Tsarist Russia survives

[ShadowCommunist2009]

But my answer to the opening post and my feeling is that if Lenin had failed, if the Russian Revolution had failed, Nicholas would have remained on the Russian Throne for the rest of his life which could have lasted into the early 1950's.

The February Revolution succeeds--hence the mentions of Karensky and the "return" of the Romanovs to the throne. The old succession laws were thrown out when the position of the Tsar was dissolved by Karensky and the provisional government, and truth be told, Nicholas was not ready for the throne which explains his overly-protective nature (the family was his escape), his bungling in handling WWI (he was never taught how to fight a war), and his general feeling of ineptitude (he had big shoes to fill after Alexander III). This is why, after the Romanovs are returned ITTL, that Olga is handed the crown. Nicholas is unfit, Alexei is a liability in a rebellious Russia (remember--the Tsars liked to tour the battle grounds and Alexei was a hemophiliac. Plus, victorian medicine said stress could bring on hemophiliac attacks, so the stress of ruling a nation would probably have been more than Alexei could bear according to medical texts of the time), Tatiana is too interested in growing up to be like her mother, and Anastasia is still just a child. The only "direct" heir would be Olga in this sense. In the revised timeline I'm working on and will be posting later on, the brothers of Nicholas have been killed and so are out of the picture.

I've taken a lot of the comments you have all offered and the new timeline is radically different, with Olga and her husband coming to power under a military coup and ruling like the Perons, and a 9-year Russian civil war preceding this event, Western European civil wars bringing Communism to bear in France and Germany (Independent Bavaria! Woo!) and the creation of la Grandiose République or Grand Commonwealth (literally, Grand Republic)--a pseudo Western-European USSR centered in Paris.

I hope the new timeline (when I finish it) is more palatable than my blunders above.

 

[DoleScum]

I'm guessing the same thing some of the other WWI Eurpean allies did. They punished Germany for causing WWI and forced Germany to pay them war reperations. They took those reperation payments and used them to pay off their war debts. I'm guessing the Russian Tsars would have done much the same thing.that we today would have a very different world.

Interesting....

So this potentially places an even greater burden on Germany after 1919. It would also be interesting to speculate how effective a surviving Franco-German alliance would have been a policing Europe after WW1.

The addition of Russia to the LON would have given the organisation some teeth and i'm guessing Russia would be keen on maintaining the status quo in eastern Europe which would have made a Tsartist Russia hugely influential.

Could we have seen Russia occupying parts of eastern German (Koeingsburg in particular) in tandem with France's occupation of the Rhineland in 24?

 

[Verence]

Quite good. I love Russian ATLs.

I'm working on one where the events of China after the overthrow of the Empire are transposed to Russia post-1917. Kerensky=Sun Yat-Sen, Zhukov=Chiang Kai-Shek and all the various White Generals=Chinese Warlords. The Romanovs are killed during the July Days of 1917 OTL leading to the death of leading Bolshies and the party splits up.........

 

[The_Leader]

The February Revolution succeeds--hence the mentions of Karensky and the "return" of the Romanovs to the throne. The old succession laws were thrown out when the position of the Tsar was dissolved by Karensky and the provisional government, and truth be told, Nicholas was not ready for the throne which explains his overly-protective nature (the family was his escape), his bungling in handling WWI (he was never taught how to fight a war), and his general feeling of ineptitude (he had big shoes to fill after Alexander III). This is why, after the Romanovs are returned ITTL, that Olga is handed the crown. Nicholas is unfit, Alexei is a liability in a rebellious Russia (remember--the Tsars liked to tour the battle grounds and Alexei was a hemophiliac. Plus, victorian medicine said stress could bring on hemophiliac attacks, so the stress of ruling a nation would probably have been more than Alexei could bear according to medical texts of the time), Tatiana is too interested in growing up to be like her mother, and Anastasia is still just a child. The only "direct" heir would be Olga in this sense. In the revised timeline I'm working on and will be posting later on, the brothers of Nicholas have been killed and so are out of the picture.

I've taken a lot of the comments you have all offered and the new timeline is radically different, with Olga and her husband coming to power under a military coup and ruling like the Perons, and a 9-year Russian civil war preceding this event, Western European civil wars bringing Communism to bear in France and Germany (Independent Bavaria! Woo!) and the creation of la Grandiose République or Grand Commonwealth (literally, Grand Republic)--a pseudo Western-European USSR centered in Paris.

I hope the new timeline (when I finish it) is more palatable than my blunders above.

While this is going on Where to expect his younger brother Grand Duke Michael and half brother Grand Duke Paul will just sit back and not try to assert or even claim that they are entitled to the throne the there neice???

 

[alphaboi867]

While this is going on Where to expect his younger brother Grand Duke Michael and half brother Grand Duke Paul will just sit back and not try to assert or even claim that they are entitled to the throne the there neice???

In OTL Michael refused to accept the throne after Nicholas II abdicated. Does the POD have to be after Nicholas abdicated? What if around 1916 he realized that his son might never live long enough to have issure and still wanting his descendants to rule he could have simply issued a new house law enabling his daughters to succeed in the absence of a son. He was an absolute monarch after all. There would have been no basis to challenge Olga then.

