Surviving Austro-hungarian monarchy?

[Keb]

I toyed around with the idea of a PoD in 1825 or thereabouts, leading to a surviving Austria-Hungary (though, technically, it would be a surviving Austrian Empire without the Ausgleich) and one that is legitimately a Great Power. In brief, Franz II doesn't bring in Kolowrat-Leibsteinsky into the government, leaving Metternich as, basically, the man in charge. Secondly, Franz II caves and bypasses Ferdinand (Metternich did bring up the matter a few times, but never truly confronted the Emperor) ... do it, say, by 1831 or so. The crown passes to Franz Joseph (then a year old), with a formal regency (rather than the informal, secret one of OTL), which is presided by Metternich, which leaves him some time for reforms before things reach a boiling point in Europe.

Interestingly, conservatives at the time toyed around with the idea of devolution. Metternich was a major advocate of instituting limited parliaments in crownlands (so, Bohemia, Hungary, Croatia and, IIRC, Venice and Galizia). They were envisioned as having very little real power, but as a foundation for further development, they'd serve brilliantly.

Finally, while Austrian finances would certainly be worse off without Kolowrat (the man was brilliant), at least the army would be functional (as opposed to being stripped of funds to the extent that the standing army couldn't afford to pay wages to the troops). So, come 1848 or equivalent, you'd have an Austrian army that isn't a shadow of its former self ... and a solid foundation for a gradual liberalisation that culminates in a federation.

Figuring out things beyond Austria-Hungary was something of a problem, so the project had just been sitting on my hard drive for years now.

 

[De von Of]

I toyed around with the idea of a PoD in 1825 or thereabouts, leading to a surviving Austria-Hungary (though, technically, it would be a surviving Austrian Empire without the Ausgleich) and one that is legitimately a Great Power. In brief, Franz II doesn't bring in Kolowrat-Leibsteinsky into the government, leaving Metternich as, basically, the man in charge. Secondly, Franz II caves and bypasses Ferdinand (Metternich did bring up the matter a few times, but never truly confronted the Emperor) ... do it, say, by 1831 or so. The crown passes to Franz Joseph (then a year old), with a formal regency (rather than the informal, secret one of OTL), which is presided by Metternich, which leaves him some time for reforms before things reach a boiling point in Europe.

Interestingly, conservatives at the time toyed around with the idea of devolution. Metternich was a major advocate of instituting limited parliaments in crownlands (so, Bohemia, Hungary, Croatia and, IIRC, Venice and Galizia). They were envisioned as having very little real power, but as a foundation for further development, they'd serve brilliantly.

Finally, while Austrian finances would certainly be worse off without Kolowrat (the man was brilliant), at least the army would be functional (as opposed to being stripped of funds to the extent that the standing army couldn't afford to pay wages to the troops). So, come 1848 or equivalent, you'd have an Austrian army that isn't a shadow of its former self ... and a solid foundation for a gradual liberalisation that culminates in a federation.

Figuring out things beyond Austria-Hungary was something of a problem, so the project had just been sitting on my hard drive for years now.

The crown wouldn't pass to FJ if he was only a year old.
His father would never go without the crown (like he did in otl) if it would mean a regency.

 

[Keb]

The crown wouldn't pass to FJ if he was only a year old.
His father would never go without the crown (like he did in otl) if it would mean a regency.

He would if he fell down a flight of knives ... that, at least, was the plan for the TL.

On a more serious note, yeah, he would've been the Emperor if Metternich got his wish for Ferdinand I to be bypassed. I'm sure the fact that Franz Karl would've been easily manipulated by Metternich was entirely co-incidental to the idea (Franz Karl didn't exactly prove himself to be a paragon of ability OTL). Naturally.

 

[Kvasir]

I suspect that were there to be no WWI, Austria-Hungary could have survived for a very long time. I also believe a different war of at the turn of the 20th Century could also lead to a very long lasting Hapsburg Monarchy.

Consider one of the most popular timelines in the Before 1900 board, Carlton's Germanwank. Obviously, he can take this any which way he likes, however it is a useful place for us to start.

Russia in Carlton's timeline had some very lucky early campaigns. It is very easy for us to imagine that not happening. Such an Eastern/Central European war with no French, British or Italian intervention could see Austria-Hungary victorious and then some.

