A Blunted Sickle - Thread II

At the end of the war, I think that there are five powers in the world, that with 10 years of preparation, any pair of them could cause damage to a single one. US, Entente (WEU), USSR, Japan & Italy. Now some of the combinations are wierder than others (Italy/USSR vs USA?) but I think that's the general post war concept.

Also, in terms of the UK/FR supplying the KMT to hold down Japan, can Japan do the same to anti-colonizing forces in FIC and India ?
 
Also @pdf27

What have the NKVD been up to in Romania and Yugoslavia lately? Last I remember hearing, they had bombed Italian military canteens and railway carriages. Have they been caught or have they done something even worse?
 
Essentially so far the Entente are helping the US to ship in the aid which went to the KMT in OTL. With a war on, they simply don't have the capacity to send very much more.
After the war there is a great deal of scope for things to change, and a vast quantity of surplus or captured armaments to dispose of...
Sounds about right...

None of the Western, democratic powers have any reason to do anything except make Japan's occupation of China a nightmare. The UK has something of a China lobby that actively campaigns to help the Chinese as opposed to just screwing over Japan. The US has a very strong China lobby advocating almost anything short of war to get the Japanese out.

I guess the real question is how long Japan staves off complete economic collapse, and does it still decide to attack the DEI in the face of strong and better-prepared Western opposition. Obviously the USN is not what it will be IOTL, but here almost all of it is in the Pacific. Meanwhile, the RN and MN between them have... what, roughly 6X the fleet strength in Malaya and FIC compared to OTL?

My guess is that the IJN is able to get enough cooperation from the civilian authorities and the Emperor to come out on top of the factional struggle sometime between 1943 and 1945. It's clear to them that they can't fight the Entente and US and win, and the economic costs of the embargoes and occupation are crippling the country.

With that supremacy they're able to start withdrawing to the actual useful and productive bits they've taken in China, namely Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Beijing/Tianjin. Lots of happy assassinations but eventually they manage it... only to find that they're still at war with the ROC and the West still hates them.

Then what? Dunno.
 
So, it will be very interesting to see just how the RN is going to deal with its CV situation. Assuming that Japanese do not take the plunge, British should have 9 Fleet CVs by '45/'46, once Implacable and Audacious CVs enter into service. Everything older then Ark Royal is likely to end up scrapped, and these existing CVs should be able to see the British through until the late '60ies at least, presuming that they are sufficiently modernized and kept in good condition. I am unsure about Ark Royal however, by the time substantial refits (like angled flight deck) become neccesary, she is going to be the oldest of the lot, and she might as well end up scrapped too, if only to free up manpower for the rest. It is quite sobering once you realize just how many men are needed to crew a single Fleet CV. IOTL, HMS Victorious after her refit needed 2,200 crew, Implacables needed 2,300 as built, while Audaciouses required 2,700 or so. Let us say that they go and keep all 8 newest CVs, and modernize them as well. 4 Illustrious CVs, if we take OTL Victorious as a benchmark, would require 8,800 in total. The other two CV classes are a bit more tricky, since one was never modernized IOTL, and anothers design is different ITTL, but let us put the number of men required to 2,500 men per CV. That is a grand total of 18,800 crew just for the Carriers, and there is still quite a bit of a Navy to crew. Just how many CVs are British going to be able to actually afford to man, especially as the manpower is lost due to war ending, and Wartime conscripts leave the Navy? It also raises the question of what exactly is the FAA going to fly off them, that is, what is going to be actually able to operate of these CVs, considering that many od them will be very much limited in heaight of their hangars.
 
That is a grand total of 18,800 crew just for the Carriers, and there is still quite a bit of a Navy to crew. Just how many CVs are British going to be able to actually afford to man, especially as the manpower is lost due to war ending, and Wartime conscripts leave the Navy?
For a bit of scale the 1936 Naval Estimates allowed for just under 100,000 personnel in the Royal Navy and that was before any real defence build up and before the FAA transferred across (so all the aircrew and air support staff were counted in the RAF manning totals). If you assume the older un-modernised QE and 'R' battleships get retired/sent to reserve and not replaced that free ups 1,300 crew a time, roughly the same figure for each of the older conversion carriers as well. I'd also assume a lot of destroyers and older cruisers can return to the Reserve Fleet, no need to cover convoys or patrol the Atlantic, and that will also free up manpower if required.

Overall, it's not a massive number. It will require an increase over the 1930s navy strength to be sure, but not by a crazy amount.

What goes in the hangars is a more interesting question, without the panics of wartime there are some interesting options.
 
Then what? Dunno.
Идиоты непредсказуемы, это так *нервно вздрагивает, перечитывая предысторию взрыва в Бейруте*

Idiots are unpredictable, it's so.
*shudders nervously, rereading the background to the Beirut bombing*
 
Last edited:
Therefore I think that the building blocks for a Romanian, Yugoslavian and Hungarian alliance have been in place for around a year and a half in TTL terms.
Building blocks, yes. It'll be a very long term thing though, and nobody is thinking that far in advance yet.

