As Near to Heaven by Sea: A History of Newfoundland
  • "...the United Trading Company's stores thus proved an excellent focal point for organizing fishermen and sealing crews, where literature could be distributed easily. The Fishermen's Protective Union's ties to the Orange Order had by 1917 further eroded, with [William] Coaker going so far as to boast that the FPU had as many as three thousand Catholic members in organized northern council districts, and ahead of the elections they had organized their first ever local in St. John's. There was a new energy in the outports, and despite a late surge in ferociously anti-Catholic campaign pamphlets in Protestant districts by the panicking Liberals, the results were decisive - the FPU had won fourteen seats, a gain of six, and were for the first time the largest party in the Newfoundland Assembly.

    The FPU's victory in the 1917 elections thus marked a major realignment not only of Newfoundland's politics, but marked the most stark triumph of a left-wing party anywhere in the Commonwealth. The ruling People's Party lost ten seats to draw at eleven with Richard Squires' Liberals; [Edward] Morris, deeply tied in to the Catholic hierarchy and supportive of Coaker's social democratic ideas, immediately promised confidence despite it being his Cabinet that had just been defeated. The arrangements of 1909 and 1913 were inversed, and the press for populist reform saw itself cemented, with the piecemeal reforms passed under Morris now supercharged.

    The FPU was in some fashions the first-ever syndicalist government elected anywhere in the world, though Coaker would have been loathe to name it as such, regarding instead his brainchild as a "people's trade cooperative." It was simultaneously an advocacy group for fishermen, Newfoundland's first truly nonsectarian party that ended the interminable feuds between "Prots and Popeists" (at least on the surface) that had bedeviled the organizing of the outports, a trade union, a political party, and an independent commercial organization that bypassed the fish exporters of St. John's through the UTC. It was, in essence, "One Big Union." Coaker had unleashed something new and innovative in Newfoundland, and farm cooperatives across rural Canada and the United States would not take long to notice what they had achieved..." [1]

    - As Near to Heaven by Sea: A History of Newfoundland [2]

    [1] IOTL, the FPU got sucked into the conscription debacle in Newfoundland (as with so many other parties around the Commonwealth in WW1) and eventually got absorbed into the corrupt, conservative Liberals as Newfoundland's prewar political parties all imploded and shifted their loyalties around. Here, they stay on the path they begin on in 1909/13, supporting Morris' center-left, Catholic-interest People's Party and then surpassing them as a nonsectarian alliance. I should note that they were only vaguely socialistic, but there are some syndie vibes to their platform.
    [2] I want to give full credit, this is cribbed from the actual the name of a history book about Newfoundland, found here
     
    For Thine is the Glory: Brazil and Integralism
  • "...labor strikes that essentially shut down most of Sao Paolo and Rio de Janeiro for days at a time, responded to against by the veterans' brigades which made a game of knocking out teeth and eyeballs when they "shattered" the heads of their hated leftists on the streets. If the radical left and radical right had one thing in common, however, it was a mutual contempt for the political establishment of the Congress of Brazil and the military, and this hatred came due in the polls of November 1917.

    In hindsight, it had been a massive mistake for Emperor Luis I to delay elections for so long after the conclusion of the Treaty of Asuncion. Brazil had been at peace, externally at least, since February of 1916, and that had given opposition groups nearly two years to organize and destabilize while the Pessoa government, in the parlance of the times, "fiddled," in reference to Nero's apocryphal musicmaking as his city burned to the ground. The resumption of trade with Britain and Europe (and to a lesser extent the United States) had not been enough to rescue Brazil's gutted economy, which was still struggling from Pessoa's strict austerity policies, the loss of tens of thousands of young men and, more than anything, the mental shock of its inconclusive end to the war. While Argentina and Chile in the postwar years were no picnics either, especially the latter as it struggled to exit a long, bloody civil war, they had outlets for their frustrations in political change and reform, whereas Brazil stagnated in place and let resentments build to a boil across the country.

    The old Liberal-Conservative paradigm had been subverted by Fonseca's prewar machinations and the conflict with Argentina had utterly broken it; the Liberal Party collapsed and the Conservatives splintered into several factions aligned with various state-based oligarchs, many of whom supported a secular republican positivism rather than the monarchy and Church. In addition to conservative republicanism there were radical parties, socialist parties, syndicalist parties, abolitionist parties, and nationalist parties - as many as thirty-one parties, some with as few as one representative, entered the Congress of Brazil after the polls, and it was apparent there was no unified government that could emerge out of the mess. Pessoa dutifully tendered his resignation the next day, but gave Luis no sense of who he should call upon next.

    The elections brought with them violence at polling places and riots in some cities and towns as accusations swirled of locally successful parties stuffing ballot boxes or intimidating their opponents; over a thousand people are estimated to have been killed in electoral bloodshed in the last three weeks of November, including among them Epitacio Pessoa, as the former Prime Minister was shot to death while enjoying a coffee by an unemployed Black veteran who blamed him for the end of the war and resented his racial views. It seemed apparent to all that Brazil was careening towards an internal conflagration based on region, ideology, and mutual distrust, and violence was increasingly an acceptable method of solving communal issues.

    There was no liberal majority to appoint that could survive a vote of confidence from socialists who hated them as popular sellouts, and there was no conservative majority to appoint that could accommodate the internal feuds that had riven the Brazilian right. Luis at first pondered a technocratic government under his cousin Dom Augusto Leopoldo, one of the few major military figures to exit the war with relatively clean hands. He was, however, almost immediately dissuaded from this course of action by his wife, who pointed out that in a time of intense crisis in which the monarchy's prestige was beginning to fray, the appointment of a member of the Imperial family, one who was already enormously powerful, would be a provocative choice. Luis slept on the matter and when he awoke agreed with her logic, and thus called somebody else to the Sao Cristavao - Manuel do Nascimento Vargas. [1]

    Vargas was nominated for Prime Minister of Brazil on November 26, the day after his 73rd birthday. He was a veteran of the Paraguayan War who had risen from corporal to colonel on his own merits and had married wealthy after the war, becoming a powerful Riogradense rancher; at the conclusion of his military career, where he had been neither friend nor rival to Fonseca, he had been made the municipal superintendent of the town of Sao Borja on the Argentina border, a position he would hold for four years, before being elected a Deputy in the Congress and serving an unremarkable career as a well-liked and respected backbencher. But it was more than simply that he was a relative unknown figure outside of Rio Grande do Sul that made him an unconventional choice - in the 1880s, he had led a republican club in his home province and was known as an ardent abolitionist, and while he had sworn an oath to the monarchy both as superintendent and as a deputy, it was an open question whether his positivist thinking that demanded the monarchy be overthrown had ever gone away.

    It was often said that Vargas, who was woken up after his birthday celebrations groggy and confused, was as surprised by his nomination as the rest of Brazil, which responded with a collective "Who?" upon the proclamation that he had agreed to form a government of technocrats, scientists, academics, and retired - at his insistence - military officers, ideally ones who had not served in the recent war. It was a curious Cabinet, with conservative jurists such as Clovis Bevilaqua invited to serve as Minister of Justice and draft Brazil a new civil code while also containing longstanding establishmentarian figures such as Ruy Barbosa contrasted with genuine radicals such as Manuel Bomfim. How exactly this mix of men of profoundly different views, ideas and backgrounds would coexist would come to define Vargas and, indeed, the time period associated with his government…”

    - For Thine is the Glory: Brazil and Integralism

    [1] Yes, as in that Vargas' dad.
     
    Second Wave: The Postwar Progressive Revolution of 1917-31
  • "...few men had mainstreamed the idea of Georgist taxation more than Tom L. Johnson, William Randolph Hearst's ill-fated but well-liked Vice President. Johnson had tried and failed to pass such a tax in Cleveland during his mayoralty, but he had never ceased believing in the single land tax, and a number of his acolytes had since managed to pass such laws in Toledo, Dayton, and Athens after his death. One of his chief proteges, Newton D. Baker, was now a powerful Senate Democrat tapped to one day be a Senate leader or even a President; though Ohio's Governor James M. Cox was not a Johnsonite, he got on well with that faction of the party and when a bill arose to limit the ability of municipalities to levy a land tax, Cox was instrumental in helping defeat it even if he was skeptical of extending the land tax to the entirety of the state.

    The late 1910s and early 1920s thus saw a blooming of the use of Georgist taxation as an "alternative revenue" vehicle. It was appealing specifically because it was so simple - it taxed, and in a way penalized, unproductive and inefficient urban land, and even many Liberals had a hard time sympathizing with large landowners who "provided little public good." Seattle had passed a two-percent land levy in 1913 under Hulet Wells, a Socialist, but raised that levy higher to three-and-a-half in late 1917 under a much more conservative administration, proving its relative lack of controversy there at that point. While the heartland of the Georgist tax was New York or Ohio (by virtue of George and Johnson having been mayors of New York and Cleveland), it was quickly spreading across America as a new plank in the efficiency revolution of the postwar years. The sharp decline in industrial production had badly hollowed out municipal budgets that had become reliant upon sales and excise taxes and, in some cases, employee head taxes; the land tax was an easy way to plug that gap and very straightforward to assess, what with city and county assessor's offices knowing where municipal boundaries ended and keeping excellent records of various plats and properties.

    Indeed, what revealed Georgism's mainstreaming more than anything was that it was often Liberal candidates who endorsed it as a revenue-raiser - in order to avoid income taxes at the state and municipal level, as there were still a great many in that party who were skeptical if not hostile to an income tax, period (although such hostility was often much more muted in state rather than federal government). A land tax was an easy workaround that allowed delays in generally more unpopular taxes on income, a workaround that Democrats found themselves happy to use as well and avoid potentially unpopular votes as people looked to stretch their meagre wages further than they had prewar.

    As such, 1917 and 1918 were banner years for the land tax. Spokane passed a land-value tax of eight percent, the highest in the country; cities as varied geographically and politically as San Diego, Scranton, Hartford, and even Philadelphia followed suit. But the true triumph came in the spring of 1918, when the state of Oregon passed a land-value tax that would encompass the entire state, exempting "agricultural uses beyond municipal boundaries" from properties affected but otherwise extending one single rate from the Pacific to the Snake River in what was generally considered the most conservative polity on the West Coast. Georgism was no longer a fringe project of the left but rather a mainstream revenue-raiser embraced by the center and the right; Georgist taxation, in other words, was here to stay..."

    - Second Wave: The Postwar Progressive Revolution of 1917-31
     
    The Central European War
  • "...looking back on the period 1916-18 as something of a prewar "golden age," the last breaths of the Belle Epoque, perhaps through rose-colored glasses. Nonetheless, there is some truth to the halcyon sentiments around that time. The optimism of the late 1910s was in sharp contrast to the more muted and unstable decade to come, particularly in terms of people's views of technological innovation. For an average person of that time, their life - typically born in the 1880s - had seen the remarkable revolution of not just mass electricity but now automotive transportation, urbanization, and the marvel of human flight. European culture and civilization had reached its zenith, controlling or influencing every corner of the globe; middle-class Europeans were, for the first time, increasingly able to access goods from around the globe, especially foodstuffs, and were finding their way into more secure work for better wages, and a broad, rising standard of living.

    While its hard to separate the soft glow of this time from the carnage of the Central European War and economic volatility of the 1920s thereafter, there is nonetheless no doubt that on the eve of the crises that sparked the conflagration, Europe was undergoing a broad, though unevenly felt, economic boom that had kicked off with war orders flowing to the United States and other belligerents in the Great American War and then matured into a broader, consumer-goods cyclical bull market that was particularly strong in Germany, Italy, Spain, and Cisleithnian Austria. France, to be sure, was growing at a fast clip, but still not at the rates of its glorious 1880s or even the first decade of the 20th century; this in part was pivotal to the general French sense of malaise and falling behind their continental peers even if, in reality, it was more an effect of their neighbors starting to catch up. Poverty in Europe declined by over ten percent between 1911-18, and the number of owners of automobiles quadrupled. There was a sense of stability across Europe that had not been there as recently as the upheavals of 1912, and a feeling of joy and peace that would never have betrayed the bloodshed to come. But it was not just in comparison of what came after; the economic revolution of the 1910s was very much real, and sunny memories of that time were not merely nostalgia..."

