A Blunted Sickle - Thread II

Comments, more or less from North to South (and then East)

Looks like the Norwegians will take over the border stations with Sweden within a day or two. I don't think that the Union has much reason to force Norwegian (or for that matter Danish) refugees out immediately (especially in Winter). As for British/French forces in Norway post-war, probably similar to OTL Western Allies.

Denmark. Give them access to world trade and you (mostly) won't be able to tell the Germans were there by the end of 1942...

Germany. At this point unoccupied land for German is split into somewhere between 5 and 8 pieces. And it turned out the answer to the question that I asked a year or more ago is that the Entente did make it to Poland before the French cleared the Germans completely off the East side of the Rhine, but only by a day or so.

Italy. My primary question at this point is whether the fact that the Italians are intending to attack the Bremmer pass something that is publicized (or will become so) being late to the party without putting *any* boots down is not a good look. The *Hungarians* actually did something to take down the 3R, and it looks like the Italians will have zero.

Leading to... Hungary, have they advanced at all in Poland, or is it getting to the point where their advance is determined by where the ZWZ needs them to take out German stronghold areas (as a preview of the way that they'll work with Brits)

Poland, my guess is the Death camps are the areas where the Germans aren't surrendering. It should be interesting to see when information about the Katyn Massacre is available to the west.

Soviet Union... Have they finished taking previously nazi held Lithuania?

Japan. Are they saying anything at all about the defeat of their ally?
 
Looks like the Norwegians will take over the border stations with Sweden within a day or two. I don't think that the Union has much reason to force Norwegian (or for that matter Danish) refugees out immediately (especially in Winter).
I am unsure how many Norwegian refugees are in Sweden, given that there is still an unoccupied part of Norway with a border to the Union. In any case, most Norwegian and Danish refugees will still have families and homes to return to, and there will be plenty of work to do, so I think the main determinant on how fast they return to their home countries is how much transport capacity there is.
 
Can someone remind me what the status of the Kriegsmarine is? How much of it is looking at the sea surface from the wrong side, and how much is waiting for the British and French crews to take them over?
 
Can someone remind me what the status of the Kriegsmarine is? How much of it is looking at the sea surface from the wrong side, and how much is waiting for the British and French crews to take them over?
Most of the surface fleet was taken out by a british raid on their bases, following which Hitler threw a fit and decided the sale of the Bismarck to the Soviet. As for the U-Waffe, their campaign has been vastly less successful due to the need to operate from Norway. By now I highly doubt the Germans have anything bigger than a destroyer or a light cruiser waiting in port... But I'm sure a search for "fleet" or "kriegsmarine" in the thread will give all the detail you need :)
 
Comments, more or less from North to South (and then East)

Looks like the Norwegians will take over the border stations with Sweden within a day or two. I don't think that the Union has much reason to force Norwegian (or for that matter Danish) refugees out immediately (especially in Winter). As for British/French forces in Norway post-war, probably similar to OTL Western Allies.

Denmark. Give them access to world trade and you (mostly) won't be able to tell the Germans were there by the end of 1942...

Germany. At this point unoccupied land for German is split into somewhere between 5 and 8 pieces. And it turned out the answer to the question that I asked a year or more ago is that the Entente did make it to Poland before the French cleared the Germans completely off the East side of the Rhine, but only by a day or so.

Italy. My primary question at this point is whether the fact that the Italians are intending to attack the Bremmer pass something that is publicized (or will become so) being late to the party without putting *any* boots down is not a good look. The *Hungarians* actually did something to take down the 3R, and it looks like the Italians will have zero.

Leading to... Hungary, have they advanced at all in Poland, or is it getting to the point where their advance is determined by where the ZWZ needs them to take out German stronghold areas (as a preview of the way that they'll work with Brits)

Poland, my guess is the Death camps are the areas where the Germans aren't surrendering. It should be interesting to see when information about the Katyn Massacre is available to the west.

Soviet Union... Have they finished taking previously nazi held Lithuania?

