The Cuban Missile War Timeline

[Kit]

I really like the idea of an "Indian Invasion" of Europe -- Indian recruiters and corporations going to Europe to pick up specialists and people of interest for the Indian economy, rather in reverse of OTL. Perhaps Europe could be India's Siberia, maybe in partnership with Israel?

Yeah, I think that's a real possibility. Many people in Europe would jump at the chance to go and work and live in a stable, democratic, non-radioactive country with plenty of food, power and a good job.

 

[Darkest]

Also: what does North Korea do? That could be interesting.

 

[Thande]

Also: what does North Korea do? That could be interesting.

Well, he mentioned that South Korea was hit quite badly by the nukes aimed at American military bases there, so NK might take the opportunity to try and invade again (less than 10 years since the first Korean War)...

Interesting to speculate what would happen then if NK does succeed in reunifying Korea under their rule, especially what Japan and China would do.

I also wonder if China will take the opportunity to take back Taiwan in the gap between the US collapse and Japan rearming.

 

[Kit]

Fascinating... my theory was that due to the polarizing influences of the war and a strong anti-leftist feeling that we'd get from a war against the Soviet Union, that the obvious result would be a really rightist government. You've definitely made a strong case for the opposite, however.

As Thande said, there really is no connection in people's minds between the socialist Labour party and Soviet communism. Certainly one would not be blamed for the faults of the other.

The main reason that the UK would become more socialist is purely because the only way to ensure fast, comprehensive rebuilding of the country's infrastructure would be through huge government programmes. That's going to leave a political legacy of much more government intervention.

Of course, we all know that socialist economic policy runs into severe problems in the long term, especially when it has to deal with the emergence of a consumer based economy. But those problems won't start to make themselves known until the UK has put itself back together again.

 

[HurganPL]

Excellent timeline.
So did any countries in Eastern Europe survive ? I think in real-life they would ask for cease-fire as early as possible, most of them weren't exactly loyal to Soviets, I could see population turning against local Soviet garrissons lynching them with approval of national forces. If any survive I guess communism is over and military would take over, giving some leaders as scape-goats and forming "governments of national unity" with some political dissidents and church leaders.

 

[Thande]

The main reason that the UK would become more socialist is purely because the only way to ensure fast, comprehensive rebuilding of the country's infrastructure would be through huge government programmes. That's going to leave a political legacy of much more government intervention.

Of course, we all know that socialist economic policy runs into severe problems in the long term, especially when it has to deal with the emergence of a consumer based economy. But those problems won't start to make themselves known until the UK has put itself back together again.

I was thinking about this last night. I imagine what would result from the rebuilding programme would be a lot of very horrible architecture and new towns (not unlike the 60s in OTL, in fact, but at least there's the excuse of a nuclear war ) but it would do the job required.

I think you're right that a socialist command economy is required for effective rebuilding, much like 1945, although market reforms will eventually be needed to make it sustainable. Of course, one wonders if there will be any foreign country with a higher standard of living that our lot would envy in the 80s or whatever, like the Eastern Bloc people did in OTL - I can't think of any candidates offhand... (China and India will be rich as nations but the majority of the people will still be quite poor, I think).

Amerigo, in an American context you might want to think about the New Deal as a response to the Depression - the analogy's not perfect but it has the same connotations of the market being unable to cope and national economic initiatives being required to drive the economy towards job creation (in that case) or reconstruction (in this).

 

[Thande]

Excellent timeline.
So did any countries in Eastern Europe survive ? I think in real-life they would ask for cease-fire as early as possible, most of them weren't exactly loyal to Soviets, I could see population turning against local Soviet garrissons lynching them with approval of national forces. If any survive I guess communism is over and military would take over, giving some leaders as scape-goats and forming "governments of national unity" with some political dissidents and church leaders.

Amerigo said that everywhere except Albania at least had somebody left to surrender. E Europe will probably be quite depopulated but there will be some people left. I imagine there might be some sort of clubbing-together union there, separated from W Europe by the worst of the radioactive zones in Germany, to try and begin some sort of reconstruction.

He mentioned that Yugoslavia had been caught in the crossfire but I would imagine she would still be the least damaged country in the region. And what about Turkey?

 

[Kit]

Amerigo:

Firstly, great updates to the TL.

Couple of things -

The name TURNSTILE was not officially used until 1963, in 1962 it was called BURLINGTON (though I agree that TURNSTILE is a much cooler name ).

And at the time, the National Alternate Seat of Government was in Cheltenham in Gloucestershire. That's where the government would have set up shop after they emerged froom the bunker.

