Lusitania

Donor
What do citizens of the Federation call themselves? I'm sure it's Portuguese in the Iberian metropole but elsewhere?
The “Portuguese” adjective to describe a people has been one of the most crafted identities. When the Federation was announced in late 1940s and came into existence in 1950 the government was fighting several perceptions. One that this Federation thing was cosmetic and that in reality was Portugal trying to maintain its colonies. Secondly that people living in the country not feel they part of the country and feel excluded. Therefore the 1950s was known as the “what is Portuguese” decade where the meaning of the word changed and came to represent a different meaning by end of decade.

The government employed several government ministries to accomplish the task namely the Department of Education and department of Culture & sport . The task of indoctrination was done on two levels with the Ministry of Education spearheading a massive language program with every child over the age of 6 to 18 enrolled in school. It was massive where children were the first to receive new education and many new language. The curriculum was hurriedly adapted with stories of people from different parts of the Federation incorporated into the curriculum. All lessons were structured to signify everyone was in the same situation and moving towards the new Federation citizen. Education also was mandated to the adults 65 and under and voluntary for those over 65. It was a massive project that continued well into the end of the decade but left the country with a population that had basic Portuguese language skills (with kids acting as interpreters for some matters) but in end left its mark on the people. The minister of sport and culture had an even greater task ahead of him. In terms of youth the PY program was ramped up and jammed down everyone's through with cultural and sports being billed as great inclusive program to meld the mindset of the youth both preschoolers and school age into the thinking "Eu sou Português e tu és meu irmão." I am Portuguese and you are my brother.

Of course as part of the cultural program was the whole what does it mean to be Portuguese. Which as you can imagine had the most opposition from the traditional European Portuguese who viewed the incorporation of other groups into the fabric of what it meant to be Portuguese they were by far the minority already in the country and the number of non-Iberian Europeans was steadily rising every year. The government had experts and average People talking on radio and in newspapers commenting on how Portuguese culture was diverse with differences already existing between different regions and that incorporating new people added to the beauty of the culture and country. Then of course was the movies, radio and print media which spun the government message big time. Bigots and racists were portrayed as ignorant, traitors and willing to use their anger and view to hurt their families, neighbors and country. With communist and those wanting to destroy the country easily using these people to their advantage. The other tactic used was sports to unify the country. With all athletes portrayed as Portuguese.

What did this mean for how people viewed themselves, again it depended on the age and what group the people came from. The younger the person the more they identified as Portuguese. Of course what I had forgotten to mention was military service which incorporated every male including those not able to serve in combat roles. There were jobs for those in wheelchairs and other disabilities. It was the place all males came to bond with their brother and defend the motherland. Each playing their role based on their ability but none less than the other.

The program of course had its detractors and critics but for most part they kept those opinions to themselves as DGS/SIS viewed those who did not tow the government line as enemies of the state and could be subject to detention in one the country "re-education" camps.
 

Lusitania

Donor
I'm greatly anticipating a possible about shift in British and American politics as others start benefiting from the Federation's rising economy largely at their expense.
Yes there will a shift in both a British and American attitudes but for different reasons. Without revealing too much the Americans have two major issues to deal with the Federation: first deal with the Federation as a nuclear power and try to bring it into nuclear control agreement. Secondly, unfortunately the war against communism is South America will intensify and grow worse for US and it will need Federation as a bigger partner in the war against communism. As for the the British the economic repercussions of British-Federation economic split it would lead to greater pain and economic decline in UK than iotl and lead to the conservatives coming to power sooner and a detente and re-establishment of better economic ties but home was the post war economic alignment. More in future.
 
As for the the British the economic repercussions of British-Federation economic split it would lead to greater pain and economic decline in UK than iotl and lead to the conservatives coming to power sooner and a detente and re-establishment of better economic ties but home was the post war economic alignment.
Is the rest of Western Europe than generally better off than OTL economically? We know that Africa and South America are, so better Global Economy?
 
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Lusitania

Donor
Is the Federation investing in Hydro and Wind Powers as well? They and their allies are sitting on a great deal of bodies of water inland and large stretches of costs.
Hydro power is being exploited to its maximum with dams along all its river small, medium and large through out the federation many dams that iotl were only built 70, 80s and beyond or planned but never built have been built in the 50-60. To the point all feasible project are either built or being built by the end if the 1960s. The 1970s and 80s will be when the expanded commonwealth will join the federation in exploiting their hydro electronic power.

as for wind power in the 1960s there is some experimentation being carried out but like iotl nothing grand scale. The Portuguese have turned to thermal power fir their additional energy needs with coal and natural gas being the primary fuels.

As the 1960s came to a close 10 nuclear power plants were under construction in the federation.
 

Lusitania

Donor
Is the rest of Western Europe than generally better off than OTL economically? We know that Africa and South America are, so better Global Economy?
So Western Europe could be said to be better off. The Federation is seen as important market for Europeans and as such access to the Federation/Commonwealth market has come with major demands from the Federation to access to the EEC/European markets.

Sweden - economy is about 10% bigger due strong trade ties with the Federation, several large Swedish firms have substantial presence in the Federation and that will grow with the expansion of the commonwealth.

Germany - combined Germany (no west/east) they are actually about same size as both ITOL. Federation is a competitor of Germany in several areas such as steel production and vehicles. Strong German/Federation ties with millions of Germans/German descents in the Federation and strong economic links.

Italy - Economically is about 10% smaller as its footwear, clothing lines have been greatly affected by the Federation who compete very effective in the low to medium range in both price, quality and prestige. Italian high end brands still have competitive advantage but medium firms have suffered.

Britain - till late 1960s had an economy about 15-20% higher than iOTL but that all changed in 1967 onward with its economy loosing 1% in 1967, 2.4% in 1968 and a whopping 4.2 in 1969. So while Britain economy was affected by increased oil prices. The biggest factor in Britain's favor is it is part of EEC but like rest of Europe it is suffering from the large price increase by OPEC countries just as supplies from the Federation cannot be guaranteed.

France - this is the country with the biggest difference in both population and economy. With several provinces in Africa, including oil and gas resources its economy is much larger about 22%. The inclusion of its overseas provinces and territories are a point of friction with some of its EEC partners.

