The Biden Express

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An Alternate Alternate History

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The New York primary would claim two candidates. Dick Gephardt, who came in fourth, in the single digits, dropped out and gave up his delegates to whoever the numerical leader would be. Third place would also drop out – Dukakis. The inability to carry a large northeastern state so close to the make-up of Massachusetts was heartbreaking to the campaign. They had no vision of a way forward. Pennsylvania and Ohio were the two major upcoming competitions. Both states were heavy blue-collar states, a demographic that Dukakis was failing to reach in virtually every competition, with Biden playing to their roots and Jackson syphoning off minorities and the more liberal primary voters. Dukakis as well said he would pledge his delegates to the leader at the end of the primaries. Joe Biden would win New York, finally cementing his leader status. With the Empire State under his belt, and the delegates from Gore and Dukakis effectively pledged to him, the public at large accepted Biden as the Democratic candidate.

However, nobody told that to Reverend Jackson.

Jesse Jackson was not a typical presidential candidate. He never held elective office, for starters. In 1988, he was arguably the most visible living icon of civil rights. And he acted like it. Even after Biden’s comfortable win in New York, Jackson refused to publically bow out. He was no political neophyte, though. Jackson read the tea leaves after New York. A private hour-long meeting was held amongst friends the following day with Jackson, Biden and Governor Mario Cuomo, familiar with both candidates. All three stood on the same stage as Cuomo said he endorsed Biden, reflecting the will of his state. Some in the press wondered, mostly privately, almost grudgingly, why they could not be covering Governor Cuomo’s presidential campaign? Maybe in ’92, or ’96…

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Jackson continued to campaign until the very last state, winning just one contest in the final fourteen (Washington, D.C.), saying he would not bow out; even at the convention he would not release his delegates. He represented a constituency and their voice (read: his) would be heard. While all the other contenders spoke of party unity and fell in line behind Senator Biden, Jackson was still campaigning, arguing for the issues. There was no personal animosity between Jackson and Biden; their final debates were very cordial, with Biden elbowing his competitor, asking if he was interested in the Vice Presidency. These good-humored comments likely did not help in the next couple months, while rumors swirled about who would be the Vice Presidential nominees.

After his lock as the presidential candidate, Biden was criticized by his own Roman Catholic Diocese of Wilmington Bishop Robert Edward Mulvee over his stance on abortion, which goes against the church's pro-life beliefs and teachings. The diocese confirmed that even if elected president, Biden would not be allowed to speak at Catholic schools. Biden was soon barred from receiving Holy Communion by the bishop of his original hometown of Scranton, Pennsylvania, because of his support for abortion rights; however, Biden did continue to receive Communion at his local Delaware parish. Biden said he believed that life began at conception but that he would not impose his personal religious views on others.

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PK – “In 1985, you spoke at Notre Dame about the separation of faith and politics. As a Catholic you walked a fine line that Biden and others had to face after that speech, mostly on the topic of abortion.”

MC – “I said it then and I think it still holds true that there is a troubling mix of religion and politics. And it pollutes both spheres. The simplest way to convey the message I spoke of that day is “You don’t push your religion through politics because tomorrow somebody else could do the same to you. It is just one of the problems that still persist to this day.”

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Thread: “Anyone but Biden”

ConchRepublican said:
As it says on the tin, who else could be the Democratic candidate in 1988? The obvious ones are those who ran, probably Gephardt or Dukakis, maybe Gore or Simon could get lucky?
Emperor_in_Chief said:
Simon won Iowa IOTL and still couldn’t win. He was a niche/issues candidate that only really got noticed and was never taken seriously because of his bowtie. It’d have to be Gephardt, he was the only one who could tap into the same demographics as Biden did. Gore could try but he is too new and young, was a lightweight then.
ToryMounty said:
It is a shame that Cuomo didn’t run… he would’ve edged out boring Dukakis and just ran circles around Bush. Dukakis could’ve taken it with better staff. I don’t know why he fired Sasso.
ConchRepublican said:
Maybe a good POD for a Dukakis win is that Biden slips up when speaking, doesn’t quote Kinock (sic) or something like that? I don’t know how Dukakis does better than Gephardt still. Dukakis and Jackson are still going after the same people sorta…
InstantPudding said:
So Cuomo has it in the bag if he runs? Who is his VP?

