The eagle's left head

[galileo-034]

I'm interested on seeing how the plague will affect the Despotate economics and demographics.

With all these farming lands depopulated by the plague or stripped from Angevin barons, there is a huge vacuum.
I'd guess that the security and stability offered by the Despotate would entice many Greek peasants and other denizens of the Empire and from Turkish Asia Minor to migrate to Lascarid Greece and Sicily.
These were opportunities they did not quite have IOTL. That would kick-start a feedback loop in which the Despotate would gradually suck out any vitality and strength left in the Empire, accelerating it's OTL decline.

How many people were still left in Constantinople after the Black Death? How many in Messina, Syracuse? How long before Athens outgrows Constantinople?

 

[nickmn]

Well, I think that due to the Hungarians joining the war, we can think about a Greek-Magyar alliance and a treaty ending the conflict dividing the Kingdom of Sicily (Naples). Unless Aragon and Venice unexpectedly intervene. But I think it's unlikely as both are busy with their own affairs. They would also gain relatively little from such a conflict compared to any possible losses.
Treaty of Taranto (signed here at the insistence of Louis of Hungary and Theodore of Sicily):

1. The parties to the treaty formally dissolve the Kingdom of Sicily (Naples); all feudal claims and obligations regarding this title shall become history.
2. The lands of the former kingdom will be divided - Sicily, Calabria and the lands in the east will go to the Despotate of the Two Sicilies, the rest of the lands on the Apennine Peninsula will create the new Kingdom of Parthenopeia.
3. Additionally, Abruzzo is incorporated into the Papal States/becomes a papal fief as a duchy/county under Joan of Naples and Louis of Tarentum.
4. In addition, the Despotate of the Two Sicilies will retain the possessions of the Hospitallers in the Dodecanese; in return, the Knights of St. John will receive the rule over Pantelleria/Djerba and the equivalent of the papal tithe from the Despotate for a period of... a decade (in my opinion it will be enough to settle on the new island).
5. A future engagement between the Lascarides and the Hungarian Angevins is announced.

What do you think? A relatively realistic peace treaty ending the "Third Sicilian War"?

The whole reason Louis invaded Italy is because he believes himself to be thr rightful king on Naples . From his side , this treaty makes no sense whatsoever. He probably doesn't care in the slightest about the Knights , but why would he agree to not only dissolve his title for a lesser one but also give parts of the lands he considers his own away ?
Especially to Louis of Taranto of all people , the man he considers responsible for his brother's murder ? Louis is more likely to end up a head shorter rather than gaining a title and lands . What i would consider more likely is Louis claiming everything Charles had before the war ( maybe with exceptions of what the Lascarids already hold ) and the Despotate as his vassal . Maybe , for good measure , he throws in support towards them against the Serbs , while he most likely will be fine with any gains they make in Greece ( the Dodecanese , the mainland Angevin possessions and Corfu ) .

 

[X Oristos]

Michael Philanthropenos has the opportunity that John VI had in OTL: to go on the offensive. In OTL the core of Kantakouzenos' army were the crews of 22 turkish pirate ships. I guess he had more turkish mercenaries with him when he sailed to Thessaloniki. From there he proceeded to recapture Veria and failed in his attack against Servia. Sometime later on, he might have captured Vodena/Edessa as well. However, when the serbian army returned, Kantakouzenos could not properly defend those places and they returned to serbian hands,

Kantakouzenos himself wrote that that garrison of Veria was 1,500 men and a number of Westerner mercenaries. However, I think he exaggerated that number or more likely he included the local town militia. In his story, he had sent a few picked men to scale the walls. These men ancountered "local guardsmen" who they intimidated and persuaded them to assist them. The picked men and the local guardsmen opened a gate and the city fell. If the 1,500 men were all Serbians and mercenaries, what's the reason to depend on local city militia of very limited reliability? Veria was an important city, so if the reliable garrison was smaller than 1,500 men, then other places would have a much smaller garrison. Kantakouzenos claims that Servia was defended by 500 men.

Philanthropenos can launch an attack from two directions: one from Thessaly and one from Thessaloniki. He has the men to reclaim and properly garrison Larisa and Damasi and then secure the passes to Thessaly: that would mean Elasson and Servia. He can also attempt to establish a land corridor to Thessaloniki by capturing Veria and the castle of Kitros (ancient Pydna).

 

[UnaiB]

Has Charles III had ITTL any more children with his wife Marie of Valois after the birth of their daughter Maria (who IOTL was Charles' posthumous daughter) in 1329?

In affirmative case, which are the names and birth dates of those childs?

 

[galileo-034]

Where is Blanche of Navarre ? It has been nearly three years in the TL since the marriage contract has been signed, and we have yet to see Blanche making the journey to meet Alexandros and be formally married.