Rest of Western Europe - they are general equal to or slightly above IOTL.
 
1960 - Economy (Part 3)

Lusitania

Donor
1960 – 1969

Economy (Part 3)


Finance and Commerce

During the first half of 1960s inflation stayed between 5 – 8%. In 1965 wage pressures and depreciating of Portuguese escudo (caused by concerted effort of US federal reserve and other countries dumping Portuguese escudo) caused inflation to increase to 12%. During 1966 - 1968 inflation decreased again as escudo stabilized and wage pressure temporally eased as country became pre-occupied and involved in the African Wars. In 1969 the country faced two new monetary pressures. The country was flush with foreign currency as foreign investors flocked to Portuguese stocks and bonds as well as invested in actual property or setup business in the country then by the sudden increase in price of oil from 3.50 USD to 6.60 USD a barrel because of the OPEC Arab oil embargo against some western countries that supported Israel and Portuguese Federation.

Real wages in the Federation continued to rise with Portuguese corporations being forced to invest in their operations, train their workers in order to modernize and become more efficient or cease to exist. Portuguese companies struggled with some reactionary business owners attempting to resist and lobbying their trade associations, and government to “deal with the excessive worker demands”. Most of these firms did not last the decade as they were either bought out or closed. Demand for labor through the decade continued strong and unskilled labor continued to migrate from rural areas to the cities.

In 1965 the Portuguese government introduced Value Added Tax (IVA) on all goods and services although the amount varied. Ranging from 5 – 15% the IVA was applied to restaurant meals, all services and all goods. Based on the French model the introduction of IVA was offset by reduction in payroll taxes and increased in government support for poorer people. Groceries (food), children clothing and shoes as well as school supplies were excluded. By 1969 almost 40% of government revenue came from IVA.

From 1960 to 1969 the Portuguese Federation continued to suffer trade surplus and from 1966 onward a growing positive balance of payments as exports continued to grow and Portuguese trade protection made foreign goods more expensive and lowered the demand for them. Included in the development of decrease in imports was the growing quality of Portuguese goods as well as negative attitude towards purchasing goods from certain countries. Following the attempted coup of 1962 with USA’s CIA involvement, imports from US collapsed as Portuguese consumers organized a boycott of US goods. Following the election in 1966 of the British Labor party in Britain imports from Britain began decreasing as the more forward-thinking firms found other sources for their goods or in conjunction with the British firms began setting up Portuguese manufacturing plants, the trickle in 1966 became a flood in 1969 as firm’s dependent on Portuguese market moved to the Federation or sold their businesses to companies in the Portuguese Federation.

Portuguese government debt continued to grow during the decade as government borrowing for infrastructure spending continued high and by end of 1969 government debt was at 45% of GDP. In 1967 Marcello Caetano became the new Minister of Finance and he wanted to slow the rate of borrowing as well as institute a clear schedule of repayment for older debt. The government policy was to repay of government debt was between 20-25 years after debt was incurred. This plan was compounded by the government still owing a large amount of debt incurred in the 1930s and 1940s. A plan was put into place to repay all debt incurred prior to 1950 by 1975 and by 1985 to not owe any debt incurred prior to 1965.

During the 1960s the fixed exchange rate that had governed the world’s major currencies came under severe pressure. The 1960s Portuguese escudo exchange rate of 15$05 escudos per US dollar which had slowly over the last 20 years been appreciating making Portuguese export more expensive. It like the German Mark and Japanese Yen was viewed as undervalued due to strong economy, and trade surplus of the three countries. Attempts by the Americans to get the three countries to raise the value of their currency during the first part of the 1960s failed and all three countries resisting both US and OECD. While Germans and Japanese enjoying friendly relations with US government the Portuguese did not enjoy that privilege, so the US decided to single out the Portuguese and force it to appreciate it currency. Following the attempted coup relations between Portuguese and Americans were at its lowest point. The Portuguese continued to resist American pressure to appreciate the escudo then in 1965 there was a lot of movement of Portuguese Escudo held outside the country from March to May then on 25th of May a concerted effort organized by the US using several large international European and Asian banks first bought all the escudos available driving up the market price. The Portuguese Central Bank responded by releasing or making more escudos available attempting to stabilize the escudo, then on 1st of June they sold all the escudos driving the price down hoping to force the Portuguese government to spend all its foreign reserves to buy the escudo back but instead the government simply let the escudo drop causing major concern by other central banks as the escudo had dropped to 49$35 to US dollar in a span of two days. The IMF, British, French, German and other European central banks stepped in to buy the escudo as the sharp rise made exports to the Federation more expensive. Pressure on the US Central reserve and telephone calls from governments of Europe’s largest economies to the US government finally reigned in the escudo’s slide and it stabilized at 24$30. On 15th of June, the Portuguese finally reacted and converted all their USD reserves of 10 billion dollars on the open market to gold causing major problem for the US as their currency came under pressure itself. The Portuguese action was followed by other foreign banks and currency speculators. The actions had other major impacts to other currencies. The British and French currencies depreciated (both of whom were running deficits) although the British depreciation of 20% was the most drastic while both German Mark and Japanese Yen did appreciate by about 5-%10. All this shook-up confidence in the Bretton Woods system and in 1968 the American government announced the suspension of being able to convert USD to gold.

While all this turmoil was happening, there were several simultaneous inquiries both in the US and in Europe to investigate the ongoing crisis. Under questioning both bank employees and banking records failed to provide any evidence of collusion or government involvement and bank records were either incomplete or missing.[1] In 1966 at the IMF meeting in Bombay to set out regulations and agreements on the exchange rate between countries and establish ranges in which a currency could move before all major central banks would act in concerted effort to maintain a currency within the agreed range the various governments failed to agree and while the 1966 IMF memorandum talked about supporting currencies from market manipulation the lack of support by USA signaled the beginning of the end of the Bretton Woods system. From 1966 to 1969 the Portuguese escudo slowly rose in value and by end of decade had risen back to 15$01 to USD.