 

[arctic warrior]

Another major butterfly that I realized wasn't addressed is the blatant annexation of Saarland by the French. If memory serves, (and this could just be me imagining things) didn't Saarland gain independence from France through a plebiscite during the unification of Germany under Prussia, thus setting a precident against French occupation of the territory?

Germany was forced to leave Saarland independent after WWI. It was heavily industrialized and France saw it as a major contributer to German armament industry. After 15 years, 1935 it was allowed to vote for reunification with Germany, which it did.
I don't recall Saarland being ceded by France to Germany during the unification. As far as I've been able to look up it has been part of Germany for many years.

 

[Max Sinister]

It became independent twice, once after every World War (what a coincidence). After some years, they'd have a plebiscite whether to stay independent, join France or Germany. Twice they voted for Germany.

 

[Stalker]

ShadowCommunist2009 A fantastic map! I wonder, what program did you use to draw it?Concerning the Timeline itself, after I've got acquanted with it in more details, I'll post my opinion on it. Being the member of Russian forum of Alternate hhistory, I can say even more that your TL provoked a great interest of my colleagues on Russian forum. So, be prepared for certain portion of constructive criticism. ;-)))

 

[ShadowCommunist2009]

I stole Whiterabbit's basemap from the blank map thread, updated the borders to what they were in 1917, and proceeded from there. The color scheme is my own and based on a 19th century map of Palestine of my father's.

I welcome constructive criticism of the Russian forum with open arms! Weeee! I'm not where I need to be concerning Russian history (especially post Catherine the Great, pre-Soviet Union) to be doing a TL of this scope, but I'm hoping my second timeline will provoke similar interest and perhaps some merging between the two will occur. My second TL is up to 1946 now, and the League of Nations has just been founded as an anti-Communist bloc rather than a forum for peaceful coexistence. I'm trying to avoid any "cold war" scenario, but I'm having a VERY hard time doing so. The reaction to Communism is just so all-encompassing that I do not believe in any TL short of world-wide revolution would the Cold War be prevented. So I'm working with it as best I can. It should be up (at least in part) sometime next week. I'm in the process of moving out of the dorms and going back home, so that'll take up most of my time currently.

 

[stevep]

ShadowCommunist2009

A few quick comments. I know your rewriting this so some of them may be obsolete.

a) I think some of the carve up in eastern Europe and the ME is unlikely. As someone else said, after the massacres by the Turks they are the last people the Armenians would turn to for aid. [Unless attacked by a Draka equivalent, just possibly]. In that circumstance I would expect the Armenians to turn to the Russians to get both Turks and Persians off their back.

b) Ditto with the greater Serbia/Yugoslavia and especially with the absorption of Bulgaria. The two states were bitter enemies so not only would it be very unlikely to see a Bulgarian welcome for the Serbs, given the history of the region there would probably be some pretty nasty massacres.

c) If we assume someone like Hitler appears, or even him in person:
i) Germany would not have the resources to manage such a long war against Russia, especially since the latter without Lenin and the Bolsheviks would be a lot stronger.
ii) Given they have the war in the east what the hell is Hitler doing attacking the western powers. Under those circumstances Britain and France would be amongst his biggest supporters to restrain this powerful and aggressive Russia.

d) As said, barring something very very dramatic the USA of the time would not be willing to support anyone attacked other than its own territories. If anything the Us would very likely be giving at least some political support to the Germans and their allies against Russia.

I think there are some interesting options for a Tsarist Russia surviving WWI, either as a continued autocracy or a more constitutional monarchy. However a lot depends on what happens just about everywhere and the complex interactions of the modern world. As I said above such a Russia can be much stronger than the Soviet one for two main reasons. It avoids the mass bloodshed and incompetence that resulted from Soviet rule and is virtually unavoidable in any absolute state. Also such a state, while with poor diplomatic leadership may be seen as threatening by many others won't be the pariah that Soviet Russia was.

Steve

 

[Stalker]

1918 Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan erupt in anti-Russian revolution. Desperate to maintain Russian hegemony, Karensky signs an armistice with Germany and diverts Russian arms to the Caucasus.

In 1918 Alexander Feodorovich Kerensky would have not been a Prime-minister of the Provisiona Government in any case because in January Constituent Assembly would have taken place in any case. The above Assembly would constitute the future of Mother-Russia whether She would become a constitutional monarchy or Repubic, or even return to absolutism (and Great Duke Michael is the best option for it! ). Even Bolshevicks in ATL didn't dare stop the Congress from opening but then provoked its dissolution what caused the beginning of White movement and start of Civil war in Russia. And you forget Centra Rada in Kiev that negotiates the Ukrainian autonomy within Russia but is ready to revolt and invite Germans to guard its territory in exchange of Ukrainian bread.

1921 Tsarina Olga Nicholaevna orders the execution of Lenin.
A border dispute between Georgia and Turkey leads to Russian interference on the side of Turkey. The Russo-Georgian war begins..