 

[Asasyn13]

The whole reason Louis invaded Italy is because he believes himself to be thr rightful king on Naples . From his side , this treaty makes no sense whatsoever. He probably doesn't care in the slightest about the Knights , but why would he agree to not only dissolve his title for a lesser one but also give parts of the lands he considers his own away ?
Especially to Louis of Taranto of all people , the man he considers responsible for his brother's murder ? Louis is more likely to end up a head shorter rather than gaining a title and lands . What i would consider more likely is Louis claiming everything Charles had before the war ( maybe with exceptions of what the Lascarids already hold ) and the Despotate as his vassal . Maybe , for good measure , he throws in support towards them against the Serbs , while he most likely will be fine with any gains they make in Greece ( the Dodecanese , the mainland Angevin possessions and Corfu ) .

1. In my opinion, the Hungarians joined the war for more reasons than just their desire for the Sicilian crown. And even if they do, they probably realize that by getting involved in the conflict as opponents of Naples, they will be forced to make concessions to Syracuse. In turn, the Despotate himself, after almost a century of being someone's vassal, is certainly tired of bowing his head and guarding against being liquidated by their feudal lord.
2. I mentioned the Hospitallers in the treatise, as well as the Neapolitan Angevins, due to the fact that the Pope was involved in this war. The Patriarch of Rome clearly favors one side, and as head of the Church he must save some face. So the victory cannot be (at least formally) total.
3. A royal title, whether old Sicilian or new Parthenopean, is still a royal title. And Louis cannot claim the former, as he does not control the island of Sicily. And he is unlikely to control it, because he lacks both allies and his own strength to do so. Therefore, it is rather in his interest to reach an agreement with the Lascarids regarding the division of the lands of his Neapolitan cousins.

 

[Quinkana]

I just wanna say that I'm very happy that Sicily is finally under Lascarid control.

That low cost, high profit policy was perhaps a conscious one ? In OTL Dusan could have applied more effort to blockade Thessaloniki and also bounce on the Byzantines right after the civil war when they were at their lowest. But he refrained from doing so. I suspect that the highly feudal organization of the serbian state had something to do with it. The nobles wanted to gain new fiefs, not to wage expensive prolonged wars.

And so it begins. Shame Charles didn’t get to see Louis invade Naples before he died. What a complete clusterfuck of a situation he had left Joanna, arguably far worse than otl.He would no doubt be remembered as one of the worst kings of Naples.

Yeah the invasion finally begins, and even though Dusan is winning tactical victories the war is costly on his vassals, as the heavy horsemen that Dusan fields are the people that he also needs to please the most, and as they are ineffective against the massed pike I think it will demoralise Dusan's vassals greatly due to it.

Michael Philanthropenos has the opportunity that John VI had in OTL: to go on the offensive. In OTL the core of Kantakouzenos' army were the crews of 22 turkish pirate ships. I guess he had more turkish mercenaries with him when he sailed to Thessaloniki. From there he proceeded to recapture Veria and failed in his attack against Servia. Sometime later on, he might have captured Vodena/Edessa as well. However, when the serbian army returned, Kantakouzenos could not properly defend those places and they returned to serbian hands,

Kantakouzenos himself wrote that that garrison of Veria was 1,500 men and a number of Westerner mercenaries. However, I think he exaggerated that number or more likely he included the local town militia. In his story, he had sent a few picked men to scale the walls. These men ancountered "local guardsmen" who they intimidated and persuaded them to assist them. The picked men and the local guardsmen opened a gate and the city fell. If the 1,500 men were all Serbians and mercenaries, what's the reason to depend on local city militia of very limited reliability? Veria was an important city, so if the reliable garrison was smaller than 1,500 men, then other places would have a much smaller garrison. Kantakouzenos claims that Servia was defended by 500 men.

Philanthropenos can launch an attack from two directions: one from Thessaly and one from Thessaloniki. He has the men to reclaim and properly garrison Larisa and Damasi and then secure the passes to Thessaly: that would mean Elasson and Servia. He can also attempt to establish a land corridor to Thessaloniki by capturing Veria and the castle of Kitros (ancient Pydna).

If Kantakozenos was able to launch such a counteroffensive I think as Dusan moves back to deal with Bosnia Philantropenos and co could probably get to pre war borders and launch a small campaign that would strengthen the Lascarids in Greece. Maybe Thessaloniki finally is folded into the Lascarid fold and we see a small campaign in Macedonia? Or if Philantropenos is ballsy, he has Gryphos or Baus bring a small army of a thousand or a few thousand men to conquer Epirus?

Dusan having to deal with rebellious Greeks who want to be part of the Despotate as the communes and pronoia that the despotate offers are much better than the barons of Dusan, and I think they will make life hard for the armies of Dusan. And that changes a lot of stuff too. For example, Dusan tried to help John V take the throne back from Kantakozenos, and at that point we don't even know if the despotate is fighting Venice at this point.