On 16 January 1966 VP Hubert Horatio Humphrey was sworn in as President of USA following President Johnson heart attack and hospitalization on 2 January 1966. On 15th of January, President Johnson was diagnosed with heart disease and resigned due to his inability to perform his Presidential functions. President Humphrey changed US government attitude towards Portuguese Federation from hostile to one of neutral.

In 1967 the London Gold Pool collapsed when France announced it was withdrawing from the pool.[2] The Portuguese who had not been invited or expressed any interest in participating in the pool when it was formed even though their gold reserves were greater than many of the European countries who participated. Throughout the 1960s the Portuguese gold reserves increased by 26%. Portuguese gold reserves had risen to be the 3rd largest in Europe right below Britain and France. The collapse of the London Gold reserve and depreciation of the Sterling led to the US suspending the ability of people from converting the USD to gold and the sharp rise in the value of gold. The Swiss responded by established the Swiss Gold Pool to facilitate the trading of about half of the gold trading in the world. Only the US and Portuguese Federation decided to establish their own gold trading system.

The monetary fluctuations in both the Portuguese escudo and other foreign currencies along with the banking industry ability to manipulate the currencies of the world made the Portuguese government more determined to increase the use of barter instead of currency as a percentage of total Portuguese trade. The Portuguese government identified South America as the ideal place to accomplish this. During the 1960s the Portuguese provided favorable terms to many countries namely (Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Uruguay, Venezuela and Central American countries) in which Portuguese manufactured goods and resources were bartered for goods and resources from the targeted countries. By 1969 over 70% of all trade between the affected countries and the Federation was being done through bartering. So successful was the Portuguese initiative that a bartering network was formed so that South American countries could easily barter between themselves. In 1969 barter trade was extended to include trade between the Lusitania Commonwealth and the South American nations.

In 1964 the Portuguese Securities Trading Act was amended to allow for creation of regional small cap stock markets while the three main Portuguese stock exchanges (Lisbon, Porto and Luanda) were united into a single united stock exchange with multiple physical markets called “Bolsa Portuguesa” (Portuguese Stock Exchange (PSE)). In 1966 both Lourenco Marques and Panjim were added as new trading floors to the PSE. As part of the updated Portuguese Securities Trading Act eight regional small cap stock exchanges were created throughout the country allowing for capitalization of many smaller companies that did not meet the minimum requirements of the PSE. Regional stock exchanges were created in Braga, Tetouan, Bissau, Benguela, Beira, Daman, Dili and Macau. These smaller exchanges as in the case of Braga, Bissau and Daman was also used by companies from neighboring countries to raise capital in the Portuguese market. As of 31 December 1969, the PSE had 2,501 companies listed on them and a market capitalization of 396 thousand million escudos.[3]

In 1968 the Lusitania Credit Agency Ltd corporation was formed to provide unbiassed credit rating to Portuguese and Lusitania Commonwealth corporations. In 1967 the Casa do Povo pension fund management was reorganized. Since the Casa do Povo pension reforms in the 1950s the pension fund had slowly been growing. At first the pension surplus sat in the accounts earning very little interest, in 1960 part of the funds were invested in higher interest rate investment accounts, then in 1963 the types of investments that fund could invest was expanded with the inclusion of government and good rated companies’ bonds and into mortgage-backed securities. In 1967 the Pension Fund management was amended to allow for investment in stock market and directly in the economy by the Pension fund buying outright or controlling shares in some of the country’s companies.

Portuguese retail continued to mature with national brands expanding through the country at times displacing regional or local firms. Firms like Grandes Armazens do Chiado, Armazéns Grandella, Marks & Spencer, and Marques Soares expanded their operations from Iberian Peninsula opening stores in most large to medium cities. From Brazil, the owner of Lojas Americanas opened the first Portuguese store called Lojas Portuguesas in Luanda in 1962 and by 1969 the company had expanded to almost every major city in the country. They were followed by other Brazilian companies such as Lojas Renner and Mesbla which also expanded into the Portuguese market. With the advent of the automobile and the growth of new suburbs the changes in grocery business also happened, in Luanda the large Portuguese conglomerate Jerónimo Martins took a page from the Americans and opened the countries first supermarkets called “Pingo Doce” which were 10 times larger than any grocery stores at that time in 1963. People flocked to the new supermarkets leading to opening of additional stores both in Luanda and eventually throughout the rest of country. Others took notice of Pingo Doce’s success and in 1965-1966 Sonae opened its first “Modelo Supermecado” in Luanda and Lisbon.



Urbanization and Construction

While Portuguese cities grew outward the skyline was devoid any building over 20 stories during the 1940s and 1950s. In 1960 the Portuguese business character changed and began asserting itself and also wanting to show off its strength and power. In Lisbon, the financial capital of the country the country largest banks competed for prestige and office towers of 30 to 50 floors began being built in the capital with BPI tower (36 floors) being the first to be opened in 1964. The Caixa Geral de Depositos’ 45 stories tower opened in 1966 but the tallest tower was the Banco Espirito Santo tower at 69 stories opened in 1968. Meanwhile in Lunda the commercial and industrial capital of the country the SONAP tower at 100 stories rivalled all skyscrapers in the country when it opened to huge fanfare by King Duarte II on 30 June 1969.

Construction continued to employ millions of Portuguese as industrial, commercial, and residential construction continued strong with average growth of 4% a year. During the 1960s housing starts continued strong averaging over 200,000 a year.[4] While construction continued strong housing prices continued to rise faster than wages and by 1969 average housing prices had doubled from 1960 prices. This caused major problem as many people became priced out of the housing market and those living in large metropolitan areas resigned themselves to renting. The high demand for rental properties also made finding apartments difficult. Cities responded by imposing rental controls in an attempt to stopping landlords from increasing rents exuberantly. Demand for affordable housing continued and the government was forced to increase funding for the Affordable Housing projects and by 1969 42,000 subsidized housing units were being built a year.

