Ottoman Victory in 1877-78 War - Need Help

[rad_vsovereign]

Mehmed Ali Pasha (not the one in Egypt) was German - he converted to Islam and entered the military.

There were three very good generals in the war: Mehmed Ali, Osman Pasha, and Ahmed Muhtar Pasha (in the East) - they all did very well, but the strategic situation was relatively hopeless after the inaction of the first months, and Suleyman Pasha's waste of his army making frontal assaults in the Shipka Pass.

Even at this stage, a central leader could have saved the day by relieving Suleyman and placing his troops under the C-in-C in Bulgaria. The Russians were spread rather thin, and Mehmed Ali's offensive to relieve Plevna did surprisingly well before losing steam due to lack of numbers. Suleyman's army was around 40,000 men - these added to Mehmed Ali's could have driven the Russians back over the Danube.

The Ottomans were keen to have the Russians attack first and didn't want to invade enemy territory due to the impact this would have on opinion in the West, although they did land in Abkhazia in a fairly skillful amphibious attack - although this wouldn't have been possible in a more heavily defended area.

I think what the Ottomans should have done is placed an army in the Dobruja, and then occupied Galatz - this would have severed the only rail line leading south and would have threatened the communications of the entire Russian army. The Russians would either have had to take the city, which would have been nearly impossible, or leave enough troops to mask it - either way, their logistics would have been a nightmare. Dragging heavy artillery south would have been very difficult, provisioning the army very difficult, and it probably would have been necessary to build another rail line further West.

If they could prevent the Russians from crossing until they could get the whole army in better positions, the Russians would have been unable to succeed.

The main opportunity the Ottomans had, besides superior troops and armaments, was that the Russians had seriously underestimated them and not mobilized enough troops to win. They ended up having to mobilize double their initial force size, and it was still close.

Ah...so the disaster can all be blamed on Suleyman Pasha?
But I thought Shipka Pass is important to reach northern Bulgaria? Or do you suggest that Suleyman Pasah should have use other pass?

Suppose he did use another pass (as the RUssians did) then what army is between Shipka Pass & Adrianople?

I think in the aftermath, supposing the Ottomans are victorius, should be the cancellation of Russian trading privileges in the empire. Russia & her allies: Romania, Serbia, Greece. Probably even confiscation of properties? Say, this can be considered indemnity.

What do you mean taking Galatz would be nearly impossible for the Russians?

 

[Ridwan Asher]

I'm actually quite interested on how the Ottoman victory here would've influenced the globe and particularly, the European politics. How would everything actually go from this point on ? I'm also interested about the effects of this in far away places, such as in South Africa, because Ottomans ITTL will be able to keep Egypt, no ?

 

[Grimm Reaper]

One key question is whether the other major powers develop new respect for the Ottomans or less for the Russians. Given the European greed for colonies and their remarkably casual attitude towards Ottoman territories I have to wonder if France, Italy or the UK would become much slower to try helping themselves.

At some point, however, lack of opportunities here may lead to problems in other regions and Germany's lack of colonial interest in Ottoman territory may prove an advantage(or it might not). Italy is especially likely to be bitter if no opportunities in Libya, the Dodecanese, Albania or elsewhere emerge.

 

[rad_vsovereign]

One key question is whether the other major powers develop new respect for the Ottomans or less for the Russians. Given the European greed for colonies and their remarkably casual attitude towards Ottoman territories I have to wonder if France, Italy or the UK would become much slower to try helping themselves.

At some point, however, lack of opportunities here may lead to problems in other regions and Germany's lack of colonial interest in Ottoman territory may prove an advantage(or it might not). Italy is especially likely to be bitter if no opportunities in Libya, the Dodecanese, Albania or elsewhere emerge.

Yes, I think they will develop both. More respect for Ottomans (military-wise) & less for Russians. Nobody respects someone who is defeated.