    - The Central European War
     
    Soldiers of God: The Long Mormon War with the United States
  • "...the execution of Richard Whitehead Young by firing squad (at his request, rather than hanging) on November 11, 1917 coincided with the verdict handed down by military tribunal against Browning and several of his closest collaborators on November 14; of the "Browning Seven," only Browning was spared the gallows due to his company's considerable contributions to the American war cause, sentenced to life imprisonment in Leavenworth Penitentiary in Kansas, where he would die seven years later in 1924. The sensational case - of one of the Army's most important arms suppliers simultaneously skimming weapons, ammunition and money for Fundamentalist Mormon insurgents - and its conclusion marked the denouement of the Third Resistance even more so than the capture and killing of Young; a year to the day after the armistice with the Confederacy, the last conflict on American soil was over.

    Fundamentalism was beaten in the field but victorious in the hearts of its adherents; the successfully sustained insurgency within American borders even as the Federals visited industrial death upon the Confederacy was taken even further as a show of godly force, and many of the conservative Mormons who had joined the insurgency skeptical of Fundamentalist theological doctrine exited it convinced, especially after Browning's group was tried not in civilian court but as traitors before a US Army magistrate judge, leading them to the not-unreasonable conclusion that the verdict was pre-determined. In their view William King and Heber Grant may have been, formally, political rivals in the temporal sense, but they represented a supine establishment Mormonism that had utterly surrendered to the United States, and the rejection of this settlement came to fuel the Fundamentalist exodus from formal church structures and, indeed, the United States wholesale.

    The defeat of Young's Central Insurgency in Utah and western Colorado in 1917 left Cowley's ideologically zealous Northern Insurgency cut off in Idaho and Montana from the larger, concentrated group in the Arizona-Mexico frontier country, and it split in two not long thereafter. Cowley, Charles Zitting and Les Broadbent gathered together about three thousand of their remaining fighters, approximately four-fifths of the Northern Insurgency by late 1917, and chose "the Southern Exodus," as they termed it, electing to make their way to Mexico as quickly as possible; Musser, the more ideological deputy to Cowley, instead elected to remain, with six hundred or so men and their wives and children, marching north to a vast territory along the Alberta-Montana border and eventually formed, near the edge of what is today the Wateron Lakes-Glacier bi-national park area, what came to be known as the Alberta Stakes - the most zealous colonies of Fundamentalist Mormonism, broken off not only from the Mainline LDS Church authority but the Fundamentalist Church as well.

    Cowley's Exodus, however, came to become hugely formative to Fundamentalist mythology. His three thousand insurgents and their families had to march through hostile, Army-controlled territory in Idaho, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico and the Arizona Territory from late 1917 into early 1918, a grueling trek due to wintry conditions and meagre rations; as many as a third of the men, women and children who set off on the trek perished on route, even as they successfully avoided a direct confrontation with the Army and evaded patrols to the point that there was almost something divine about their passage. They were not just like Young's trekkers from the Midwest to the Great Salt Lake, or the Fundamentalists who had fled to Mexico after the 1890s - they were the Jews in the deserts of Sinai, and Cowley was their Moses. With the death of Taylor in Sonora in October 1916 of stomach cancer and Woolley's disinterest in political leadership, Cowley was now the undisputed master of a concentrated community of Fundamentalist colonias in Sonora and Chihuahua upon his arrival in early March 1918, and though Woolley was elected Prophet, Cowley was the one who held power in the "True Quorum."

    The arrival of Cowley's hardened fighters integrated them with a robust, experienced community of insurgents in Mexico who had already served some use to Mexican authorities, and the consolidation of FLDS control of the areas around Agua Prieta was rapid. The Prime Minister of Mexico since late 1915, Bernardo Reyes, was a former general who had come to prominence as a young officer fighting the Revolt of the Caudillos, a severe civil war in much of northern Mexico in the early 1880s that had threatened the Empire's foundation and persuaded Reyes that independent thinking across the poorer, more isolated north threatened Mexico City's authority; this line of thinking had become further entrenched as it was conservative landowners in the Rio Bravo Valley who had been most eager to go to war against the United States, and the most successful thorn in the Mexican Army's side during the war had not been John Pershing but rather Pancho Villa's bandits.

    The use of Mormons as Mexican Army auxiliaries in the war had left Taylor's proteges with excellent relationships with Mexican authorities, and after Villa's defeat at Chihuahua and his flight to exile in California, Reyes had turned a blind eye to Mormons being used as his catspaws to mop up the remnants of his considerable list of enemies along what was now the border with the United States. As such, by early 1918, scattered bands of Fundamentalist Mormons controlled much of the border country, and Cowley's arrival helped organize and unite them into a more cohesive group. Colonias across Sonora sprung up as Fundamentalists and even just theologically conservative Mormons rejecting peace with the Federals flowed south, their exodus not discouraged by the government. Names like Smithsburg, Youngstown, New Nauvoo, New Jerusalem were given to large settlements, where polygamous families quickly flourished and, with the tacit support of Mexico, quickly cemented themselves as Reyismo's strongest ally in the North, to the great chagrin of the Catholic establishment that had already been defeated by the North's frequent wars.

    The Third Resistance thus ended in the United States, but unlike the Second Resistance, it was almost certainly not a decisive defeat for political anti-Federal Mormonism. The Church in Utah and Idaho was badly riven between moderates seen as sellouts to Federal authority and conservatives viewed as cranks sympathetic to apostate Fundamentalists; Fundamentalism, meanwhile, had found its new heartland in the hills of Mexico, where their colonias were romanticized to impoverished Mormons in Utah chafing at Federal rule by the military or, upon achieving statehood in 1922, the machine of Boss King. Cowley's colonists became not just the hammer of Mexican national authority in the wild deserts of the North, either; they quickly established themselves as the backbone of the vast smuggling network that quickly penetrated Arizona and California and, out of reach of Federal authority, built a state-within-a-state within Mexico where they were unequivocally in ascendance..."

    - Soldiers of God: The Long Mormon War with the United States
     
    The Happy Warrior
  • "...emblematic of the Smith-Hearst feud.

    Smith would later remark that in the end it worked out for the best that he did not receive the Democratic line for the Mayoralty of New York in 1917; while it is likely he would have won that election, it would have thus also likely foreclosed upon his ever becoming Governor (certainly in 1918), and his rise to a figure of national prominence rather than toiling as yet another "municipal mick in Manhattan." Bitter as he may have been about being denied the nomination in favor of John Hylan, whom Smith otherwise liked, a Smith who beat Morris Hillquit to become Mayor of New York was a Smith that would never have risen to be America's first Catholic President just a decade later.

    The 1917 elections were also, in another sense, an important event not just because Smith would wind up in the office that made him nationally prominent thereafter, but rather because it was something a deck-clearing event for a generation of Democratic politicians. Smith and Wagner were the rising stars of New York politics, associated with Tammany but less dependent on it than generations past, while not being overtly hostile to the organization in the way that the Roosevelt faction of the party was, which had already anointed young war hero Franklin, who would be honorably discharged from the Navy and return to civilian life in 1918, as its torch-bearer for the future as Teddy's eldest two sons had died in the war, his third son Archibald was severely wounded, and his youngest Quentin still far too wet behind the ears to even begin dreaming of a major campaign. In this way, they were largely aligned with Sulzer, who had become something of their political patron and had, by the end of the war, come almost entirely around to a position of opposition to Tammany and, by proxy, Hearst.

    The election of Hillquit as Mayor of New York was thus a massive blow to the Hearst-Murphy faction, much more so than the revelation of Hearst's affair with actress Marion Davies the following year would be. The horse-trading and maneuvering at the 1914 Democratic state convention to pick a statewide slate as well as their federal statewide candidate had, quite arguably, cost the Democrats a Senate seat, but Hearst's intervention to block Smith's placement as candidate for Mayor - and thus placing him in charge of Tammany's votes, and threatening Hearst's ambitions to return as Governor in 1918 - was a considerably more antagonistic and provocative move than the jockeying of three years before that had simply produced a weaker candidate than Democrats would have liked. It was thus also much easier to draw a direct line from Hearst and Murphy to the defeat of Hylan by the narrowest of margins by Hillquit and the ascension of a non-Democrat to the Gracie Mansion for the first time since Henry George and the first time a Socialist had won a major municipal election east of the Appalachians. Smith had maybe helped James Wadsworth get elected; to Democratic operatives left fuming the morning after election day, Hearst had definitely helped Hillquit take the mayoralty.

    Was this entirely true? Perhaps, perhaps not. Hylan was no gruff old conservative but the Sulzers and Roosevelts of the world nonetheless did little to actively help him; he was a reformer at heart, but his more reformist ideas were easily outflanked by Hillquit who also ran on municipal ownership of the city's subways. Ironically, considering the reputation Socialists had at the time in Western states, it was a Liberal candidate who played spoiler in William M. Bennett, a dull and uninspiring attorney picked under dubious circumstances by Liberal bosses when other candidates were unwilling to humiliate themselves publicly in what was regarded as a suicidal campaign; Bennett drew about eight percent of the vote, probably a fair indication of President Root's popularity in his home city of New York (or at least a fair representation of how many voters were tied to Wall Street banks). A firm anti-syndicalist and thus a moderate by Socialist standards, Hillquit was able to position himself as a candidate of the tens of thousands of new New Yorkers of the past twenty years, easily winning precincts heavily-occupied by recent immigrants in addition to dominating South Bronx's Jewish neighborhoods (and some middle-class Jewish areas keen to elect the first Jew to the Mansion); he also performed well in the areas most beset by unemployment and disease outbreaks thanks to his pledge to build a dozen new public hospitals in his first term. It was noteworthy, that though Smith was in many ways just as much "the Irish candidate" as Hylan was, he would win landslides in the same wards as Hillquit just a year later, as well as in his return to Albany in 1926.

    Hearst's intervention against Smith may not have been particularly noteworthy to the electorate, but it permanently damaged him with Tammany Hall, which for the first time in two decades would now be locked entirely out of patronage by City Hall with a Mayor even less friendly to them than Roosevelt had been; the gamble by Hearst and Murphy to get a loyal footsoldier into the Mansion had failed, even if narrowly. Murphy's political instincts, once sacrosanct, were called into question; Hearst's insistence on having a direct say in New York Democratic politics from the periphery until he could maneuver his way back into its center was now not a boon but rather baggage. Murphy would be dead in 1921 but his influence faded fast and he avoided unilateral moves in the last years of his life, and now it was Smith - with a foot inside Tammany's doors but also a favorite of the Sulzerites for his work after the Triangle Fire - who stood with clean hands and the ascendant position in New York Democratic circles.

    1917, for a brief moment, suggested as a sea change in New York and potentially national politics - a Jewish, Socialist former Congressman had won the Mayoralty of the biggest city in the country as unemployment and ethnic anxiety fueled an increasingly radical politics, just a year after the war had been won and it was thought the country was to "return to normalcy." But while Hillquit did bring a whole host of Socialist aldermen in on his coattails and governed on a remarkably left-wing "sewer socialist" platform, he would be defeated decisively by "Beau James" Walker in 1921 and left politics for good thereafter; the Socialist Party would elect Fiorello LaGuardia [1] to three terms as Mayor in the 1930s and 1940s, but he governed effectively as an independent with cross-partisan support and the Board of Aldermen's Socialist contingent dwindled to near-nothing by the end of his Mayoralty. The great red tide in New York may have washed up in 1917, but it washed out just as quickly, and when the anti-Liberal tide washed in even greater the next year, it was Smith who surfed that wave into the State House and his first chance at a national platform..." [2]

    - The Happy Warrior

    [1] He was, originally, a Socialist IOTL!
    [2] This was originally going to be a The American Socialists entry, but I found the angle of generational transition from the Hearst/Murphy/Sulzer/Roosevelt crowd to Smith a more interesting hook, especially as we set up Hearst's further attempts to finagle his way back into national prominence with another desired comeback and Smith's emergence as a major Irish Catholic figure of national import
     
    Our New Asia: Revolution and Retrenchment in the Early 20th Century Far East
  • "...propped up by his notoriety as one of the last major figures of the Revolutionary era who was not only a talented guerilla but also one of Bonifacio's closest confidants; [Ladislao] Diwa's re-election by the Supremo was more a reflection of Bonifacio's titanic prestige with the Katipunan than the President's own accomplishments, popularity or credibility.