GDP

In 1960 Portuguese Federation GDP reached 255,392 over the next 10 years Portuguese economy grew as follows:

Year
GDP(millions)
% change from previous year
1960
255,392
7.51
1961
278,913
9.21
1962
309,984
11.14
1963
338,751
9.28
1964
371,000
9.52
1965
411,105
10.81
1966
456,491
11.04
1967
477,033
4.5
1968
507,563
6.4
1969
572,683
12.82

In 1960 the Portuguese Federation compared against the leading world economies and other select countries as follows.[5]

  • Country
    Population
    (Millions)
    % Growth from 1950
    GDP
    (millions)
    % increase from 1950
    GDP Per capita
    Portuguese Federation
    46,185
    39%
    255,392
    162%
    5,529
    UK
    52,372
    4.5%
    525,949
    35%
    10,042
    France
    46,584
    11%
    344,609
    56%
    7,397
    USA
    180,671
    18%
    2,046,727
    40%
    8,058
    Spain[6]
    20,156
    -28%
    65,999
    7.5%
    3,274
    Netherlands
    11,486
    13%
    95,180
    57%
    8,286
    Italy
    50,198
    6.5%
    296,981
    80%
    5,916
    Brazil
    70,495
    31%
    177,285
    79%
    2,514
    South Africa
    16,942
    24%
    50,102
    45%
    2,957
    Argentina
    20,102
    19%
    156,242
    69%
    7,724



    [1] In 1965-66 many senior executives of the European and Asian banks involved in the Escudo attack died in car accidents, or from heart attacks. On the surface, the deaths by themselves did not raise any alarms but when journalists for the French and British newspapers published the full lists of the 50 bank executives who had died in a short period of time against the list banks who participated in the Escudo crises it became apparent that participating in future actions against the Portuguese Federation could result in death. The Portuguese government denied any involvement or knowledge of such deaths.
    [2] The London gold pool had been established on 1 November 1961 by a group of eight central banks; the United States and seven European countries that agreed to cooperate in maintaining the Bretton Woods System of fixed-rate convertible currencies and defending a gold price of US$35 per troy ounce by interventions in the London gold market.
    [3] Portuguese escudo to US dollar was 15$01 escudos and 396 thousand million escudos is 26 billion US dollars. For comparison purposes the London stock exchange had 3,360 companies listed on the exchange and market capitalization of 56 billion US dollars. Note Portuguese language did not use billion but wrote it a thousand million.
    [4] This included multi-family homes and single-family homes.
    [5] The data for the three colonial powers (UK, France and Netherlands) only reflected their European territory.
    [6] Spain data reflected the loss on heavy industrialized areas of Basque and Catalonia as well as Galicia.


    This concludes the economic section of the 1960s. Of special note is the collapse of the gold standard in the late 1960s as opposed to the early 1970s. While the Federation was a minnow compared to the USA, the manner in which its currency had been attacked and subsequent repercussions led to the early collapse of the gold standard and the fixed exchange rate as new American administration lacked the leadership and willingness to support it. In part because the Americans expenses in maintaining over 1 million troops fighting the communists in Americas and South East Asia that it felt maintaining the system to expensive. Questions/ Comments?

    Return in 2 weeks on July 4 when we post the Health & Education.



 

Lusitania

Donor
Great update! 👍
Nothing much to ask though as everything was mostly addressed in the chapter.
Thank you,

Economically the 1960s were transformative years as the country's economy both continued expanding in certain sectors such as transportation, mining but as important started moving towards higher value manufacturing with many of the lower cost manufacturers either having to improve productivity or transfer manufacturing to lower cost Commonwealth countries.

We cannot emphasize enough the disruption and economic impact the British-Portuguese split had on both countries. With Portuguese companies witnessing supply disruptions. Even those companies that obtained new sources (both domestic and international) there was still disruptions in delivery and productions. A book by Portuguese Economist Ludwig von Mises 1975 book "the British-Portuguese schism and its impact to both British & Portuguese Economies" delivers several major notable examples and information on "mad scramble" of the late 1960s in the Federation and Britain as companies either moved, divested of their holding or folded.

The ideological decision by the British Labor party with the left wing intellectuals, commentators and media all demanding a hard and immediate cut in all trade with the Federation (in which the British would be dealing a death blow to the Federation) had a dramatic affect on the British economy. When the British government threatened to follow through on that premise the British Ambassador was called to Prime Minister office that evening and advised that all oil shipments to Britain would be stopped till all obligations were honored. The Federation provided Britain with 1/3 of its oil and with all western countries facing new Arab oil embargo this would of been devastating to the British economy. The British Ambassador Sir Anthony Lambert got on the next plane to London in morning and after much heated and angry meeting with Prime Minister and his cabinet the British government announced they would honor the British obligations but not reverse course. These discussions were kept secret for few years but eventually came out. Of course the Portuguese cut off the British in 1970 after the agreement was terminated and massive restrictions put on trade with the Federation. Ironically this put the British in direct contrast to the Germans and French who had not such restrictions.

Ludwig von Mises book stated that the British government had underestimated the interdependency of the British economy on the Federation and that over 1/2 the manufacturers were directly affected. With several major firms in consumer goods, electronics, defense and automobile forced to merge, leave Britain or close. IOTL this happened in the late 1940s and 1950s but iTTL Portuguese market had provided many of these companies a lifeline while Britain recovered from war. By the 1960s in some cases Federation market accounted for 1/2 or more of their sales. When tens of thousands of workers started getting laid off the Labor party main supporter the Unions were incensed. There were even revolts in some of the more left leaning unions as rank and file revolted against the leadership who continued to support the schism.

As for the repercussions in the 1970s and beyond we will have to leave for a different day.
 
As for the repercussions in the 1970s and beyond we will have to leave for a different day.
That's what I'm really looking forward to. How does the schism and it's less than desirable results affects Britain going forward? And the British Commonwealth which will likely dwindled to the former White Dominions who are mostly looking to an America also hostile to the Federation, thus reducing their own opportunities with the rising nation. Australia esp. having witnessed the end of South Africa might double down on it's racial policies in fear.
 