ToryMounty said:
Well he could pick Biden as an insider and maybe to unite the party, but with so many candidates running picking one over the others seems a little petty. My bet is he goes for a Washington outsider like himself, another Governor. That way they can run an ‘anti-beltway’ campaign against the total insider Bush. Bill Clinton seems a good choice, he was Governor at the time, although his boring ’88 speech would likely still happen, except this time as VP.
ConchRepublican said:
I doubt he’d get picked, too many questions would be floated during the vetting process. You might get a Gary Hart 2.0 problem. With Cuomo as the beltway outsider, why not go to Washington? Biden would’ve been a great VP.
InstantPudding said:
So we get this list in the White House:
InstantPudding said:
1989 – 1997: Mario Cuomo/Joe Biden
1997 – 2001: Joe Biden/Russ Feingold
2001 – 2005: John McCain/John Ashcroft
2005 – 2013: Hillary Rodham Clinton/Howard Dean
2013 – Present: Chuck Hagel/Rick Santorum
Emperor_in_Chief said:
This list again… you know not all economic crashes are set in stone? Sorry to divert from the OQ, but is there any way Bush could win? I don’t see one.
ToryMounty said:
You are forgetting how badly his VP choice hurt him. A different pick against a different Dem candidate could’ve helped.

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The Grand Old Party

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Vice President George H.W. Bush was selected rather easily as the nominee through the primary season, culminating in the 1988 Republican National Convention held from August 15 to August 18, 1988 in New Orleans, Louisiana.


Vice President George H. W. Bush had the support of President Ronald Reagan and pledged to continue Reagan's policies, but also pledged a "kinder and gentler nation” in an attempt to win over some more moderate voters. Bush faced some prominent challengers for the GOP nomination, despite his front runner status.

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Former Secretary of State Alexander Haig, former Governor Pierre S. du Pont, IV of Delaware, televangelist Pat Robertson of Virginia, former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld of Illinois, Kansas Senator Robert Dole and Representative Jack Kemp of New York



Despite the rumors of some at the time, Donald Rumsfeld, Secretary of Defense in the Ford Administration, was not a real candidate for the Republican nomination, having ruled it out to supporters in April of 1987. Although he had expressed interest in running for President early that year, Rumsfeld had been out of the public life for a decade and was barely noted on opinion polls, and was unable to raise enough funds to actually compete, even as a dark horse candidate. He would endorse Senator Bob Dole just prior to the New Hampshire primary.

Another notable candidate who would express interest but withdraw prior to the actual primary season was Senator Paul Laxalt of Nevada. Laxalt, one of President Reagan's closest friends for more than two decades, caught many of his campaign workers by surprise. The campaign would say that ''while the political response'' to his potential candidacy ''was encouraging,'' the ''financial outlook was not as bright.'' By October 1987 his fundraising was poor and he was unable to compete on the same level as the front runners of Bush and Dole. His polling never left the single-digits, either.

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The final interested candidate to withdraw before the New Hampshire primary would be former Secretary of State Alexander Haig. Although he enjoyed relatively high name recognition, Haig never broke out of single digits in national public opinion polls. He was a fierce critic of then Vice President George H. W. Bush, often doubting Bush's leadership abilities, questioning his role in the Iran-Contra Scandal, and using the word "wimp" in relation to Bush in an October 1987 debate in Texas, a sentiment the Democrats would begin expressing as well. Haig’s clashes with Bush had not been forgotten since the fallout of the Reagan assassination attempt. Despite extensive personal campaigning and paid advertising in New Hampshire, Haig remained stuck in last place in the polls. Four days before the February 1988 New Hampshire primary, Haig withdrew his candidacy and endorsed Senator Bob Dole, who made an appearance at the press conference, heavily covered by political reporters partly because a snow storm had limited travel by candidates and reporters.

Governor Pierre S. du Pont, IV of Delaware would come in last in New Hampshire. As Governor, he had an impressive economic record in Delaware, turning around its economy while also fostering bipartisan agreement in the state which avoided the partisan pitfalls of other state legislatures and Washington, D.C. His presidential campaign would never gain traction however, promoting a unique platform which would perplex voters more than excite them. Du Pont would be attacked for his proposed Social Security reforms as well as even his name (campaigning as Pete, Vice President Bush would call him out on his actual fancy, foreign sounding first name). He would withdraw after the poor showing in New Hampshire.

Representative Jack Kemp attempted to position himself as the philosophical successor to President Reagan, since few saw the more moderate Vice President Bush or Senator Gore as such. Hiring Reagan's 1984 re-election political director, Ed Rollins, as an advisor, based on sabre rattling in foreign affairs and being a strong advocate for supply side economics and fat tax proposals. In 1988, late into Reagan’s second term, the deficit was growing and the new political buzz was a balanced budget. Although Kemp tried to appeal to the conservatives, his libertarian philosophies of tolerance and individual rights and his commitment to supporting minorities, women, blue-collar workers and organized labor clashed with conservative voters' social and religious values. Except for political insiders and pundits, the general public did not recognize Kemp's leadership ability, although he was a successful man of ideas in some circles. Most of the Republican electorate found was not familiar with Kemp and his campaign failed to really spark any movement in his direction.

