1994- EZLN command structure is located through bribery of the newspapers that publish them and some (possibly US assisted) bushwork. In January of 1994, a Mexican helicopter gunship in Chiapas strafes and kills Subcommander Marcos and about a dozen other EZLN fighters. Kill is confirmed by Mexican Army regulars.
EZLN, in outrage, begins more radical actions. Suspected contact with the FARC and possibly financial support out of the newly released Hugo Chavez and his MVR movement later in the year spurs military action.
1995- Violence intensifies in Chiapas. Mexican Army embarrassed when several soldiers defect and aid ambushes on Mexican Army troops. Clinton issues a condemnation of the Zapatistas. But the US does see some effect as the chicano movement is encouraged in the Southern United States. The US classifies the Zapatistas as a terrorist group after the Mexican government claims they have killed negotiators. Zapatistas deny the allegations and continue their insurgency.
The Zapatista movement spreads outside Chiapas and into major cities. Mexican Army incapacitated by violent and non-violent protest. Mexican Army declares martial law in all effected areas and promises to punish any media publishing EZLN declarations.
The turning point comes when Mexican oilfields are seized in a daring raid in December. Among them are several American consultants. US demands they be released while some protest that this group has nothing to do with the EZLN and is likely FARC attempting to instigate conflict. The raiders say they will release the hostages on the condition that US halt all trade effected by NAFTA and remain neutral.
Clinton, knowing the election is coming up, does what he hopes will encourage US voters. US Navy SEALS are sent in and free all hostages, except for a Mexican and American who were hit by a ricocheting slug of unknown origin and a Zapatista bullet, respectively. The US, outraged, makes a joint statement with the Mexican government that they will classify the Zapatistas as terrorists and sends over 3,000 US SPECFOR and soldiers into Mexico to assist Federal troops.
1996- US troops are deployed into Chiapas and the surrounding territories, using Mexican intelligence agents to pinpoint targets for precision strikes. Laser-Guided Bombs are dropped in the dozens during the initial days of the strike, while US Army Rangers hunt down Zapatistas in the brush. The US Army is very successful despite some warning that the jungles of Chiapas could become 'a new Vietnam'.
In retaliation, Zapatistas encourage Chicano groups to revive the brown berets. They cross the border and in three coordinated strikes, body-armored, assault rifle toting men seize a Bank and shopping mall in the Los Angeles area. The LAPD's intial response teams are shredded to pieces at the bank, where, using two hostages as a shield, an unknown man used a belt-fed machinegun to destroy entire patrol cars. The LAPD SWAT was called in, and in a coordinated sniper and assault team strike, killed all 5 of the terrorists. However, the massive automatic weapon crossfire resulted in the deaths of 3 hostages. At the shopping mall, the attack was a bit more successful, though had a much more profound psychological impact. TV crews and security cameras recorded chilling images: polished tiles smeared with the blood of rent-a-cops, armed gunmen exchanging shots with the LAPD, and hostages screaming for their lives. No hostages were killed though a police officer lost his life when a high-powered .308 bullet hit him in the head. In his honor the 'Schumaker Bill' was passed by Californian legislation, adding several thousand assault rifles to the inventories of border-city Police Departments.
Meanwhile, the US began an extensive campaign to track down and prosecute those involved in the logistics and planning of the act. FBI agents stormed the barrios, though two suspects (including a drug-lord who'd used his connections to acquire many of the rifles used in the act) fled to Cuba.
The election year rolled forward, with Clinton promising to uphold the rights of Latin American citizens and secure Mexico, while Dole argued the NAFTA act was too damaging to be upheld, essentially through violence. Democrats snapped back saying that this selfish attitude would only allow Mexico to destablize more, and may even increase illegal immigration beyond the rising levels due to a Mexican flight from dictatorship.
Though it was not the sole campaign issue, Clinton won the election.
1997- The dominant news story out of Southern California is race riots regarding several arrests and trials from the LA terrorist attacks of the previous year. OJ Simpson goes relatively unnoticed for quite some time.
On October 17, after the burial of Che Guevera with full military honors, the Cuban government says they will not hand the suspects unless the death penalty will be ruled out by the Californian governor. The Californian governor refuses to make such an agreement and demands that the 'Cuban government hand over these murderers lest they share in the stain of innocent blood'.
Cuba refuses.
On October 26 the Californian governor says 'America should do anything necessary to take these terrorists out of Cuba'. The next day, combined with the Asian financial crisis, the stock market plummets.
1998- The Monica Lewinsky scandal somehow manages to overshadow the Mexican conflict, if briefly. In an attempt to distract attention and out of complete frustration with Cuba, Clinton gives Cuba until March 20th to hand over the suspects.
The world watches with baited breath.
On March 18th a gunfire exchange takes place at Guantanamo Bay. Cubans say they saw a Marine crossing the border, Americans say the Cubans fired in error, and simply returned fire. The gunbattle ends with Cuban forces besieging Guantanamo Bay. The USS John F. Kennedy, which had ended a 6-month deployment in 1997, was quickly refitted for duty and called into the Carribbean. The Kennedy began immediate strikes on Cuba in retaliation. On March 20th a pair of F/A-18 Hornets supposedly kill Castro with a laser guided bomb. Soon after many members of the Cuban army desert and the US breaks out of Guantanamo, fighting skirmishes with guerillas and the Cuban army along the way.