Lusitania

Donor
That's what I'm really looking forward to. How does the schism and it's less than desirable results affects Britain going forward? And the British Commonwealth which will likely dwindled to the former White Dominions who are mostly looking to an America also hostile to the Federation, thus reducing their own opportunities with the rising nation. Australia esp. having witnessed the end of South Africa might double down on it's racial policies in fear.
Africa 1969 Alliance.gif

Africa the much maligned continent in our world plays a much more prominent role in the TL. Lets look a little at the major political players.
British Commonwealth - As can be seen in Picture above the British commonwealth is limited to Gambia, Sierra Leon, Ghana, Nigeria, Lesotho, Natal and Kenya. For reason other than Federation the commonwealth has lost South Africa, Botswana, Tanzania, Sudan, Uganda and Egypt have all withdrawn from the British Commonwealth due to their political opposition to "colonialism" and imperialism. To matters worse the tow largest commonwealth members were more politically and militarily aligned with the US who was pouring huge amounts of foreign and military aid to these countries.
French Community - was back with a vengeance and under strict French control both the countries with and without treaty with the Portuguese. Any French speaking country whose government was not in accordance French influence had after the African wars been replaced and the French policy of development and trade coupled with influence was the new French policy to counter both Islamic/anti-imperialism message and ironically catchup with Federation or just keep up with the Lusitania Commonwealth new development.
Pan African Alliance - was a mere shadow its size from before the African Wars (Tanzania, Uganda and Zaire). After the debacle of the African wars and the heavy defeat suffered to the Portuguese the Soviet Union had established direct control over these countries and their freedom or alignment would mimic the European countries of the Warsaw pack with these African governments and military full of Soviet and Eastern European advisors who now outranked their African counterparts.
Arab League Alliance - Led by Egypt with both Sudan and Libya joining it in their war against Israel, Federation, France and all Imperialists. Joining it was the weakest and most distant member Islamic state of Morocco, who cared little for anything else but in extracting revenge on the Federation and its two proxies kingdoms of Fez and Marrakesh. Beset by internal dissent and repression or insurrections they would be occupied for the majority of the 1970s. The Arab League Alliance was aligned with the Soviet Union but unlike the Pan African Alliance remain independent of Soviet control.
Unaligned African countries - was a mixed group of countries that in reality were either influenced by one or several supper powers.
  • Liberia was considered by many an American proxy and the US took any threat against it seriously and had an agreement to defend it. IT had either a neutral or friendly relationship with all its neighbors.​
  • South Africa under Nelson Mandela and ANC viewed itself as an African Socialist country with only a small Asian/white population. It actually had a very good economic relationship with both USA and Britain (especially after its split with the Federation) and was USA and west's principle supplier of several important minerals. It's relationship with its neighbors was antagonist at best with it refusing to recognize Natal, and all Lusitania Commonwealth countries. It had no embassy with these countries or Federation. The Federation and South Africa did though have regular clandestine meetings and have an understanding of non-interference while not actually having official diplomatic / trade relations.​
  • Burundi/Rwanda - these two countries are at moment odd countries out surrounded by Pan African Alliance and Commonwealth Lusitanian countries. There is an understanding any movement into these countries by either group would lead to renewed hostilities between the two. But how that will continue who knows.​
  • Ethiopia - is Actually a Communist Chinese ally but is beset by internal struggle against ethnic groups within its border as well as being regional rival to Sudan and supplying rebel groups in Sudan. Soviet Union in turn supplying any group opposed to the Ethiopians.​
France - the second European country to still have provinces in the continent. It all started with Tangier and the Portuguese-Morocco War in which the enclave of Tangier became a pro-French enclave demanding to join France and putting France in an unattainable position. Either face defeat in France or revolt in Africa. This following the death of De Gaulle would result in France doubling down and keeping Oran and eastern Algeria. Putting on direct conflict with several African countries. Seeing the Portuguese increased strength and prestige in Africa as result of African wars made the French realize they needed to re-establish their dominance with French Speaking countries.
 
Soviet Union had established direct control over these countries and their freedom or alignment would mimic the European countries of the Warsaw pack with these African governments and military full of Soviet and Eastern European advisors who now outranked their African counterparts.
How does the Soviet Union keep the militaries of these nations in line? It's not like they can simply roll in as in Eastern Europe after all and advisers cannot counter native militaries on their own.
 
How does the Soviet Union keep the militaries of these nations in line? It's not like they can simply roll in as in Eastern Europe after all and advisers cannot counter native militaries on their own.
Economic and military aid, as well as Western Counter-revolutionary fear I would assume?
 

Lusitania

Donor
How does the Soviet Union keep the militaries of these nations in line? It's not like they can simply roll in as in Eastern Europe after all and advisers cannot counter native militaries on their own.

Economic and military aid, as well as Western Counter-revolutionary fear I would assume?
The biggest factor was the deployment of Soviet troops in all three countries in over 6 bases including Soviet navy ships in Tanzania. Soviet trained KGB Africans, and other apparatus that had been training in Soviet Union at time of war returned home. By mid 1970s CIA estimated close to 50,000 Soviet Troops were in Pan African countries. In 1975 a rare propaganda documentary it showed tens of thousand of African troops in the Soviet Union as part of the Soviet-Pan African mutual Defense pact.
 
1960 - Health & Education

Lusitania

Donor
1960 – 1969

Health and Education

Health

In 1960 Dr. Froilano de Mello, the first Portuguese Indian in Portuguese government retired from public life due to health concerns, his assistant Dr Pundolica D Gaitonde another Portuguese Indian was appointed to succeed him as Minister of Health.

The “Casa do Povo” national health plan continued to provide basic medical, dental, prescription services for free or greatly reduced rates. Cost continued to be based on people’s salary and rates were set at 12% of salary. By 1960s with mandatory coverage the “Casa do Povo” health plan began suffering great delays and strained under the lack of resources. Not that the government was not providing hundreds of millions of escudos to subsidizing the plan but simply the demand was greater than the government centers could accommodate. Throughout the 60s over 100 hospitals (national, regional and provincial) were either built or under construction. The huge population growth plus inadequate infrastructure meant that the government was forced to build the health system infrastructure from scratch in many cases. Private clinics and hospitals continued to operate and even expand alongside the public system.