After netting the least amount of delegates on March 8, Super Tuesday, Kemp withdrew from the campaign.

The true Republican dark horse would be televangelist Reverend Pat Roberts. Running as the most conservative candidate, he wanted to ban pornography, reform the education system from the ground up, and eliminate departments such as the Department of Education and the Department of Energy. He also supported a constitutional amendment requiring a balanced federal budget. Robertson's campaign got off to a strong second-place finish in the Iowa caucuses, ahead of Bush. Robertson did poorly in the subsequent New Hampshire primary, however, and was unable to be competitive once the multiple-state primaries like Super Tuesday began.

His campaign was attacked because of a statement he had made about his military service. In his campaign literature, he stated he was a combat Marine who served in the Korean War. Other Marines in his battalion contradicted Robertson's version, claiming he had never spent a day in a combat environment. They asserted that instead of fighting in the war, Robertson's primary responsibility was supplying alcoholic beverages for his officers. He would stay a minor figure during the primaries, winning a couple small contests, but he eventually withdrew, endorsing Bush, and was given a speaking slot at the convention.

There was no real challenge from these candidates as Bush’s major primary contender was Senator Bob Dole.

Bush unexpectedly came in third in the Iowa caucus (that he had won back in 1980), behind the winner Senator Bob Dole, and Robertson. Dole was also leading in the polls of the New Hampshire primary, and the Bush camp responded by running television commercials portraying Dole as a tax raiser, while Governor John H. Sununu stumped for Bush. These efforts enabled the Vice President to defeat Dole and gain crucial momentum. Embittered by his loss in New Hampshire, Dole told Bush directly, on live television that evening, to "stop lying about my record." The Bush-Dole spat was harsh, with personal attacks being leveled and even comments about each other’s spouses being made. However, the hatchet was buried in the public eye, although the wounds would never truly heal. Dole’s campaign failed to compete on a national level; Super Tuesday was devastating to the Senator and Bush would cruise to victory in virtually all the remaining contests.


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Dole, Bush and Kemp Showing a United Party

Once the multiple-state primaries began, Bush's organizational strength and fundraising lead were impossible for the other candidates to match, and the nomination was his. The Republican convention would be held in New Orleans, Louisiana where Bush was nominated unanimously, but his running mate remained a secret until the second day of the convention.

With both nominations locked up, Bush in March and Biden in June, the always story-hungry media turned their focus to the next easily framed story – running mates. The Democratic convention was nearly a full month earlier than the Republican event, and their primaries had extended a couple months later than as well. Time was short and a decision was needed. The Bush campaign had a long stretch of time in which to define Biden and was going to keep their cards close to their chest with respect to the Vice Presidential choice, keeping media scrutiny on the continuing Democratic competition, and hopefully Jackson would push the expected nominee further to the left.
 
White Male Seeking Running Mate

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Senator Joe Biden was in a pickle. When it came to a running mate, the list of candidates dried up quickly. Despite having majorities in both Houses and plenty of Governors to choose from, the choice of a running mate had so many variables that cancelled out the lion’s share of picks. He had to balance questions of geography, ideology, experience, race, gender, personality, and multiple X factors. While it was tempting to pick a fellow Senator, only two sitting Senators had ever been elected President, and there would be attacks on a double ‘beltway insider’ ticket. Most Representatives were off the table simple because they were obscure and had little national exposure, while also lacking the chops to survive national exposure.

Former Vice President Mondale’s ’84 campaign had confused the matter further. Four years prior, the Democrats had made quite the spectacle of the process. Each candidate came and interviewed personally with Mondale, and then public press conferences were held at the end of the driveway. Furthermore, the Ferraro Question hovered above the process. Picking a woman… would it be considered tokenism? A repeat of a failed stunt? Along with the specters of Carter and Eagleton, the Democratic ticket would be carrying a lot of baggage.

Picking a former competitor fielded concerns as well. Despite heavy pressure, a Biden-Jackson ticket would be unelectable. It was a careful dance to not completely dismiss Jackson, while still placating the supporters of the silver medalist. Picking another competitor would possibly seem like a slap to them, as well. Senator Gore was seen as a potential candidate, but the ‘beltway insider’ question squashed the consideration, and the relative youth of that ticket being seen as a concern. Going with Rep. Gephardt would put all their eggs in the same working-class basket. Governor Dukakis had potential, but the ticket would be regionally limited to the east coast.