I don't know if Kit mentioned it to you but it's very unlikely that fascist governments would come to power in Europe after this (did you just mean authoritarian?) Fascists need someone to blame, and there isn't really anyone left except the USA, which is hardly a credible interfere-r in European affairs anymore.

Your second bit on Britain is a bit unlikely. While there might be some opposition to the socialist govt by 1977, it would not take the form you describe. Hardly anyone in Britain in the 60s (or now) had any kind of ideological fervour for capitalism, and those that did pretty much all died in the war. Remember that Thatcherism was only brought into being in 1979 OTL by voters in the Southeast, which will pretty much have been wiped out by the attacks on London and the Royal Navy ports.

I think your bit on France seems quite plausible but I'm not enough of an expert to give any more than that.

Keep it up, this looks like one to remember.

Yes, I agree with this. Remember that the socialist consensus which Britain experienced between 1945 and 1979 in OTL was maintained and accepted by both the Conservative party and the Labour party. The only disputes were not over the central ideoglogy of the country, but over the details.

In this TL, with the government busily launching huge rebuilding programmes, then as I said, socialism will be more accepted than in OTL. But that acceptence will, ironically, be more accepted by both the right and the left, as both will acknowledge that government programmes are really the only way to rebuild quickly.

Now, that situation is not going to last long term. As I said, once people get a taste for consumerism, then socialism is going to start having serious popularity problems. But in OTL, that didn't really happen until the 1970s. In TTL you can expect that to be delayed probably until the 2010s.

Politically, Britain in 1977 would feel very much like a more socialist version of Britain in the early 1950s. Not a time known for massive public unrest and discontent.

 

[HurganPL]

Of course, one wonders if there will be any foreign country with a higher standard of living that our lot would envy in the 80s or whatever

Australia and especially Tasmania, as well as New Zealand.

First World countries, with high standard of living, no nuclear contamination. I would bet many rich people would try to escape radioactivity, refugees, lack of food by moving to those countries and regions, and establishing there a heaven for the rich, as well as bringing investment.

 

[Thande]

And at the time, the National Alternate Seat of Government was in Cheltenham in Gloucestershire. That's where the government would have set up shop after they emerged froom the bunker.

Interesting, I didn't know that. (I thought the Alternative Seat of Government was TURNSTILE, or is that a modern definition)?

Yes, I agree with this. Remember that the socialist consensus which Britain experienced between 1945 and 1979 in OTL was maintained and accepted by both the Conservative party and the Labour party. The only disputes were not over the central ideoglogy of the country, but over the details.

That's the best way of putting it I can think in this context. As you say, while an equivalent to 1979 will eventually come about, it probably won't be until the end of the century at the earliest.

I imagine any capitalist breakthrough in TTL will mainly be to do with consumerism. I wonder if there would be a similar problem to OTL with powerful unions, perhaps grown up during the reconstruction period, or whether a quite authoritarian government would have cracked down on them in the early stages of rebuilding?

Perhaps there might be two stages here - by 1977 we could perhaps see union unrest against this hypothetical government and then in turn in 2010 or whenever we could see a capitalist backlash against the unions?

Politically, Britain in 1977 would feel very much like a more socialist version of Britain in the early 1950s. Not a time known for massive public unrest and discontent.

Austere and quite socially conservative, rationing, few luxuries...yep.

 

[Thande]

Australia and especially Tasmania, as well as New Zealand.

First World countries, with high standard of living, no nuclear contamination. I would bet many rich people would try to escape radioactivity, refugees, lack of food by moving to those countries and regions, and establishing there a heaven for the rich, as well as bringing investment.

I'd forgotten about those, thanks.

Amerigo, was Australia not on the Soviets' target list here? What about the ANZUS Pact?

 

[Kit]

Interesting, I didn't know that. (I thought the Alternative Seat of Government was TURNSTILE, or is that a modern definition)?

Damn, it's been ages since I read up on this.

The Corsham bunker in Wiltshire was called Turnstile in the early 60s yes, and this was the designated bunker for the national government (there were other Regional Seats of Government which would each get a couple of cabinet ministers, lucky them).

However the War Plan UK lists Cheltenham as the place that would be used for government once everyone emerged from their bunkers, presuming London was destroyed.

 

[Thande]

The Corsham bunker in Wiltshire was called Turnstile in the early 60s yes, and this was the designated bunker for the national government (there were other Regional Seats of Government which would each get a couple of cabinet ministers, lucky them).

Do you know where I can get a list of those? The only one I know offhand is Edinburgh.

Of course, what with Soviet missiles targeted on Fylingdales and Finningley, Yorkshire is probably pretty much destroyed

However the War Plan UK lists Cheltenham as the place that would be used for government once everyone emerged from their bunkers, presuming London was destroyed.