By April American forces were at the edges of Havana, where the Cuban diehards were making their last stand. The USMC, after a massive 'precision' bombardment by American strategic aircraft, completes the assault. As a PR gesture, cameras roll as Cuban-Americans and anti-Castro Cuban guerillas raise the Cuban and American flags in Havana, though the Cuban one is ordered to fly higher. This is effectively the end of major resistance in Cuba. The rest of the island is gradually won over by Alberto Franqui, who becomes interim President of the Republic of Cuba. He promises not to remove the current healthcare given to Cubans, but makes an agreement to join NAFTA 'in the near future' as he begins programs to help develop Cuba into a free-market society.
Meanwhile, the rest of the world was shocked by the US invasion. Many agreed that the downfall of Castro was good, but they condemned the US violence. China and Russia began vetoing US pleas to help stablize Cuba or Mexico in the UN.
The African Embassy bombings are met with Operation Infinite Reach, and out of sheer luck, Osama Bin Laden is presumed killed, as he never appears in any audiovisual record again. Al-Qaeda never again adopts a rallying symbol. Desert Fox is also made in response to Hussein.
Socialist guerillas begin flooding into Mexico as Venezuela and several other nations condemn the US invasion of Cuba. Venezuela also begins negotiation for the purchase of fighter aircraft from the former Soviet Union. America discourages it but with no evidence to link the Venezuelan government to the incident the US grudgingly lets the deal go through.
Venezuela also begins talks with other South American nations about the possibility of a strengthened alliance bloc, though most nations are reluctant to do so or completely abhorr the idea.
1999- Republican governorships and senators win every US border state, as Republicans adopt a new platform of 'non-intervention'. Republicans angry at US intervention in Mexico are only moreso enflamed by conflicts in Cuba, Iraq, Sudan, the Balkans, and Afghanistan.
"For Clinton, love is war. And it's pretty clear by now he can't stand to stick with just one of either"
-Caller on FOX News, Jan 2nd 1999
But it seems the War in Mexico is slowing down. Many of the Zapatistas withdraw back into Chiapas and the Southern provinces, but increased illegal activity occurs near the borders. Texas and California deploy National Guard units and 'Minutemen Volunteer Groups' to monitor the border for crossing terrorists. In California, many illegal (and legal) immigrants are rounded up and arrested, and then held without trial for months. The Supreme Court rules in
Marquez v California that the Californian government may not suspend habeas corpus and orders immediate trials for all arrested.
Clinton splits both parties. Anti-War Democrats and many Republicans say that he is fostering 'American Imperialism.' But many pro-business Republicans and neoliberal Democrats say that the wars were abseloutely necessary to American security and preserving democracy. The rifts only continue when Bush and McCain announce their bids for the 2000 Presidency against Al Gore, who is quickly voted in by Democratic Primaries and nominated. McCain ran as what the Op-Eds were calling 'Pax Americana moderates'. McCain's position on Mexico was outlined thusly:
"[There are] dangers implicit in failing to properly monitor traffic crossing the Mexican border, and there are certainly dangers in this war. Yet, Mexico is one of our largest trading partners, and it is in our best interest to maintain as open a border and as stable a nation as possible. It is a careful balancing act. [We should] ensure that we are doing everything we can to stem the flow of illegal drugs and Zapatista terrorists without impeding the flow of legitimate commerce. I think that its clear now the Mexican government needs our nation's aid to maintain that balance."
As the race begins, in November 30th clashes occur outside the Seattle WTO conference, many linking it to 'unjust US action in Mexico and Cuba'. There are no deaths but it illustrates growing anti-American sentiment from the Old Left and antiglobalizers, who compare the current US Carribbean wars to the Mexican American War. Rather than gaining territory for slaves, they argue the current government seeks to gain more territory for 'wage-slaves' and 'economic imperialism'.
As the race continues, Venezuela finds that virtually every anti-war candidate has been voted out of office. Though the rebellion is calming, Chavez will have none of it. Venezuela begins a mobilization of troops, and then the Zapatistas begin a last bid for freedom. Chiapas and other sections of Zapatista controlled territory hold a vote, and say that they are now the independent People's Republic of Chiapas. America is not amused, and refuses to recognize the nation. But the UNSC vote to send peacekeepers is again shut down by Russia and China, who ironically state the US is undermining the democratic process. The actual validity of the votes is never revealed but the Zapatistas do enjoy exceptional support.
The first nation to recognize the People's Republic is Venezuela. The next is China, who are seeking to solidify their oil partnership. Then a slew of other socialist nations fall in, all saying a new vote should be conducted with heavy UN monitoring.
It is scheduled for February of 2000.
The Mexican government and people, which has elected Vincente Fox on a heavy 'United Free Mexico' platform, refuses to recognize the People's Republic but knows it has virtually no control over the South. They sign a cease fire for the duration of the vote and demilitarize sections of Mexico, with the UN breathing down their necks.