Also not happening in Carlton's timeline, but plausible, is AH absorbing Montenegro and Serbia who they have just vanquished and who are losing their key ally in the region, Russia. Many people say this would be highly destabilising, and it may be. But it may not be destructive.

At this stage, post war, probably with a Ukrainian satellite, and part of an economic Mittleuropa hub, Austria-Hungary could easily find itself recovering from the drags of war.

I envision a potential conflict between the Germans and the other minorities and the Hungarians who are blocking much needed reform. One potential outcome is a civil war that sees the dismantlement of the Kingdom of Hungary and a Federation of Crownlands, say: Transylvania, Banat, German West Hungary [Vierburgenland equivalent], North Carpathia [Slovakia plus Ukrainian parts equivalent], and perhaps German and Hungarian carve outs like Szekley and Hermannstadt etc.

With the Kingdom of Hungary significantly reduced in scope and power, one can easily imagine a Federal structure coming together to keep all the crownlands united with a high degree of domestic autonomy. All inside a Mittleuropa led by the Empire of Germany. At some point, the key to Austria-Hungary's relevance comes from their Hapsburg rulers, who would be like the British Monarch; largely ceremonial.

 

[The Ubbergeek]

I wonder if the power could turn slowly (back) toward the Hungarians, and Austrians the second fidles to a point, if the POD is distant enough or something...

Maybe if Prussia end up gobbling some Austrian lands...

 

[plenka]

snip

All very good points, nice to see so many people interested in this. You are apsolutely right about Hungarians being the largest obstacle to reforming the Monarchy. And what is worse the Austrians let them get away with it!
In 1867 Austro-Hungarian compromise was, in reality, a reward for the Hungarians, and a punishment for everybody else who remained loyal to Austrians. If there is a good enought POD that would enable smaller parts of the Monarchy to have their own parlaments, and that those parlaments have real authority over their own lands...

 

[Richter von Manthofen]

This, basically. For one specific example, the Czechs were one of the more problematic ethnicities in the empire, but even among them, the advocates for independence were a radical fringe politically until late in the war. Serbs and other groups with homelands outside Austria-Hungary may have been a bigger issue, but no one of those neighbors were as strong as Austria, so they could have been managed. The real problem were the Magyar elites that stymied reform time after time. Their power needed to be reined in for the state to remain healthy.

The Magyar Elite and FJ inability to stand up against them.

FF perpetually tried to convince FJ for a harder line (less so in stripping Hungary of something, but more in NOT giving them MORE prvileges).

 

[Richter von Manthofen]

Charles VI. has a son who survives his infancy. No war of Austrian succession. Austria is way stronger.

I assume Frederick would have taken chances regardless WHO sits on the Throne in Vienna.

 

[Richter von Manthofen]

I toyed around with the idea of a PoD in 1825 or thereabouts, leading to a surviving Austria-Hungary (though, technically, it would be a surviving Austrian Empire without the Ausgleich) and one that is legitimately a Great Power. In brief, Franz II doesn't bring in Kolowrat-Leibsteinsky into the government, leaving Metternich as, basically, the man in charge. Secondly, Franz II caves and bypasses Ferdinand (Metternich did bring up the matter a few times, but never truly confronted the Emperor) ... do it, say, by 1831 or so. The crown passes to Franz Joseph (then a year old), with a formal regency (rather than the informal, secret one of OTL), which is presided by Metternich, which leaves him some time for reforms before things reach a boiling point in Europe.

Interestingly, conservatives at the time toyed around with the idea of devolution. Metternich was a major advocate of instituting limited parliaments in crownlands (so, Bohemia, Hungary, Croatia and, IIRC, Venice and Galizia). They were envisioned as having very little real power, but as a foundation for further development, they'd serve brilliantly.

Finally, while Austrian finances would certainly be worse off without Kolowrat (the man was brilliant), at least the army would be functional (as opposed to being stripped of funds to the extent that the standing army couldn't afford to pay wages to the troops). So, come 1848 or equivalent, you'd have an Austrian army that isn't a shadow of its former self ... and a solid foundation for a gradual liberalisation that culminates in a federation.

Figuring out things beyond Austria-Hungary was something of a problem, so the project had just been sitting on my hard drive for years now.

If Ferdinand is passed by the Crowwn would go to Franz Karl - He had part in ruling AH during Ferdinands reign as member of the "Geheime Staatskonferenz". I assume his wife could not argue to pass the Crown to an underage child - which she could for an 18 year old.