The largest deterrent to providing timely health care was in fact not infrastructure but personnel; the lack of doctors, specialist, technicians, and nurses put severe strains on the system. The universities and colleges were running at full capacity but the number of doctors per 1000 was only .6 in 1950s. By 1969 it had increased to 1.1 as a result of immigration of qualified professionals and the growing capacity of the country’s universities and colleges to train medical professionals. While this was comparable with UK, France and US it was a great accomplishment when in comparison to Africa, South American and Asian countries which had a value of less than half that.

Infant mortality continued to decrease while life expectancy continued to reach new levels and Portuguese statistics were comparable with other major western countries. A huge milestone with millions of people living in Africa and Asia as Portuguese standards took into account the millions of people who till recently had lived in poverty, living in huts or in disease infested parts of the country. Sanitation, clean water, immunization, programs to combat some of the country’s most challenging diseases such as dracunculiasis, yellow fever, malaria and tsetse flies were all major health initiatives underway in the country. Some like dracunculiasis had been eradicated while other such as yellow fever and malaria the government provided large amount of money to universities, scientists, the Royal Scientific Society and to pharmaceutical companies in an attempt to develop way to lessen the impact of these diseases and eventually find cures.

In 1961 the national mandatory immunization program provided free vaccines for all children and new immigrants for the following diseases: Smallpox, Diphtheria, Tetanus, Pertussis and Polio. In 1966 a measles vaccine was developed and manufactured in the country. The measles vaccine was based on the vaccine that had been developed by Dr. Enders, while an American he was passionate in saving lives and the Portuguese became one of the first countries to start manufacturing his measles vaccine. The first Portuguese developed vaccine was the rubella vaccine developed in Luanda by Dr. Gustaf Heidrick working at the University of Luanda in partnership with Hospital of Santo Antonio in southern Luanda. Developed in 1966 it went into production in 1967 and in 1969 became administered together with measles and mumps vaccine in the world first MMR vaccine. It was subsequently licensed to major pharmaceutical companies in Europe and as the growing Portuguese Pharmaceutical industry expanded the vaccine and other medicines for export especially South America, Africa and Asia.

In 1960 the British Conglomerate Imperial Chemical Industries (ICI) pharmaceutical division setup a manufacturing plant in the specialty Bio Development Zone near Bissau, this was followed Glaxo Laboratories which had bought out Allen & Hansburys they were also joined by fellow British pharmaceutical company Boroughs Wellcome & Company. Also present in Bissau Pharma zone was Israeli pharma company of Teva as well as BIAL and Bayer Portugal. The growth of the Portuguese Pharmaceutical industry continued to grow with employment in the industry surpassing 25,000 by 1969. The Portuguese government continued to support both Portuguese and foreign pharmaceutical companies to not only setup manufacturing plants in the country but to also setup R&D plants too. In 1968 the British Glaxo Laboratories and Boroughs Wellcome merged their Portuguese subsidiaries and listed the corporation on the PSE.

During the 1960s Portuguese pharmaceutical companies BIAL, Bayer Portugal, Hovione, and Laboratórios Basi continued their expansion and also began expanding internationally with South America and Indian subcontinent being the primary markets. At the time, the Brazilian market was dominated by American and European pharmaceutical companies with only Laboratório Teuto Brasileiro as the single major Brazilian Pharmaceutical company in the country. During the 1960s the Portuguese pharmaceutical companies were able to establish a strong presence in Brazil and in South America. While in the Indian subcontinent Havione the largest vaccine manufacturer in the Portuguese Federation teamed up with Biological E limited to manufacture vaccines for the IEU market. The Indian pharmaceutical company Cipla Limited entered the Portuguese market with the construction of two pharmaceutical plans in Sanguem, Goa Baixa. This led that provincial government to designate Sanguem as specialty Bio Development Zone similar to Bissau in 1969 in hope of attracting additional pharmaceutical companies to the area for both the Portuguese and IEU market. One of the first companies to establish itself in Sanguem was Bio Product Laboratory from UK which moved its small blood plasma plant located on the outskirts of Lisbon to a new facility five times the size of its Lisbon plant. While Braun Melsungen from Germany entered the Portuguese and IEU market for first time.

The construction of low-income housing continued not only in the major centers but more importantly in many smaller towns and during 1960s Portuguese Federation was building 40,000+ homes a year under the Affordable Housing Act. During the 1960s the Portuguese made real headway in dismantling many of the shanty towns that had sprung up in many of the urban centers with the number of people living in shanty towns reduced by 60%.

Education

During the 1960s Cecília Supico Pinto continued as the Minister of Education. During the 1960s the Portugalization of the people continued with strict limitation on the use of local dialects, languages as well as foreign languages. This included the expansion of adult literacy and language classes for all adults, as of 1960 30% of all Europeans were illiterate while that number was over 60% for Africans and Asians. By 1969 illiteracy had been reduced to under 10% of Europeans, 35% for Africans and 25% for Asians. While the numbers were staggering, more than 80% of all illiterates were over the age of 65. In terms of Portuguese language education by 1960 100% of all school age children were registered in public or private schools learning Portuguese as the primary language. In 1965 the Portuguese government began authorizing the first bilingual schools with German, Spanish and English the most popular languages.

During the 1960s the teacher aid program was slowly winded down as the primary and secondary teacher university programs provided a steady stream of teachers to meet the expanding education system. In 1966 the education program was updated to make school attendance mandatory till age of 16. The elementary program was expanded to grade 9 and then students could choose to either attend vocational schools or university prep school for students who met the minimum grades. Using the German Apprentice Program as model the department of education working in conjunction with industry expanded vocational schools to meet the need for trades.

