A Blunted Sickle - Thread II

Not sure on the Entente, it is mixed, keeps the Japanese and Soviets busy, but both the British (Hong Kong) and French (Northern edge of FIC) have areas which a stronger China might want...
That all depends on what you mean by a "strong" China - realistically they can achieve what they want by making it a bit stronger, but that is a world away from being a threat to their possessions.

Just curious, is the assumption that the Soviets have agents within the Entente Nuclear Weapon program the way they did in the Allied/American program iOTL? And would there be American or other (Italian?) agents within the program?
Quite limited compared to OTL:
  • Melita Norwood works for them as IOTL and would see enough for the Soviets to figure out that there was a bomb programme going on (budget, etc.) but not sufficient to share any technical details.
  • Klaus Fuchs is interned in Canada, due to concern over his Communist history.
  • Alan Nunn May hasn't been mentioned, if I had to guess I'd say that he will still be at Bristol because the heavy water reactor side of things is mostly francophone.
  • Donald Maclean is third secretary at the British Embassy in Paris.
  • Guy Burgess is working for the BBC as in OTL - with the end of the war imminent this is likely to be permanent.
  • Kim Philby is working for the Times as he was initially in OTL - without the Fall of France Burgess doesn't get the opportunity or justification to recruit him into Section D.
  • Anthony Blunt is still in the Intelligence Corps - he's already had a cameo appearance investigating German war crimes. As such he will never have had access to Ultra.
  • John Cairncross is Private Secretary to Baron Hankey, currently the Paymaster-General.
Just thinking from a British point of view, iTTL, on a line from Moscow to the Channel, the Soviets have gone from in 1938 from controlling about 1/4 of the way from Moscow to the Channel to post-war controlling about 1/3 of the way (using modern Polish/Belarussian borders, which are close, but not completely accurate to what is true iOTL.).

OTOH, iOTL, the Soviets have gone from in OTL the soviets have gone from in 1938 from controlling about 1/4 of the way from Moscow to the Channel to 2/3 of the way. (the OTL intergerman border).
That too.
 
Anthony Blunt is still in the Intelligence Corps - he's already had a cameo appearance investigating German war crimes. As such he will never have had access to Ultra.
I would think that Ultra might be of some use to war crimes investigators. I doubt that orders along the lines of "Go to X village and wipe it off the map," would have been passed along it, but general movement orders and reports of their completion would at least be able to establish whether or not a defendant's unit was in the area where a certain crime was committed. And if after-action reports were passed along Ultra, then that would also be of material use, especially if the report included items like 'X number of prisoners taken; Y number thereof being sent to the rear for processing," as the prosecutor would be able to demand that the defendant explain the reason for the discrepancy.
 

Starfox5

Donor
I would think that Ultra might be of some use to war crimes investigators. I doubt that orders along the lines of "Go to X village and wipe it off the map," would have been passed along it, but general movement orders and reports of their completion would at least be able to establish whether or not a defendant's unit was in the area where a certain crime was committed. And if after-action reports were passed along Ultra, then that would also be of material use, especially if the report included items like 'X number of prisoners taken; Y number thereof being sent to the rear for processing," as the prosecutor would be able to demand that the defendant explain the reason for the discrepancy.
They beat the Germans - they have access to all their paperwork.
 
No chance the occupation forces would permit that - they would regard it as the Reichswehr in glasses and a fake moustache. If the Kuomintang wants to recruit former soldiers to serve in China and offer them citizenship afterwards that would probably be accepted, conditional on renouncing their German citizenship, but any involvement by a German government would be totally unacceptable.
"Не важно, какого цвета кошка, пока она ловит мышей" (с) Пока компания, предоставляющая Гоминьдану наемников, имеет полностью прозрачную отчетность, а доходы от нее направляются на благо Германии, немцы будут более отзывчивы в вербовке. Возможно, выплата репараций или что-то в этом роде.

"Херр лейтенант, контракты компании "Звезда Удачи Лтд" имеют градации. Самый простой на 10 лет службы, далее 15, 20 и 25 лет. Подписав 10-летний договор, вы принесете фюр Дойчланд Х* гиней**. Контракт на 15 лет даст Германии 3Х гиней. Если вы выберете 20 лет службы, то в момент подписания договора Родина станет богаче на 6Х гиней. Самый длительный, 25-летний контракт, позволит вам сэкономить для страны целых 15Х гиней!"

