A loyalist Amazon?

[Taunay]

Brazilian independence was a very complicated process, especially because ''Brazil'' was separated into two states: Brazil and Grão Pará and Rio Negro, which covered almost the entirety of Portuguese Amazon. The elites of Pará were very loyalist and pro-Portugal, mostly because Belém, due to its location, had a lot of trade with Lisbon that Rio didn't have. Not only that, but Portuguese influence was stronger in Grão Pará. That meant that when the war started, the majority of Northerners supported remaining as a Portuguese dominion, something that only changed after they discovered that Portugal wanted to return its South American territories to colony status. But even then, Grão Pará wanted a separate independence from Portugal, remaining its own country and republic, with many in the elite vocally opposing integration with Brazil.

However, could have Grão Pará and Portugal reached a deal where Grão Pará wouldn't lose its status and remain a loyalist country? Or at the very least would they've been able to mantain separation from Brazil, even as they proclaimed their own independence?

 

[pandizzy]

Brazil very much had more than two states.

 

[Taunay]

Brazil very much had more than two states.
View attachment 725336

I think I wasn't clear enough, when I say State, I mean more in the sense of nation. Grão-Pará, during the colonial era, despite being a part of Brazil, was actually more of an independent colony with a different administration and especially separate elite from the rest of Brazil, it could very well have been its own country at the time.

 

[John I of Brazil]

I think I wasn't clear enough, when I say State, I mean more in the sense of nation. Grão-Pará, during the colonial era, despite being a part of Brazil, was actually more of an independent colony with a different administration and especially separate elite from the rest of Brazil, it could very well have been its own country at the time.

Brazil very much had more than two states.
View attachment 725336

OP is talking about the State of Maranhão, which later became the State of Grão-Pará and Maranhão. Here's a map of this state after the reform. Both Maranhão and Grão-Para were loyalist states, the former actually being the last state to adhere to brazilian independence.

 

[Taunay]

OP is talking about the State of Maranhão, which later became the State of Grão-Pará and Maranhão. Here's a map of this state after the reform. Both Maranhão and Grão-Para were loyalist states, the former actually being the last state to adhere to brazilian independence.

Exactly, that's why I'm interested to imagine a world with a loyalist Grão-Pará

 

[Taunay]

IOTL, a blockade by a British individual forced Grão-Pará to be joined into Brazil

 

[Taunay]

IOTL, a blockade by a British individual forced Grão-Pará to be joined into Brazil

I had forgotten, but that individual was Lord Cochrane, who succesfully joined Grão-Pará with the Brazilian Empire

 

[ToasterOven456]

Exactly, that's why I'm interested to imagine a world with a loyalist Grão-Pará

well we need to think about things, like how would the portuguese be able to exploit Northern Brazil?

 

[Taunay]

well we need to think about things, like how would the portuguese be able to exploit Northern Brazil?

Well, at that point there really wasn't much in that region of Portuguese interest. But if we can butterfly this POD to result in an earlier rubber boom, it would suddenly become Portugal's most important colony/Dominion

 

[Taunay]

well we need to think about things, like how would the portuguese be able to exploit Northern Brazil?

But still, without British intervention on behalf of Brazil, Grão-Pará would not face any threats to its sovereignty. And if they did arise, the vast majority of those threats would be internal (I could see a Pro-Brazil movement that would advocate for Grão-Pará to join Brazil or a nationalist movement that would advocate for an independent Grão-Pará)

 

[holycookie]

But still, without British intervention on behalf of Brazil, Grão-Pará would not face any threats to its sovereignty. And if they did arise, the vast majority of those threats would be internal (I could see a Pro-Brazil movement that would advocate for Grão-Pará to join Brazil or a nationalist movement that would advocate for an independent Grão-Pará)

Well if brazil loses part of the north its focus turns to the south. The nation will influence/conquer more of South America. Probably taking a region of Entrerios and Mesopotânia from Argentina. Another factor is the fact that the loss due to the lack of a strong armed/navy force implies a brazil that would have a high priority in the creation of this force. This has great positive implications for the empire of Brazil.
In the long run, Grão-Para won't be able to survive, unfortunately it's a nation that doesn't have a large population being protected by Portugal. The most likely result is a brazil that expands in the south, strengthens itself and after about 20 or 30 years comes and reconquers this territory.

 

[ToasterOven456]

But still, without British intervention on behalf of Brazil, Grão-Pará would not face any threats to its sovereignty. And if they did arise, the vast majority of those threats would be internal (I could see a Pro-Brazil movement that would advocate for Grão-Pará to join Brazil or a nationalist movement that would advocate for an independent Grão-Pará)

I read on another thread gold and iron could be discovered earlier. This could also fund the restoration project (to industrialize and modernize portugal). It failed because of a lack of funds. With a gold rush though? Portugal would be the most industrial in Southern Europe with some more funds to spare for securing the Pink Map

 

[ToasterOven456]

