star Trek: The Next Phase has not been fully worked out, it's just TNG, but ITTL. The one I'm tempted to flesh out in the future is Paul Verhoeven's I, Robot, which I expect to have a significantly larger body-count that the OTL Will Smith movie
In Boldly Going, the Kepler capsules were done in very close cooperation with NASA, and complemented their needs (station lifeboat and moon capsule) as well as meeting the European desire for a sovereign crewed launch capability. In A Sound of Thunder, the dynamic is almost the exact opposite, with a lack of cooperation with NASA being a big driving factor. This includes the turn to Japan, with their HTV and lab module, which could come in useful if (as IOTL) Herme's designed payload mass starts turning negative.
That's a topic for Part 3
Part 2 Post 8: Return to Flight
Post 8: Return to Flight
“A ship in harbor is safe, but that is not what ships are built for.”
- John A. Shedd, 1923
++++++++++++++++++++
The Challenger accident led to a reorganisation of the American space programme, but no major change of direction. The reduction of the shuttle fleet from five to four orbiters, as well as the year-long hiatus in crewed launches while mitigation actions were taken to prevent a recurrence, was the final nail in the coffin of the shuttle’s commercial ambitions. The demands of the Skylab, Freedom, and DoD commitments meant that there was simply no room in the manifest for commercial users. A Presidential directive in October 1986 finally made it official, directing that NASA sign no more commercial launch contracts with industry. In future, US commercial launch needs would be met by privately operated (though still heavily subsidised) Atlas, Delta and Titan rockets.
The first Space Transportation System mission following the return of Enterprise was a Shuttle-C launch out of Vandenberg in February 1987. This mission carried a classified military payload (widely, and correctly, assumed to be a large aperture optical telescope), and was designated STS-26C (STS-25 having been skipped, acting as a placeholder in the mission sequence for the STS-500 rescue mission). With the agreement of the DoD, NASA used this mission to test a number of modifications to the configuration of insulating foam on the shuttle External Tank, with the aim of reducing foam loss at launch. Although not perfect, these modifications showed a marked improvement over the pre-Challenger baseline, and were quickly approved for use on crewed shuttle flights, with additional modifications to the ET foam placement made based on observations of the STS-26C launch.
Five months later, in July 1987, the shuttle orbiter fleet returned to space with STS-27. Despite it being almost a year since the launch of the STS-500 rescue mission, this return to crewed flights came sooner than many at NASA were comfortable with, but was driven by a need to return to Skylab and secure the station. Although Skylab-B was designed to operate autonomously for at least a year between shuttle visits, its use as an emergency shelter had seen several unusual deviations from its standard configuration, as well as depleting on-board consumables. There were also belated concerns that some of the experiment racks transferred from Challenger to the Skylab Node could create a hazard if left unattended for too long. This led to pressure from the leadership to revisit the station as soon as possible to avoid the risk of this unique orbital asset being lost.
The STS-27 mission saw Discovery and her crew of five resupply and secure the station, and also tested a number of new safety innovations, such as an extension to the RMS robotic arm that would in future allow tiles to be inspected and repaired without the need for risky untethered space walks. On Skylab itself, Discovery’s crew retrieved many of the experiments that the crew of Challenger had relocated from their Spacelab module to the station. They also transferred more than three tonnes of supplies to the station, mostly consisting of propellant for the orbital manoeuvring system, but also atmospheric gasses, food and water. This was intended to both replenish those consumables used during the crisis, and to build up a more robust stockpile should Skylab be needed as a safe haven again. By the end of their three-week mission, the space station was in good shape and ready for the expanded expeditions that NASA had planned for the future.
A key part of those future missions was to transition Skylab from a place that could be periodically visited into a permanent home in space, as Zarya-3 was for the Soviets. With the limits imposed by the shuttle’s reflight rates and on-orbit endurance, that would mean leaving a crew aboard Skylab for periods when there would be no orbiter docked to the station. The solution was to provide a lifeboat, or Assured Crew Return Vehicle, that could bring the station’s crew home in an emergency, and the Freedom return vehicle capsule under development for NASA’s lunar missions would be a perfect fit.