Uh-hmm... London and Paris think they can re-educate the Germans into something less Prussian and significantly less militaristic, but they don't think they can educate Austrians / Bavarians / Hanoverians / rhinelanders / brandenburgers who hate each other only slightly less than their shared hatred of the Prussians who got them into two world wars?
No, but they do think that if they occupy Germany for a century or so during which time no Germany is allowed anything more dangerous than a shotgun they won't pose a threat to them. The problem with splitting the country up is that it doesn't solve the occupation problem - and if you're going to occupy it anyway then splitting it up doesn't really get you anything.
Austria I could see being a different case - it wasn't part of Germany for very long, and there is a convenient figurehead they could use with the right sort of views.

Also, in terms of the UK/FR supplying the KMT to hold down Japan, can Japan do the same to anti-colonizing forces in FIC and India ?
Indochina is feasible if tricky - Giáp is in exile in China at the moment but will probably return at some point, and the Japanese could supply arms if they decided to (that's the hard part of things - it doesn't really fit with the way the Japanese think).
India is almost impossible - Congress is part of the government, independence is on the way and they would be limited to low-level smuggling by the sheer distance from their own territory. At best they could make the existing banditry problems a little worse, but that's about it.

What have the NKVD been up to in Romania and Yugoslavia lately? Last I remember hearing, they had bombed Italian military canteens and railway carriages. Have they been caught or have they done something even worse?
Not much - the Italian security has improved and they're under very strict instructions not to get caught.

I guess the real question is how long Japan staves off complete economic collapse, and does it still decide to attack the DEI in the face of strong and better-prepared Western opposition. Obviously the USN is not what it will be IOTL, but here almost all of it is in the Pacific. Meanwhile, the RN and MN between them have... what, roughly 6X the fleet strength in Malaya and FIC compared to OTL?
Rather more than that: 3 QEs (Queen Elizabeth, Valiant, Warspite - the three modernised ones), 2 Nelrods, all 5 KGVs, Jean Bart, Richelieu and 5 carriers (Ark Royal, Illustrious, Formidable, Victorious, Indomitable) plus appropriate supporting arms (cruisers, destroyers, submarines, etc.), all commanded by ABC. Crudely it's about an order of magnitude more combat power than in OTL.

My guess is that the IJN is able to get enough cooperation from the civilian authorities and the Emperor to come out on top of the factional struggle sometime between 1943 and 1945. It's clear to them that they can't fight the Entente and US and win, and the economic costs of the embargoes and occupation are crippling the country.
I could see that happening. What I struggle with is the IJA actually accepting being told this by an emperor "being held captive" by the IJN. In that scenario I could see two countries named Japan - one in the Home Islands dominated by the IJN, and one in Manchuria dominated by the Army. The latter would essentially be a rather better than average armed set of Chinese warlords in all but name.

Just how many CVs are British going to be able to actually afford to man, especially as the manpower is lost due to war ending, and Wartime conscripts leave the Navy?
Ultimately that will depend on what they see the threat to be. In OTL 1945 the RN was the second largest navy on earth. The largest belonged to a close ally, and the third largest was... the Royal Canadian Navy. In those circumstances huge cutbacks are inevitable.
Here, Japan is seen as a peer naval threat (particularly once they find out about the Yamato class), the USN is much smaller and less friendly, and the Soviets are up to something.

It also raises the question of what exactly is the FAA going to fly off them, that is, what is going to be actually able to operate of these CVs, considering that many of them will be very much limited in height of their hangars.
They'll be fine for a while - the Sea Hawk for instance would have no problems - but eventually they will need a Victorious-style rebuild or new carriers.

If you assume the older un-modernised QE and 'R' battleships get retired/sent to reserve and not replaced that free ups 1,300 crew a time, roughly the same figure for each of the older conversion carriers as well. I'd also assume a lot of destroyers and older cruisers can return to the Reserve Fleet, no need to cover convoys or patrol the Atlantic, and that will also free up manpower if required.
They've essentially already gone - paid off, sold off or in one case sunk. Even the modernised QEs and the NelRods aren't likely to last that much longer - Lion and Temeraire are still building, and once they commission the treasury will be looking for savings.

Idiots are unpredictable, it's so.
*shudders nervously, rereading the background to the Beirut bombing*
One of the reasons an alliance with the Japan of the time is a bad idea for anybody, if the Japanese would even sign it.
 
did stalin ever have designs on keeping manchuria? He wanted a western buffer due to the second German attack (that didn't happen here). Concurrently he readily gave up manchuria after the Japanese defeat. To me its actually the wrong choice, I would have done the opposite aside from some bases in Poland. But thats hindsight talking. If I was stalin itl I'd consider joining a war with Japan over the war with Germany. Buy some goodwill by giving up most of the Poland he captured, then use that goodwill to join the bout with Japan and take manchuria.
 
did stalin ever have designs on keeping manchuria? He wanted a western buffer due to the second German attack (that didn't happen here). Concurrently he readily gave up manchuria after the Japanese defeat. To me its actually the wrong choice, I would have done the opposite aside from some bases in Poland. But thats hindsight talking. If I was stalin itl I'd consider joining a war with Japan over the war with Germany. Buy some goodwill by giving up most of the Poland he captured, then use that goodwill to join the bout with Japan and take manchuria.
Did Stalin want Manchuria? Probably the Northern part, makes Vladivostok a lot better, Southern part had too many Chinese to be annexed. Was Stalin going to pay the price , No. He wanted the Chinese Communists to win the civil war and that would not happen if it was seen as letting China be dismantled. The Allies would see it as a hostile act as well but Stalin already believed they would turn on him so that would not be a major concern.
 