Japan. Are they saying anything at all about the defeat of their ally?
  1. As mentioned elsewhere, there won't be that many refugees - my working assumption is that most who cross the border are potential combatants who will be heading straight for Narvik as soon as they can.
  2. It isn't quite that rosy, but a shorter war generally means much less destruction.
  3. So far the knowledge of what the Italians are up to is pretty limited. Historians will work it out eventually, but not nay time soon.
  4. The Hungarians have made some progress, but the terrain is very badly against them so their value is pretty localised.
  5. Lots more atrocities than just the Operation Reinhardt camps. German behaviour in Poland was extremely bad, with something like 20% of the population being murdered one way or another. It isn't so bad here - the shorter war helping again - but still horrific. The majority of the 3 million Polish Jews murdered in OTL will still die, for instance.
  6. The Soviets occupied Klaipėda in about 12 hours - overwhelming force and very limited German forces present. They could certainly have taken more, but it would be a gamble and that really isn't like Stalin.
  7. The Japanese wrote off the Germans some time ago as a useful ally.

Given the situation on the ground I imagine they’ve be insisting they were never allies for the past year.
Not quite. Since the Soviets have replaced Italy in the TTL Tripartite Pact it's more of a non-aggression pact than an alliance.

Can someone remind me what the status of the Kriegsmarine is? How much of it is looking at the sea surface from the wrong side, and how much is waiting for the British and French crews to take them over?
Sunk or Sold:
  • Scharnhorst - sunk in Kiel 21st October 1940.
  • Gneisenau - constructive total loss 21st October 1940 - minimum 8x 1600 lb AP / 1000 lb SAP bomb hits plus major fire.
  • Bismarck - commissioned into the Red Banner Baltic Fleet as the Karl Marx 1st December 1940.
  • Tirpitz - sunk in shallow water while fitting out at Wilhelmshaven 21st October 1940 - minimum 8x 1600 lb AP hits.
  • Admiral Scheer - sunk by Illustrious, Gloucester and Nigeria 320 NM SW of Ceylon 13th April 1941.
  • Admiral Graf Spee - scuttled pre-POD, 17th December 1939.
  • Blücher - sunk before the butterflies could get to her, as OTL 9th April 1940 in Oslofjord.
  • Emden - sunk in shallow water at Wilhelmshaven, 21st October 1940.
  • Königsberg - sunk before the butterflies could get to her, as OTL 10th April 1940 in Bergen harbour.
  • Karlsruhe - sunk before the butterflies could get to her, as OTL 9th April 1940 off Kristiansand.
  • Köln - constructive total loss 21st October 1940 - 3 x 1,000 lb SAP hits and one near miss while in dry dock.
Afloat:
  • Graf Zeppelin - being used for timber storage in Gotenhafen as per OTL.
  • Lützow - tied up in Kiel, crew drafted into the Heer.
  • Admiral Hipper - tied up in Kiel, crew drafted into the Heer.
  • Prinz Eugen - tied up in Kiel, crew drafted into the Heer.
  • Leipzig - training ship tied up in Wilhelmshaven, never repaired after her bows were blown off 21st October 1940.
  • Nürnberg - training ship tied up in Kiel, never repaired after damage to her engine room 21st October 1940.
 
Just saying that there will probably be few refugees in narvik due to geography. As I've said before, there are no roads whatsoever up there at this point in time and swedes are likely interning any refugees that looks remotely like they want to fight to protect their neutrality. So most will be in sweden.
 