    This was damaging, both in the short and long term, not only to Diwa the man but to the Katipunan institutionally. Like Bonifacio, Diwa had started off his career as an enthusiastic Japanophile, viewing the Meiji Restoration as a model for a post-independence Philippines and Japan's support for the KKK that ended with outright force against Spain as the foundation of a new relationship in insular East Asia in which the Tokyo-Manila axis would form a backbone of Pan-Asian, anti-colonial sentiment. Times had changed dramatically, however; it was British and, to a lesser extent, French banks which lined Manila's streets, the Royal Navy ensuring no Japanese domination of the Philippines for their benefit rather than Manila's. As the years went on, Diwa had pivoted from one of the most Japanophile figures in Manila to perhaps the most staunchly Anglophile, and he looked less to Japan's transformation of the prior fifty years and instead drew inspiration from the Kuomintang of China, looking positively to its republican nature (in sharp contrast to monarchic Japan), its ideological and financial support of revolutionary organizations across Asia, and the fact that many of its chief leaders were Christian, including many Catholics. Diwa explicitly went so far as to argue that the Katipunan and Kuomintang were kindred spirits, "two sides of one coin," and approvingly acknowledged that Sun Yat-sen had been in part inspired by Andres Bonifacio and Jose Rizal, the two intellectual titans of the Philippine Revolution and in whose shadow Diwa comfortably lived.

    There is a line of thinking in modern Filipino scholarship that suggests that Diwa was, as President, a corrupt old buffoon on the take from British interests, and that he was also more interested in bureaucratic wrangling than the concerns of the people. This is unfair - Diwa's admiration of Britain and China was genuinely felt, and he was often regarded as the best pure politician of his generation who was committed to making the Katipunan a legitimate political party rather than a post-revolutionary oligarchy. That being said, while a famed revolutionary and an incredibly talented backroom operator who would have made an outstanding President for the Philippines of a decade earlier, Diwa was poorly-equipped to handle the emerging ideological and regional splits emerging in the country. Modernizing a bureaucracy with Western help was one thing, but it was not an ideology; defeating warlordism in much of southern Luzon was a major achievement, but it also removed patronage structures locals had relied upon.

    The real problem for Diwa was that it was Japan that had driven off Spain, not Great Britain, and a whole generation of Filipino revolutionaries had come of age, now often with children old enough to hear stories of the war years, gazing longingly at Tokyo. British investors often gobbled up Filipino farmland that had been held in communal property or by the Church as the Western-style financial system allowed liens and foreclosures on surveyed parcels; American mercenaries who had been fighting alongside Filipinos just years before were now overseers, taking British coin on the growing and brutal plantations. Nothing the Anglo-American consortiums emerging in Manila ever did were even close to as bad as the misrule of the friars under Spain, but there was very much a feeling that Diwa's explicit pivot away from Japan had led to a very noticeable regression in the Philippines, from the ugly colonialism of Spain to the soft imperialism of new, smiling, ostensibly liberal foreign powers.

    This was a situation that was untenable and unsustainable to a great many Katipuneros, many of whom wondered what exactly the party they had literally bled for even stood for anymore, or if it stood for anything other than itself. And it was into a crack such as this that a man like Artemio Ricarte could wedge his way in..."

    - Our New Asia: Revolution and Retrenchment in the Early 20th Century Far East
     
    A Toast to the Devil: The Rise and Fall of Prohibition Politics
  • "...Carnarvon Street's theaters, cafes, nightclubs, and smoking lounges; but the true appeal of the city lay in the blocks north and west of the train station, in the opium dens of Chinatown and the brothels, saloons and gambling rooms of Gastown. For those from Washington, which had entered the Union with a strict prohibition on alcohol in its constitution, or Oregon, which had banned most varieties of alcohol after a long, divisive legislative battle that was given a massive boost by wartime distilling restrictions, Vancouver was an easy train ride away (or, in some cases, a journey by boat from the Seattle docks, where liquor flowed like the Puget Sound beneath their feet) and became an enormously appealing weekend destination for all manner of debauched behavior.

    The backlash to "Sincouver" sullying the reputation of the city finally crested in late 1917, however, in part thanks to the election of Henry Herbert Stevens as British Columbia's Premier earlier that year on the Tory line. Stevens had sat on the Vancouver City Council thanks in part to his reputation as the "Vice Crusader," writing polemical exposes of "sinful" establishments in the city and helping oust a chief of police who was not on the take but insufficiently opposed to the operation of such businesses. This reputation had next powered him to serve as a Member of Parliament for Vancouver, from which he had taken on an outsize role in escalating the infamous Ishii Maru incident in 1914 involving Indian immigrants attempting to disembark in Canada and triggered a riot afterwards. In January 1917, he had won an election to become the new leader of the British Columbia Conservative Party, had easily won a by-election to a safe Tory riding, and then called snap polls in which the Tories were returned in a majority, losing only two seats. It was clear, and early on, that Stevens was not at all like his predecessor, the populist and nativist but reformist Richard McBride - Stevens was a devout Methodist, a proud member of the anti-Catholic Orange Order, and he viewed the world in starkly moral terms, which often influenced him to be highly critical of Canada's large, lumbering, and oft-corrupt business conglomerates, as Canada would discover when he briefly served as Prime Minister in the early 1940s.

    By late 1917, Stevens had built up enough support in the BC Legislative Assembly to pass the Liquor Abolition Act, which prohibited all alcohols of greater than 4% from being manufactured, sold, consumed and possessed in the province, one of the harshest such laws in North America (many prohibitionist polities simply regulated the sale of alcohol and did not make a crime of its personal use). He was aided by a pair of companion bills that expanded the ranks of the British Columbia Provincial Police, regarded as one of Canada's finest and most professional, and gave them and the Vancouver Police broad powers to "inspect establishments suspected of breaking the law," an intentionally vague stipulation.

    The first months of 1918 in Vancouver were thereafter thus dominated by what came to be known as the "Rum Raids," in which BCPP and VPS constables kicked down doors and dragged people out into the street to be publicly humiliated for "taking drink," and beer, wine and liquor ran freely down the streets as barrels and bottles were destroyed on the spot rather than confiscated. The heavy-handedness of Stevens' police state morality quickly sparked backlash, however, not least amongst Vancouver's Catholics when a German-majority church was raided at dawn on a Saturday and had its sacramental wine - which exceeded, naturally, the four-percent limit - confiscated and smashed on the parish steps, staining them red like blood; it was a series of events that Catholic Canada would not forget soon, even after Stevens scrambled, under considerable pressure from Ottawa, to avoid such embarrassing episodes again and pass an amendment to the law that exempted sacramental wine specifically.

    As an effort to combat vice in Vancouver, however, the gambit worked; 1918 saw about half as many visitors to Vancouver drinking establishments as the year before, and 1919 fewer still, which badly damaged the city's economy at a time when Canada as a whole was struggling. It also inspired a massive spike in organized crime, with boats from Asia now laden with liquor, and trans-border smuggling of booze by rumrunners and bootleggers now flowed in both directions, concluding in the violent "Whiskey War" of early 1920 in East Vancouver between Italian, German and Chinese smugglers that left twenty-seven dead in shootings, bombings and stabbings over the course of two months. Organized crime, already a staple of Vancouver due to its opium, gambling and prostitution, did not wither from the prohibition of alcohol in that province but rather flourished.

    BC's unusually harsh prohibition, compared to selectively enforced laws in the Prairies or milder alcohol bans with substantial exemptions such as in Ontario or the Maritime Provinces of Nova Scotia and New Brunswick, left Quebec as the sole province that had no regulation of alcohol whatsoever other than ordinances against public drunkenness. This was in part due to Quebec's French Catholic majority and large Irish minority, which steadfastly refused to commit to a set of laws that had become hugely associated with punishing Catholics politically, and also, ironically, due to Anglo-Irish business interests in Montreal who held major stakes in the import of Irish whiskey to Canada, in particular from Ulster, and did not want to add a layer of difficulty to their trade, which often involved the Ontario Provincial Police and local Orange Lodges. This unusual alliance of Quebec's parishes and Orangemen likely helped avoid a federal ban in Canada, and also boosted Montreal's economy, as it became a magnet for people looking for drink and leisure not only from Canada but also firmly teetotal New England.

    The Canadian prohibitionist movement crested with Stevens' moralizing out West in 1918; after Stevens had returned to Ottawa after his Tory government was defeated two months before the 1921 federal elections, a Liberal-Progressive coalition government modified British Columbia's laws to exempt beer and wine entirely and decriminalized personal use of hard liquor in 1922, before fully decriminalizing public consumption and sales in 1930, two years before Ontario fully repealed their own liquor prohibition. Canada's history of prohibition was not unlike that of the United States - tacitly supported federally, governed state-by-state, and hugely beneficial in the formation of organized crime syndicates - and it certainly would not be the last time that the politics of public morals would clash with the politics of what was pragmatic and workable..."

    - A Toast to the Devil: The Rise and Fall of Prohibition Politics
     
    The Firm Hand of Freedom: Soft Imperialism by the United States in Latin America 1917-69
  • "...underscoring the dangers of commodity economies. Rey Sucre, or "King Sugar," was a longtime nickname for the massive and dominant sugar industry in Cuba, the empire of cash crop that had brought so many tens of thousands of enslaved souls to her shores with American support in the 19th century and which still kept Spanish tax coffers well fed. The defeat of Confederate designs on the island and abolition of slavery had, in theory, suggested a different political settlement on the island, perhaps even one that would eventually end with independence, but ironically, at the conclusion of the Great American War and the end of the Confederacy's ability to threaten Cuba with war again, the independence movement of Cuba reached something of a modern nadir.

    There were a variety of reasons for this - the death of Jose Marti in 1915, the erosion of funds from exile groups in New York and Tampa due to the war, the rapid growth of the Spanish economy and immigration to Cuba providing a booming industry in the war years - but the chief one, in the end, was sugar, and the total collapse of its prices in early 1917. Sugar had been one of the few commodities not subject to price floors, but rather a price ceiling, during the Great American War due to the costs of the United States to import it from abroad, and Cuban sugar had flowed freely for the first several years as it had before the war, along with imports from Hawaii and Eastern Europe's sugar beet fields. However, during the war, especially in the state of Idaho, the planting of sugar beets had become a huge industry and by 1916 had offset parts of Cuba's export advantage, and the end of the war and signing of the Treaty of Mount Vernon meant that the United States once again had access to imports from the Confederacy of all raw goods - in particular, sugar grown in Louisiana and Florida, the two states least damaged in the war and the two states best positioned to ship product by boat rather than by rail to American markets.

    This massive postwar glut of sugar in the United States, combined with a sharp drop of agricultural prices in general, devastated the Cuban economy, which had not yet pivoted to tourism. The trade agreement signed between the United States and Spain also gave the United States preferential access to Caribbean markets alongside the Metropole, meaning that indigenous industry in Cuba was hammered not only by Spanish imports but, as the Yankees pivoted to a consumer postwar economy, American ones as well. All this combined into a grievous depression in the late 1910s, arguably one of the worst in Cuban history, that saw thousands decamp the island for work in Spain and hundreds of others in the 1920s move to New York as the island struggled to recover even when sugar prices spiked again when Germany and France, major sugar beet farming countries, went to war in 1919.