The University program started in the 50s to provide an “A” class university in each province continued as the number of universities reached 35 by 1969. While the University program was impressive considering that the country only had three universities 30 years before, the most significant was the 100 plus colleges operating in the country by 1969.[1]

As the decade progressed university education became the norm in the country as government support allowed thousands of middle class and even poor students to attend university. The resentment witnessed in the 1950s dissipated somewhat but still lingered in the universities. Fear or DGS/SIS intervention kept most of the racism and discrimination at bay and the groups most targeted (women, Indians, Asians, and Africans) only witnessed covert racism and discrimination. The situation also changed as the number of teaching positions continued to increase with the opening of new colleges and universities so the number of older professors with the harshest attitudes slowly became more insignificant.[2]

The Portuguese Youth (PY) organization continued to be an integral part of the country’s education and government’s nationalist information tools. Portuguese youth organizations provided sports, arts, cultural and recreation activities as well as sponsoring civil duty and obligation sessions for all youth from preschooler to teenager. Included in the PY information for teenagers was information about career and both moral and civil duty guidance to both males and females.[3]

Sciences

During the 1960s Portuguese scientists began catching up to their peers around the world, as science, engineering and other technical and scientific fields became respected and highly appreciated fields within the country. More importantly jobs for these professions were readily available in a variety of industries in the Federation, at the universities and academic intuitions such as the Lisbon Academy of Sciences which had grown to have chapters throughout the country although it still retained its historical name.

In the 1960s medical advancements in Portuguese pharmaceutical corporations and Universities brought prestige to the entire sector, important research continued to be conducted on a variety of tropical and other human/animal diseases. Meanwhile theoretical sciences grabbed the headlines with the announcement that the Portuguese had developed nuclear weapons but more importantly built nuclear power plants. At the end of the decade the Portuguese scientist were working on developing hydrogen bombs, shrinking the nuclear warhead to fit in an ICBM and also developing nuclear engines for submarines and aircraft carriers. Portuguese scientists and engineers had also developed Portugal’s own rocket program and while it witnesses a few setbacks by the end of the decade production and progress was set to make 1970s a decade to remember.

The 1960s was also the decade that computer science grew into a full-fledged industry and university departments in the country expanded or were started. The purchase of Elliot and Ferranti Mercury computers in the 1950s had sparked real interest in computer science in the country not only by universities but also by government and military. In 1962 the Ferranti Mercury’s successor the Atlas Computer was developed and commissioned. In 1964 the only Atlas Computer sold outside the UK was sold to the University of Lisbon which also shared its computing power with several large corporations and government agencies.

At the same time that Ferranti was building the Atlas for the Lisbon University its management decided it no longer wanted to be involved in the computer industry and was longing to sell. In 1964 Ferranti entered into negotiations with International Computers and Tabulators (ICT) to sell its computer division. ICT was hesitant to purchase Ferranti computer division so Ferranti provided them with information on the Ferranti-Packard 6000 but ICT still did not want to pay the asking price. During the negotiations, Ferranti was approached by Portuguese investors offering to buy the computer division for twice the money they were asking for. This put both Ferranti and ICT in a predicament, Ferranti wanted to sell the division for the best price possible while ICT was interested in the Ferranti-Packard 6000 specs. In 1965 a compromise was reached in which Ferranti sold its British computing division along with the technology for the atlas successor and the Ferranti-Packard 6000 to the Portuguese investors while ICT purchased Ferranti’s Canadian subsidiary Ferranti-Packard and the specs to the Ferranti-Packard 6000. With two companies now having the same technology the tricky part was sales territory, The Ferranti Computer Company as it became known would continue to design and manufacture computers in the UK, but its sales territory was limited to Portuguese Federation and South America while ICT would have the right to sell the Ferranti-Packard 6000 and its successors within Britain, British Commonwealth and Europe. Many industry watchers made fun of the deal which provided ICT with free technology and made millions for Ferranti.

The Portuguese investors backed by the Portuguese government and military were not worried and from 1965 to 1968 several hundred Portuguese engineers went to work at the Ferranti Computing plant in Britain. In 1966 the FC-7000 was released which was based on the Ferranti-Packard 6000 computer and over the next 3 years over two dozen were manufactured for the Portuguese Federation, Brazil and Argentina. In 1968 Ferranti Computer Company began building a new plant and R&D center in the city of Carmona, in the Portuguese Federation, this coincided with the announcement of the FC-9000 a 24-bit processing computer. The construction and move to the Portuguese Federation was accelerated in 1969 with the British government’s anti-Portuguese Federation trade and technology legislation. That year Ferranti closed its plant in the UK and over 1,500 workers were laid off in Britain. Over the remainder of the year all remaining Portuguese engineers and 800 of the British workers moved to the Portuguese Federation to work at the new plant. Many of the remaining workers either retired or went to work for other British companies such as ICT which had a slightly more advanced computer called the 1900 series.


[1] Portuguese Colleges or “B” class Universities provided advanced studies in trades and also 1 and 2-year courses in a variety of fields. While they were similar in some ways to polytechnical institutions in Germany and France but had been modified to meet Portuguese needs. Some of the colleges also functioned as University prep colleges for adults who needed to upgrade their studies in order to attend university. iOTL over 20 colleges were opened after the overthrow of Estado Novo in Portugal.
[2] During the 1960s University attendance by non-Europeans males and females continued to account for over 66% of all students in Portuguese universities. Costs to attend university in Portuguese Federation was based on the family income thus allowing low-income students the same access as high-income students.
[3] In 1960s several child abuse allegations against PY staff and volunteers were made. In the first years, they were for the most part dismissed or swept away. But in 1968 several important sports and entertainment personalities took up several cases of sexual and physical abuse by youth and adults. As the newspapers and televisions reported on them hundreds of other kids and adults wrote to these organizations telling their stories of similar abuse. The Portuguese Public was outraged, and the government launched a Royal Commission in 1969 with the powers to call witnessed and question subjects and lay charges in the abuses both for those perpetrating the crimes but also covering them up.


This section always is interesting to write as we try envision what realistic things would happen taking into consideration what the economic, size and priorities the country would have in these regards. Nothing is ever done without regards to progress in the past and the events transpiring at the time. In Health the governments efforts to transform Portuguese health care into a leading world system continues as it wages a tireless campaign against disease and improving access to healthcare. We can state that Portuguese healthcare in Africa and rest of non-European provinces would be the envy of other countries in those continents while in Europe Portuguese medical standard had reached other leading European countries. While public hospitals which were funded by the Casa do Povo health program catered to the Portuguese the private hospitals catered to all and at times close to 40% of patients came from outside the Federation and Commonwealth. iOTL the Casa do Povo was a program started by Estado Novo to provide for those less fortune, elderly and healthcare. iTTL it started much earlier and provided greater protection, support and medical services. As part of the Health section is the continuing growth and maturity of Pharmaceutical Industry both domestic and international in the country. Now on to education the country still struggled to educate all those who wanted to receive a post secondary education as the kids who had be sent to school graduated and looked at options and opportunities. Hence the development of the college system decades ahead of iotl but vital to the development of the country. Lastly we discuss science which in the 1960s saw an explosion in its importance and popularity. We also see the last technology transfer from Britain to the Federation with the country gaining its first computer company Questions/ Comments?