Just saying that there will probably be few refugees in Narvik due to geography. As I've said before, there are no roads whatsoever up there at this point in time and swedes are likely interning any refugees that looks remotely like they want to fight to protect their neutrality. So most will be in Sweden.
5th September 1940

At a turbulent cabinet meeting in Sweden, Karl Gustav Westman complains bitterly about what he calls a breach of Swedish neutrality in weakening the border controls with Norway, claiming that it is designed to let Norwegians sneak through Sweden from occupied Norway in order to bolster the Norwegian Army. This does not prove a popular position in cabinet, with Gustav Möller claiming that his men are massively overstretched as it is controlling the border with German-occupied Norway and assisting the Finns. An attempt to get the Army to support the border guards is shot down by Per-Edvin Sköld who makes it clear that even if he had the spare manpower (he doesn't), it would be illegal for him to use troops in a police role, and has been for almost a decade. Overall, Westman's complaints garner little support in a cabinet that has in the past couple of months become more anti-German and pro-Norwegian as their freedom of manoeuvre has been enhanced by the reopening of the Narvik railway and their alliance with Finland.​
Narvik is the main transit point between the two countries thanks to the railway - they pretty much all arrive there, although many won't stay.
 
Here is an updated situation map for 8 January. It is clear that, except for a few pockets, all organized German resistance has collapsed. Even the remaining pockets, except possibly Berlin, rely more on the Entente's logistical problems than on any strength of their defense. Here is a review of the situation from the German point of view as I see it.
  1. The bulk of the German 15th Army is likely immobile in the Wittenberge pocket and, with the capture of Stettin, is effectively surrounded. I suspect that there are few, if any, German formations in Pomerania east of the Oder River.
  2. The pocket in Berlin, being the capital, may still be able to put a strong defense for a day or two to preserve the national honor, but will probably quickly collapse if the British bring any serious pressure. Pdf27 has not mentioned how may German forces have been assembled in Berlin. Have the British moved in yet beyond the outer suburbs? Is there any active combat now going on in Berlin?
  3. I show the German 5th Army moving from southern Silesia to positions south of Berlin, but it is unlikely that they have manned anything stronger than roadblocks. In any case, the British 1st Army is not moving in their direction, so this may be sufficient to stabilize the line for the time being.
  4. The German 2nd Panzer Army is being pocketed southeast of Erfurt by the rapid movements of the British and French into Czechoslovakia. The 2nd Panzer Army, due to residual mechanized and motorized elements, probably has the highest mobility of any of the German forces (assuming they have been able husband some fuel supplies), but it will avail them of nothing.
  5. The German 6th Army is immobile and completely surrounded east of Giessen.
  6. The German 7th Army who had been guarding the east bank of the Rhine has retreated to the Black Forest and is now completely cut off from other German forces.
  7. There are likely to be few, if any, German forces in Bavaria, allowing the French 4th and 6th Armies to move at their will, limited only by their own logistics. Due to the rapidity of the French advance, I suspect that the Germans would have been unable to organize anything beyond a token defense for Munich, which should fall in a day or two. Depending on the locations, it is even possible that the French have captured Field Marshal Reichnau and the staff of OB West as well as Field Marshal Witzleben and the staff of Army Group C.
  8. The German 14th Army likely will use the current passivity of the Hungarians to shuttle forces to the west to defend Salzburg, but it will be insufficient to hold back the French for long.
  9. Similarly, the German 19th Army in Bohemia is likely shifting some troops to the west to counter the British and French penetrations into Sudetenland, but the liberation of Prague is now just a matter of time. The only question is who will get this prize first, the British 3rd Army, the French 1st Army, or the Czechoslovak 1st Army. I wouldn't be surprised if Ritchie and Prioux were ordered to hold short of Prague to allow Catlos to have the pride of liberating his capital.
  10. The German 3rd Army probably is the only remaining organized army in OB East. Due to the mass surrenders reported, the German 8th and 17th Armies now exist in name only.
 

Attachments

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Driftless

Donor
Since there has been no Barbarossa, might some of the SS units in East Poland or even East Prussia try to surrender/be interned by the Soviets? Perhaps seen as being the lesser of two bad ends - that is if the Soviets would even allow them in?
 
