The Cuban Missile War Timeline

[Amerigo Vespucci]

Hi,

A very interesting timeline! But I think everything was going to move much more quickly towards disaster after the USA nukes Havana. (Oct 29).

...

If the disturbance spreads to Western Europe, it would introduce discord at the worst moment, when the West needs to be united the most. The Soviets would have a propaganda field day. It is difficult to say what would happen. Anyway, just to point out that the Havana bomb would be a great error: it would initiate the war, no doubt.

Good points. As the political, economic, industrial, and military center of Cuba, you're absolutely right. It's a big step in escalation for Kennedy, and you're absolutely right about the fact that the destruction of Havana isn't necessary for the invasion -- in this TL, it simply helps the invasion.

The choice of Havana is twofold -- it limits the retaliation to Cuba, thus reducing the chance that the war will spread. It also eliminates the Cuban government, potentially a decapitating stroke and potentially allowing American forces to march in with no resistance. While that's not going to happen, the potential is there.

The problem is that Kennedy can't afford to worry about Europe or things outside Cuba right now -- only when the situation is solved can he worry about the consequences. For the people pressuring Kennedy, Cuba is the issue, not the Warsaw Pact in general. Kennedy doesn't know if Krushchev will be willing to throw away Cuba or not. He's taking a risk in hopes of bringing the conflict to a quick end. It's a risk that doesn't pay off, but it's one I think he would make. He's laying his cards down on the table and is blatantly asking Krushchev if he thinks Havana is worth Moscow.

Kennedy doesn't know about the inside pressure, the other forces at work. In a situation where Krushchev is firmly in control, he'd be able to say no, that Cuba isn't worth the destruction of the Soviet Union, and damn the consequences as long as the Soviet Union gets to live. Krushchev's in a hard spot -- he knows that he's at a nuclear disadvantage, knows that Kennedy knows that he is, and Kennedy knows that he knows that Kennedy knows. Kennedy's got the upper hand, and the destruction of Havana puts it squarely in Krushchev's court.

Krushchev's still got an out -- he can say that the conflict is purely between Cuba and the United States. Most folks won't buy it, but it's better than an unlimited nuclear war, one that he knows the Soviet Union will lose.

Of course, the coup prevents a potential end to the situation. The Plotters don't know what Krushchev knows, and so they think they can continue the escalation and still win. They're tragically mistaken.

 

[joea64]

I'm really enjoying this TL and the attendant discussion. I have a comment on the postwar pop-culture scene:

Socially, you're going to see a massive development of nihilist thought, similar in a lot of ways to the 1980s -- albeit far stronger. Imagine heavy-metal fatalist Beatles singing about the end of the world, for instance. But I think that will only happen in places where damage is comparatively light and where you have mass media -- South America, the USA, Australia, India, and so forth. In heavily-damaged areas like Europe, Canada, and north Asia, you're going to have simple survivalist thought. There's no room for luxuries like entertainment when you're trying to find enough to eat.

In countries with controlled media like China and the United States under President Johnson, I can imagine state-subsidized "happy music" and movies with happy endings -- that sort of thing.

From everything I can gather, Los Angeles made it through the war, which means that Hollywood. with its movie and TV production facilities and its talent pool, also survived. (The New York contingent, including the legitimate theater, will probably be devastated, though, and publishing will be badly hurt since most of the publishers are headquartered in NYC.) For the first couple of years, I agree that under Johnson, movies and TV programs will be heavily regimented, but once LBJ is arrested and pitched into Leavenworth and democratic government is restored, one wonders how Hollywood will see the new and grimmer world of the 1960's. There'll probably be a mix of very escapist fare and hard-edged social-problem productions, IMO. (Would a version of "Star Trek" even air in this TL? Actually, I think it might. People would really want to have the feeling there was hope for the future, and Gene Roddenberry might well think that the climate was perfect for his program.)

