The consequences of an errant shell

On to Madagascar to meet up with the resupply fleet. No time for the 2 bb transferred to Japan to get there to intercept, even if they are crazy enough to try. Sept 18 was the time the decision was made to release the ships to the Japanese, did not say where they were or how long to get to India.
Would have to think not in time to take part in anything. If they were close enough with brand new crews should be smashed even by the Baltic fleet.
 
On to Madagascar to meet up with the resupply fleet. No time for the 2 bb transferred to Japan to get there to intercept, even if they are crazy enough to try. Sept 18 was the time the decision was made to release the ships to the Japanese, did not say where they were or how long to get to India.
Would have to think not in time to take part in anything. If they were close enough with brand new crews should be smashed even by the Baltic fleet.

They have a fair lead over the UK battleships. These have only left Portsmouth on the 5th October. Even going via Suez, they are a fair way behind.
 
20 October 1904 Liaoyang, Manchuria

The Trans Siberian railway had been officially completed some 24 days hence, helping greatly the problem of logistics for the Russian armies. General Kuropatkin had needed a victory and he had finally achieved one.

The battle began on 5 October 1904, with the Western Detachment moving 25 kilometres South across open terrain within minimal opposition, reaching the banks of the Shli River on 7 October. The Eastern Detachment also moved South through mountainous terrain 36 kilometres, reaching the hamlet of Bianyupusa on 8 October. Kuropatkin gambled that the Japanese general Oyama would perceive that the Western Detachment moving down the plains was the main thrust against Liaoyang, whereas his main strike force was actually the Eastern Detachment moving in the concealment of the hills. The ruse worked all too well.

The Eastern thrust under Lt General Baron Georgii Karlovich Stackelberg attacked the Japanese 12th Division near the Yantai coal mines, and by nightfall had taken 5000 casualties. The IJA 12th Division had lost even more men, but on attacks being renewed on the 12th broke, it's fire slackening away with what was later shown to be ammunition shortages.

Stackelberg's forces were able to break through, capturing a large concentration of Japanese artillery on Sankaisekisan (called "One-Tree Hill" by the Russians) and pushing on and recapturing Liaoyang on the 19th. The Japanese had retreated mainly in good order, but had lost over 2,000 men that had been too slow to retreat. Overall, the Russian had lost 4,500 killed and 24,000 wounded, as opposed to Japanese losses of 9,000 killed and 21,000 wounded.

The balance, however, had tipped. Whilst the Russians were now more able to reinforce, the Japanese were less able to do so. With winter coming supply, particularly of fuel and foodstuffs, would be all important. The war would be come more static and artillery would also rise in importance. If one had the ammunition to fire it.
 
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30 October 1904 Off Seychelles Islands, Indian Ocean

Admiral Zinovy Petrovich Rozhestvensky's flotilla of 17 warships had been slowed by their fleet train, bringing total ship numbers up to 25 after the rendezvous between the two groups at Madagascar on the 22nd. They now faced the longest leg of their journey and were almost three days out near the Seychelles.

In truth he was not used to such warm climates, having spent almost the entirety of his life in St Peterburg. The latest news from the Pacific was good and it appeared that the tide of war was starting to turn in Russia's favour. Hopefully the appearance of his own forces would tip that balance completely in their favour.

24 November 1904 Cam Ranh Bay, off the coast of Annam,French Indochina

Rozhestvensky's fleet had reached French Indo China. It would only be a five day lay over before the fleet would leave for it's next destination, Port Arthur, where they hoped to arrive on either the 12th or 13th of December. It was important to press on as he had been made aware of the progress of British reinforcements that were being sent to the Japanese, which were expected in Ceylon before the end of November.
 
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9 December 1904, Singapore Naval Base, British Malaya

Admiral Sir Cyprian Arthur George Bridge, RN, had retired in April 1904 but had been offered a temporary reinstatement if he was to head this fool mission. He had guided the two battleships, two armoured cruisers and two destroyers to Singapore, as ordered.