Firstly, will Kantakozenos attempt a reconquest of Greece with the Turkish mercenaries? and where would Dusan put his focus on?

Here lies the opportunity for the Despot. Sanseverino cannot meet Theodore in open battle. At best, he can garrison the different castles and fortified towns. But Theodore has such numerical superiority, that he won't tie down his 10,000 army to besiege a town with 100-strong garrison at a time. He can invest several towns and castles at the same time. The population, speaking Calabrian Greek and following the Basileans should friendly or at least indifferent. And even more importantly, the levies garrisoning the southern communes and castles would have been locals. Would the Greeks of the garrisons fight to the last and starve to death in order to maintain Sanseverino rule over their towns?

Yeah I think Theodore can take Basilicata with numbers especially since he shipped Louis over from Hungary, not to mention the civilian levies would want better treatment. I wouldn't be surprised if the peasants of Naples are already migrating to Calabria before the war due to the administration being better, and if there are greek speakers in the levies it should be relatively easy for Theodore to convince them to open their doors. tbf I just want to see Aquila under Lascarid dominion, as a snub against the tarantines and a return to the borders of byzantine Sicily.

Not to mention the fact that the Despotate has already been using cannonry, which would have a psychological impact even if it isn't the most effective thing to use. Loud noises spook people after all.

Where is Blanche of Navarre ? It has been nearly three years in the TL since the marriage contract has been signed, and we have yet to see Blanche making the journey to meet Alexandros and be formally married.

tbf I've the same question now now that you mention it. I hope we get a mention of her soon (and tbf I hope we get a long form intro about her experiencing Syracuse, as an outsider to all this I think it would be interesting).

1. In my opinion, the Hungarians joined the war for more reasons than just their desire for the Sicilian crown. And even if they do, they probably realize that by getting involved in the conflict as opponents of Naples, they will be forced to make concessions to Syracuse. In turn, the Despotate himself, after almost a century of being someone's vassal, is certainly tired of bowing his head and guarding against being liquidated by their feudal lord.

No, Louis entered the war bc he wanted the Sicilian crown since he saw himself as the one who should've been the king of Sicily, not the Tarantines.

There's a reason why he didn't ally himself with the Frederickian Sicilians in otl, they also claimed the same crown and as a result would threaten his control of the crown of Sicily.

2. I mentioned the Hospitallers in the treatise, as well as the Neapolitan Angevins, due to the fact that the Pope was involved in this war. The Patriarch of Rome clearly favors one side, and as head of the Church he must save some face. So the victory cannot be (at least formally) total.

The pope will get no recourse here, since they're basically way too close to the Neapolitan angevins. Unless Louis marches to Rome I don't see this happening.

Louis came to secure his power over Naples and avenge his brother. Killing Louis of Taranto helps with both objectives. I don't think he would want a treaty for Naples at all considering otl.

I think we would see Naples eventually go back into the Neapolitan Angevins, but with the post-robertian anarchy happening around the time Louis comes in with his army I think the anarchy will be more severe due to Louis' armies, Lascarid armies, and the rest of the petty nobles squabbling for what's left. In this scenario I think the Lascarids will take as much as they can especially as Louis leaves a Naples still in anarchy, and beat back Joanna's armies to cement their control over their new lands in mainland Sicily.

 

[Asriellian]

The despotate potentially getting drawn into a future conflict with the Serbian empire on the same side as the Byzantines wasn't something I would have guessed for this timeline but I've already got my popcorn ready for it (if it does happen that is)

Didn't realise I predicted the future here, even if they're technically fighting separate wars

 

[Alkmaion]

Well, anything the Serbs take from the ERE can be 'liberated' by the Laskarids instead of attacking the empire

 

[federermod]

I'd love to see a family tree

 

[Quinkana]

Well, anything the Serbs take from the ERE can be 'liberated' by the Laskarids instead of attacking the empire

Frankly, all that's left within a generation would be Constantinople as the Turks start their conquest of literally everyone. Even if dusan lives longer (or he could die rn due to the plague), I don't think the Lascarids would care much about the palailogos in Constantinople. As more and more people see that the Lascarids are a rising state whose claim to the imperial purple is the strongest due to blood and by action I see the Lascarids (Theodore and later Alexandros ii) be called his serenity around this period and never be dropped ever again.

 

[Lascaris]

And so it begins. Shame Charles didn’t get to see Louis invade Naples before he died. What a complete clusterfuck of a situation he had left Joanna, arguably far worse than otl.He would no doubt be remembered as one of the worst kings of Naples.

I'm prejudiced but historically he had strong competition.

Considering the losses the Lascarid fleet has incurred, I think the influential sailor's guild would be more than happy to provide manpower in exchange for those nice sicilian hyperpyra.