Music. H'mmmm. The Beatles and other British rockers of the 60's probably don't make it through, in the main. Weren't the Fab Four in Hamburg around this time? If so, they get nuked. What you're describing sounds a lot like punk rock. I can readly see youth culture in the second half of the 1960's take on a bitterly angry tone, blaming the older generation for almost destroying the world entirely. AFAIK Nashville survives the war, so I see no reason for country-and-western music not to develop.

Oh, BTW...what happens to Vietnam in this TL? There would be thousands of American advisers, including a lot of Green Berets, stranded there because of the war. How are they going to get home?

-Joe-

 

[Shadow Knight]

Oh, BTW...what happens to Vietnam in this TL? There would be thousands of American advisers, including a lot of Green Berets, stranded there because of the war. How are they going to get home?

-Joe-

See this is something I don't really understand with the TL. Most of the US makes it through including I'd imagine a large portion of the USN and merchant ships. So why can't the USN get those soldiers stranded in Vietnam, South Korea, Japan, and Europe home? Sure it may take some time but IMO they are desperately needed back home to restore order.

 

[joea64]

There are still US troops left alive in Europe at the end of the war? (Sorry, bad joke. I imagine there would be survivors who needed evacuating.) Actually, I think this was alluded to in the TL. From what I gather, the garrisons in Korea and Japan had to survive on the local economy for quite a while, and the way in which this was done aroused anti-American feeling that still lasts to this day.

-Joe-

 

[joea64]

I just thought of something else while taking my bath; we need to go into more detail about postwar US domestic politics, especially once LBJ is out and democratic politics comes back.

1) Bobby Kennedy is alive.
2) Most of Congress is very likely alive, since there was plenty of time to evacuate at least the leadership to Mount Weather or the Greenbriar or wherever. That means Barry Goldwater is alive. Political differences or not, he was a close friend of JFK. He may end up crossing swords with LBJ quite early.
3) Richard Nixon is probably alive (unless he was in San Diego when it got nuked). IIRC, 1962 is when he made his unsuccessful run for governor of California. Since the 1962 elections got called off, he's probably going to be pretty cheesed off...and starting to think ahead to the next election cycle.
4) I alluded to this in my previous post, but what happens with the New Left (the SDS was organized in Wisconsin in 1962)?
5) The TV networks had their headquarters and news operations in New York. With Cronkite, Huntley, Brinkley, et al. probably radioactive ash, who's going to come up to replace them? (Entertainment divisions, being headquartered in LA, are almost certainly intact.) The Washington Post and the New York Times are probably toast, too. I think they're replaced by the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (with St. Louis now the capital), Chicago Tribune and Los Angeles Times as the nation's leading newspapers of record.

(For that matter, it's a lead-pipe cinch, IMO, that Chicago will become the nation's financial and commercial center postwar to replace New York.)

-Joe-

 

[Shadow Knight]

There are still US troops left alive in Europe at the end of the war? (Sorry, bad joke. I imagine there would be survivors who needed evacuating.) Actually, I think this was alluded to in the TL. From what I gather, the garrisons in Korea and Japan had to survive on the local economy for quite a while, and the way in which this was done aroused anti-American feeling that still lasts to this day.

-Joe-

I can see the Anti-Americanism but if the navy is still around they should be able to get those forces out in a rather quick like manner. I mean I know that they are hunting down rogue Soviet subs and the like but transport are used for that if my memory serves me right. They certainly couldn't be there longer than a couple of months. Heck they might be able to fly quite a few out if they abandoned any heavy equipment, etc.

 

[Thande]

I can see the Anti-Americanism but if the navy is still around they should be able to get those forces out in a rather quick like manner. I mean I know that they are hunting down rogue Soviet subs and the like but transport are used for that if my memory serves me right. They certainly couldn't be there longer than a couple of months. Heck they might be able to fly quite a few out if they abandoned any heavy equipment, etc.