It's unikely. Russian Empire is NOT USSR. So, unlike our ATL, there's a compete antagonism with the regime of Young Turks. Even weak, Russia wi NOT negotiate the status of christian Armenia and Georgia with Turks. The only thing that weak Russia can yield to Turkey is Nachigevan Region and probaby some parts of Azerbaijan. Not Baku. Other options are war options. Turkey is weak. No chances to make so vast territorial acquisitions by means of war? seriously.

1922 Armenia rebels against Persia and signs a declaration of annexation by Turkey, extending Turkey’s borders.

And THIS happens after 1915 massacre? Armenians have so short memories? That's competely inacceptable!

1923 The Weimar Republic signs a mutual pact of non-aggression with Russia.

What are the reasons for Russia to sign such a treaty with the completely ruined country that is no threat to anybody?

 

[Verence]

Suppose Nicholas II died in the early 1950's at around age 83. Would Alexei have survived and come to the throne?

I suppose it depends what treatments there were for Alexei's hemophilia. If Nicholas does dies in the 1950 and Alexei dies before him, then I would have thought that the throne would pass to Nicholas' cousin Grand Duke Kyril Romanov (1876-1992 OTL) and thence onto his son Grand Duke Vladimir Romanov (1917-1992 OTL)

 

[Stalker]

I suppose it depends what treatments there were for Alexei's hemophilia. If Nicholas does dies in the 1950 and Alexei dies before him, then I would have thought that the throne would pass to Nicholas' cousin Grand Duke Kyril Romanov (1876-1992 OTL) and thence onto his son Grand Duke Vladimir Romanov (1917-1992 OTL)

Doubtful. Bacause your opinion is too stereotypic.
Read this link:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Duke_Cyril_Vladimirovich_of_Russia
Cyrill was able to top the dynasty starecase only after murder of Nicholas II's family by Boshevicks in Yekaterinburg in 1918 and murder of Great Duke Michael and his relatives. Michael is most likey candidate for the Russian throne. There's a whole lot of variations dedicated to eary death or abdication of Nicholas II that received general title "The world of Czar Michael" in the Russian Aternate History Forums. They all are based on the fact that unlike "Poor Nicky" , Michael was a very strong and stubborn personality and thus construct the worlds with a very strong, infuential and rich Russian Empire surviving till now... The start of these worlds was initiated by the AH-novel by Russian co-authors V. Serebryakov and A. Ulanov From America With Love. D'ya catch the allusion?

 

[Doctor Haider]

Greetings to all the respected community!

I am another member of the same russian ahistorical forum as the colleguae Stalker

I am truly do not understand why Olga becomes the heir. The official successor of the deceased Alexey is the Grand Duke Michael Romanov, the Nicholas' brother.

Why he didn't become the Imperor? To be honest I haven't cath the reason.

 

[das]

Am also from the Russian Althist forum (though I used to frequent this forum as well several months ago). IMHO barring a later restoration scenario, Tsarist Russia's last chance of SURVIVING was with Michael not abdicating in 1917. I understand that what you are going for in the revised timeline is just such a restoration after a White victory in the Civil War?

 

[Rat Catcher]

I am from Russian forum too. One of creator and organiser of World of Tzar Michael. ;-)
Well, it depends of POD. Establish POD. If POD is after February Revolution - any male Romanov can reach throne. I am sure it won't be Nicolay and I am not sure it will be Michael - they both abdicated the crown in February 1917. According to the low they have no right now.

Som what is the situation, as I anderstand. Generals want to restore monarchy. I don't think there will be a chance for Kyrill due to his behavour during first days of February Revolution (he immediately recognized insurgents as a new goverment). So, generals will choose just someone from Romanovs. I advice to pay your attention to Grand Duke Dmitriy Pavlovich - he was popular in monarchic sections of society.

 

[Verence]

I am from Russian forum too. One of creator and organiser of World of Tzar Michael. ;-)

Som what is the situation, as I anderstand. Generals want to restore monarchy. I don't think there will be a chance for Kyrill due to his behavour during first days of February Revolution (he immediately recognized insurgents as a new goverment). So, generals will choose just someone from Romanovs. I advice to pay your attention to Grand Duke Dmitriy Pavlovich - he was popular in monarchic sections of society.

How about Grand Duke Nikolai Nikolaivich Romanov?

 

[Verence]

I'm working on one where the events of China after the overthrow of the Empire are transposed to Russia post-1917. Kerensky=Sun Yat-Sen, Zhukov=Chiang Kai-Shek and all the various White Generals=Chinese Warlords. The Romanovs are killed during the July Days of 1917 OTL leading to the death of leading Bolshies and the party splits up.........

What do you new folks think of this???

 

[Verence]

Doubtful. Bacause your opinion is too stereotypic.

To be fair my knowledge of Russian history isn't as good as it could be

 

[Verence]

I am from Russian forum too. One of creator and organiser of World of Tzar Michael. ;-)

Is this Russian althist forum availlable in English and if so is there a link to it?