Return in 2 weeks on July 25 when we post the ever fun security section.
 
Thank you for writing this timeline of what goverment, which can rationally plan up to years and decades into the future and not till next election but also put that plan into action, looks like. But it is also sad in comparison to see how much in Real world the goverment just waste money and time instead of investing it into the future of its people insted of just for themselves.
 
I guess both the US and the Soviets are a bit too busy for a space race, so no 69 moon mission?

I think TTL South Africa would actually be better off than OTL by the 90s. The Wealth gap wouldn't be so ridiculous even if the country itself isn't as wealthy. Also as relations relax they'll have a much more developed north on their border to trade with and copy from.
 
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Lusitania

Donor
Thank you for writing this timeline of what goverment, which can rationally plan up to years and decades into the future and not till next election but also put that plan into action, looks like. But it is also sad in comparison to see how much in Real world the goverment just waste money and time instead of investing it into the future of its people insted of just for themselves.
First and foremost you welcome.

When I was writing this TL I had to try to figure out how Portugal could achieve goal of developing its vast territory in a few decades and unfortunately the more logical way is to look at repressive regimes like communist China who have done so in similar time frame (minus the time under Mao). Even Korea in the 1960-1970 was under repressive regime. Therefore it is reasonable for governments to accomplish these higher goals and provide both development and higher standard of living to people without worrying about election cycle.

The huge problems are corruption and lack of freedoms. Corruption can be fought against by using the same mechanisms that keep dissidents at bay. Vigilance and pre-screening of government officials. Also important is the good salary and standard of living that individual earn. Harsh penalties to both those offering or demanding bribes can help deter corruption.

As for lack of freedom that is something that Federation has but till mid 1970s the freedoms enjoyed by citizens of the federation were greater than iotl. Even after they were much higher is most of Federstion than the newly independent countries. Only Portugal had more freedom but that came at great economic costs.

One thing that I had forgotten to mention was a working political opposition and limited free press. Let me explain. The federation political process was stacked heavily in favor of the United party which ruled the country but by no means assured if the party failed to deliver on its objectives or people grew tired of it they could technically elect other party. While that would not change the executive right away it would shake the moral right of the government and to stay in power dissolve legislative branch and dispense with all future elections. So the opposition parties and the limited press keep pressure on the government and especially corporations and bureaucracy. Government officials take accusations of corruption or abuse very serious with independent investigations launched and trials for those arrested.

That being said corruption did happen but in discreet ways. It existed snd exists in all countries fir in Portuguese we said “ só pode batizar quem tem padrinhos” which roughly translated only those with god parents can be baptized. Each country has their own saying. But favors need be discreet and never shown outward. It would only be in 1990s onward that western societies would demand greater fight against collusion and corruption themselves iotl.
 
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Lusitania

Donor
I guess both the US and the Soviets are a bit too busy for a space race, so no 69 moon mission?
Hm.. no they actually on target I just have not really mentioned it. I had written a large Space Exploration section in the 1970s section because it ties in with the Portuguese/Lusitania Commonwealth own space exploration ( I always better late than never). So have to think about how to talk about space exploration in the 1960s. Maybe a little section under both the US and Soviet Sections.
 

Lusitania

Donor
I think TTL South Africa would actually be better off than OTL by the 90s. The Wealth gap wouldn't be so ridiculous even if the country itself isn't as wealthy. Also as relations relax they'll have a much more developed north on their border to trade with and copy from.
South África under Nelson Mandela and the ANC during the 1960s and 1970s is in turmoil as the country adjust to huge flight of capital and trained and educated personnel at end of civil war. For most of the 1970s the country was undergoing a transformation as Africans were trained for many of the positions that had been vacated by Afrikaners.

Now following ANC seizing power, all mining and large corporations, banks and industries were nationalized (only family owned business with less than 25 employees were exempt). This of course caused much anger amongst the Americans and British corporations and business people who demanded South African government pay huge sums, but South Africa was rich in many crucial resources and was coveted by both America and Soviets and Nelson Mandela was shrewd and extracted largest compensation and payment possible for those resources. While ideologically the Soviets had an advantage they were under severe economic strains and were not able to compete with the American/wester Europe offer. There were even several claims made that ANC rise and Nelson Mandela position had been orchestrated by the CIA. But no proof was ever found.

The compensation to American/British companies whose properties were seized was bankrolled by Americans and west. South African received huge economic support to invest in infrastructure for its people and to educate its people. But Nelson Mandela had another demand that would not only help SA but also empower Africans living in America and Europe. He demanded all educated professionals, administrators, teachers/professors and support staff be Africans. They go to SA for 3-5 terms.

America /Western Europe (Britain) desperate for the crucial resources from SA “drafted” Africans in their countries to go to SA but due to not enough qualified Africans available they had to help train thousands of Africans to be able to send to SA. It seemed like overnight African Americans who before struggled to enter University or get into certain industries were being rushed through with special African only bursaries.

This had a profound impact back in the US and Europe (Britain) as these individuals returned home (they could not stay in SA past 2 terms and when they returned had both skills, knowledge or expertise to compete with others for many positions.

As the 1970s turned into the 1980s South Africans took over more and more positions from the Americans and Europeans do that by 1990s very few foreigners were required anymore and more educated SA emerged.

As for América, Britain and Western Europe/world that had been part of the Educate Africans program they were left with thousands of educated and experienced Africans. To this day Nelson Mandela is as revered in African communities in the USA, Canada, Britain and Europe as he is in SA.
 
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