    Out of this late 1910s, early 1920s Cuban depression that saw sugar mills, newspapers, banks and so many other businesses shutter came the collapse of the Revolutionary Party and its splintering into factions. The emergent power dynamic that emerged was, ironically, the Liberal Jose Miguel Gomez, who partnered with Mario Garcia Menocal, a staunch conservative on economic matters; both of them were aligned with groups in Spain that were heavily inclined towards centralism but their views veered towards a softer Cuban nationalism than was commonly understood in the Afro-Cuban communities, particularly in the island’s east.

    The crux of the views of these once-and-future rivals was that Cuba’s destiny was inherently linked to that of the New World, not to the Spanish Cortes, and that Cuba needed a “new relationship” to Spain that would allow it its prerogatives, a far cry short of the republicanism that had defined men of Marti’s generation and even Gomez’s previous advocacy. But there was a sense that Cuba needed this moment - with the threat of Confederate intervention gone also left the greatest threat to Cuban sovereignty, and for the white landed and business elite of the island, there was a certainty that Afro-Cuban consciousness would look to Haiti again and the anticipated wellspring of freedom in the post-slavery Confederate States and ask why they did not enjoy similar privileges of de facto equality - and what they would demand to get it…”

    - The Firm Hand of Freedom: Soft Imperialism by the United States in Latin America 1917-69

    (So I’m reading a book on Cuban history and boy is it dark - and the insidious ties between American capital and Cuban labor go way, wayyyyy back to the 1810s)
     
    The Bourbon Restoration: The Confederate States 1915-33
  • "...amendments to the Confederate Constitution could not be proposed by Congress to the states, but rather the same amendment had to be proposed by three separate state legislatures via constitutional conventions in those states, and then passed by two-thirds of state legislatures. This had been in part to avoid fears by the founding generation of Confederate politicians of a Congress hostile to the interests of the states pressuring them to swallow amendments they may not have wanted other than via broad consensus, and also in part to make it difficult to amend the Constitution to change components of it favored by the Confederate elite, namely slavery.

    The challenge of passing the so-called Gunbarrel Amendments thus fell to Patton, and he could only commit in late 1917 to passing one of them - the abolition of slavery, rather than other acts extending broad equal rights to freedmen, which he knew was an absolute nonstarter and would need to be severely delayed, if it ever passed at all. Simply getting "the Third Amendment" over the line was going to be supremely difficult as it was. Thankfully, the total collapse of the slave economy and the deterioration of the Confederate society in 1916 served as a boost to this agenda - by September and October of 1917, when Virginia became the first state to propose the abolition amendment, it had become clear to most everyone in Charlotte that the freedmen were never going to voluntarily go back to being property, and that the United States would never allow that to happen, anyhow. The cat could not be put in the bag, and Patton's argument was that it was best to simply bite that bullet and then work as fast and hard as possible to restore "social order," which everyone understood meant whites at the top and Negroes below them.

    In this endeavor, he was hugely assisted by his fellow Virginian Martin, who while a strong supporter of the planter class was a pragmatist first and ideologue second, and understood the dynamics as well as Patton did. Martin arranged to have the Virginia Legislature convened in Danville, near the North Carolina State Line, on September 30, 1917 rather than in Greensboro in exile as they had previously to avoid the question of whether the constitutional convention was convened "in" Virginia, and subsequently the state of Virginia on October 5, after much heated debate, passed an amendment declaring, "The act of bondage of a person as property to another person or to the State, with the exception of penal labor, is hereby abolished and forbidden." The Third Amendment of the Confederate Constitution had just been proposed.

    Where it could be passed next was a more difficult calculation, especially as the question of how to even conduct the 1917 elections loomed. Patton and Martin, while allies, saw things differently, with Martin wanting to push ahead with more state conventions after the elections and polarize the question, where it was possible, around "ending the Yankee occupation," still convinced that Philadelphia would be satisfied merely with the Third Amendment and would leave by the end of 1918 if it were to pass. Patton was skeptical, to say the least. The explosion of activity by Forrest's NRO in the Midlands since the Anniston Declaration and hillboy activity across Dixie led him to believe that speed was of the essence, and he deliberately went behind Martin's back days after Virginia's passage to arrange for North Carolina to organize a convention in Raleigh on October 20th. Here, he ran into considerable resistance from the "Tar Heel Triumvir" of Julian Carr, Josephus Daniels and Furnifold Simmons, all down-the-line conservatives who were stubbornly hanging on to the idea of some kind of retained slavery once American occupation ceased, and with Patton and Martin both Virginians, they had already expended their single-state influence. Ben Tillman, still bitter over the legislative putsch that Martin had orchestrated in 1915, pointedly refused to rally ravaged South Carolina to the cause of the Third Amendment until it was the third state to do so, and demurred even then.

    The issue thus did indeed slide into the elections in the first week of November, and "elections" is probably a strong word for them. Most Confederate Congressmen stood unopposed simply because there was no secure infrastructure for conducting elections in most states; where elections were held, competing hillboy militias faced off to get preferred candidates elected, and rumors quickly spread of not only insurgents stealing ballot boxes but also the US Army fudging results and freedmen attacking polling places in their fiefdoms. Scholars have, as an experiment, tried for decades to piece together what a free and fair Confederate election could have produced, to little avail; it was absolute chaos on the ground.

    That said, the dynamics of the Congress were little changed, in part due to the lack of opposition to many candidates, and this indeed helped serve to bolster Patton's position. Many of Martin's henchmen were now being whipped to support the Amendment in the heavily-Martinite exile legislatures of Kentucky and Tennessee, which under the watchful eye of Yankee soldiers were temporarily returned to theaters and hotels on the nearest borders of their state lines to quickly hold "shotgun conventions," named so both for their resemblance to a shotgun wedding in speed and coercion and to the very real guns casually held by American troops on their periphery, to pass identical Amendments on November 20 and December 1, respectively.

    The issue thus was to pass on to the states, where it was just as complicated to have legislatures in the Deep South having to try to maneuver full abolition as it had been to arrange the conventions in the first place. Oscar Underwood had just been ejected from the Senate by the Alabama legislature as it gathered in early December to cast votes, likely for his opposition to Patton but probably, one suspects, for his support of the Third Amendment, though his replacement in former Speaker Tom Heflin would in time advocate its passage. Officialdom from the Carolinas was determined not to budge unless they could go last, and states such as Florida and Louisiana where the preponderance of remaining slaves were concentrated were reluctant to move for fear of NRO violence.

    Patton mulled a speaking tour through the country, but acknowledged it was entirely unsafe; the math was that he needed eight states to pass the Amendment, and he could only count on three so far. Accordingly, he made a decision that would haunt him for the rest of his life. On December 21, 1917, as part of his "Christmas Address," he announced that he would resign the Presidency upon the passage of the Third Amendment. He took responsibility for accepting the provisions of Mount Vernon and acknowledged that "this humiliation at Yankee hands" was behind much of the violence in the Confederacy, and he stated that it was his view that "a new paradigm must be found in Charlotte for us to rebuild and heal together, but this cannot happen until the Yankee has evacuated."

    Historians have debated what, exactly, Patton was thinking in sticking his own neck in the guillotine. At face value, he removed much of his leverage over other politicians, weakened as the Confederate Presidency was at that point; it also meant that he was essentially immediately making Tom Martin his successor-in-waiting, as there was little path to the Senate ousting Martin to replace him with a new President pro tem. On the other hand, Patton may have been savvier in that move than he has gotten credit for. The sentiments towards Patton by the most hardened supporters of the NRO can best be described by Forrest's own "Pronouncement from the Appalachian Foothills," a famous polemic of his that is still widely read in Confederate schools today, in which he succinctly stated, "There are "Four Horsemen" of ultimate betrayal - Junius Brutus, Judas Iscariot, Benedict Arnold, and George Patton." While others may not have put it in quite such apocalyptic terms, the political class of the Confederacy did in many ways hold Patton responsible, helped in part by James McReynolds' numerous writings and speeches which laid "our civilizational humiliation" exclusively at Patton's feet and blamed his walk with then-President Hughes for his caving. So in that sense, Patton - who was no fool, contrary to what his enemies may have thought - likely understood that his Presidency was the price of abolition, and abolition was the price of peace. Patton's extensive post-Presidency biography never sought to portray himself as a martyr or noble hero, but he did state definitively that it was necessary for him to fall on his sword and step aside to allow things to move forward.

    Nonetheless, Patton would not lose all his leverage, and it was clear to most legislatures as 1918 came about that Martin had little daylight from Patton in terms of advocating for a quick passage of the Third Amendment so that the Confederacy could start pressing the Yankees out cohesively. There was an incentive for voting him out of office via passing the Amendment, and lo and behold, whipped by Martin's chief lieutenant Duncan Upshaw Fletcher, the Florida legislature next passed the Amendment in early February. Movement was coming - it was just a question of how quickly..."

    - The Bourbon Restoration: The Confederate States 1915-33

    (I'll cop immediately to the fact that I'm not entirely pleased with this thumb on the scale for ending slavery and getting those Amendments passed, and this is more me just needing a solution that can explain away the issue that would dominate Confederate legislatures in 1917)
     
    The Matriarch: Empress Margarita Clementina and the Emergence of a Modern Mexico
  • "...strongest reluctance came, perhaps unsurprisingly, from Louis Maximilian. The Crown Prince, as this book has studiously tried to document, was not an outwardly warm man, especially outside of the confines of the Imperial family. Perhaps unsurprisingly for a man who was shot in the face and lost his left eye at his first communion as a child, he was suspicious of people he did not know, was instinctively untrusting, and kept a very intimate circle of confidants, a circle that after nearly thirty years of marriage, despite his legendary infidelity, including Margarita Clementina and their three eldest sons. "To have earned Louis Maximilian's loyalty is not difficult, for he is not a duplicitous man by nature," Bernardo Reyes once commented. "But to earn his trust? Earn his trust, and you have made the fiercest friend for life."

    As such, the Crown Prince was the biggest roadblock to the plans swirling the Chapultepec to impose a Regency Council on Mexico. He would hear nothing of the arguably less extreme alternative - the Emperor's abdication and peaceful convalescence in whatever years the eighty-five year-old Maximilian had left - not only because he explicitly viewed it as standing "athwart God's will" but because he took it as a personal insult to his father, after fifty-five years on the Mexican throne, "to have to decamp the city into exile now in his twilight of life." Suffice to say, others in the Imperial family did not feel that. Agustin de Iturbide y Green, his adoptive cousin, was at the head of the abdication faction along with his sons, angrily arguing that the Emperor's frail physical and deteriorating mental state made it an impossibility for him to execute his constitutional duties, which under the Mexican system at that time were still substantial; behind closed doors, Agustin openly questioned whether Maximilian knew the name of Bernardo Reyes and derided him as an embarrassment. Louis Maximilian, upon hearing of this, accused Agustin of simply wanting to further his reactionary political goals and suggested brusquely to a friend that his cousin "swim out to his brother," a crude joke about the death of Prince Salvador in the Battle of Cozumel.

    It was Francisco Jose and Carlos who hoped to identify some sort of middle path. The elder of the two, having never quite recovered from his wounds sustained at Los Pasos, pointed out that he himself had debated foregoing his birthright in favor of his brother due to his injuries, and while he was in better shape by late 1917 than he had been on death's door just three years earlier, he nonetheless understood the impulses of those who were concerned the Emperor was in rapid decline, or soon would be. Carlos was more circumspect, but pointed out the numerous crises of the last five years, even before the war; the monarchy had never been more fragile, and as he eloquently put it, "To force Grandfather to stay on the throne to deteriorate alongside its legitimacy may force the Crown to die with him." His chief concern was the perseverance of the Empire, well aware that a Mexican republic would likely represent the same anarchy that had plagued the country before Maximilian, and the open secret that the Emperor's age and health were severely limiting his public interactions was lethal for an Emperor who had always built his legitimacy with his public on his relationship with the public.

