1991 LA governorship race under ranked-choice voting

. . . Could Roemer have won? . . .
In your judgment, would Buddy Roemer — who finished third in OTL — be the Sports Illustrated cover photo for the potential success of rank-ordered voting?

I mean, as a centrist candidate who would likely receive positive approval ratings from the largest number of citizens (actually the largest majority if approval voting was used)?
 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Louisiana_gubernatorial_election

What if instead of the "jungle primary" of OTL, the race had been held under ranked-choice voting?

Could Roemer have won? Having switched ro the GOP, he might be the second choice of many Duke voters, and of course many Edwards voters (especially Blacks) would have preferred him to Duke. (Interesting that Roemer and Edwards died within a couple of months of each other...)

But isn't the problem he was in third to begin with? So it's really a question of who Roemer voters would've chosen as their second choice, and in that case I think it's clear it was Edwards
 
But isn't the problem he was in third to begin with? So it's really a question of who Roemer voters would've chosen as their second choice, and in that case I think it's clear it was Edwards
Someone who is in third place so far as first-choice voters are concerned can still win--Garcia almost did in NYC.
 
Someone who is in third place so far as first-choice voters are concerned can still win--Garcia almost did in NYC.

Right, but if we assume the OTL results

Edwards ... 33.76
Duke ... 31.71
Roemer ... 26.51 (-5.2)
Holloway ... 5.34

Roemer would need to take basically all of Holloway's second place rankings. Holloway did not endorse Edwards or Duke in the general, and he hit Roemer hard in the initial race on the issue of abortion. Combining his attacks on Roemer with the fact he wasn't willing to endorse the KKK candidate's opponent... it seems to me Holloway voters aren't likely to put Roemer down as their second choice en masse. Sure, he may get the majority of them -- 3? but I think enough would put Duke as their second (or leave blank) to deny Roemer the chance to overtake Duke

Though I agree with your premise that in a RCV situation where Roemer can overcome Duke, he goes on to overcome Edwards and win, it basically requires Roemer winning an overwhelming number of second choice votes from Holloway and the other 2.67% of voters who picked obscure candidates (most of whom were Democrats, so they probably split something like 50-50 between Roemer and Edwards.

If Duke got closer to 27-29% of the vote, and there was a more clearly centrist candidate in the race who garnered something like 8-10% of the vote, I think you'd see the dynamics there for Roemer to pick up enough second choice votes. I just think if the first round resembles what it did IOTL, then there probably aren't enough votes in the bottom tier of candidates for Roemer to overtake Duke and then go on to beat Edwards.
 
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