*стоимость контракта определяется профессией, званием и опытом наемника. Лейтенант-танкист, лейтенант пехоты и лейтенант летного состава ВВС принесут Германии разные суммы.

**стоимость желательно привязать к золоту.
"It doesn't matter what color the cat is, as long as it catches mice" (C) As long as the company that provides the Kuomintang with mercenaries has fully transparent reporting, and the proceeds from it are directed to the benefit of Germany, the Germans will be more responsive in recruiting. Perhaps a payment of reparations or something like that.

"Herr Lieutenant, the company's contracts "lucky Star Ltd" have graduation. The simplest for 10 years of service, then 15, 20 and 25 years. By signing a 10-year contract, you will bring fur Deutschland X * guineas**. A 15-year contract will give Germany 3Х guineas. If you choose 20 years of service, then at the time of signing the contract, the Homeland will become richer by 6X guineas. The longest, 25-year contract, will save you as much as 15Х guineas for the country!"

* the cost of the contract is determined by the profession, rank and experience of the mercenary. A tank Lieutenant, an infantry Lieutenant, and an air force flight Lieutenant will bring different amounts to Germany.

**it is desirable to link the cost to gold.
 
That all depends on what you mean by a "strong" China - realistically they can achieve what they want by making it a bit stronger, but that is a world away from being a threat to their possessions.
Yea, no one is going to look at China in 1942 and say, “yep, by 1990 they’ll be a huge threat to our colonies in the area” as opposed to “yep, if we hand them some weapons and advisors they can make life difficult enough for the Japanese that they won’t turn south”. There might be a hint of “poor bastards, maybe with our help they can kick the Japanese out.”
 
Yea, no one is going to look at China in 1942 and say, “yep, by 1990 they’ll be a huge threat to our colonies in the area”
It's possible - FDR was convinced they were on the cusp of being a world power, and IOTL fought to get them permanent representation on the UN Security Council. But, for the Entente, prejudices might keep them from recognizing this.
 
"It doesn't matter what color the cat is, as long as it catches mice" (C) As long as the company that provides the Kuomintang with mercenaries has fully transparent reporting, and the proceeds from it are directed to the benefit of Germany, the Germans will be more responsive in recruiting.
I think what pdf27 means (subject to correction) is that what the German government (if such a thing actually exists in the first 10-20 years after the war), or the German people think about mercenaries, or "mercenaries", in China, does not matter in the slightest.
What matters is what the occupying powers think, and they think "no way, no how".

For them, Germany being linked, in any way, shape, or form, however directly or indirectly, with anything heavier than a local police force, is a no go, period.
From their point of view, Germany receiving money from a "private" company hiring "security forces" to a foreign government, is Germany playing tricks to keep the institutional knowledge to manage and operate an army, circumventing the whole point of the military occupation. That is way too close to the interwar Weimar tricks, and it will not fly with the Entente.

On the other hand, the Entente probably would have no objection if individual Germans former soldiers, who have commited no war crimes, hire themselves on their own initiative to a foreign government. For that matter, they probably would have no objection to China installing recruitment offices in Germany ...

Gwen
 

GarethC

Donor
On the other hand, the Entente probably would have no objection if individual Germans former soldiers, who have commited no war crimes, hire themselves on their own initiative to a foreign government.
...a foreign government like...

...France.

Vive la mort, vive la guerre, vive La Légion Étrangère!

The Foreign Legion OTL recruited significant numbers from Wehrmacht veterans, in some cases direct from POW camps - as had been the case after WW1 as well.

If there isn't a First Indochina War analogue ITTL then it seems quite likely that some of those soldiers would be free to end up in China.
 
I have some speculation on Egypt I'd like to share as I think that we are taking Nasser coming to power and the Suez crisis for granted.

In OTL the Wafd party were pro-democracy secular nationalists in Egypt that became a strong force during the inter-war years, However, in OTL 1942 there was a ministerial crisis in the Kingdom of Egypt which, combined with fear of a pro-Nazi government arising in Egypt, caused the British to insist with tanks that the King install the Wafd party as the Government. This resulted in a collapse in popular support for the Wafd party that cleared the room for the Arab Nationalists, such as Nasser, to take power.

With the War set to be over before February 1942 and other butterflies I think this could be avoided meaning the Wafd party could have more influence in Post War Egypt and the Arab nationalists might have less support there TTL.
 
I have some speculation on Egypt I'd like to share as I think that we are taking Nasser coming to power and the Suez crisis for granted.