    Carlota's intervention was the final one - she took the Crown Prince aside on the afternoon of December 10, 1917, and walked through the Chapultepec gardens, speaking idly about what the palace had looked like when she had arrived in Mexico, and when he'd been born, finally meandering to the point she was trying to make - his father was perhaps not as mentally incompetent as the claims were, but he had definitely lost a step or two just in the last two years, and the struggles were worsening. She predicted, incorrectly, that Maximilian was about to see his last Christmas, and suggested that the Regency was in part his idea, a way for him to preserve some dignity his last year in life while not having to abdicate the throne. Louis Maximilian was still highly reluctant, but he had always been easily swayable by his mother, and he finally conceded.

    As such, on December 17, a document was drafted and put before Emperor Maximilian - which he by all accounts signed fully lucid - in which he declared his son Louis Maximilian the Imperial Regent of Mexico, handling day-to-day tasks of government on his behalf while leaving all ceremonial functions to the Emperor. It was a unique, modern document, delineating specific areas of regency rather than a broad claim of power, designed to take Mexican constitutionalism into account. The Regency was affirmed by the Imperial Assembly on January 8, and with that it took the force of law. A new day was on the Mexican horizon - the hour of Louis Maximilian was at hand, even if it was not his head the crown rested on.

    Yet."

    - The Matriarch: Empress Margarita Clementina and the Emergence of a Modern Mexico
     
    The House of Osman
  • "...the Porte's recognizance that de facto control of Egypt to the extent of other Arab-majority vilayets was virtually impossible, the de jure arrangements post-1882 nonetheless suited their needs just fine and it was an Ottoman flag that flew over the oasis outposts across northeast Africa and that, symbolically at least, protected caravans of merchants and pilgrims across the eastern Sahel. (A token Ottoman force in Benghazi and her garrison in Alexandria certainly helped, too). In this endeavor the "Turks," as Egyptians were quick to dismiss them as, had the full support of France, which by 1917 had transformed Port Said into one of the Mediterranean's most cosmopolitan port cities and entrepots.

    The uneasy fiction of the Khedivate had, surprisingly, endured for thirty-five years under Hussein Kamel Pasha; with the assumption of Egyptian debts by the Ottomans in return for more influence in Egypt and the importance of the Suez Canal, as well as the export of cotton to French and Italian textile factories and establishment of light industries in proximity to the coast, Egypt had emerged just behind the Ottoman Empire proper as the Muslim world's rising power. Hussein Kamel is dismissed in some modern historiography as Constantinople's stooge, but this simplifies a complicated relationship; he was extremely proud to come from the House of Muhammad Ali, and viewed soft Ottoman suzerainty as a hedge against direct European intervention, recalling the shelling of Alexandria by British warships during the 1882 crisis and the time when Egypt's finance and foreign ministries were staffed almost exclusively by Frenchmen; while there were still too many Turks, Greeks and Armenians in the Egyptian bureaucracy for his liking, the Khedive knew that he preferred courtesies towards Constantinople, and not begging for scraps from Paris or London. Nonetheless, the frays in the relationship were starting to emerge apparent upon the eve of the Central European War, and Hussein Kamel's death in October of 1917 at the fairly young age of sixty-three created a severe new strain. Governing virtually unilaterally through Hussein Roshdy Pasha, his Turkish Prime Minister, Hussein Kamel had been the rock upon which the Turco-Egyptian [1] had sat, increasingly precariously, and nobody knew what exactly to expect next.

    The ascension of his son Kamal al-Dine Hussein as Khedive marked a new and uncertain era. Kamal was European-educated and had served in the Austrian Army before returning to Egypt to be named commander-in-chief of the Khedivate's army, which he thoroughly reformed to European standards and used to successfully and ruthlessly crush tribal uprisings across the Sudan. He was married to the daughter of Tewfik Pasha, his father's once-rival for the title of Khedive, thus uniting the House of Muhammad Ali under one roof, and was considered an able administrator, brilliant orator, and cunning operator both inside and outside of Egypt. Most crucially, he was considerably less interested in adhering to de jure Ottoman sovereignty than his father, having quietly for years advocated for a return to pre-1882 arrangements and considered himself both an Egyptian nationalist and an Arabophile, a position that appealed greatly to both Hejazi sheikhs who wanted to see a continued Ottoman retreat from the Arabian Peninsula now with the threat of the House of Saud extinguished for a decade as well as to Arab Christians in Palestine and Lebanon. As 1917 drew to a close, Kamal was not an obscure Ottoman vassal but rather a sensation in Egypt and beyond.

    This alarmed not only the Ottomans but the French as well, and suddenly there were concerns that a crisis not unlike 1882 loomed again in the future. The Canal, though formally internationalized since the Constantinople Convention of 1888, was easily the most important strategic asset under French control, and Port Said was the "jewel of the Near East" in French eyes, thanks in large part to a major naval station located directly across the Canal from it. Prince Sabahaddin was worried enough about Egyptian interests that he traveled personally to Cairo to treat with Kamal, a move for which he was critiqued in the Parliament and amongst his cousins back home who believed that a "vassal comes to his lord, not the other way around;" while Sabahaddin's meeting with Kamal in December 1917 went well and they established a mutual trust, it nonetheless did little to solve the immediate issue of Egyptian ambitions in the Levant and North Africa, and the potential of European powers to use these ambitions not only to their advantage but as a wedge with which to redraw the maps of West Asia..."

    - The House of Osman

    [1] I'm being very pointed in emphasizing Egyptian, rather than Arabic, sentiment here; the Great Arab Revolt and later Arab nationalism were major factors in the forging of a uniform(ish) Arab identity. Even today, many Egyptians regard themselves as Egyptians first, Muslims second, and Arabs third.
     
    Ferdinand: The Last Emperor
  • "...Andrassy's pledge to expand the male electorate even further and pass a secret ballot along with it, meant to appeal not just to the intransigent Greens but also to the Emperor, who saw the best avenue to Vienna's further control of Hungary being more minorities, particularly Slovaks and Romanians, included in the franchise. Andrassy was a staunch loyalist and his descriptions of Karolyi are not fit to print; however, he was a fundamentally pragmatic man, a technocrat and diplomat at heart, and took the long view that the crisis that the Dual Monarchy found itself in could not be solved merely by window-dressing but real, tangible negotiation and compromise "that would pain all, but for the benefit of the many."

    The issue that faced Andrassy was twofold, however. One, he was even less open to Green ideas about a full constitutional renegotiation of the Compromise than Bethlen had been, and Andrassy held Karolyi responsible for Bethlen's failure. The second was that the positions of Karolyi and the other Milan Magyars, as well as the position of Vienna, had also hardened considerably over the previous six months. Accordingly, the December Crisis erupted at the end of 1917 as Karolyi declared from the balcony of the Swiss chalet where he was wintering [1] to a small crowd that "it shall be the course of our partisans in Budapest to defeat any and every measure brought forth in the Diet until constitutional reform is achieved." In case one struggled to read between the lines of what Karolyi was saying, it was a direct threat to bring down the Hungarian government and effectively filibuster every act in the Diet unless his demands mere met, and his proposed Compromise - or some new version of it - was the only acceptable outcome.

    Ferdinand was outraged, and a headline from the Sunday Times in London summed up the situation succinctly: "Hungary Hostage!" Karolyi's popularity in other capitals declined sharply, and as the situation in Budapest grew darker over the course of December, King Victor Emanuel pondered refusing to allow Karolyi's return from Switzerland to Milan, but was persuaded by French diplomats not to in order to avoid escalating the situation further. Worsening the situation was inevitable, however, with the impasse showing no signs of breaking. Andrassy, unlike Bethlen, was not willing to humiliate himself on the floor of the Diet and had absolute confidence that the Greens were not bluffing, as they had shown no signs of bluffing previously in the prior year. Accordingly, he journeyed to Vienna in late December to consult with Ferdinand and chart out a course forward.

    Andrassy's prewar diaries are an excellent primary source of the various machinations ongoing in Vienna during these critical days and weeks, and they do not reflect well on Ferdinand, Karl von Sturgkh, or anyone in the Prague Circle. Andrassy was a reliable conservative in the contours of the Austro-Hungarian Dual Monarchy but showed a number of liberal tendencies (particularly on economics) and, while quite a devout man, was skeptical of the kind of "nationalist Catholicism" that was increasingly in vogue in Vienna amongst the Emperor's nearest advisors. His depiction of Vienna was, unsurprisingly for such an astute political operator, one of a city that was just as much in crisis as Budapest, only that where "everyone can see the conflict in Hungary looming overhead like a thunderstorm, in Cisleithnia there is no sense of urgency, just babble." What he was referring to specifically was the increasingly agitated politics of minority parties in the Imperial Landsrat, particularly the Young Czech Party; Viennese attended parliamentary debates for entertainment, not because they were high-minded experts in public policy but rather because the speeches were long, meandering and fiery, as amusing as opera or the theater and, unlike those diversions, free of charge to the general public. Andrassy himself commented on the immense irony that at just the moment that the Habsburg Crown was most reliant on "national minorities" in Hungary to preserve the throne, it was several national minorities in the other half of the Empire that were bringing the gears of state to a grinding halt.

    The trip to Vienna solved little and caused only more problems. Berchtold asked pointedly how to "navigate Scylla and Charibdys," to which Andrassy replied that, fundamentally, there was no solution that did not involve either conceding to Karolyi or simply ruling by decree. Either way, he observed, the spirit of '67 was effectively dead in Hungary; the country could either be a dictatorship within Austria, or a democracy outside of it. Ferdinand was aghast and exploded in a tirade in which he accused the Magyars of treason against the Crown, denouncing Karolyi in particular. Andrassy attempted to calm the room by suggesting that there were some ideas in Karolyi's putative Compromise that were perhaps worth considering, first and foremost relying upon the Palatine of Hungary as a true viceregal representative; he also pointed out that Ferdinand's delay in arranging a coronation in Budapest to symbolically take the Crown of St. Stephen had offended the Hungarian street, and that such a coronation should occur posthaste. Eventually, though, all roads led to one place - Hungary was currently ungovernable, and as long as the Greens and Reds sat in the Diet, there could be no solution.

    Dismayed by this outcome, Andrassy returned dutifully to Budapest on December 29, 1917 and announced that afternoon the suspension of the Diet of Hungary, under the reason that there "was no possibility of it functioning to pass laws on behalf of the Magyar public." The adjournment was initially intended to last only three month, even though formally it was indefinite; in practice, the Diet of Hungary would not reconvene again until the conclusion of the Central European War, when the political realities of the country were very different. Andrassy thus became the autocratic Prime Minister of the Transleithnian realm, with every emergency decree he filed taking the force of law; he decreed a two-year extension of the existing Compromise through January 1, 1920, hoping that this would buy time for a major renegotiation of the Dual Monarchy's superstructure that could appease both Vienna and Magyar nationalists.

    There was little way this maneuver could indeed have worked even in the best of times, but things were made considerably worse just three weeks later on January 23rd, 1918, when Karl von Sturgkh followed Andrassy into the brink and announced an indefinite adjournment of the Landsrat due to the frequent filibustering and political gridlock, choosing to himself rule by emergency decree. Effectively, both halves of Austria were now absolute monarchies again, their democratic organs "temporarily" suspended, and Ferdinand ruling directly through appointed cabinets of ministers close to himself or the Prague Circle. It was a remarkably quick extinguishing of one of Central Europe's budding young democracies and tipped the hand on the vision Ferdinand had for the long term: a centralized Habsburg state, with Vienna empowered, fundamentally tied to Church and Crown..."

    - Ferdinand: The Last Emperor

    [1] Real man of the people, Mihail Karolyi
     
    The Central European War
  • "...a strange sense of geopolitical optimism at Foreign Ministries across the world as 1918 dawned. India and Vietnam were both pacified by their colonial powers, and it looked highly likely that Ireland would be solved; the Great American War had been over for near a year and the Western Hemisphere's economies looked likely to be functional again soon; and in Europe, there were no immediate signs that war clouds were on the horizon, indeed the likelihood of a general war on the continent appeared more remote than ever.