2000: The vote goes smoothly, but for all the wrong reasons. With the uprising virtually every anti-Zapatista has fled the area, resulting in a landslide victory for the independence ballot.
The United States is outraged, and vetoes every UNSC measure to support the small nation.
Huge amounts of the Mexican Army from the far South desert, and the Mexican government, its troops already worn down by attrition, is desperate to raise enough troops. In late March the Mexican Army launches a last ditch offensive into disputed territory, but finds it bogged down by guerilla attacks and unexpected support of the Zapatista guerillas and the newborn Chiapas Army in disrupting the supply chain. The Mexicans quickly find themselves in the 'DMZ' with an offensive that, due to a combination of emotionally-fueled and ill-considered planning, incompetent leadership, and low troop morale, has driven itself into the jungle and mud with no escape in sight.
The US can do nothing in the DMZ. Cries for air support are heard but never met, as Venezuela begins shipping air defense into the small nation through the Yucatan. The Interim Governing Council of Chiapas decries the attack and requests Venezuelan military support in a 'purely defensive role'.
The two nations reach a standoff. America cannot afford a massive war with Venezuela, or so many argue. Already the 1998 fervor is slowing down in the nativist Republicans and anti-war Democrats. Over the summer of 2000, the US maintains a shaky relationship as an 'aid race' occurs over Mexico. As Venezuela moves troops into Chiapas, America sends more and more men into Mexico. China sends humanitarian aid to the new nation but refuses to take part in any military conflict.
Though a vote in the Organization of American States fails, the US threatens quarantine on Chiapas. The world protests, saying a quarantine on Chiapas is throwing it to the hungry wolves in the Mexican leadership. McCain wins the presidential election, and as the curtains close on the tumultous Clinton administration, both American and Venezuela prepare for war.
2001:
The new 'Chiapas Air Force' (crewed by Venezuelan pilots in Venezuelan planes) begins shooting down all Mexican aircraft that enter 'Chiapas Air Space'. Both nations are now ignoring the DMZ, though it is Mexico who is struggling to reform their military.
McCain's inaugural is a fiery speech about protecting Mexico and promoting freedom. In April, the unthinkable happens. Over some DMZ Border dispute, Mexican helicopter gunships 'accidentally' strafe several pro-Chiapas villagers. This is the last straw for many in the cities, and the pro leftist poor begin nearly complete rebellion. Fox refuses to leave, and instead calls his forces into the capital and other major cities to silence the rebellion.
But the Chiapan Republic seems to be eager for blood. They begin an immediate, full out assault into provinces as far as Vera Cruz. Old, but effective cruise missiles pound Mexico City, and the Mexican air force finds itself in no capacity to stand up to PRCAF equipment. The offensive scrambles towards Mexico City as their goal, where Vincente Fox attempts to flee. His aircraft is destroyed by Zapatistas using an SA-18 missile.
America is swift to respond. Within two days the 3rd Armored Cavalry has reached the battlefront, and utterly obliterates the Chiapan advance. The US Air Force achieves complete air superiority, and within 24 hours bombs rain on every inch of Chiapas. However, they do find that the hardcore Zapatistas, as the Vietnamese, were in no mood to roll over. Guerilla fighting bogs down US forces in Central Mexico as the US demands immediate Venezuelan troop withdrawal.
Chavez responds by saying they will not withdraw troops from Chiapas until the US sends its forces out of Mexico. With the Mexican government in shambles, Northern Mexico throws in the towel. In all US bordering states and Durango, state governments and people alike vote to become part of the US. Durango is the last to vote, with the official results being proclaimed in 2002. McCain heartily encourages the result of the vote. Though he remarks it is saddening that the Mexican government has failed, he believes the US and Mexico alike could have significant security and economic gains from the Mexican states joining the Union. By 2002, Congress passes the 'Southern Ordinance', which puts each region as a semi-autonomous territory for 5 years while infrastructure is put up and the US bureaucracy is established. Few vote against the measure, but many say it will help alleviate the immigration problems. Increased US business activity and new minimum wage laws will not result in the original US states being swamped with labor, say proponents, and the senate also offers a plan to naturalize all Mexican illegal immigrants. The US Mexican Territories all set up measures to help bring US business there, and also establish special task forces for cleaning out the crime and corruption left over from the old government. Ultimately, a homogenization begins. With the former border porous, many Mexicans go home to try and take advantage of US businesses setting up in former Northern Mexico, while many Americans are drawn to Mexico by cheaper land prices and a growing infrastructure. Though the US will likely have to condense some of the territories into larger states, many are optimistic.
Texas governor Bush now finds himself under intense scrutiny for his support of the militias, who now have no border to guard and are angry about Mexican integration, along with many other nativists. Many see their political careers going down as pro-war and pro-integration politicians get the victories they have been campaigning for. Many will need to make adjustments to their policy if they hope to survive upcoming elections. With the 2008 elections still an option for many politicans, it seems the new Mexican states may hurt their chances of the Presidency if the Mexican states still have bitter memories of nativists.
Map!