In OTL the Wafd party were pro-democracy secular nationalists in Egypt that became a strong force during the inter-war years, However, in OTL 1942 there was a ministerial crisis in the Kingdom of Egypt which, combined with fear of a pro-Nazi government arising in Egypt, caused the British to insist with tanks that the King install the Wafd party as the Government. This resulted in a collapse in popular support for the Wafd party that cleared the room for the Arab Nationalists, such as Nasser, to take power.

With the War set to be over before February 1942 and other butterflies I think this could be avoided meaning the Wafd party could have more influence in Post War Egypt and the Arab nationalists might have less support there TTL.
I have never heard of this before. I think the important thing would be, what caused the ministerial crisis? Would it impact the next government or was it just that government.
Also has Farouk decided to invite in all those high ranking ex Nazi specialists and commanders to train his armies? that would really help things.
It should also help that their should be no disagreement over Italians being royal servants because Italy never entered the war.
 
I have never heard of this before. I think the important thing would be, what caused the ministerial crisis? Would it impact the next government or was it just that government.
Also has Farouk decided to invite in all those high ranking ex Nazi specialists and commanders to train his armies? that would really help things.
It should also help that their should be no disagreement over Italians being royal servants because Italy never entered the war.
Given the way the war has gone ITTL, I doubt there's going to be an enormous demand for German advisers. Certainly not like there was in OTL.
 
I have never heard of this before. I think the important thing would be, what caused the ministerial crisis? Would it impact the next government or was it just that government.
Also has Farouk decided to invite in all those high ranking ex Nazi specialists and commanders to train his armies? that would really help things.
It should also help that their should be no disagreement over Italians being royal servants because Italy never entered the war.
Bare in mind I only recently learned of this so I could be miss-understanding elements.

There were protests against the Egyptian government and members of the Cabinet offered their resignations. The Prime Minister at the time accepted the resignations but the King refused so there were questions over if they were still Ministers or not.

Edit

Given the way the war has gone ITTL, I doubt there's going to be an enormous demand for German advisers. Certainly not like there was in OTL.
Agreed.
 
(Under a month, not necro-ing, I hope and we've had gaps this long before...)

While there may not be the expectation that Germans are better Generals/Soldiers than the French or anyone else, there are a couple of reason that Germans are more likely to be hired by the Chinese.
1) With the *flood* of German Military Equipment being sent, the right speciality of German Soldier may be of particular use in *maintaining* these vehicles rather than the average French Soldier.
2) A German Soldier who considered himself "career" isn't going to have that option any more. The equivalent French Soldier will.

And a point that I found I actually brought up in 2017...

General Alexander von Falkenhausen is a German solider that the KMT might *particularly* want back. The Germans didn't hold enough of Belgium for long enough for him to be anything other than an Infantry General and his relationship with the Chinese was very, very good. (I'm sure there are others who can speak to whether or not it was better or worse than the relationship with Chennault, but my guess is that's comparing a 9.5 with a 9.7 on a scale from 1-10)

(Give Falkenhausen enough German equipment and enough Chinese manpower and the KMT might end up controlling Korea. :) )
 
(Under a month, not necro-ing, I hope and we've had gaps this long before...)

While there may not be the expectation that Germans are better Generals/Soldiers than the French or anyone else, there are a couple of reason that Germans are more likely to be hired by the Chinese.
1) With the *flood* of German Military Equipment being sent, the right speciality of German Soldier may be of particular use in *maintaining* these vehicles rather than the average French Soldier.
2) A German Soldier who considered himself "career" isn't going to have that option any more. The equivalent French Soldier will.

And a point that I found I actually brought up in 2017...

General Alexander von Falkenhausen is a German solider that the KMT might *particularly* want back. The Germans didn't hold enough of Belgium for long enough for him to be anything other than an Infantry General and his relationship with the Chinese was very, very good. (I'm sure there are others who can speak to whether or not it was better or worse than the relationship with Chennault, but my guess is that's comparing a 9.5 with a 9.7 on a scale from 1-10)

(Give Falkenhausen enough German equipment and enough Chinese manpower and the KMT might end up controlling Korea. :) )
while i'm sure the Chinese would like Falkenhausen back the French Foreign legion is also a popular destination for German soldiers just like in IRL maybe even more so as with the Japanese threat thier will be a large amount of them in Indochina and they probably pay more as well as being better equipped
 
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