Since there has been no Barbarossa, might some of the SS units in East Poland or even East Prussia try to surrender/be interned by the Soviets? Perhaps seen as being the lesser of two bad ends - that is if the Soviets would even allow them in?
That seems unlikely. After their street fights against the Communists in pre-war Germany, why the would any hard core Nazi believe that surrendering to the Soviets would earn them anything other than a one-way ticket to a Siberian work camp?
 
  1. As mentioned elsewhere, there won't be that many refugees - my working assumption is that most who cross the border are potential combatants who will be heading straight for Narvik as soon as they can.
  2. It isn't quite that rosy, but a shorter war generally means much less destruction.
  3. So far the knowledge of what the Italians are up to is pretty limited. Historians will work it out eventually, but not nay time soon.
  4. The Hungarians have made some progress, but the terrain is very badly against them so their value is pretty localised.
  5. Lots more atrocities than just the Operation Reinhardt camps. German behaviour in Poland was extremely bad, with something like 20% of the population being murdered one way or another. It isn't so bad here - the shorter war helping again - but still horrific. The majority of the 3 million Polish Jews murdered in OTL will still die, for instance.
  6. The Soviets occupied Klaipėda in about 12 hours - overwhelming force and very limited German forces present. They could certainly have taken more, but it would be a gamble and that really isn't like Stalin.
  7. The Japanese wrote off the Germans some time ago as a useful ally.


Not quite. Since the Soviets have replaced Italy in the TTL Tripartite Pact it's more of a non-aggression pact than an alliance.


Sunk or Sold:
  • Scharnhorst - sunk in Kiel 21st October 1940.
  • Gneisenau - constructive total loss 21st October 1940 - minimum 8x 1600 lb AP / 1000 lb SAP bomb hits plus major fire.
  • Bismarck - commissioned into the Red Banner Baltic Fleet as the Karl Marx 1st December 1940.
  • Tirpitz - sunk in shallow water while fitting out at Wilhelmshaven 21st October 1940 - minimum 8x 1600 lb AP hits.
  • Admiral Scheer - sunk by Illustrious, Gloucester and Nigeria 320 NM SW of Ceylon 13th April 1941.
  • Admiral Graf Spee - scuttled pre-POD, 17th December 1939.
  • Blücher - sunk before the butterflies could get to her, as OTL 9th April 1940 in Oslofjord.
  • Emden - sunk in shallow water at Wilhelmshaven, 21st October 1940.
  • Königsberg - sunk before the butterflies could get to her, as OTL 10th April 1940 in Bergen harbour.
  • Karlsruhe - sunk before the butterflies could get to her, as OTL 9th April 1940 off Kristiansand.
  • Köln - constructive total loss 21st October 1940 - 3 x 1,000 lb SAP hits and one near miss while in dry dock.
Afloat:
  • Graf Zeppelin - being used for timber storage in Gotenhafen as per OTL.
  • Lützow - tied up in Kiel, crew drafted into the Heer.
  • Admiral Hipper - tied up in Kiel, crew drafted into the Heer.
  • Prinz Eugen - tied up in Kiel, crew drafted into the Heer.
  • Leipzig - training ship tied up in Wilhelmshaven, never repaired after her bows were blown off 21st October 1940.
  • Nürnberg - training ship tied up in Kiel, never repaired after damage to her engine room 21st October 1940.
Is the 95% complete 4th Admiral Hipper class heavy cruiser Seydiltz still at Bremen? Or did it get sold to the Russians also? (OTL they did buy the 5th Admiral Hipper.)
 

Driftless

Donor
That seems unlikely. After their street fights against the Communists in pre-war Germany, why the would any hard core Nazi believe that surrendering to the Soviets would earn them anything other than a one-way ticket to a Siberian work camp?
Work camp vs gallows for some, maybe?
 

RyoSaeba69

Banned
I fear the worse for ITTL France in the long term. Neither rampant antisemitism nor the horribly dysfunctional nature of the 3rd Republic have been "purged" by the 1940 collapse followed by Vichy utter shame.
Wouldn't want to live in that one, even by 2020 OTL standards (which are hardly optimal).
 