Well sure. But by the same tokens the inhabitants of Thessaloniki are likely dying in droves from the plague in 1348-49. If the figure of a population in the 100-150,000 range given in the Cambridge Medieval History is anywhere near accurate, it's the 6th largest city in Europe, larger than contemporary Constantinople. It won't reach again this size till the turn of the 20th century...

That low cost, high profit policy was perhaps a conscious one ? In OTL Dusan could have applied more effort to blockade Thessaloniki and also bounce on the Byzantines right after the civil war when they were at their lowest. But he refrained from doing so. I suspect that the highly feudal organization of the serbian state had something to do with it. The nobles wanted to gain new fiefs, not to wage expensive prolonged wars.

Quite probably I think. The problem though is that now Dusan is stuck into... a successful war with the despotate. And Theodore is not likely to let go unless he has taken back Thessaly. So what are the options of Dusan? Continue his was or give back Thessaly and lose face with his nobles in doing so.

Here lies the opportunity for the Despot. Sanseverino cannot meet Theodore in open battle. At best, he can garrison the different castles and fortified towns. But Theodore has such numerical superiority, that he won't tie down his 10,000 army to besiege a town with 100-strong garrison at a time. He can invest several towns and castles at the same time. The population, speaking Calabrian Greek and following the Basileans should friendly or at least indifferent. And even more importantly, the levies garrisoning the southern communes and castles would have been locals. Would the Greeks of the garrisons fight to the last and starve to death in order to maintain Sanseverino rule over their towns?

Basilicata itself had mostly been latinized by this point. Unlike Terra di Otranto one might note. Both based on census data are facing massive population loss...

What do you think? A relatively realistic peace treaty ending the "Third Sicilian War"?

Not very likely arguably. The title of king of Sicily is the one at stake here and one both Louis claim. Aside for the personal angle.

With the end of Angevin Sicily and their control of the seas, the Despotate's economy and trade should recover well, even with the Serbian invasion and the plague. Unless Venice gets into the fray, I expect the Despotate to not have too much trouble repaying that debt.

Irrational kind of hope that could be expected. Hoping to outlast the besiegers when they control the sea and your king has much bigger problems to deal with... But they only that hope to hold on.

After all that was supposed to be your job as a garrison...

I'm interested on seeing how the plague will affect the Despotate economics and demographics.

Badly. Perhaps not as bad as nearby Naples but we are still talking about the population contracting by at least a third and well over 40% in some areas.

With all these farming lands depopulated by the plague or stripped from Angevin barons, there is a huge vacuum.
I'd guess that the security and stability offered by the Despotate would entice many Greek peasants and other denizens of the Empire and from Turkish Asia Minor to migrate to Lascarid Greece and Sicily.

Long term this is not unlikely. But we are not there just yet.

These were opportunities they did not quite have IOTL. That would kick-start a feedback loop in which the Despotate would gradually suck out any vitality and strength left in the Empire, accelerating it's OTL decline.

How many people were still left in Constantinople after the Black Death? How many in Messina, Syracuse? How long before Athens outgrows Constantinople?

For Messina we know that in OTL it went from 13,300 households in the census of 1277 to 3,000 in the census of 1439, that's 15,000 people. Syracuse is the capital drawing people and radically different from OTL when its population was about 8,000 in 1277. TTL is had grown to 63,000 in the two generations post Alexandros to drop down to about 30,000 post-plague.

The whole reason Louis invaded Italy is because he believes himself to be thr rightful king on Naples . From his side , this treaty makes no sense whatsoever. He probably doesn't care in the slightest about the Knights , but why would he agree to not only dissolve his title for a lesser one but also give parts of the lands he considers his own away ?
Especially to Louis of Taranto of all people , the man he considers responsible for his brother's murder ? Louis is more likely to end up a head shorter rather than gaining a title and lands . What i would consider more likely is Louis claiming everything Charles had before the war ( maybe with exceptions of what the Lascarids already hold ) and the Despotate as his vassal . Maybe , for good measure , he throws in support towards them against the Serbs , while he most likely will be fine with any gains they make in Greece ( the Dodecanese , the mainland Angevin possessions and Corfu ) .

That's a reasonable estimation over what Louis thinks. What he manages or does not manage to achieve...

Philanthropenos can launch an attack from two directions: one from Thessaly and one from Thessaloniki. He has the men to reclaim and properly garrison Larisa and Damasi and then secure the passes to Thessaly: that would mean Elasson and Servia. He can also attempt to establish a land corridor to Thessaloniki by capturing Veria and the castle of Kitros (ancient Pydna).

John VI did all that because Dusan was conveniently away in Bosnia and lost all his gains as soon as the Serbbs sent back troops. For Michael to take the offensive Dusan needs to gonveniently go away to the north.

Has Charles III had ITTL any more children with his wife Marie of Valois after the birth of their daughter Maria (who IOTL was Charles' posthumous daughter) in 1329?

In affirmative case, which are the names and birth dates of those childs?