 

[plenka]

About the war of Austrian succession, was it possible for Austria to win, or at least not lose Sillesia? Austria, after 1527. rarely seems to do any good against its enemies.

 

[De von Of]

I assume Frederick would have taken chances regardless WHO sits on the Throne in Vienna.

Possible. The thing is however, that it would be far easier to fend off the Prussians without having to deal with all the other vultures, like France or Bavaria.

 

[De von Of]

About the war of Austrian succession, was it possible for Austria to win, or at least not lose Sillesia? Austria, after 1527. rarely seems to do any good against its enemies.

I wouldn't say Austria didn't do well after 1527. Prinz Eugen for example was a military genius and had plenty success against both the French and the Turks.
The problem with the war of Austrian succession is that Austria had to fight off one half of Europe, while they had to pay off the other half to keep peace.
Considering the odds, I would say they did surprisingly well.

 

[kalamona]

The Magyar Elite and FJ inability to stand up against them.

FF perpetually tried to convince FJ for a harder line (less so in stripping Hungary of something, but more in NOT giving them MORE prvileges).

Problem is, that FJ was a real, iron-assed, hardliner conservative. A relic from past centuries. Guess what, just like most of the hungarian elite. Hard choice, a somewhat rebellious, but generally speaking reliable conservative hungarian parlament, or a liberal/socialist one.

 

[Draeger]

No, this is a myth perpetuated by the results of WWI and positivist, present-centered history. Austria-Hungary, while not some unstoppable military juggernaut, was also not the edge of tipping over until well into the First World War, specifically the entrance of a power espousing ethnic self-determination as the basis of post-war state-building. It was a stable state which afforded its subjects a standard of living comparable to that of Germany or France.

Are you perhaps referring to the United States of America???

There are a host of PoDs which make it likely for the Habsburg Monarchy to survive. Federalization seems the best option. United States of Greater Austria and all that jazz.[/QUOTE]

'United States of Greater Austria' -was- proposed, but will likely be seen as a ripoff of the USA. 'Federation of Greater Austria' is more likely, IMO.

For this to work, Franz Ferdinand (the only moderate Habsburg of any significance) and his wife need to survive and inherit the empire.

I agree with your refutation of the Revisionist narrative. The Austrian Empire was not a 'corpse', rotting from within, waiting to burst open into little nations. It was relatively stable, for the most part. The violence of the first decade of the 20th century was in the newly-added Bosnia-Herzegovina province, sponsored, at least nominally, by Serbia. Youths, no older than most AH.com-ers (and younger), committing acts of terrorism on behalf of an extreme nationalist government that cared little for them, but rather for the annexation of said province. The Empire needed significant reform, but it didn't need to be broken up a la Versailles.

 

[Halagaz]

The violence of the first decade of the 20th century was in the newly-added Bosnia-Herzegovina province, sponsored, at least nominally, by Serbia. Youths, no older than most AH.com-ers (and younger), committing acts of terrorism on behalf of an extreme nationalist government that cared little for them, but rather for the annexation of said province.

They were committing acts of terrorism on behalf of the miserable economic conditions (serfdom), cultural and political repression their families, friends and their people in general were subjected to by the Austro-Hungarian government.

The source of instability in Bosnia was fully home-grown. Which is why it would be ideal for the Empire's prospects for Franz Ferdinand to become Emperor in the 1890s, when there is still time to reach an agreement with Serbia or at least reform the rotten land-owning system.

 

[Clandango]

Might the Czechs have went along with any possible attempts Franz Ferdinand might have in the future to make his marriage not merely morganic, so that his children to his Czech wife could inherit the throne?

 

[kalamona]

By the way, why are we somewhat obsessed with FF? Why not a surviving Rudolf? Im quite certain, that he, his actions would have put FJ in his grave sooner or later - okay, i hope so - but even his mere liberal presence would have put a pressure/shape the politics of AH.

 

[jb3]

I agree with your refutation of the Revisionist narrative. The Austrian Empire was not a 'corpse', rotting from within, waiting to burst open into little nations. It was relatively stable, for the most part. The violence of the first decade of the 20th century was in the newly-added Bosnia-Herzegovina province, sponsored, at least nominally, by Serbia. Youths, no older than most AH.com-ers (and younger), committing acts of terrorism on behalf of an extreme nationalist government that cared little for them, but rather for the annexation of said province. The Empire needed significant reform, but it didn't need to be broken up a la Versailles.