    But under the hood of this quiet peace the moving parts were increasingly more clear, between Austrian instability, Italian ambition, German opportunism, and most importantly French paranoia, particularly abroad. The chess pieces were being assembled on the board as 1918 came about, with the maneuvers of that most critical last year of the Belle Epoque ready to be made, and the road to war nearly charted..."

    - The Central European War
     
    Ireland Unfree
  • "...the most critical gamble in the history of Ireland. Redmond knew, of course, that his health was failing, and that he had at best six months to live, possibly less if he kept up the rigors of his schedule at the Irish Convention. The forces against compromise "coalesce in the dark," he wrote ominously in a private letter to his oft-rival Dillon, "and if we do not seize the hour, they will surely in time overwhelm us."

    John Redmond's most important speech of his life was thus given on January 4, 1918, as the Convention reopened. Holding up the signed document from Midleton outlining a substantial concession - that Westminster would devolve the powers of customs and excise to an Irish Parliament on the condition that this proposed Parliament did not levy customs in excess of Westminster's rates against any other member of the British Empire such as Canada or Australia, essentially cementing the soft version of the Federation - he announced his "unqualified support for this compromise" and suggested that the "time for Ireland is today." Key to Midleton's letter had been the note from Chamberlain personally that if "substantial agreement" was found (in other words, if most parties excluding Ulster found this arrangement workable) then Westminster would proceed apace to vote through such an act, though Redmond suspected, correctly, that Chamberlain would have to call an election on the question, as the time of his agreement with Barnes was fast running out and the Parliamentary numbers were too fragile to ram through this very radical Home Rule solution.

    It is important to note here just how radical the New Year's Day Agreement, as it came to be known, was in contrast to even Home Rule bills from earlier proposals. The Irish would "evacuate" Westminster entirely, to be represented exclusively by the Irish Assembly, which would have a House of Commons of one hundred and sixty-five Members of the Assembly, and a Senate with sixty-four members elected to rotating ten-year fixed terms divorced from national elections, with each county represented by two members. Further, safeguards would be put in place for provincial and county authority; each county would have a strongly empowered local board in charge of roads and housing, and if a majority of Senators from one of the four provinces voted against an act of the Commons, that was sufficient to delay its passage by a period of a year, in which time it would be reintroduced to the Senate for an up-down vote; this was officially termed the "provincial courtesy" in Redmond's diaries, but it was widely understood to be a provision to mollify Ulster's concerns about being outnumbered and overrun by Southern nationalists, and thus in time came to be known colloquially - and ruefully - as the "Ulster Veto." [1]

    What this meant was that, unlike early requests, Ireland would have no House of Lords that protected the almost uniformly Protestant Irish aristocracy with the same means that the British counterpart did; it meant that the highly emotional schools question, on which the Catholic hierarchy had been rigidly opposed to compromise, was punted to a future Irish Assembly to solve (a note which Ulster's representatives were quick to point out), and that on every fiscal question, the Nationalists and the moderate Southern Unionists had won out. Ireland would stay inside the British Empire, with the King as their sovereign and the privilege of the Lord Lieutenant as his viceroy rather than a mere Governor-General, such as in the Dominions; but there was no question that this was the maneuver that went beyond Grattanism and made Ireland a Dominion, rather than a co-Kingdom such as Austria and Hungary (news of frequent and worsening constitutional crises in Hungary throughout 1917 surely had an impact on Redmond's thinking here, even if there is no written evidence for it). [2]

    Somehow, after nearly four years of bloodshed and sectarian hate in Ireland, the forces of compromise came together. Carson, splitting from Craig, viewed the protections of the Midleton Agreement as sufficient to protect Ulster interests and quietly supported the deal, confident that there would be no better arrangement for Ulster in the offing. [3] Samuel moved quickly in the afternoon of the 4th to take a preliminary vote on the question, and was pleasantly surprised [4] when it achieved near-unanimity from those present. The Irish Convention had done its job, even if much remained - it had produced a settlement for Ireland, by Irish representatives. The hour of an Irish Dominion governed by the Irish exclusively was nigh.

    Of course, there was one critical step remaining - the passage of a Government of Ireland Act under the auspices produced by the Convention, and for that the onus now moved to Westminster and Austen Chamberlain, at exactly the moment when many Ulster Loyalists and Catholic nationalists began to sour on the agreement produced...."

    - Ireland Unfree


    [1] These provisions are of my own invention
    [2] As Dan pointed out, but I was already working on this update and thus was able to weave his thoughts in
    [3] This is actually true to OTL - Carson had come around to some level of openness around a compromise by the time of the Irish Convention and turned against it when it was clear Sinn Fein was firm on full and total republicanism and separation. With Sinn Fein just a Grattanist outfit here and Redmond/Devlin in control, and the considerable safeguards for Ulster built into this agreement, he is okay with it.
    [4] Here is the key difference - the OTL Convention's chairman, Plunkett, adjourned for two weeks rather than take a vote on the deal on a day when everybody was ready to cut one. This gave Sinn Fein, nationalist bishops, and conservative Ulstermen the chance to start campaigning against it, and Redmond's health got a lot worse, and Devlin blew up the deal and Redmond decided not to break with Devlin. They were so, so close to an actual United Ireland in January of 1918.
     
    The Root of the Problem: The Tumultuous Term of America's 29th President
  • "...assumption that remains today that Stimson was forced out at the War Department, or resigned in frustration. The latter is probably closer to the truth, though what led to Stimson's retirement from the Cabinet and return to New York to practice law was less frustration than exhaustion and burnout; Stimson had in the war years been legendary for getting as little as four hours of sleep a night and for having a dedication to his work that likely shaved several years from his life. Stimson's good friend from New York and chief deputy Mayhew Wainwright was appointed as his replacement, and Stimson never ceased regarding Root as not just a colleague but a mentor - a falling out between the men was not what ended Stimson's tenure at War in January of 1918.

    The longstanding hearsay and rumors about Stimson's exit find their origin in the times themselves, with stories quickly circulating about Stimson resigning because he had been overruled by Root in favor of Mellon too many times, or his disagreement with how the occupation of the Confederacy was being conducted - Roosevelt's Journal in particular tried to land a salacious interview with the famously reserved Stimson, only to fail. There was a kernel of truth to the idea that not all was well at the War Department, however, though that was not necessarily Stimson's fault, and Wainwright was perhaps unfairly left holding the bag in public perception as well. The fact was that the transition from total war to occupation had not been smooth, despite Stimson and Wainwright's best efforts, and much of that blame can be laid at the feet of Peyton March, the new Army Chief of Staff. March had been an outstanding deputy to Bliss during the war and was an able modernizer and liaison to civilian leadership, which was what he had been primarily tasked with as Deputy Chief of Staff. Once in the main job, however, much of the strategy and logistics of the job were increasingly on his plate, and while he was not without talent and insight, he was found wanting for the task. In particular, March badly underestimated the manpower that would be needed to successfully occupy the Confederacy, and his focus on modernizing and streamlining Army kit and procurement in the wake of the war after the outrages outlined in both LaFollette Reports took up too much of his attention. He was also constitutionally unable to set aside his distaste for John Pershing, now his own Deputy Chief of Staff, whom he resented for having been given more stars than him (thus nominally outranking him) and he suspected that Pershing was, on behalf of a slew of other officers such as John Harbord, the source of the sentiments that he was downplaying the threat that hillboys and NRO militias in Dixie actually posed to the Army.

    Wainwright did his best to manage this clash of personalities within the General Staff and, to his credit, halted further demobilization plans, as Stimson on his way out suggested to him that they had indeed under-prepared for the occupation initially. It was not enough, however. Stimson was something of a public hero, the bespectacled and modest technocrat who had rescued the war effort at the nadir of the Hughes Presidency, and with Root's popularity already well in the tank, the sight of his most capable Cabinet Secretary going out the door was taken not just as the ordinary turnover of public office but as a confidence crisis.

    Less than a few weeks after Stimson had left, an actual crisis reared its head, one which he may have been better positioned to solve. Stimson had regarded the suspension of the Grain Board the previous spring as a colossal mistake and despite his personal antipathy towards the strikers in Minneapolis, he considered what unfolded over the summer of 1917 across the Upper Midwest as an inevitable and understandable downstream effect of that mistake. Accordingly, Stimson had been the most resistant figure in the Administration to the idea of re-privatizing the railroads, an endeavor in which he found he had unlikely allies in Congressional Democrats; Stimson believed that nationalized railroads through the USRA, which fell under the purview of the War Department, were necessary for the occupation to function. Every time Root debated promulgating an executive order, often encouraged by Mellon, to begin the process, it was Stimson who angrily objected. Wainwright, though Stimson's good friend and ideological fellow traveler in many ways, lacked that same cachet.

    Root nonetheless had listened to Stimson enough to understand that a full and total privatization similar to the abolition of the Grain Board would be too much of a shock to the depressed economy and thus devised a plan to gradually wind the USRA down, region by region. Executive Order 1108 was drafted on February 10th, 1918, which would starting on April 30th return rolling stock and locomotives in six states in New England and four states in the Pacific Northwest to private operators while keeping the trackage in public ownership; on July 31st, similar provisions would be made in the Upper Midwest, and on October 31st all trackage in the United States would be open to private operators once again. This on its own was not necessarily controversial, and indeed is how freight rail and some low-budget passenger services in the United States operate today: private rolling stock on public rights-of-way via negotiated contract and rates. What was controversial was a provision of the order which proposed selling the trackage back to private operators in competitive auctions in full by December 31st, 1920 - ten days before Root's term would end.

    The contents of the Order were published, as all non-secret executive orders were, and the public reaction was immediately swift and angry. Logistically, after nearly four years, there weren't even private operators left to take over by late April, which meant that trusts and conglomerates would need to be formed on the quick and, considering some of the personalities in Root's orbit, it seemed inevitable that Liberal cronies would quickly snap up ownership of those routes. Beyond simply the practical difficulties and potential for corruption, the idea of the hated rail trusts returning after the war irked millions of Americans, but the biggest obstacle was labor in the ARU and its fiery leader, Eugene Debs.

    The ARU had won significant concessions during the war on working hours and conditions in exchange for not striking and for accepting wage caps; Debs was already frustrated with Stimsonite leadership at the USRA for dragging their feet on getting wage controls removed as he had been promised, and despite their frequent and considerable political disagreements Debs was genuinely dismayed to see Stimson go, because at least he was confident the man would keep his word even when he told him what he didn't want to hear. But the deals struck with the USRA had been struck with the USRA, and there was no guarantee that private railroads would honor such agreements, and for as angered as Debs was about the lack of forward progress, what he refused to countenance was backsliding in the rights and privileges of his critical union.

    As such, he requested a meeting, personally, with Root on February 18th, 1918 at the Lemon Hill Mansion in Philadelphia's emerging "Federal Quarter." Mellon and Wainwright were present as well; Debs considered it a poor omen that James J. Davis, the Labor Secretary, was not present as well, much as Debs loathed Davis. [1] Debs, despite being vehemently opposed to any form of re-privatization, elected not to start off his meeting with the President with a threat and instead came to "express his concerns" about the contours of the executive order, namely that it did not seem to contain any guarantees of the ARU's wartime privileges. Root was about to answer when Mellon audibly scoffed, which according to Debs made Wainwright rub his face in consternation. Root tried to politely suggest that "war makes for strange bedfellows," which only angered Debs more, and the labor chieftain pointedly stated that "we will not retreat an inch from the ground we have won, as our soldiers would not have retreated an inch at the Susquehanna!"