Three alive daughters and several who died in infancy seems to me about right...

Where is Blanche of Navarre ? It has been nearly three years in the TL since the marriage contract has been signed, and we have yet to see Blanche making the journey to meet Alexandros and be formally married.

November 1346, seems about right for the betrothal...

1. In my opinion, the Hungarians joined the war for more reasons than just their desire for the Sicilian crown. And even if they do, they probably realize that by getting involved in the conflict as opponents of Naples, they will be forced to make concessions to Syracuse. In turn, the Despotate himself, after almost a century of being someone's vassal, is certainly tired of bowing his head and guarding against being liquidated by their feudal lord.

Claiming to be kings of Sicily brings them to permanent direct conflict with the pope who after all claims to be the feudal suzerain of the kingdom of Sicily from his agreements with Charles I. Resurrecting the kingdom of Trinacria is an option but by the same token they can be independent as despots. Now Louis of Hungary at the moment likely wants the whole thing...

Yeah the invasion finally begins, and even though Dusan is winning tactical victories the war is costly on his vassals, as the heavy horsemen that Dusan fields are the people that he also needs to please the most, and as they are ineffective against the massed pike I think it will demoralise Dusan's vassals greatly due to it.

Dusan also has these nice silver mines. Plenty more German mercenaries around...

Dusan having to deal with rebellious Greeks who want to be part of the Despotate as the communes and pronoia that the despotate offers are much better than the barons of Dusan, and I think they will make life hard for the armies of Dusan. And that changes a lot of stuff too. For example, Dusan tried to help John V take the throne back from Kantakozenos, and at that point we don't even know if the despotate is fighting Venice at this point.

Venice? No at the moment it does not. Now Venice is in an interesting position. Theodore has just put Corfu under siege. The Genoese have just declared a blockade of the Bosporus and the sea of Azov demanding all non Genoese ships to have their business in Kaffa and seizing ships that do not comply. Each even alone is a crisis. Both simultaneously are much worse. On whom do the Venetians declare war first? The despotate or Genoa? If it is the despotate who ensures Genoa does not jump into the war anyway?

 

[Avrorrange]

I'm prejudiced but historically he had strong competition.

Well sure. But by the same tokens the inhabitants of Thessaloniki are likely dying in droves from the plague in 1348-49. If the figure of a population in the 100-150,000 range given in the Cambridge Medieval History is anywhere near accurate, it's the 6th largest city in Europe, larger than contemporary Constantinople. It won't reach again this size till the turn of the 20th century...

Quite probably I think. The problem though is that now Dusan is stuck into... a successful war with the despotate. And Theodore is not likely to let go unless he has taken back Thessaly. So what are the options of Dusan? Continue his was or give back Thessaly and lose face with his nobles in doing so.

Basilicata itself had mostly been latinized by this point. Unlike Terra di Otranto one might note. Both based on census data are facing massive population loss...

Not very likely arguably. The title of king of Sicily is the one at stake here and one both Louis claim. Aside for the personal angle.

After all that was supposed to be your job as a garrison...

Badly. Perhaps not as bad as nearby Naples but we are still talking about the population contracting by at least a third and well over 40% in some areas.

Long term this is not unlikely. But we are not there just yet.

For Messina we know that in OTL it went from 13,300 households in the census of 1277 to 3,000 in the census of 1439, that's 15,000 people. Syracuse is the capital drawing people and radically different from OTL when its population was about 8,000 in 1277. TTL is had grown to 63,000 in the two generations post Alexandros to drop down to about 30,000 post-plague.

That's a reasonable estimation over what Louis thinks. What he manages or does not manage to achieve...

John VI did all that because Dusan was conveniently away in Bosnia and lost all his gains as soon as the Serbbs sent back troops. For Michael to take the offensive Dusan needs to gonveniently go away to the north.

Three alive daughters and several who died in infancy seems to me about right...

November 1346, seems about right for the betrothal...

Claiming to be kings of Sicily brings them to permanent direct conflict with the pope who after all claims to be the feudal suzerain of the kingdom of Sicily from his agreements with Charles I. Resurrecting the kingdom of Trinacria is an option but by the same token they can be independent as despots. Now Louis of Hungary at the moment likely wants the whole thing...


Dusan also has these nice silver mines. Plenty more German mercenaries around...

Venice? No at the moment it does not. Now Venice is in an interesting position. Theodore has just put Corfu under siege. The Genoese have just declared a blockade of the Bosporus and the sea of Azov demanding all non Genoese ships to have their business in Kaffa and seizing ships that do not comply. Each even alone is a crisis. Both simultaneously are much worse. On whom do the Venetians declare war first? The despotate or Genoa? If it is the despotate who ensures Genoa does not jump into the war anyway?