Right, thanks for that. I always found this sort of thing fascinating...now they've opened up that nuclear bunker near Salisbury to the public, it's interesting to see all the preparations that were made.

 

[Kit]

Do you know where I can get a list of those? The only one I know offhand is Edinburgh.

Of course, what with Soviet missiles targeted on Fylingdales and Finningley, Yorkshire is probably pretty much destroyed


Right, thanks for that. I always found this sort of thing fascinating...now they've opened up that nuclear bunker near Salisbury to the public, it's interesting to see all the preparations that were made.

Subterrania Brittanica has a pretty good list, but the navigation and search is rather confusing. I've got a book that's pretty comprehensive, but it's back at my parent's house. I'll try and dig it out this weekend and lend it to you on the 30th if you want.

 

[Shadow Knight]

You know Amerigo in addition to S. Africa and India you might see the US taking in some of those European refugees too (Canada likely also). Both are going to need people to rebuild their urban infrastructure and have the agricultural resources to feed and clothe several million refugees. You'll likely see a larger Hispanic migration north too as people are needed for cheap construction labor (which will likely outstrip local American population ability to supply).

Also since Chicago was spared expect it to become the commercial center of the US to replace NY city which is devastated.

 

[Amerigo Vespucci]

Amerigo, was Australia not on the Soviets' target list here? What about the ANZUS Pact?

For Australia, it's not so much a lack of wanting to hit it, it's a lack of the ability. The only thing the Soviet Union has with the capability to hit Australia are missile submarines, and those are so primitive that it's laughable. In addition, they were all deployed to the north Atlantic and north Pacific, so there's none in the area. For once, Australia's isolation works for it. It's one of the few countries to really end up a lot better than OTL, but it's got to stand on its own a lot more.

 

[Amerigo Vespucci]

I think in real-life they would ask for cease-fire as early as possible, most of them weren't exactly loyal to Soviets, I could see population turning against local Soviet garrissons lynching them with approval of national forces. If any survive I guess communism is over and military would take over, giving some leaders as scape-goats and forming "governments of national unity" with some political dissidents and church leaders.

Agreed. In the TL, they begin negotiations for a cease-fire pretty much as soon as it becomes apparent that there's no one in the Soviet Union to be afraid of anymore. Poland and Czechoslovakia are first, and the rest of the survivors follow suit fairly quickly. In less than a month, they're all at peace again.

 

[Amerigo Vespucci]

I also wonder if China will take the opportunity to take back Taiwan in the gap between the US collapse and Japan rearming.

I'm not sure they'd have the sealift capability to pull it off successfully. I'm pretty sure they'd at least try, though. Probably sometime in the late '60s.

 

[Hendryk]

Thande brought my attention to this TL, and I must say it's a brilliant one. Well-researched, well-written, gripping even. And what few quibbles could be made have been made already.

One thing about China: 1962 was the year when the disastrous experiment with rural industrialization dubbed the Great Leap Forward was finally ended, having killed an estimated 30 million people because of the disruption of agricultural production. The failure had put Mao in a difficult position and temporarily given the pragmatists (people like Liu Shaoqi, Zhou Enlai and Deng Xiaoping) the upper hand. In OTL Mao bided his time and got even by launching the Cultural Revolution in 1966; in TTL the situation may well lead to the early consolidation of the pragmatists' hold on power (something that didn't happen until 1978 in OTL).

While in TTL China won't benefit from foreign investment, its comparatively lower level of development will paradoxically make it more resilient to the aftershocks of WW3, being self-sufficient in food and essential raw materials. As others have observed, the same could be said of India.

 

[HurganPL]

About China-wouldn't China gain some technology and experts by taking over Soviet territories in Siberia and Far East-I could see them gathering up remaining military and technological experts that survived to work for China in exchange for good living conditions, luxuries etc.
They would also pick up remaining technological equipment there and infrastructure, that could be used to study and develop it from bottom up(whats the proper word for this in english ?)

I don't know if Kit mentioned it to you but it's very unlikely that fascist governments would come to power in Europe after this (did you just mean authoritarian?) Fascists need someone to blame, and there isn't really anyone left except the USA, which is hardly a credible interfere-r in European affairs anymore.

Oh I think it is possible that such governments could form in Eastern and Central Europe, formed by military and blaming Communists and Soviets for all that happened, as well as the West for refusing to aid them in re-construction etc.
In real life in 60s some former military communists tried to take over power from hard-line communists that had pro-Soviet attitude by using nationalist rhetoric.