The Navy may be around, but how long can it keep going, given that most of the major military port facilities in the US and her allies were top of the nuke target list?

 

[Shadow Knight]

The Navy may be around, but how long can it keep going, given that most of the major military port facilities in the US and her allies were top of the nuke target list?

Well I didn't hear anything about Pearl Harbor, nor San Diego (unless I missed it), or Los Angeles being wrecked.

And I didn't think you'd need a military port to transport people. Heck they could have transported them to Mexico and then by train to the US if needs be.

 

[Thande]

Well I didn't hear anything about Pearl Harbor, nor San Diego (unless I missed it), or Los Angeles being wrecked.

Actually, all of them except LA were nuked (Pearl Harbour by a short-range sub). Read the list again...

 

[Shadow Knight]

Actually, all of them except LA were nuked (Pearl Harbour by a short-range sub). Read the list again...

Hmm...guess I should have read it a second time.

Still LA should be able to cope with a staggered number of transports bringing troops home. If not they could always route them through the canal to New Orleans or the ports on the Gulf coast.

 

[Thande]

Hmm...guess I should have read it a second time.

Still LA should be able to cope with a staggered number of transports bringing troops home. If not they could always route them through the canal to New Orleans or the ports on the Gulf coast.

I wasn't thinking about port facilities as such, but things like refuelling and repairing ships.

And there's another thing - oil supplies are going to be a problem, to say the least, although the US does have a few nuclear-powered ships at this point.

 

[Shadow Knight]

I wasn't thinking about port facilities as such, but things like refuelling and repairing ships.

And there's another thing - oil supplies are going to be a problem, to say the least, although the US does have a few nuclear-powered ships at this point.

Bah with that many dead the oil facilities in Texas (which as far as I remember were spared) will likely be able to supply the US just fine. It has only been a decade since the US actually started importing crude. If needs be the government can always ration it like WWII.

 

[Amerigo Vespucci]

Hmm...guess I should have read it a second time.

Still LA should be able to cope with a staggered number of transports bringing troops home. If not they could always route them through the canal to New Orleans or the ports on the Gulf coast.

True enough. Long Beach and LA are going to probably emerge as the New York of this TL, simply due to their survival coupled with the India/China region emerging as one of the economic centers of the world.

But remember, the war doesn't end at simply because no more bombs are being dropped -- there's still the hunts for rogue missiles, land missions into the Soviet Union for various purposes, missions to stabilize countries hit by the attacks, and so forth.

There's only a few thousand advisors in all of southeast Asia. That place is a sideshow when compared with Japan/Korea and Europe. When the Civil Reserve Air Fleet is mobilized, there's going to be a lot of shuffling going on, and that's going to strain existing overseas transport capability to the max. Supplies are going to be short for a few months until things shake out. But you can rely on forces in Asia being eventually pulled out, once LBJ is satisfied that no nuclear threat remains. China's a problem for another day, and one he can't worry about now.

Europe's a different story, and I could see at least a minor American contingent remaining in the UK/Ireland at the very least, in a ceremonial capacity in the worst case, and more likely as the beginnings of what relief supplies America can spare. That amount isn't likely to be much for three-four years, however.

 

[Amerigo Vespucci]

Bah with that many dead the oil facilities in Texas (which as far as I remember were spared) will likely be able to supply the US just fine. It has only been a decade since the US actually started importing crude. If needs be the government can always ration it like WWII.

Both will take place. With the massive dropoff in demand due to destroyed cars and people killed, plus the crash in trade, the US will be able to supply itself with domestic oil supplies. That's going to further hurt the recovery of the Arab states from TTL's Six-Day War analogue.

 

[Thande]

Europe's a different story, and I could see at least a minor American contingent remaining in the UK/Ireland at the very least, in a ceremonial capacity in the worst case, and more likely as the beginnings of what relief supplies America can spare. That amount isn't likely to be much for three-four years, however.