In OTL prior to WW2 the Netherlands had been interested in building three battle cruisers similar to the Scharnhorst. The German invasion ended that idea. OTL, by the end of WW2 the Netherlands was in no shape to build up a navy, Japan was no longer a threat, and the Netherlands East Indies was well on its way to becoming Indonesia.
ITTL the Netherlands is still standing, Japan is still a threat, and the Netherlands is still in control of what is now Indonesia. Would the Netherlands be interested in two or three more-or-less ready to go Admiral Hipper class heavy cruisers? Keep in mind that in this time line Aircarft Carriers haven't had the opportunity to supplant Battleships as THE capital ships of a navy, so big gun surface ships still seem valuable.
 

HJ Tulp

Donor
In OTL prior to WW2 the Netherlands had been interested in building three battle cruisers similar to the Scharnhorst. The German invasion ended that idea. OTL, by the end of WW2 the Netherlands was in no shape to build up a navy, Japan was no longer a threat, and the Netherlands East Indies was well on its way to becoming Indonesia.
ITTL the Netherlands is still standing, Japan is still a threat, and the Netherlands is still in control of what is now Indonesia. Would the Netherlands be interested in two or three more-or-less ready to go Admiral Hipper class heavy cruisers? Keep in mind that in this time line Aircarft Carriers haven't had the opportunity to supplant Battleships as THE capital ships of a navy, so big gun surface ships still seem valuable.
I am sure that Furstner is positively salivating at the idea though it wouldn't surprise me if he would be aiming for more than that. Post-war budget problem may hamstring his efforts though.
 
Here is an updated situation map for 8 January. It is clear that, except for a few pockets, all organized German resistance has collapsed. Even the remaining pockets, except possibly Berlin, rely more on the Entente's logistical problems than on any strength of their defense. Here is a review of the situation from the German point of view as I see it.
  1. The bulk of the German 15th Army is likely immobile in the Wittenberge pocket and, with the capture of Stettin, is effectively surrounded. I suspect that there are few, if any, German formations in Pomerania east of the Oder River.
  2. The pocket in Berlin, being the capital, may still be able to put a strong defense for a day or two to preserve the national honor, but will probably quickly collapse if the British bring any serious pressure. Pdf27 has not mentioned how may German forces have been assembled in Berlin. Have the British moved in yet beyond the outer suburbs? Is there any active combat now going on in Berlin?
  3. I show the German 5th Army moving from southern Silesia to positions south of Berlin, but it is unlikely that they have manned anything stronger than roadblocks. In any case, the British 1st Army is not moving in their direction, so this may be sufficient to stabilize the line for the time being.
  4. The German 2nd Panzer Army is being pocketed southeast of Erfurt by the rapid movements of the British and French into Czechoslovakia. The 2nd Panzer Army, due to residual mechanized and motorized elements, probably has the highest mobility of any of the German forces (assuming they have been able husband some fuel supplies), but it will avail them of nothing.
  5. The German 6th Army is immobile and completely surrounded east of Giessen.
  6. The German 7th Army who had been guarding the east bank of the Rhine has retreated to the Black Forest and is now completely cut off from other German forces.
  7. There are likely to be few, if any, German forces in Bavaria, allowing the French 4th and 6th Armies to move at their will, limited only by their own logistics. Due to the rapidity of the French advance, I suspect that the Germans would have been unable to organize anything beyond a token defense for Munich, which should fall in a day or two. Depending on the locations, it is even possible that the French have captured Field Marshal Reichnau and the staff of OB West as well as Field Marshal Witzleben and the staff of Army Group C.
  8. The German 14th Army likely will use the current passivity of the Hungarians to shuttle forces to the west to defend Salzburg, but it will be insufficient to hold back the French for long.
  9. Similarly, the German 19th Army in Bohemia is likely shifting some troops to the west to counter the British and French penetrations into Sudetenland, but the liberation of Prague is now just a matter of time. The only question is who will get this prize first, the British 3rd Army, the French 1st Army, or the Czechoslovak 1st Army. I wouldn't be surprised if Ritchie and Prioux were ordered to hold short of Prague to allow Catlos to have the pride of liberating his capital.
  10. The German 3rd Army probably is the only remaining organized army in OB East. Due to the mass surrenders reported, the German 8th and 17th Armies now exist in name only.
  1. The reality is that the German army has almost completely collapsed - central command is essentially gone, and desertion rates are sky-high. It needs to be remembered that essentially the landsers have nothing left to fight for: the only victory they've had was Poland, Hitler has vanished, etc. - so morale is significantly lower than in OTL May 1945.
  2. Some combat, which makes it much more active than anywhere else. Essentially the few German units that are actually willing to fight are mostly in Berlin, while on the other hand the British have only assigned one Corps with limited petrol and ammunition supplies. There is also the distinct effect that nobody on the British side really wants to be the last man killed in the war, so the attacks are rarely pressed home once the Germans start shooting back.
  3. I would assume that no German units are going anywhere right now - no transport, virtually no communications and more opportunities to desert if you are travelling.
  4. Pretty sure 2nd Panzer is no better off than the others right now, unless they've managed to rig up some horse-drawn Panzer Is.
That seems unlikely. After their street fights against the Communists in pre-war Germany, why the would any hard core Nazi believe that surrendering to the Soviets would earn them anything other than a one-way ticket to a Siberian work camp?
Surrendering is for many of them close to a one-way ticket to execution, so there are probably some considering it. It won't help them though - they're a liability to the Soviets so will either be denied entry or be taken by the NKVD to be interrogated and liquidated. If that happens the Soviets will never admit to having let them in.