Yes. The Austrian-Hungarian Empire had actually withstood quite a bit and it took a complete defeat in a world war to get it crashing (and even then there was still a chance of an Habsburg restoration in places like Hungary).

Let's start it consolidation earlier than FF or Rudolf. Instead of getting involved in the Balkans to that great an extent (i.e. no Bosnia, except perhaps as an independent client state to serve as a buffer) have the Empire try to move East - taking Wallachia and Moldavia and possibly Bessarabia (from the Russians). They already had Transylvania as part of the Hungarian crown lands so why not make the Romanians the next part of the Habsburg cultural mix. I can see a larger Uniate Byzantine church (although the latter part of the A-H empire was pretty lenient with religion).

Also outside of the Tyrol-Trent region which was full of German speakers, have the Habsburgs give up their Italian domains (I know this may be ASB). That turned out to be the equivalent of Napoleon's Spanish ulcer for them as Italian nationalists basically made the Austrians their bogeyman for several generations. Appoint someone as an independent Duke of Milan, re-create the Republic of Venice, you already had Habsburg cadet lines in Modena and Tuscany, Vienna's problem was ruling those domains from Vienna.

Improve the army. On a massive scale. Make it a world power on par with Prussia and France. Although they fought hard and had good generals Austria seemed to consistently whipped basically in every war after Eugene of Savoy was gone. Prussia's rise was at Austria's expense, Napoleon treated Austria as a chew-toy and wanted to split it apart (and Francis partly had to sell Napoleon his daughter for peace), Prussia again seized control of Germany at Austrian expense, the Savoyards booted Austria from Italy and we know how WWI turned out (by the end even the much-denigrated Imperial Russian army was making mincemeat of A-H).

With a stronger army, the emperor could basically hold off all the disparate sections of the empire and re-organize them.

 

[Pachac]

By the way, why are we somewhat obsessed with FF? Why not a surviving Rudolf? Im quite certain, that he, his actions would have put FJ in his grave sooner or later - okay, i hope so - but even his mere liberal presence would have put a pressure/shape the politics of AH.

Rudolf was a Magyarophile. He would not have had the will or interest to break their hold over Transliethenia.

 

[ImperialVienna]

Are you perhaps referring to the United States of America???

There are a host of PoDs which make it likely for the Habsburg Monarchy to survive. Federalization seems the best option. United States of Greater Austria and all that jazz.

'United States of Greater Austria' -was- proposed, but will likely be seen as a ripoff of the USA. 'Federation of Greater Austria' is more likely, IMO.

For this to work, Franz Ferdinand (the only moderate Habsburg of any significance) and his wife need to survive and inherit the empire.

I agree with your refutation of the Revisionist narrative. The Austrian Empire was not a 'corpse', rotting from within, waiting to burst open into little nations. It was relatively stable, for the most part. The violence of the first decade of the 20th century was in the newly-added Bosnia-Herzegovina province, sponsored, at least nominally, by Serbia. Youths, no older than most AH.com-ers (and younger), committing acts of terrorism on behalf of an extreme nationalist government that cared little for them, but rather for the annexation of said province. The Empire needed significant reform, but it didn't need to be broken up a la Versailles.

I actually wasn't thinking of the US, or at least not specifically, just the USGA. Not that it has to be called that of course. The United Crownland of Greater Austria or the Daunbian Federation, it doesn't matter.

My problem, historiographically speaking, is actually the lack of good revisionist history here. The narrative of the "twilight" of the Habsburg Monarchy (to use Alan Palmer's title) is badly in need of being readdressed in the popular mind, and speaks to a general need to readdress our understanding of the First World War. Again, because of positivist, present-centered history, I feel that we collectively continue to allow the Second World War to color our understanding of the First, and that's problematic. To understand the Second World War you must understand the First, but the reverse it not true and thus should have no bearing on our discussions, yet it often seems to.

Rudolf was a Magyarophile. He would not have had the will or interest to break their hold over Transliethenia.

Interestingly, Rudolf was a bit of a Czechophile as well. Rumor suggests he wanted to name his first born son Wenceslaus.