Unless I'm very much mistaken there wasn't an American military presence in Ireland.

Sadly, there is the possibility of an anti-American backlash in Britain ("you got us into this and now you're eating our food" etc.) so the US troops in Britain might try and evacuate elsewhere if possible.

 

[Amerigo Vespucci]

Unless I'm very much mistaken there wasn't an American military presence in Ireland.

Sadly, there is the possibility of an anti-American backlash in Britain ("you got us into this and now you're eating our food" etc.) so the US troops in Britain might try and evacuate elsewhere if possible.

In regards to Ireland, I'm referring to using it as a marshalling point for forces evacuated from the Continent. Thanks to its relatively undamaged state, it's the perfect place to stage relief efforts from. There aren't any forces there at the time of the war, but there probably soon will be.

I do agree with you about the backlash -- it'll happen pretty much everywhere there are Americans to serve as a lightning rod. Once LBJ is satisfied that the threat from the Soviet Union is really gone -- probably summer 1963 -- he's going to start pulling troops out quickly. They're going to be needed at home.

 

[Thande]

In regards to Ireland, I'm referring to using it as a marshalling point for forces evacuated from the Continent. Thanks to its relatively undamaged state, it's the perfect place to stage relief efforts from. There aren't any forces there at the time of the war, but there probably soon will be.

I thought that's probably what you meant, but I wasn't sure.

There might well be British refugees trying to flee to Ireland as well - I imagine the Irish government will probably have to impose limits to avoid being overwhelmed, which might create bad blood further down the line. The Ulster situation is quite volatile also, particularly if Belfast was one of the cities nuked (which is quite likely, given its dockyard facilities and population centre).

 

[Shadow Knight]

True enough. Long Beach and LA are going to probably emerge as the New York of this TL, simply due to their survival coupled with the India/China region emerging as one of the economic centers of the world.

But remember, the war doesn't end at simply because no more bombs are being dropped -- there's still the hunts for rogue missiles, land missions into the Soviet Union for various purposes, missions to stabilize countries hit by the attacks, and so forth.

There's only a few thousand advisors in all of southeast Asia. That place is a sideshow when compared with Japan/Korea and Europe. When the Civil Reserve Air Fleet is mobilized, there's going to be a lot of shuffling going on, and that's going to strain existing overseas transport capability to the max. Supplies are going to be short for a few months until things shake out. But you can rely on forces in Asia being eventually pulled out, once LBJ is satisfied that no nuclear threat remains. China's a problem for another day, and one he can't worry about now.

Europe's a different story, and I could see at least a minor American contingent remaining in the UK/Ireland at the very least, in a ceremonial capacity in the worst case, and more likely as the beginnings of what relief supplies America can spare. That amount isn't likely to be much for three-four years, however.

Another thing to keep in mind is that every plane that goes to pick up people can leave food supplies behind. While things like the weather are going to be affected the nice thing is that the fall harvest should already have been pulled in by the time war happened or soon would be. And since the US food production areas were not hit and a large part of the urban population trashed there actually should be plenty of food stored up. So the US might actually have a surplus of food to hand out the first year anyways.

 

[Thande]

Another thing to keep in mind is that every plane that goes to pick up people can leave food supplies behind. While things like the weather are going to be affected the nice thing is that the fall harvest should already have been pulled in by the time war happened or soon would be. And since the US food production areas were not hit and a large part of the urban population trashed there actually should be plenty of food stored up. So the US might actually have a surplus of food to hand out the first year anyways.

Good point.

Next year's harvest will be the killer, though - radioactive rain combined with nuclear winter...

 

[Shadow Knight]

Good point.

Thanks.

Next year's harvest will be the killer, though - radioactive rain combined with nuclear winter...

Nasty. The only thing I can say is at least it was the nukes of the early sixties and not the 200+ Megatons city busters of the 80s.

I figure potatoes are going to be on most peoples plates for several years and grain to be special treat.