    Had the more diplomatic Stimson still been around, the meeting may have gone better; indeed, Debs could probably have just gone to him directly, or perhaps Stimson would have interceded before Order 1108 was even drafted. It went worse from there, with Mellon dismissing railroad workers as "upjumped rabble" and storming out after telling Debs he should learn his place; Root tried to salvage matters by telling Debs he would "consider" his input, but he declined to guarantee legislation solidifying the ARU's rights and made things worse when he refused to pressure the ICC, which traditionally regulated railroads, into formalizing regulations accordingly if privatization were to forge ahead. Debs stated bluntly at that point that "we shall not go unprotected," and thanked Root for his time. The next day, he announced from the steps of Philadelphia City Hall that the ARU would call a national railroad strike if the proposed privatization moved ahead as planned, and would not cease until "we are either shot by the National Guard, or we have prevailed."

    It goes without saying that many ARU locals were less than excited about Debs' proclamation or his militancy on the matter, having grown comfortable and cozy with the establishment during the war, but Debs' centralized, top-down leadership of the industrial syndicate made direct opposition difficult. As such, the clock was ticking down the days until a rail strike would indeed start, a rail strike that would cripple American transport from coast to coast and be the most massive labor action since the 1880s, dwarfing even the Midwestern strikes of the Red Summer - indeed, a national rail strike by the ARU would have likely been one of the largest strike actions in history. It was avoided, albeit narrowly, by Root quickly withdrawing the Order at March's angry demand, with the general stating that the occupation would collapse overnight if the rail system was crippled. More militant laborists proposed proceeding with the strike anyways to rid of wage controls, but Debs did not want to overplay his hand, sensing that he may already have damaged his public credibility as it was.

    Indeed, only Democrats came out of the ordeal strengthened, and that was by having not touched it at all. The Rail Crisis of 1918 turned thousands of Americans who were drifting left after the labor actions of 1917 off of Debs specifically and the Socialist Party generally, with Democrats once more cementing their position as the moderate face of organized labor, and the affair also made Root look even more inept and craven than he already did, at crosswinds of being pushed into unpopular positions by Mellon and then stared down immediately thereafter by Debs' threat. Roosevelt's Journal gloated, "Who governs?", a catchphrase that would immediately become part of American lexicon ahead of the 1918 midterms. Root's Presidency was already spiraling from events outside of his control - but as the Rail Crisis reveals, he was nonetheless often his own worst enemy when it came to matters where he could make decisions..."

    - The Root of the Problem: The Tumultuous Term of America's 29th President

    [1] As did most of organized labor
     
    A Bavarian Daughter in the House of Bonaparte
  • "...unique to the period; modest in appearance, ambition and personality as she may have been, Helmtrud had indeed created just as much of a power node around herself in Annecy as the Dowager-Empress Eugenie had in Biarritz, and Eugenie's continued physical and mental decline on the southwest coast was creating a remarkable vacuum for nobles, priests, businessmen and of course vain politicians who wanted an alternative path to influence that did not involve Poincare's rigid cabal of advisors or having to break through the wall of clergymen and other vapidly devout retainers who surrounded the Emperor like a gaggle of squawking crows.

    At Annecy, Helmtrud could also more easily entertain her massive extended family, and it was at Annecy in late January of 1918 that a critical event occurred, in her own life and in European history, during the visit of her brother Prince Franz of Bavaria. Crown Prince Rupprecht, his wife and children had been at Annecy for Christmas and returned, but left Franz behind to spend the following month there, and it was there and then that Franz revealed to Helmtrud a curious thing: that he had been asked by the Kaiser of Germany, personally, to serve as minister to the Habsburg Court in Austria.

    It is important to understand the relationship between Helmtrud and Franz - her brother was about a decade older than her but only recently married, to Isabella Antonie of Croy, and had always had a semi-fatherly relationship with Helmtrud due to the age gap, treating her more like daughter than sister as they got older. Though now with three (and soon to be four) children of his own, there was nonetheless still a unique closeness between the two of them that Helmtrud did not share with any of her other siblings, particularly not Rupprecht or Karl. His children were of an age with the twins, and Franz alone seemed to understand that Josephine and Louise-Amalie were not Alfie's. Most importantly, despite their eleven-year age difference, Franz trusted Helmtrud's advice, especially as he had been impressed with how she had so doggedly navigated the toxic familial politics of the House of Bonaparte and thriven in the belly of the beast, even as she withdrew often to Annecy for her own sanity.

    The offer to go to Vienna was not surprising on its face. Bavarians and Austrians spoke a similar dialect of German, shared the Catholic faith, and their royal families were deeply intertwined by centuries of strategic marriages. Much like Bavarian princes had, since 1868, informally used Cambodia as a training ground for learning diplomacy and the art of war (including Franz, who had been there in the early 1900s with a deployment to China in the Boxer War in the middle), the Prussian bureaucracy in Berlin often preferred to dispatch Catholic Bavarians as diplomats to the Habsburg capitals of Vienna and Budapest due to their comfort and familiarity with that land. Franz, though a junior son of the King of Bavaria, was thus a typical envoy that someone like Kaiser Heinrich might pick, even if he personally lacked much diplomatic experience.

    The ask came at a critical time in German-Austrian relations, however, which had been souring for years and had turned especially grim after Austrian Emperor Ferdinand's subtle overtures to Berlin had been bluntly rebuffed, panicking the French establishment and convincing military planners in both Paris and Vienna that "the Prussians," as they exclusively called the German government, saw both parties as so weak that it cared little for diplomacy. This had led directly to a rising sentiment at the turn of 1917 to 1918 that a war against ascendant Germany was perhaps necessary in the next few years before they fell too much further behind. Franz, a level-headed and amiable man, was to be the tip of the spear in cooling these tensions and, perhaps, extending a helping hand to the Viennese court on solving their increasingly thorny problems dealing with the Hungarian dissidents who had essentially broken constitutional governance in that realm.

    Franz was unsure, though, what with his three infant children and Isabella Antonie now pregnant again. Helmtrud reassured him of his capabilities and pointed out the flattery that Kaiser Heinrich himself had picked him as an ambassador. She also noted that, despite rising tensions throughout the last two years across Europe, war seemed highly unlikely, and Franz could be a major piece of keeping it that way, not knowing how crucial his presence in Vienna in late 1918 would be to the total collapse of relations just a year later.

    Historians have debated whether Helmtrud's intervention had anything to do with politics - did she want somebody she trusted in the mix in Vienna? Did she see some advantage for France in having her dear brother representing Germany? It is hard to see, but her persuasion worked. Upon returning to Munich, Franz noted to Berlin that he accepted his assignment and made preparations to head to Vienna. The die towards the Central European War was now, unbeknownst to everyone around Europe, fully cast..."

    - A Bavarian Daughter in the House of Bonaparte
     
    A Time of Atrocity: An Accounting of Crimes Committed in the Great American War
  • "...Bliss had been deeply, personally offended by the massacres, reprisal killings, and organized sanctioned rapes as a tool of intimidation carried out in Maryland and Central Pennsylvania in the first year of the war, and one of his last acts as Chief of Staff in February of 1917 as the contours of Mount Vernon were debated had been to submit an order to organize tribunals to cry Confederate war criminals at the conclusion of the conflict. Peyton C. March, Bliss' more professorial and managerial successor, continued with this work and appointed chief signals officer George Squier to pursue this mission.

    Squier was picked in part because his role as signals officer was no longer crucial in peacetime, and in party because he was regarded as a brilliant organizational mind, but he was no jurist, and that quickly became apparent. Squier attempted to recruit justices of the Supreme Court to lead such tribunals and was politely rebuffed; he instead found a future Supreme Court Justice in Roscoe Pound, then the dean of the Harvard School of Law, to put these tribunals on instead, with Justice William Morrow providing pro bono advice. Pound is regarded as a titan of the Court and of legal scholarship today, but his brief time in 1917-18 attempting to put Confederate war criminals on trial was not his finest hour, through little fault of his own. It is true that many of the military judges he recruited to join him in chairing the tribunals had little legal experience, with the tribunals intended to have a hybrid civilian-military function that simply served to blur the lines; it is also true that Pound's knowledge of military law was weak compared to his deep knowledge of sociological law, constitutional history and appellate procedure.

    Nonetheless, he put his best into it, but the bigger issue was creating genuine proof of crimes. Confederate soldiers rarely if ever willingly testified against each other, often having to be dragged in as prisoners by American GIs, and it was more than once revealed on the stand that their testimony was suborned by promises of rations or threats of violence. Pound was adamant that his proceedings would not become a kangaroo court and he was quick to drop any case which he was not confident he could win a unanimous conviction from as he settled into his role of prosecutor rather than judge; less than one in five cases he initially took up along with his growing team ever made it to the tribunals, and less than half of those won convictions.

    By early 1918, military brass had begun expressing skepticism over Pound's endeavor, and indeed he would be relieved of his duties at the end of the year. Confederate General Alexander Dade, held responsible for the atrocities in Maryland, was in the wind, later revealed to have fled to Cuba in a time before extradition between the United States and Spain. Nobody from Company R identified themselves or their comrades, at least not with evidence firm enough for Pound, and thus prosecuting what had gone on at the systematic level quickly fell apart. The Pound Commission, as the prosecutorial team was known, was relegated to prosecuting small-bore, one-off war crimes, hardly the splashy trials of senior Confederate officials like Dade or Hugh Scott that Bliss had envisioned.

    It was also the case that many in the Army brass had, by the spring of 1918, grown supremely frustrated by the legalism in the face of a grim and extended occupation and had essentially taken the leash off of their own men, most prominently James Harbord, whose occupation zone of Alabama, Georgia and Florida quickly became infamous for the brutality that Yankee troops began operating under towards the local population, using freedmen militias as auxiliaries and deploying interrogation techniques that would be charitably classified as torture. As assassinations and ambushes roiled Dixie, Yankee infantry became increasingly unwilling to stand by as they were aggressively targeted, and men like Harbord turned a blind eye to their behavior in an act of tacit approval. [1]

    Pound's mutually-beneficial resignation in December 1918 saw the efforts for tribunals wound down quickly; the attempt to bring Confederate war criminals to justice was, in most respects, a failure, and left both sides deeply embittered as extrajudicial punishment surged in its place..."

    - A Time of Atrocity: An Accounting of Crimes Committed in the Great American War

    [1] I'm willing to indulge a bit of character assassination of James Harbord mostly because he was allegedly (as was Admiral William Sims) involved in the "Business Plot" as accused by Smedley Butler. I personally am unconvinced that the conspiracy Butler alleged was as vast as he claimed, but for literary and fictional purposes having some military officers who OTL had a bit of an ugly postwar reputation serves my purposes just fine.
     
    A Toast to the Devil: The Rise and Fall of Prohibition Politics
  • "...for whatever the Prohibition Party had hoped to accomplish, the lack of a full wartime ban as they had hoped for proved there were limits to what they could accomplish, and a powerful cross-partisan alliance of "wets" had formed by the end of the conflict to prevent anything even approximating it. It was true that Liberals were, on general, much more likely to support prohibition east of the Mississippi while support for temperance was fairly bipartisan to its west; it was also the case that most Western states, with the exception of California and Oregon, had entered the Union with constitutional prohibition already built into their governing documents, or in the progressive spirit of the early 1910s drafted new constitutions that did so, such as in Dakota, Colorado, or even Midwestern Indiana. This created an ample block of drys in the Democratic ranks, but also a block who were less worried about passing a nationwide prohibition, as their states were already very prohibitive, and as 1918 came about the sense was increasingly on the Democratic side that the question of drink was one which badly split their party in an age (such as the case of Oregon, where feuding over it had become an internecine bloodbath) where they otherwise agreed on a great many things, in particular their contempt for President Root.

    The votes were there for a law against alcohol at the federal level, but not a full constitutional ban, as the Prohibition Party had hoped, and Root, already embattled by the spring of 1918, elected to simply split the difference. The Milwaukee Beer Riots had badly burned his predecessor Hughes, who as a personal teetotaler felt much more strongly about the matter than Root ever did, and with enough on his plate - especially his much stronger opposition to women's suffrage, another parallel issue of the day - Root was unwilling to further damage Liberal prospects in strongly wet states like Wisconsin or his native by expending his political capital on a draconian Prohibition. The Liberal-controlled Congress thus pressed ahead with a bill that suited his views, as well as those of Democratic drys from the West, without offending wet Democrats and Liberal moderates on the question: the Interstate Liquor Control Act, which would govern American alcohol law at the federal level until its repeal in 1946.