The pick of a Governor seemed like the most promising option. Senator Biden and his chief advisors – his sister Valerie Biden Owens, Ted Kaufman, David Wilhelm, James Carville, and Paul Begalia, were sensitive to a regional balance of the ticket, mostly thanks to pollster Patrick Caddell’s numbers. Delaware’s location put it effectively in the northeast establishment of most Americans, while his natural connections to the rust belt of Michigan down through to Virginia caused some limitations as well. Cuomo, Kunin, O’Neill and Dukakis were ruled out. Collins of Kentucky would be seen as Ferraro 2.0. Baliles of Virginia face the same regional limitation. Dick Celeste’s marital problems were a non-starter. Casey would be instantly rejected by the liberal wing, as well as most of the southern Democrats.

Out west looked promising at first, but Goldschimdt and Gardner were too liberal for the nation-at-large, and the Governors of the empty prairie states would be electorally ineffectual. Still, not all hope was lost. A few names still remained on the private short list.

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JB – “So were down to five?”

TK – “Seems that way…”

JC – “I know you like Babbit, Senator, but I gotta tell ya, it’d be seen as a slap in the face of everybody else’s people. From Gore to Jackson, nobody would be happy.”

PG – “I agree. It’d be a mistake.”

JB – “Maybe we need to slap ‘em… but I see your point. I’ve got to go with somebody I know I can work with here guys. There’s no point to this if I win the election and I don’t feel like my VP has my back.”

DW – “I really think Clinton deserves another look. He’s young-ish, yes, but he’s good on the trail. He’d carry the middle well.”

JB – “Maybe another year. He’s too baby-faced this time around. We’re going against a heavyweight here. Bush has been VP, CIA chief, UN Ambassador... We gotta have a guy who just won’t stand there and take it. We’ve gotta out-smart them. That Atwater is a little shit and he is gonna attempt to stomp whoever the pick is. We need a Teflon VP. Double down and call their bluff. You know what I mean?”

JC – “We definitely do.”

VO – “Looks like we’ve got a running mate then.”

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Mario Cuomo?

My pick may be coming in a little bit, unless somebody sways me to change it.

But I'm curious if people (dis)agreee with my assesment of the situation and who they think that Biden would pick.

He has different variables to cover than Dukakis did - outsider vs. insider, the difference in political spectrum, the regional difference. I'm curious who the board would suggest.
 
Governors out west would include Dick Lamm (CO) and Bob Kerrey (NE), currently serving his first term in the Senate. Both strike me as solid VP choices, although I'm not sure that either qualify as the kind of ass-kicker Biden is implying, though....
 
Cuomo was just ruled out due to regional issues.

So although I've seemingly ruled out Cuomo in the TL, the regional rule is the least set rule of VP choices, in reality.

The balance of personalities is more important in modern elections. I mean look at the choice of running mates:

Biden - Safe, small state and region
Ryan - WI 'swing state', but more an appeal to conservatives
Palin - Safe, small (pop.) state
Edwards - Regional
Cheney - Safe, small (pop.) state and region
Lieberman - Safe, small (pop.) state and region
Kemp - Dole had no hope in NY, appeal to conservatives
Gore - Double down on the south
Quayle - Rather safe GOP state, appeal to conservatives
Bentsen - Stupid idea to try and make Texas in play, but also appeal to Dem establishment
Ferraro - NY is supposed to be safe, female choice as 'game changer'
Bush - Unite the party
Mondale - Yeah, probably

While only really Clinton/Gore doubled down on the same region, trying to appeal to a different region/state hasn't really been a trend of late, with only really about 4 since '80.

Governors out west would include Dick Lamm (CO) and Bob Kerrey (NE), currently serving his first term in the Senate. Both strike me as solid VP choices, although I'm not sure that either qualify as the kind of ass-kicker Biden is implying, though....

Well, I'm trying to keep Biden as Biden as possible in this TL, with the good and the bad. His comment is a little all over the place.

Kerrey, as a guy with one foot and a Medal of Honor, might count as an ass kicker in my book. :cool:
 
Other plausible choices, subject to Whanz's demographic constraints include Arkansas Sen. Dale Bumpers, Florida Sen. (and former Gov.) Bob Graham and possibly Ohio Sen. John Glenn.

Longer shots: Fritz Hollings (SC) and Sam Nunn (GA).

A very outside choice might be Terry Sanford of North Carolina, who's 71 (but lives another 10 years IOTL, so he's a relatively spritely 71, it seems).
 