From here he was to preside over their official decommissioning and recommissioning in the Japanese Navy. What became of them after that he had only a cursory interest in, however, he did not fancy their chances in a fleet engagement. The ships were lightly built and in his personal opinion not equal to other contemporary designs. The two old armoured cruisers were relics, products of the late 1880's design schools. None the less, he had fulfilled his duty and could now go back into retirement.
 
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Raunchel

Banned
For the sake of the Japanese I hope that they get at least a little lucky with their new ships, otherwise they will probably collapse badly. The cost of the battleships alone will be immense.
 
Interesting! I wonder what the reaction will be in Australia and New Zealand?

You will be aware of course of the various Russian Scares that rocked the colonies in the 19th centuries. I could imagine that, with the public already primed by the previous scares and the South African War, that we could experience another wave.

Which would probably result in updated or modernised fortresses, more spending on the NZ and Australian Royal Navy station and general defence spending.
 
For the sake of the Japanese I hope that they get at least a little lucky with their new ships, otherwise they will probably collapse badly. The cost of the battleships alone will be immense.

IIRC, Japanese financial and economic resources were near to the breaking point OTL. Here, it isn't going to take long before it becomes apparent Japan cannot continue the war unless Britain provides substantial aid beyond the battleships they're providing now.
 

sharlin

Banned
Be more worrying if the Russian ships run into the RN vessels. The Swiftsure and Triumph are armoured cruiser fast and had very good engines, they could outrun the Russians the old cruisers, not a hope.
 
IIRC, Japanese financial and economic resources were near to the breaking point OTL. Here, it isn't going to take long before it becomes apparent Japan cannot continue the war unless Britain provides substantial aid beyond the battleships they're providing now.

I've been wondering why the provision of any formal aid, especially of the battleships, is not being stopped by the British Foreign Office as a breach of neutrality.
 
I've been wondering why the provision of any formal aid, especially of the battleships, is not being stopped by the British Foreign Office as a breach of neutrality.

Selling ships to a foreign power, even one at war, is not a breach of neutrality. AKA the WW2 destroyers for bases treaty. They have been paid for, not given away. Of course, they have been disposed of for less than "market rate", but that is largely irrelevant.
 
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Interesting! I wonder what the reaction will be in Australia and New Zealand?

You will be aware of course of the various Russian Scares that rocked the colonies in the 19th centuries. I could imagine that, with the public already primed by the previous scares and the South African War, that we could experience another wave.

Which would probably result in updated or modernised fortresses, more spending on the NZ and Australian Royal Navy station and general defence spending.

If the Russian win and secure territory that will no doubt feature in thinking. May see an earlier start to an independent RAN.
 
This seems to headed towards a Russian victory in the Russo-Japanese War. The consequences of this would seem to mean that the whole board has been totally jumbled as opposed to OTL. WW1 as we know it has been butterflied with it very likely that Russia will end up with an antagonistic relationship with the UK for some time over this. At the same time how will Germany react to an ascendant Russian Empire? How will the US is likely to take notice of an increasing Russian naval presence in the North Pacific?

If Franz Ferdinand is still on schedule to have a very bad day in Sarajevo things could get very strange in this time line.
 
This seems to headed towards a Russian victory in the Russo-Japanese War. The consequences of this would seem to mean that the whole board has been totally jumbled as opposed to OTL. WW1 as we know it has been butterflied with it very likely that Russia will end up with an antagonistic relationship with the UK for some time over this. At the same time how will Germany react to an ascendant Russian Empire? How will the US is likely to take notice of an increasing Russian naval presence in the North Pacific?

If Franz Ferdinand is still on schedule to have a very bad day in Sarajevo things could get very strange in this time line.

The British Empire's attitude to Russia will be much more wary, true. I strongly suspect that things will be quite different diplomatically leading up to what still seems an inevitable WW1.
 
12 December 1904, Yellow Sea, off Port Arthur

Rear Admiral Baron Uryū Sotokichi had at least the perfect conditions to conduct the attack in, with some low sea mist. His small force of one protected cruiser, 12 destroyers and 8 torpedo boats had no chance against this new Russian squadron in a stand up fight, of course. It was hoped that a surprise attack on a weary fleet nearing the end of their voyage may be able to sink some of the capital ships they hoped to reinforce with.

