The Soviets are spending themselves dry far more so than OTL and have less opportunity to recoup loses from Europe with both France and Portugal being energy self-sufficient and Norway soon to start producing oil as well. China is not going to be able monopolize manufacturing to any great extent TTL. The Middle East would be dealing with more aggressive and less restrained opponents in both Israel and Europe so that might either force a lid on the saber rattling or even more instability.This is starting to look like a multipolar world with India far weakened the only countries that can influence the world significantly seems to be the USA, the soviets, communist china and the Portuguese and with the soviets lagging behind economically I think by the 2010 we will see a 3 way battle for influence between Lisbon, Beijing, and washington
There'll be a lot of interwining among the US, EU, the Federation along with their allies, Commonwealths/Community and IEC. There's always the chance that the Soviets might realize early on that they can't economically compete with the capitalists and focus inward but it's unlikely.
An unlikely scenario would if eventually a democratize Federation joined the EU, it and France's non-European territory might force the EU to expand past Europe opening the door for the British and Lusitanian Commonwealth. That hypothetical EU would be the sole Hyperpower and biggest trading block of the world.