In this story he would be. His father left him the complete kingdom of Sicily with additional territory outside of it. The Lascarids were appeased. The first thing he did upon ascending the throne was to tear open their compromise with the Lascarids and declare war. He blundered the war(a lot of people would be remembering the results and not by the way he waged it, not that he didn’t make serious mistakes like dividing large parts of the fleet to the Eastern Mediterranean instead just making it a feint, leading the fleet to be defeated in detail) and lost everything his father had gained. Huge sums of treasure and blood were wasted in this failed war.Despite being allied to the Hungarians initially, he also failed to get any form of support from them at the start of the war. If he had those 2k Cuman mercs at the start of the war, the Lascarids might have been extremely hard pressed.

To top it, he managed to antagonise the Hungarian Angevins into declaring war instead of reaching a new settlement like say getting the pope to grant a dispensation to marry Joanna to Andrew’s younger brother(even though he clearly had enough rapport with the pope to get him to support the war against the Lascarids). I would presume that Joanna and the Tarentines would fail just as hard, but they could deflect much of the blame to Charles instead.We had no money and soldiers we could have had to resist the invasion if Charles didn’t lose so much of it, and we had to fight a two front war largely caused by Charles no less!

 

[X Oristos]

Well sure. But by the same tokens the inhabitants of Thessaloniki are likely dying in droves from the plague in 1348-49. If the figure of a population in the 100-150,000 range given in the Cambridge Medieval History is anywhere near accurate, it's the 6th largest city in Europe, larger than contemporary Constantinople. It won't reach again this size till the turn of the 20th century...

I forgot about the impact of the plague... Well, the silver lining is that at least now it will be easier to feed Thessaloniki.

Basilicata itself had mostly been latinized by this point. Unlike Terra di Otranto one might note. Both based on census data are facing massive population loss...

Mostly is a key word here. I believe the southern part should have a greek calabrian majority. After all, the monastery of Carbone is influential and the last type of areas to switch language are always the mountainous ones. My working hypothesis is that the Pollino Massif south of the town of Chiaromonte should be majority Calabrian Greek speaking, perhaps more than most of Calabria Citra.

- Carbone hosted the major monastery of Saint Elias. Said monastery seems to hold influence over Sarkoni, St. Chirico Raparo, Pertosa, Rotonda, Senise, Craco, Montalbano, Pisticci and Policoro among other places.

Considering that the monastery held land at those locations, indicates that there should be a more widespread greek-speaking minority, besides the Pollino Massif majority.

Badly. Perhaps not as bad as nearby Naples but we are still talking about the population contracting by at least a third and well over 40% in some areas.

I think that the plague will enhance the hellenization process. Calabrian Citra had much fewer Greeks than Ultra and it was more densely populated. So, it will suffer comparatively more than Ultra, with the greek-speaking calabrian highlands gradually providing new settlers for the lowlands.

Greek-speaking Messina will suffer as well, but my working hypothesis is that the mountains of Val Demone had a much larger percentage of greek speakers. Naturally, those rural populations will move towards Messina to cover the labor shortage.

Venice? No at the moment it does not. Now Venice is in an interesting position. Theodore has just put Corfu under siege. The Genoese have just declared a blockade of the Bosporus and the sea of Azov demanding all non Genoese ships to have their business in Kaffa and seizing ships that do not comply. Each even alone is a crisis. Both simultaneously are much worse. On whom do the Venetians declare war first? The despotate or Genoa? If it is the despotate who ensures Genoa does not jump into the war anyway?

Logic would dictate that there are many more chances that Genoa jumps in a Venetian-Despotate war than vice versa. The Despotate is already engulfed in a major war and while they are making moves that threaten Venice's future prosperity (Corfu), the Genoese are currently acting a policy that will destroy Venice's most lucrative trade. Even if the Genoese do not jump in a Venetian-Despotate war, they will still take the opportunity to seize the Black Sea Trade all for themselves and without bases there it will be quite difficult to re-enter the market.

On the other hand, the Despotate just got in an alliance with Venice's second major enemy, Hungary. So enemies are closing in from all sides: Genoa chokes the Black Sea Trade, Hungarians are peaceful now but just tried to wrestle Dalmatia from Venice while they establish themselves on the other side of the Adriatic as well. The Despotate is besieging Corfu, the key to the Adriatic. It is as likely that the Venetians will simply lash out.

 

[Tursiops Amicus]

Logic would dictate that there are many more chances that Genoa jumps in a Venetian-Despotate war than vice versa. The Despotate is already engulfed in a major war and while they are making moves that threaten Venice's future prosperity (Corfu), the Genoese are currently acting a policy that will destroy Venice's most lucrative trade. Even if the Genoese do not jump in a Venetian-Despotate war, they will still take the opportunity to seize the Black Sea Trade all for themselves and without bases there it will be quite difficult to re-enter the market.

Seems that the sensible choice would be Venice attacking Genoa.