The space shuttle Atlantis lifted off on mission STS-28 in late October 1987, carrying Freedom capsule RV-102 in its payload bay. The stumpy cone-shaped ship, looking like a smaller copy of an Apollo command module, was actually the second Freedom capsule to enter space. It’s sister ship, RV-101, had made an uncrewed launch into a highly elliptical orbit by a Titan 3E booster in March 1986 to validate the thermal protection system when making a re-entry at lunar-like speeds. That test had been a success, and RV-102 was to have been carried to Skylab in the fall of 1986, before the Challenger incident introduced a delay. Now Atlantis would complete that mission, using its RMS arm to dock the five-tonne capsule at the earth-facing port of Skylab’s Power and Docking Node.
After completing their regular scientific mission, the crew of Atlantis departed in mid-November, leaving RV-102 behind at the station. The capsule remained in place throughout the STS-29/Columbia mission in February 1988, finally undocking under ground command the following April. The capsule then returned to Earth under automatic control, splashing down off the coast of Florida after six months in space, simulating the expected standard duration that lifeboats would be left aboard the station.
The RV-102 mission cleared the way for long duration Skylab expeditions to start in 1989, but also contributed to the advancement of the Freedom programme. Although President Reagan’s ambition to see Americans return to the Moon during his term of office was no longer feasible, the programme was making steady progress, with testing of the uncrewed Earth departure and lunar landing stages planned on a Shuttle-C mission in late 1989. This would be followed by crewed orbital test flights of the surface logistics and return vehicles starting in 1990. If all went to plan, 1991 would see the return of American boots to the Moon.
As NASA’s shuttle was returning to normal operations, its Soviet equivalent was also making steady progress. The 2K1 Urugan/Slava mission of February 1987 was followed in August by mission 1K2, and the first crewed launch of the N1-OK/Baikal system. This mission used the second orbiter, vehicle 1.02, now named “Tsiklon” (Cyclone), and was piloted by cosmonauts Igor Volk and Magomed Tolboyev. The mission saw Volk and Toboyev orbit the Earth sixty times as they tested the orbiter’s systems, including the deployment of a geophysics satellite. Despite some speculation in the Western media that Tsiklon would dock with Zarya-3, the shuttle stayed well clear of the station during its four days on orbit. Official press releases from the Soviets indicated that the shuttle was not yet equipped with the necessary docking apparatus for a mission to Zarya. In actual fact, the issue was that Tsiklon was simply too big to approach the nuclear-powered station and remain within the reactor’s cone of safety. Docking at the station would leave Tsiklon’s tail exposed to an elevated level of radiation, and there were concerns that this could affect electronic equipment in the aft section, or even scatter radiation in unexpected ways that could harm the crew. For this reason, Volk and Tolboyev returned to Earth without visiting their comrades in Zarya, bringing the spaceplane down on the runway at Baikonur to the applause of the Soviet press.
The celebrations of the successful mission masked the fact that the decision to fly cosmonauts on only the third launch of the Soviet shuttle had been a controversial one. The original test plan had called for at least four uncrewed launches before putting cosmonauts on the pad, but Mishin over-rode the concerns of his deputies to approve the mission. The Soviet economy was straining under the burden of its enormous military budget, as well as the dislocations brought by Gorbachev’s reforms, and Mishin was feeling the pinch. Not only did he have the Baikal shuttle and the lunar exploration programmes to advance, he had also been tasked with yet another “national priority” mission to prepare some sort - any sort - of response to Reagan’s “Battlestar America” missile defence programme. Problems with scaling up the production of N1 rockets meant that only three or four of the giant rockets could be made ready each year, leaving all of these political priorities competing for rides on a limited number of launchers. Sticking to the original plan under these conditions would have meant no crewed shuttle missions until the 1990s, while the Americans would be launching shuttles every two or three months and making twice-yearly lunar landings. Mishin’s political standing depended on him delivering propaganda spectaculars. If he didn’t deliver, then Glushko surely would.
With the crewed flight of the orbiter Uragan on a week-long bioscience mission in December 1987, Mishin was ready to declare the Baikal shuttle system operational and switch focus back to the moon. It had been three years since the last Soviet (and French) boots had touched lunar soil. With the upgraded N1-OK launcher performing well, it was finally time to take Barmin’s lunar habitat out of storage and establish the first permanent outpost on the Moon.