Torpedoes would be their weapon of choice, not gunfire. There was a similar surprise attack planned on Vladivostok tonight, also with light forces. It was committing all of the IJN's light forces, but without an current operational battleships what choice did they have?
 
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If Franz Ferdinand is still on schedule to have a very bad day in Sarajevo things could get very strange in this time line.

Franz Ferdinand? Oh there is the Bosnia Crisis just behind the corner and a victorious Russia can think to meddle more.
 
13 December 1904, Port Arthur, Manchuria

As the squadron anchored in the roads at Port Arthur, Admiral Rozhestvensky was still somewhat in shock. The Japanese small units had pressed their attack with almost suicidal fortitude and had closed to extremely short range before launching their torpedoes. They had suffered, his ships putting up a strong defensive fire at the small 200-300 ton destroyers and torpedo boats, sinking five and so damaging another that it had to be scuttled after the Japanese had drawn off.

However, they had not gotten away unscathed. The new battleship Knyaz Suvorov would only fight one battle. Hit once with a torpedo, she had been hit a second time, capsizing rapidly with a very heavy loss of life. The second class cruiser Almaz had suffered some damage from light weapons and one of his own destroyers had been damaged.

Six hours later, as he ate a simple supper of blood sausage, clotted cream and bread, he was reading the report of last nights raid on Vladivostok. Thankfully, it had been driven off with limited casualties, although the protected cruiser Pallada had sunk after striking a mine. The battleships, clearly the main target, had come through unscathed and two Japanese torpedo boats had been sunk, probably more damaged.
 
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1 January 1905, Kure, Japanese Empire

The arrival of the two battleships, now commissioned into the IJN as Mishima and Tango, had bolstered the fleet. Surely their appearance on New Years Day was a fortuitous sign. Their appearance could not have come at a better time for the struggling Japanese navy. They had no operational battleships until 20th December, when repairs to Fuji had finally been completed.

Vice Admiral Dewa contemplated the forces now available to him. He had sunk a Russian battleship at last, the first since the loss of the Petropavlovsk with Admiral Makarov aboard many months ago. His light forces had suffered and he now had:

First Division:
Battleships Fiji, Mishima, Tango
Armoured Cruisers Nisshin, Kasuga
4 protected cruisers
8 destroyers

Second Division:
Armoured Cruisers
Izumo, Iwate, Azuma, Asama, Tokiwa, Akumo
3 protected cruisers
5 destroyers
4 torpedo boats

Third Division
Battleship Chinen
Armoured Cruisers Atago, Maya
5 protected cruisers
2 destroyers
6 torpedo boats

Only the First and Second Divisions were worthy of the name. The Third Division was full of obsolete, slow, second and third line ships.

The army was wasting away in Manchuria, under supplied and forced to forcibly forage to stay in place. This had turned many of the local populace, pro Japanese at the start of the war, against the Japanese forces. He had to get a convoy through to restore the situation, the small amount of supplies brought into Pusan via "fast runs" from cruisers and destroyers had not been sufficient and had cost him a destroyer and two torpedo boats.

Failure was no longer an option. It was a grim thought, as he was well aware that he may now be facing up to 8 Russian battleships.

 
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1 January 1905, Vladivostok, Russian Empire

Admiral Zinovy Petrovich Rozhestvensky's contemplated his command. He now had eight battleships, which he had divided into two divisions, split according to speed, along with his armoured cruiser squadron.

1st Division(Rozhestvensky)
Battleships
Imperator Alexandr III, Tsarevitch, Retvizan, Peresvet, Pobeda, Oslyabya
5 protected cruisers
10 destroyers

2nd Division(Vitgeft)
Battleships
Poltava, Sebastopol
Armoured Cruiser Admiral Nakhimov
4 protected cruisers
9 destroyers


3rd Division(Jessen)
Armoured Cruisers Rossiya, Gromboi
2 protected cruisers
7 destroyers


When the Japanese sortied, which they must do. He intended to use his First Division to stand them off with the support and assistance of Jessen's cruisers, whilst Vitgeft destroyed the Japanese main convoy which must surely accompany the fleet with his two slower battleships.
 
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