After defeating Genoa, Venice could choose if attack the Despotate depending on the geopolitic situation of the moment. Maybe the Despotate could be weakened for the war and be easy prey.

 

[Quinkana]

I'm prejudiced but historically he had strong competition.

and with him dead Joanna is there to muck things up!

frankly I think both would be seen as ineffective kings. Charles III bent to Tarantine pressure and fought the Lascarids when the best play is to not engage, and Joanna shouldn't have been wed to the tarantines. A lascarid-Angevin match would've been better for the Angevins for the long run in preventing this war from happening in the first place.

In this story he would be. His father left him the complete kingdom of Sicily with additional territory outside of it. The Lascarids were appeased. The first thing he did upon ascending the throne was to tear open their compromise with the Lascarids and declare war. He blundered the war(a lot of people would be remembering the results and not by the way he waged it, not that he didn’t make serious mistakes like dividing large parts of the fleet to the Eastern Mediterranean instead just making it a feint, leading the fleet to be defeated in detail) and lost everything his father had gained. Huge sums of treasure and blood were wasted in this failed war.Despite being allied to the Hungarians initially, he also failed to get any form of support from them at the start of the war. If he had those 2k Cuman mercs at the start of the war, the Lascarids might have been extremely hard pressed.

To top it, he managed to antagonise the Hungarian Angevins into declaring war instead of reaching a new settlement like say getting the pope to grant a dispensation to marry Joanna to Andrew’s younger brother(even though he clearly had enough rapport with the pope to get him to support the war against the Lascarids). I would presume that Joanna and the Tarentines would fail just as hard, but they could deflect much of the blame to Charles instead. We had no money and soldiers we could have had to resist the invasion if Charles didn’t lose so much of it, and we had to fight a two front war largely caused by Charles no less!

Yeah this sums up my thoughts on this, Charles III may be a better king, but him wasting the treasury on the despotate and causing Theodore to ship Louis the great over would be seen as his fault.

Quite probably I think. The problem though is that now Dusan is stuck into... a successful war with the despotate. And Theodore is not likely to let go unless he has taken back Thessaly. So what are the options of Dusan? Continue his was or give back Thessaly and lose face with his nobles in doing so.

When he leaves for Bosnia, it'll quickly become a hard war to execute, as the Lascarids would likely counterattack and take back their lost lands plus Epirus, which would make things hard for Dusan to deal with if he couldn't return to Macedonia before the Lascarids ship a large enough army in.

Long term this is not unlikely. But we are not there just yet.

tbf I think all of us are thinking in the long term due to the size the lascarids are compared to everyone else. After all, they aren't big enough to call themselves an empire. Yet.

For Messina we know that in OTL it went from 13,300 households in the census of 1277 to 3,000 in the census of 1439, that's 15,000 people. Syracuse is the capital drawing people and radically different from OTL when its population was about 8,000 in 1277. TTL is had grown to 63,000 in the two generations post Alexandros to drop down to about 30,000 post-plague.

Syracuse is very interesting with how much it has already grown compared to otl. With Palermo having surrendered to the Lascarids, it is no longer the capital city of Sicily, and considering that Syracuse and its environs have had a much better 14th century I could see Syracuse becoming one of the biggest cities of Italy as the Lascarids continue to develop and become bigger and bigger.

I just hope they manage to snag Constantinople before the house of Osman solidify their grip on the region.

John VI did all that because Dusan was conveniently away in Bosnia and lost all his gains as soon as the Serbbs sent back troops. For Michael to take the offensive Dusan needs to gonveniently go away to the north.

And with Bosnia raiding Serbia Dusan not dealing with that threat is also untenable.

I don't think Dusan has a good choice here. He either has to ride north to deal with Bosnia and accept the fact that the despotate armies will march and retake as much greek land as they could get, or allow Bosnia to raid Serb territory.

Frankly, I think Dusan would choose the former. His vassals will revolt if they need to...

November 1346, seems about right for the betrothal...

It still has been three years though, and we haven't seen her pop up once. I don't think travelling from Navarre to Sicily would take this much time? Is blanche still travelling due to bad circumstances, or is she still in Navarre due to the war that the Despotate is fighting right now?

Also Blanche is a very non-greek name that I think she wouldn't continue to use. Her adopting the name Lucia or Hagne would work though.

Dusan also has these nice silver mines. Plenty more German mercenaries around...

That's true... His vassals are still part of the fight though, and if too many of them die it would not look good for Dusan.

Venice? No at the moment it does not. Now Venice is in an interesting position. Theodore has just put Corfu under siege. The Genoese have just declared a blockade of the Bosporus and the sea of Azov demanding all non Genoese ships to have their business in Kaffa and seizing ships that do not comply. Each even alone is a crisis. Both simultaneously are much worse. On whom do the Venetians declare war first? The despotate or Genoa? If it is the despotate who ensures Genoa does not jump into the war anyway?