    The ILCA was composed of two parts, the Interstate Liquor Transport Regulation Policy and the Liquor Import Prohibition Policy, and they worked in tandem. Effectively, the ILCA did not ban the personal possession or consumption of alcohol, nor its production, as many drys had demanded, Rather, it made it a federal felony to transport liquor, wine or beer with an alcohol by unit content in excess of ten percent (modified to twelve percent in 1933) across state lines, regardless of whether the states it was moving between internally regulated or banned liquor. The import rules were even stricter - with the exception of light beer with an alcohol content of five percent or less, all alcohol was banned from being imported into the United States from neighboring countries or from overseas by train and boat or, by the late 1920s, by plane.

    Temperance activists had spent decades building to this moment and thus were enormously frustrated; the ILCA did little more than make permanent the interstate commerce controls put in place during the war but relaxed a number of the Grain Board's restrictions on breweries and distilleries, and they were not wrong that the ILCA was a half-loaf compromise that only solved part of the problem. It was a mixed bag for Root; soft drys were generally happy with the Act, which the oft-Protestants viewed as largely targeting Catholics they did not trust or like, and the majority of them already lived in dry states in the West or New England. Midwestern wets were, by and large, fairly unaffected, and vibrant brewing and distilling economies exploded in places like Wisconsin, Illinois, New Jersey and New York where alcohol laws were fairly lax, at least as compared to Pennsylvania, Indiana and Ohio. But hard drys felt betrayed after years of building grassroots support through the Liberal Party, and many wets were skeptical that the ILCA would be the end of it. Politically, Root considered the ILCA the end of the war; for others, the battle had simply shifted back again to the states, this time with a growing "Liquor Control Agent," or "Lickies," often former veterans eager for work, supporting them to prevent transport across state lines and enforce the law federally..." [1]

    - A Toast to the Devil: The Rise and Fall of Prohibition Politics

    [1] So this is my long-previewed "split the difference" on Prohibition. Root IOTL was pretty skeptical of Prohibition compared to many of his peers so this seemed to fit his personality well, and without the South, the votes aren't there for Volstead/18A. This is still a pretty strong Prohibition in many ways, but well short of OTL, especially with a number of wet states - especially major ones like Wisconsin, Illinois and New York - redoubts of legal alcohol that can definitely avoid the Lickies as it fans out across the country surreptitiously
     
    Pinsk Protocol
  • "...medieval castle town at the confluence of the Pripyat and the Pina. Jagow commented in his memoirs on his aversion for Pinsk; even in late February, the air around the famed Pripyat Marshes was clammy, the people "had the mad look of a hard, hungry winter in their eyes," and he noted that "something simply feels different when one has crossed over from Germany into Russia, especially once one has left Congress Poland behind". Jagow was of Prussian nobility but he was a man of the Altmark, rather than east of the Oder; this was very much not his type of country. It was not the first time Jagow had journeyed to Russia, of course, but he had typically made his way to St. Petersburg by boat or train, avoiding places like Pinsk on the periphery of the heavily Jewish, agrarian and impoverished Pale of Settlement. But this was no typical trip to Russia - this one was done by secret.

    Gottlieb von Jagow was a competent but unspectacular foreign minister who got on well with the Kaiser and not quite as well with Fürstenburg, but yet his name is on the two most important policies of Germany in the prewar period - not just the Jagow-Malcolm Concordat firmed at Hamburg in February 1916 which divided Portuguese Austral-Africa between them and settled all Anglo-German colonial disputes, but also the Pinsk Protocol, also known for some time as the Jagow-Sazonov Treaty for the two men chiefly instrumental in signing it. Sergei Sazonov, the canny and experienced Russian foreign secretary, met Jagow in Pinsk and entertained him with grouse hunting, traditional Byelorussian dance, and excellent brandy; he also negotiated both public and secret protocols for a deal between Germany and Russia that would fundamentally shape geopolitics in Europe for the next decade.

    While Jagow's trip to Pinsk was a secret, the terms of the final March 3rd [1] agreement between Berlin and St. Petersburg on the Polish border were not. In publicly released terms, the two governments signed a treaty re-stipulating their support for the current Polish border between Germany, Russia and Austria (Austria may not have been a party to this but was widely known to agree), and created for the first time a firm regulation of Polish and Jewish immigration and emigration across this frontier that would create a formal structure for German gastarbeiter on Junker farms for the farming and harvest season. It thereafter also minorly adjusted bilateral tariffs on raw and finished goods going in both directions to try to alleviate the economic damage wrought by trade wars such as in 1903, 1909 or 1911, and opened Russia to more German goods than previously, increasing trade between the two states even as protectionists on both sides of the border angrily grumbled.

    On its face, then, the agreement forged at Pinsk in February 1918 and signed on March 3rd by Fürstenburg in the Kaiser's presence was wholly unremarkable, the kind of standard maintenance diplomacy conducted constantly in prewar Europe. But as he put his pen down, the Eisenprinz was well aware that he was signing something else, something much more profound, without the knowledge of anyone else but a small circle of men..."

    - Fürstenburg: The Quarter Century Rule of Germany's Iron Prince

    "...public clauses 1-8. However, there were additional, secret clauses numbering 9-27 - these were the meat of the treaty, and dramatically reshaped German strategic planning.

    Germany had since 1868 been generally aware that French revanchism was strong and that Austria was thoroughly frustrated by the Hohenzollerns pipping them to dominance in the German-speaking lands, and the secret Iron Triangle agreement - which had no known expiration date to German diplomats or general staff planners - had made this a formal sandwiching of Germany in between these two powers. German hopes for a formal treaty with Russia had been extinguished with the Bear's humiliation by Turkey in the Bulgarian mountains in 1877, and they had instead settled for a sequence of renewed "reinsurance treaties" over the following forty years that diplomats reissued bilaterally every two to three years, almost like clockwork. In the meantime, Germany had forged strong enough relations with Vienna to make the Habsburgs - whom Heinrich in particular held in high esteem for historical reasons - reluctant to fully support French saber-rattling, and for brief windows in the 1890s after the Bangkok Crisis and the early 1900s, France and Germany had indeed enjoyed a "Grand Detente" in which they cooperated, formed closer cultural and economic bonds, and greatly lowered the temperature on European tensions.

    Part of Germany's calculus, of course, was that they did not entirely trust Russia, even though relations had always been warm and they could (and did) cooperate on the question of suppressing Polish nationalism. The greatest fear of German policymakers, especially those who were not East Elian Junkers who admired Russia's autocracy, was of a general war with France and Austria in which Russia then jumped in to acquired more territory - say, Posen and the Memelland, perhaps - and take advantage of Berlin's weaknesses. This fear had been particularly acute circa 1908, when Germany and Russia found themselves on opposing sides of the Chinese conflict, and though Reinsurance was renewed, it never quite alleviated Berlin's worries.

    The Pinsk Protocol was important to Jagow for this very reason - the need to remove the chance of Russian intervention in a war in Central Europe, which though seeming highly remote in early 1918 was nonetheless a real risk what with Austria's destabilization and tensions rising between Vienna and Rome over the Milan Magyars, as well as French rearmament on land and sea and their increasingly bellicose posture in the Far East. Something was coming, perhaps not soon, but it was best to be prepared. As such, the secret clauses of the treaty did more than just renew the old Reinsurance but rather enhance it - the renewal would be for ten years, through 1928, for starters, giving both Germany and Russia a decade of breathing room on their borders.

    Russia had her own priorities, though, and the Treaty did much to resolve them. Having split most of southern Africa with London since the last Reinsurance Treaty was renewed in early 1915, and with Britain's attentions in India and Ireland now much quieted, Russia quite understandably was concerned about how close, exactly, Berlin now was to her age-old rival in the Great Game over Asia. Germany's concessions in the Pinsk Protocol did much to alleviate her worries; Jagow pointed out that Russia had no interests in Africa directly and that with the exception of China, there were no overlapping Russo-German disputes in East Asia. With this in mind, Germany proceeded with three key planks: it pledged not to intervene in the event of a new war in China unless Qing forces, then cabined to Manchuria, arrived within a hundred kilometers of the Yangtze or Shanghai at its mouth; it put in writing that Germany would support Russia against Japan or France in the event of tensions of Korea and that it regarded Korea as being in the Russian sphere of influence; and it agreed to support Russian "peripheral interests" in the "space between the Black Sea and Tibet," meaning that any Russian actions in, say, Persia or Afghanistan would enjoy German neutrality in any and all cases, regardless of what Germany may have agreed to with Britain. Lastly, Jagow inserted a final clause guaranteeing German support for the independence of Orthodox Ethiopia, which Russia was increasingly concerned lay exposed to Italian ambitions in the Horn of Africa.

    This treaty was a massive boon for Russia, cementing the post-1908 status quo in Asia and allowing both parties to enjoy bilateral relations with Japan with the independence of Korea fully secured; Sazonov correctly predicted that in the event of war, they had just driven France out of the Orient "without firing a bullet." But Germany had a price, too, though one that would at the time appear much less favorable - Russia agreed not to intervene in any conflict "within Europe" against Germany, regardless of how many powers were involved, and signaled approval of "minor" border adjustments in Germany's favor following a successful war but which maintained that "no major revisions of the balance of power can be pursued by either party without the consensus of the other Great Powers." This was partially aimed at Asia as well, to stop Russia or Britain from carving up China, but was intended by Russia to stop Germany from radically shifting the Austrian map and by Germany to prevent Russia from marching in and seizing Galicia and thus seizing the initiative in the whole of the Balkans. Reading between the lines, it essentially told Germany that while Russia clearly considered a postwar Austria to be a sphere of interest of Germany, more imperialist ambitions would have to be aimed westwards - at France and Belgium.

    Sazonov returned to his peers in St. Petersburg a champion of diplomacy - Russia had gained massively in Asia, critically at a time when France’s star seemed to be fading and tensions with Persia were rising, and had given up very little in Europe for it, acquiescing to seeing Austria hobbled without completely destabilizing the Balkans. Any ambitions in Europe could now wait with Russia satisfied that her interests were at least somewhat protected in the long term. Pinsk remained one of Sazonov’s great prides to his deathbed.

    Reactions in Germany were more mixed amongst the small circle with whom the secret terms were shared. Conservatives reared on romantic stories of the Teutonic Knights and who dreamed of a grand Eastern colonial empire all the way to the Volga - and who believed, as Russia began to industrialize, that an apocalyptic showdown between the German and Slavic civilizations would be inevitable - were aghast, especially as it seemed to foreclose upon maximalist territorial possibilities in Austria. Heinrich was more favorable and in this sense protected his Foreign Secretary. He saw the territorial agreements as simply formalizing what he already understood to be true - the other Great Powers would vehemently oppose aggressive German expansionism and invite diplomatic and even military intervention to oppose it - and instead noted that German hands were essentially free in Africa and Southeast Asia, forever, thanks to this deal. It was also critical to note that Jagow had done something few could have imagined - with his two treaties, he had essentially foreclosed on the likelihood of British or Russian entry into a future war and done both in a way favorable to Germany rather than France. The two powers that served the greatest threat to Germany were not just sidelined - they were sidelined thanks to German initiative and collaboration.

    Ironically, the Pinsk Protocol when combined with Malcolm-Jagow made war more likely than less so, by removing guardrails from German diplomatic options. Germany had bought itself ten years of peace with Russia and an indefinite similar understanding with Britain - roadblocks to a more belligerent stance in the face of French provocation was now gone, and many of the circle of hawks around the Emperor and Chancellor wanted to take full advantage, and indeed they did within months of Pinsk’s signing. The clock to the eruption of war was now definitively ticking…”

    - The Central European War

    [1] This date in 1918 and the use of Pinsk which is close to a certain other town in Belarus are done with maximum irony in mind
     
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