Well if brazil loses part of the north its focus turns to the south. The nation will influence/conquer more of South America. Probably taking a region of Entrerios and Mesopotânia from Argentina. Another factor is the fact that the loss due to the lack of a strong armed/navy force implies a brazil that would have a high priority in the creation of this force. This has great positive implications for the empire of Brazil.
In the long run, Grão-Para won't be able to survive, unfortunately it's a nation that doesn't have a large population being protected by Portugal. The most likely result is a brazil that expands in the south, strengthens itself and after about 20 or 30 years comes and reconquers this territory.

with the gold rush I mentioned the Portuguese could afford a larger military (and a more modern one at that). Brazil might try to invade before the gold rush, which might work

 

[holycookie]

with the gold rush I mentioned the Portuguese could afford a larger military (and a more modern one at that). Brazil might try to invade before the gold rush, which might work

more than money the problem is bodies. Portugal doesn't have a population to lose in a prolong war against Brazil. In 1850 Brazil had 7.25 million and Portugal 3.8 M. In 1880 there were 12 M and Portugal 4.6 M. Brazil will become exponentially stronger and Portugal will become weaker. Whether in 40 or 80 years, Grão-Para has a limited lifespan. Especially if Brazil expands in the Pampas region (Argentina).
Not to mention that a focus on Grão-Para means little focus on Africa, which was the fashion of the period.

 

[holycookie]

Portugal would be the most industrial in Southern Europe with some more funds to spare for securing the Pink Map

the pink map didn't work out because of the uk more than the lack of funds. Maybe more industrial than Spain, but not more than Italy.
This region is not the holy grail that would solve Portugal's problems. This colony comes with Brazil wanting the territory back. By the way, this probably means that brazil doesn't pay anything to portugal in terms of independence because of that, which is a positive for brazil.

 

[ToasterOven456]

holy cookie Portugal could rule northern Brazil with the same level of autonomy IOTL's Brazil. That would mean the colony would develop itself. Cash would also flow to Portugal and Britain respectively (British companies would be very present in the colony). So while I agree about Portugal being less industrial than Italy, and that Brazil would build up it's military, there are some points I disagree with. Firstly, why would Brazil risk attacking some British companies property? That's just suicide. Secondly, with companies running Grao Para the British and Portuguese could work out something similar in the Pink map, but much more direct.

Side note the Brazilians would be too worried with Paraguay to worry about invading the colony

 

[Taunay]

Well if brazil loses part of the north its focus turns to the south. The nation will influence/conquer more of South America. Probably taking a region of Entrerios and Mesopotânia from Argentina. Another factor is the fact that the loss due to the lack of a strong armed/navy force implies a brazil that would have a high priority in the creation of this force. This has great positive implications for the empire of Brazil.
In the long run, Grão-Para won't be able to survive, unfortunately it's a nation that doesn't have a large population being protected by Portugal. The most likely result is a brazil that expands in the south, strengthens itself and after about 20 or 30 years comes and reconquers this territory.

That's... very realistic, thank you! That would be an interesting TL to read about

 

[Taunay]

I read on another thread gold and iron could be discovered earlier. This could also fund the restoration project (to industrialize and modernize portugal). It failed because of a lack of funds. With a gold rush though? Portugal would be the most industrial in Southern Europe with some more funds to spare for securing the Pink Map

Gold rush? That was on the 17th century, my POD takes place in 1822, unless you're talking about some other gold rush

 

[Taunay]

more than money the problem is bodies. Portugal doesn't have a population to lose in a prolong war against Brazil. In 1850 Brazil had 7.25 million and Portugal 3.8 M. In 1880 there were 12 M and Portugal 4.6 M. Brazil will become exponentially stronger and Portugal will become weaker. Whether in 40 or 80 years, Grão-Para has a limited lifespan. Especially if Brazil expands in the Pampas region (Argentina).
Not to mention that a focus on Grão-Para means little focus on Africa, which was the fashion of the period.

That's true, we would have Grão-Pará being conquered and also a bigger Brazil in the Pampas region

 

[holycookie]

Portugal could rule northern Brazil with the same level of autonomy IOTL's Brazil.

maybe, but do they want it? Lisbon wanted a colony to have a semblance of the prestige that the nation once had. Not an equal, brazil had this one because it was the capital of the portuguese empire. Grão-Para doesn't have the strength to demand it.

Firstly, why would Brazil risk attacking some British companies property?

the agreement that portugal has with what can be offered by brazil with a greater amount of resources. The attack would be Portugal, which in turn has English industries. Not a attack on the uk.

Secondly, with companies running Grao Para the British and Portuguese could work out something similar in the Pink map, but much more direct.
Side note the Brazilians would be too worried with Paraguay to worry about invading the colony

uk wanted the territory to have an African colony that went from end to end of Africa. The only way for Portugal to have to change ally. the uk for france or germany. This in turn allows an attack on Grão para by Brazil.
paraguay had a big army and argentina and brazil had no army. That was the big advantage. The army begins to be created in 1862 with solano lopez. Brazil's independence is in 1822. With the situation that occurred, Brazil will create an army, preventing the independence of uruguay and probable loss of territory for argentina.
the paraguay war occurs due to uruguay being independent something that probably will not happen.