Seems that the sensible choice would be Venice attacking Genoa.

After defeating Genoa, Venice could choose if attack the Despotate depending on the geopolitic situation of the moment. Maybe the Despotate could be weakened for the war and be easy prey.

I think Venice will go after Genoa first, but also make obvious moves against the despotate.

But frankly I think Aragon would be the one who pulls the despotate into the war. Aragon and the despotate have already been making moves against each other before, and with Sicily being fully conquered by the Lascarids Aragon could go for a 'reconquest' of Sicily. Hell, Peter IV could claim to be king of Sicily himself with how Joanna and co will essentially be stuck in France.

 

[Xenophonte]

I just hope they manage to snag Constantinople before the house of Osman solidify their grip on the region.

Well, if Despotat would be able to supere/survive to the ongoing menaces and either continue growing or stabilize and recuperate from the demographic and economic impact of the plague...
Barring any radical changes on their foreign policy/relationship with the Empire, from future Depotats,. Then, I'm envisioning for the ERE, within some decades, (roughly around the time that Tamerlan would be due to make his appearance in the M. East. A situation quite similar to OTL, but that instead of Constantinople being isolated and surrounded by the Ottoman Empire, here, TTL, it would, besides conserve, at least, some of Thracia, the Empire, would have the Ottomans in Anatolia, too. But, ITTL, would be a greater possibility, that in the European/Aegean side, the imperial remains, would be neighbouring the Mediterranean and Balkanic power of the Despotate, Which, would be keeping in check to the Anatolia based Ottoman Sultanate/Empire.
Also, and if so, the above mentioned or any similar enough scenario, would be butterflying away to the OTL, anti Ottoman Crusades...

 

[Whiteshore]

Which, would be keeping in check to the Anatolia based Ottoman Sultanate/Empire.

Which, on that note, is unlikely to survive Timur ITTL, which has really big implications for the Middle East.

 

[Alkmaion]

I´m not sure if we will see Constantinopel anytime soon. Laskaris could also be setting us up with a newly made greek state consisting of the former 'magna graecia' and Hellas itself...

Lets not forget that Syracuse has been the capital of the ERE once before...

 

[Quinkana]

Well, if Despotat would be able to supere/survive to the ongoing menaces and either continue growing or stabilize and recuperate from the demographic and economic impact of the plague...
Barring any radical changes on their foreign policy/relationship with the Empire, from future Depotats,. Then, I'm envisioning for the ERE, within some decades, (roughly around the time that Tamerlan would be due to make his appearance in the M. East.
An situation quite similar to OTL, but that instead from Constantinople be isolated and surrounded by the Ottoman Empire, here, TTL , it would besides to conserve, at least, some of Thracia, the Empire, would have the Ottomans in Anatolia, too. But, ITTL, would be a greater possibility, that in the European/Aegean side, the imperial remains, would be neighbouring the Mediterranean and Balkanic power of the Despotate, Which, would be keeping in check to the Anatolia based Ottoman Sultanate/Empire.
Also, and if so, the above mentioned or any similar enough scenario, would be butterflying away to the OTL, anti Ottoman Crusades...

I think if things go similarly to otl the Ottomans would still surround Constantinople, if only because it'd be hard to prevent the turks from crossing into Byzantine territory since Kantakozenos, in all his wisdom, gave the crossing to the Turks, and probably would do the same ittl. Frankly, I don't see the despotate going on another war with the turks right after fighting with Dusan and Venice at the same time.

I don't think we'd see the house of Osman survive Timur though. If Timur is there to crush the ottomans in Anatolia and the Despotate takes the Ottomans out during Timur's conquests. With the despotate's heartlands being Sicily and old Greece, expanding further beyond western Anatolia, where it is mostly of Greek majority, would be very hard to do, and the consequence of this is that I see Anatolia being split between the Despotate/empire in the West and Timur and his descendants in the East.

Basically we could get Persia being a superpower for a bit, and it would be really cool if that's the case.

I´m not sure if we will see Constantinople anytime soon. Laskaris could also be setting us up with a newly made greek state consisting of the former 'magna graecia' and Hellas itself...

Lets not forget that Syracuse has been the capital of the ERE once before...

It'd be fifty years away from this point, at the tail end of Alexandros II's or his descendant's reign, and I think if the Lascarids fail to procure the city that keeps nomadic invaders from conquering Rome so many times before it'd be a really stupid decision.

But I think the despots of Syracuse will stay in Syracuse, bc for Alexandros II/his descendant Constantinople would be in the hinterlands of their holdings, not in the middle of the empire like Constantinople was for most of its reign. Moving the capital to the edges of your empire does have merit (like how the Ming moved to Beijing) but keeping it in Syracuse would be better for the empire. I think the conquerer of Constantinople would just set Syracuse as the capital of the empire to separate the administration of the old vs the new empire.