I admit that he'd be a solid VP pick, but the whole "war criminal" thing puts me off.

Yeah, same here. I never realized the... extent of the 'incident' until I read the original NYTimes piece last week that really first exposed it.

I am curious how TLs that have POTUS Kerrey handle the situation. I can see him getting Swiftboated, for lack of a better term, for his actions.
 
Is Bentsen still a viable choice?

I don't think Biden liked Bentsen much IOTL, so I ruled him out on the basis of Whanz's "...got your back" line. But I also think Bentsen's stature IOTL is due to two things: (1) Bentsen legitimately schooling Dan Quayle in the debates; and (2) Lee Atwater's conscious decision to promote Bentsen as a way of attacking Dukakis by contrast.
 
Oh, SHIIIIII-- :eek:

Mind you, this is in character of an ITTL ATL debate; I'm not saying Santorum or any of the people listed are actually elected as this list shows. Although... ;)

I don't think Biden liked Bentsen much IOTL, so I ruled him out on the basis of Whanz's "...got your back" line. But I also think Bentsen's stature IOTL is due to two things: (1) Bentsen legitimately schooling Dan Quayle in the debates; and (2) Lee Atwater's conscious decision to promote Bentsen as a way of attacking Dukakis by contrast.

Biden and Bentsen were cordial, but it was a professional veneer. They really wouldn't want to be working together on a ticket. Also, Bentsen was chosen by Dukakis as a moderate party elder and Washington heavyweight to balance his liberal outsider ways. Biden is a beltway powerhouse himself, so Bentsen does not really help on that front.

Sadly, this means the Bentsen - Quayle debate is butterflied :(
 
The Land of 10,000 Democrats

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When the Biden campaign announced their pick for Vice President, the general reaction was, “Who?”

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Governor Rudy Perpich was a first generation American, his politics forged in northeast Minnesota’s Iron Range. Perpich, son of Croatian immigrants, did not speak English when he first started school. Originally a dentist, his first involvement in politics was a run for the Hibbing School Board. Working his way through state politics, he was elected Lieutenant Governor in 1970. When then Governor Wendell Anderson resigned to be appointed to Walter Mondale’s seat, Perpich ascended in 1976 and appointed Anderson to the Senate seat. Although defeated for reelection two years later, mostly in part of his seemingly insider politics move, he won the Governorship again in 1982.

A Governor of great drive, his foremost goals of education and economic growth had helped Minnesota shined brightly as other states seemingly declined under Reagan. Minneapolis-St. Paul especially was undergoing an economic renaissance, being called a ‘model city’, while other cities were falling into ruin. Perpich had traveled extensively as Governor and in the private sector, displaying a high aptitude level in international affairs and trade that other Governors lacked. Additionally, he had been receiving some national attention for Perpich v. Department of Defense, where he, Dukakis, and a few other governors had been suing the Defense department to attempt to stop the use of their states’ National Guard units in the training of units in Honduras, a rejection of the Reagan Administration’s policies in Nicaragua. While the case was not likely to be successful, the political points could be major. The selection of a Midwestern governor would also help bring attention to the devastating drought that was plaguing the nation’s breadbasket.

Governor Perpich, a Roman Catholic like Biden, received similar criticisms from the Church hierarchy about his pro-choice positions. The Archbishop of Saint Paul and Minneapolis John Roach, not wishing to make the candidate’s faith a major campaign issue, and unwilling to stir the anti-papist flames, took a similar position as Bishop Mulvee and did not bar Perpich from receiving communion. Public polling did show some resistance to a Roman Catholic president, but only around 15% said they would not vote for a Roman Catholic under any circumstances. President Kennedy had effectively removed being a Catholic as an impediment to office, although the question was continually floated by the media during the campaign.

Reverend Jesse Jackson was the first to be notified on the Biden ticket’s decision. The wounds from the campaign were fresh; Jackson was not asked to relinquish his delegates at the Covention, but one or two of his platform’s ideas would be included in the general party’s platform.

Together, the ticket of Biden/Perpich represented an unexpected approach to the general campaign. Both dynamic characters, Bush was casted as aloof, stiff and out of touch. Still, the quirks of the ticket provided some fodder for Baker, Atwater, and company. Perpich received some flak for the apparent use of hair dye. Cries of the ‘most liberal ticket since McGovern’ and Minnesota’s “Humphrey, Mondale, now Perpich” as the ‘Socialist Trilogy’, came from Republican pundits.

Soon, the event that every Democratic presidential campaign, at least for the past 20 years, loathed would be upon them – the Democratic National Convention.

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