The first part of this base complex, the Power and Habitat Module, or EZA, had been ready at the Baikonur cosmodrome since late 1986, but it was only in March 1988 that the N1-38L carrier was rolled out to pad 37 with the EZA at its tip. The rocket’s twin, N1-39L, was already at pad 38 with the GB-1bis upper stage that was needed to push the lunar base on its descent towards the Sinus Iridium. The two rockets lifted off two weeks apart in April 1988, with both the habitat and the descent booster being delivered to their correct lunar orbit. The EZA then performed a delicate automatic rendezvous with the upper stage, the first such attempt without having cosmonauts able to take over in an emergency. Fortunately, the simple, reliable Kontakt system proved its worth once more, and docking proceeded without a hitch. Shortly afterwards the stack blasted itself out of lunar orbit on a trajectory to the Bay of Rainbows. Discarding the spent GB-1b stage, the EZA stage touched down on Friday 29th April 1988. Radio Moscow announced the landing to the world, declaring the foundation of “Lunnyy Gorodok”, or “Moon Town”, and announcing that cosmonauts would be visiting the base “in the coming months”.
Other events would soon change these plans.
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Well at least the USSR falls apart with its space program having accomplished more, and leaving the Russians more to work with afterwards. I wonder if Baikal ever flies again.
Awesome render of Skylab and Freedom. Is this is the end of Part 2, or will there be another interlude?
Awesome render of Skylab and Freedom. Is this is the end of Part 2, or will there be another interlude?
Oh, awesome update! Much moreso then OTL, the Soviet space program is roaring- although America is slowly catching up. With these circumstances, I suspect the contrast between the triumphant Soviet space program of the 1980s and the destitution of the Russian` space program will be even more drastic then OTL.
The last line is quite ominous for the future of Lunnyy Gorodok. Given how cash-strapped the future Russian space program will undoubtly become, I wonder if a certain other country with active plans for a return to moon might be interested in utilizing the already-launched first module in exchange for some much needed hard cash...
Ry01tank
Banned
Ya, MIR was barely able to be funded, not even able to get routine operations type funding, Shuttle basically saved the station (mostly for US not wanting Russian engineers to find work in Iran, Iraq and China and North Korea and any regime that is a threat
I can only imagine the wierdness of having Russia launch lunar missions funded by the US, or worse, the base being occupied by astronauts and Cosmonauts launched on an american rocket
I am thinking the same as you, americans using the Soviet base would be hilarious, only moreso if the american base is beside it basically making the first international moon base
Oh wow, this update blew me away! Anyway, here are some (well, maybe a lot) of my questions surrounding it.
And the last one, when/where Moon Town render? The Skylab-B's looks terrific, I can't wait to see Lunyy Gorodok on the Moon!
With o-rings and better insulation foam, is there really any other big problem that could endanger the rest of the shuttle fleet? I mean, there is always a lot of things that could go wrong, but was there any other major hazard for space shuttle IOTL?
How will americans execute the Freedom program? Will it be firstly just short visits on the surface and then right away the Freedom base? And will they be sending any probes to map the surface, or will they be alright with the Apollo maps? Y'know, they might find some lunar water ice and that could change their plan about where to land the base...
What were the reasons to land the base there?
And the last one, when/where Moon Town render? The Skylab-B's looks terrific, I can't wait to see Lunyy Gorodok on the Moon!
Garrison
Donor
If you want an I Robot themed story with murder and a detective I suggest checking out the Caves of Steel and The Robots of Dawn. Part of the same continuity and a far better fit.Thanks, it was fun to do, and nice to step out of the main narrative every so often.
Star Trek: The Next Phase has not been fully worked out, it's just TNG, but ITTL. The one I'm tempted to flesh out in the future is Paul Verhoeven's I, Robot, which I expect to have a significantly larger body-count that the OTL Will Smith movie
Sounds like 1989 is going to be a poor year for the Soviet Space programme if I read the last part right, can't say it's surprising given how much stress that economy is under by that point.
Not gonna look good if my prediction is correct. Having the beginnings of a permanent Manned Lunar Outpost, but no means (financial mainly) to build it up, or even send anyone there.
US funding to allow its use is a scenario I can believe, unofficially to keep those former Soviet Engineers from providing their services to less-than-friendly clients.
Not gonna look good if my prediction is correct. Having the beginnings of a permanent Manned Lunar Outpost, but no means (financial mainly) to build it up, or even send anyone there.
US funding to allow its use is a scenario I can believe, unofficially to keep those former Soviet Engineers from providing their services to less-than-friendly clients.
I'd love to see close up of that Freedom capsule Model.
I really hope the fall of the USSR can result in an international lunar base, but given how complicated the ISS negociations already were IRL I, I'm not confident it will happen, although the technical side of integrating both bases should be easier, since they don't have to be docked together unlike a space station.