Is the 95% complete 4th Admiral Hipper class heavy cruiser Seydiltz still at Bremen? Or did it get sold to the Russians also? (OTL they did buy the 5th Admiral Hipper.)
Assume it's tied up pierside in Bremen as OTL.

Work camp vs gallows for some, maybe?
That's what a few are probably thinking. In reality it's gallows or 7.62mm brain hemorrhage for most of them.

I fear the worse for ITTL France in the long term. Neither rampant antisemitism nor the horribly dysfunctional nature of the 3rd Republic have been "purged" by the 1940 collapse followed by Vichy utter shame.
Wouldn't want to live in that one, even by 2020 OTL standards (which are hardly optimal).
People keep thinking this is an X-wank timeline. It isn't.

In OTL prior to WW2 the Netherlands had been interested in building three battle cruisers similar to the Scharnhorst. The German invasion ended that idea. OTL, by the end of WW2 the Netherlands was in no shape to build up a navy, Japan was no longer a threat, and the Netherlands East Indies was well on its way to becoming Indonesia.
ITTL the Netherlands is still standing, Japan is still a threat, and the Netherlands is still in control of what is now Indonesia. Would the Netherlands be interested in two or three more-or-less ready to go Admiral Hipper class heavy cruisers? Keep in mind that in this time line Aircarft Carriers haven't had the opportunity to supplant Battleships as THE capital ships of a navy, so big gun surface ships still seem valuable.
They're likely to be welcome to them - pretty sure everyone else is either not interested or can't afford to run anything that big (Norway).
 
I am sure that Furstner is positively salivating at the idea though it wouldn't surprise me if he would be aiming for more than that. Post-war budget problem may hamstring his efforts though.
Well there are still:
  • Graf Zeppelin - being used for timber storage in Gotenhafen as per OTL.
  • Lützow - tied up in Kiel, crew drafted into the Heer.
They can be thrown in to! Any Destroyers, Light Cruisers or Submarines available?
I don't think the issue of actually 'purchasing' them will come up. Reparations and all of that.
Not sure how expensive it would be to run them.

I don't think the British would object to the Netherlands getting them. At least not any surface ships. They are allies and they are not rivals. Would the French have any interest in obtaining them for themselves? I'm sure the three navies all have the same potential enemy in the Pacific in mind.
 
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