Only the 9 x 16" KGV version, not the monsters they later evolved into. Guard's Van has gone for good however.
Are Clemenceau and Gascoigne still building in France? After all Italy has/will shortly have 4 modern battleships and there are the Soviets to consider as well...
 
Mirage IVC? Just saying...
No.
Let me only note that I'm talking of Mirage IVC not IVA or IVB. Unlike the last two which were bombers IVC was a Phantom class fighter, with both two engines and single engine variants. I'd expect something like Phantom will be needed and bluntly I trust Dassault much more than any alternative to build one.
 
Are Clemenceau and Gascoigne still building in France? After all Italy has/will shortly have 4 modern battleships and there are the Soviets to consider as well...
Nope - Clemenceau was broken up on the stocks in May 1941 and Gascogne was cancelled at the same time.

Let me only note that I'm talking of Mirage IVC not IVA or IVB. Unlike the last two which were bombers IVC was a Phantom class fighter, with both two engines and single engine variants. I'd expect something like Phantom will be needed and bluntly I trust Dassault much more than any alternative to build one.
To mix metaphors, far too many butterflies have flowed under the bridge by that time for the same aircraft to exist. Additionally, industry develops very differently which puts Dassault in a very different place compared to many of their possible competitors.
 
One of the reasons an alliance with the Japan of the time is a bad idea for anybody, if the Japanese would even sign it.
Как мне кажется, было бы проще позволить японскому флоту... эм-мм... оздоровить командование японской армии. 460 мм снарядами. По крайней мере, по сравнению с созданием хоть сколько-то боеспособных сил из того, что "верные" Гоминьдану полевые командиры считают войсками.

В таком случае... Демилитаризацию Германии можно начать с возобновления старого, очень старого и незаслуженно забытого немецкого народного промысла. Исторически, когда немецкому князю было абсолютно нечем торговать, он торговал наемниками. Германия продает своих отборных наемников Чан Кай Ши на долгий контракт - скажем, лет на десять. Новое миролюбивое немецкое правительство получает деньги. Отборные пруссаки и не способные к мирной жизни милитаристы получают возможность начать новую жизнь где-то очень далеко от Европы ("И не возвращайтесь!"). Правительство Гоминьдана получает боеспособные подразделения "Зеленого знамени" и инструкторов для ополчения "Восьми знамен", которое до этого прикидывалось их армией. Все в выигрыше, кроме японцев и коммунистов, но их можно не считать.

Проблем с Америкой, без бреттон-вудской системы и в обстоятельствах доминирования изоляционистов, Антанта не предвидит. Ну, хорошо. Сочетание изоляционизма с доктриной Монро и газетными воплями "английские атомные бомбы у наших границ!"... Гм. Кто там у нас на очередных выборах крайний? И есть ли у него в программе местечко для нескольких новых пунктов, посвященных борьбе с анти-демократической, а значит и анти-американской колониальной системой...

I think it would be easier to let the Japanese Navy... em-mm... improve the command of the Japanese army. 460 mm shells. At least compared to creating at least a certain number of combat-ready forces from the fact that "loyal" to the KMT commanders believe the troops.

In that case... The demilitarization of Germany can begin with the resumption of an old, very old and undeservedly forgotten German folk craft. Historically, when the German Prince had absolutely nothing to sell, he sold mercenaries. Germany sells its handpicked mercenaries to Chiang Kai-shek for a long contract - say, ten years. The new peace-loving German government gets the money. Selected Prussians and militarists who are not capable of peaceful life are given the opportunity to start a new life somewhere far, very far from Europe ("And do not return!"). The Kuomintang government receives combat-ready "Green banner" units and instructors for the "Eight banners" militia, which previously pretended to be their army. Everyone wins, except the Japanese and the Communists, but they can't be counted.


The Entente does not foresee problems with America, without the Bretton-Woods system and under the circumstances of isolationist domination. Well. The combination of isolationism with the Monroe doctrine and newspaper cries of "British atomic bombs at our borders!" ... Hm. Who is there in our next election extreme? And whether he has room in the program for several new items dedicated to the fight against the anti-democratic, and therefore anti-American colonial system...
 
Last edited:
TTL many french manufacturers will survive the war that will have an impact in the future. Maybe otl brand in turn won't survive or face more competition.
 
Top