I really hope the fall of the USSR can result in an international lunar base, but given how complicated the ISS negociations already were IRL I, I'm not confident it will happen, although the technical side of integrating both bases should be easier, since they don't have to be docked together unlike a space station.
Ry01tank
Banned
Tech stuff can be figured out, for a base having both connected would be a bitch, but having the modules in proximety to each other would be good
If Goldin stays i could see him convincing Clinton to internationalize the program, OTL Goldin was the only Administrator kept by the opposing party (Goldin was a republican). Tom Staffords book goes into a bunch of stuff (Apollo 10 landing with LM-5 "just asking for trouble" in June), B-2 Bomber, and the Goldin and Clinton stuff and the following negotiations.
The russians wanted to keep MIR going, their proposal was for it to be internationalized with the ISS being built around MIR, their second was for the early ISS design to include MIR (bolt it on to the Russian end), and the final was the ISS we kinda got, with the pre Columbia and budget cuts modules
(I swear to god i read this somewhere)
N1 would likely remain as a viable launcher, it has a proven history and record, and the infrustructure to build, launch and operate it is there, Energia was still new and the Buran shuttles were mostly unfinished (plus the side boosters were made in Ukraine), so it was cut as it needed huge cost to finish)
I could see Proton being phased out in favor of N1
Likely post 2000 Russia could be able to operate their stuff more reliably (less internal turmoil), but ya, post 91 Russia will barely be able to run Zarya, and the Lunar base would be borderline impossible (unless Zarya is cut)
Nixon could butterfly the privatization to be like Czeck with a lottary system, OTL Russia sold businesses on the open market, creating the oligarchy overnight (East Germany had this too, but West Germans buying everything)
this could possibly result in Yeltsin not being able to consolidate power from the parliment, thus keeping democracy as a viable ruling method and not the authoritarian style we have post 93 with a kinda token parliment
Sorry, what? Also, I believe a Proton replacement already exists in the form of Vulkan.
Ry01tank
Banned
Vulkan was never mentioned ITTL, Glusko didn't get control of the beauru to cancel N1 in favor of Vulkan
I could be wrong but i am 99.99 percent sure that Vulkan ITTL doesn't exist besides on paper
And considering the timeline is at 87 with a imminent collapse of the USSR in 91 or possibly 89 and the associated budget issues even before that, i doubt Vulkan would be able to fly more then once before being cancelled in favor of the proven designs
Not the massive Energia based vehicle, the Vulkan mentioned here (talked about in Post 6: Hurricane) is a Proton replacement (or at least launcher for Slava/TKS) similar to Zenit.
But I'm still baffled as to how N1, an HLV that needs to be assembled at the launch site and carries 100 mt on two dozen engines, could in any way be a replacement for Proton.
Ry01tank
Banned
Sorry, ya i was wrong, that one mention in part 6 was like wtf, i totally glossed over it
I figured it was that huge beast otl design, a Zenit similar rocket is more reasonable, but those TKS rockets are expensive, needing a new Slava/TKS module for every launch will basically make the Russian space program broke, OTL FGB modules were borderline the same as TKS, it took Russia 20 years to launch Nauka to the ISS, i doubt they could afford a new FGB module on every flight
(unless i am living under a rock and the TKS modules are reusable and VA/Slava's dock to them in orbit)
N1 would definitely not be a good replacement for ITTL Vulkan, but i could see the Groza continuing production into the 2000's at minimum, mostly due to Russia not being able to afford a replacement and updating the design akin to Proton and Soyuz IOTL. Four a year would be a lot, and two per year would be a max, basically, the US of A would pump money into the Russian Space Program (for the same reason as OTL), and "fund" Groza launches to the moon, likely with an American aboard
And because i feel like Russia would really hate having its lunar base only using American rockets to get to
The Shuttle will definitely not last, it's too expensive to operate, especially on Groza with "throw-away" boosters. i can see a 3rd or 4th flight, but i will bet it won't get near 10,
as for the actual Baikal shuttles, i think the third might get complete, or the first two will be the only ones to fly and will be kinda like OTL with them being left in hangers or going into a museum
The N1 was assembled on its side and then moved by railroad to the launch site (one of the two), then basically cranked upright, nearly all soviet rockets were assembled this way, even Buran OTL, Energia, and Polyus was the same.