That casual attitude is because OE was defeated. Britain took Cyprus because she wanted some territory (Russians got some first) to balance things, which resulted in France taking Tunis. Italy took another 30 years before taking over Libya -- and then just. I mean, how difficult it was to take something from a dying man? Yet, Italy was almost defeated...

I would argue that there will be no territorial losses for OE in TTL because they actually won a war against Russia... It is not in the interest of UK to weaken OE, because of the danger of Russian fleet in the Med. France is still reeling from defeat by Germany. Austria-Hungary would prefer a multinational state on her borders than an ethnic state. Especially ethinc states viewed as Russian puppets (Serbia, Bulgaria, Romania)

Just my 2 rupiah

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

The Shipka Pass was seized by a mobile Russian force immediately after they crossed the Danube - getting it back would have been nice but was not really a strategic priority. There were plenty of better routes to Bulgaria, preferably the Varna-Ruschuk railway. The force at Shipka was not in itself a threat as it was too small to attack into Thrace.

The reason Galatz would be impossible to take is because it was a river port and so the Russians would not be able to surround it and cut it off from supply.

The Russians attacked Osman Pasha at Plevna four times and nearly lost the war in the process - in the end they had to settle in for a seige after surrounding the city with a huge army - and in the case of Galatz, the Ottomans will also have heavy naval gunfire support.

Ah...so the disaster can all be blamed on Suleyman Pasha?
But I thought Shipka Pass is important to reach northern Bulgaria? Or do you suggest that Suleyman Pasah should have use other pass?

Suppose he did use another pass (as the RUssians did) then what army is between Shipka Pass & Adrianople?

I think in the aftermath, supposing the Ottomans are victorius, should be the cancellation of Russian trading privileges in the empire. Russia & her allies: Romania, Serbia, Greece. Probably even confiscation of properties? Say, this can be considered indemnity.

What do you mean taking Galatz would be nearly impossible for the Russians?

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

I'm actually quite interested on how the Ottoman victory here would've influenced the globe and particularly, the European politics. How would everything actually go from this point on ? I'm also interested about the effects of this in far away places, such as in South Africa, because Ottomans ITTL will be able to keep Egypt, no ?

I think a stronger Ottoman Empire will have a pretty serious impact on India and Indonesia - I think you would almost certainly see earlier independence of the former, and probably also of the latter.

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

I tend to think that regard for the Russians would fall more than it would rise for the Ottomans. "They couldn't even beat the Turks!"

On the same token, there will be some underlying fear of Ottoman military capabilities that will influence policy, and possibly give the Ottomans some breathing room.

There will also probably be concern about resurgent pan-Islamism - a huge Muslim victory could serve as inspiration for the hundreds of millions of Muslim subjects of the other Powers (except Germany!)

On the other hand, this situation would probably result in less reliance on Islamism on the part of the Ottomans in favor of Ottomanism, which will be given a boost.

I also think this would be an excellent result for the Hapsburgs, as it deals the "national principle" a blow and creates another barrier to South Slav ambitions.

Yes, I think they will develop both. More respect for Ottomans (military-wise) & less for Russians. Nobody respects someone who is defeated.

That casual attitude is because OE was defeated. Britain took Cyprus because she wanted some territory (Russians got some first) to balance things, which resulted in France taking Tunis. Italy took another 30 years before taking over Libya -- and then just. I mean, how difficult it was to take something from a dying man? Yet, Italy was almost defeated...

I would argue that there will be no territorial losses for OE in TTL because they actually won a war against Russia... It is not in the interest of UK to weaken OE, because of the danger of Russian fleet in the Med. France is still reeling from defeat by Germany. Austria-Hungary would prefer a multinational state on her borders than an ethnic state. Especially ethinc states viewed as Russian puppets (Serbia, Bulgaria, Romania)

Just my 2 rupiah

 

[rad_vsovereign]

Supposing that after Ottoman armies finish pushing the Russians back across the Danube, some of their victorius armies then transferred to the east (via troop ships) There, they reclaim lands taken by the Russians & defeat them.

I would say that with Russian army in europe cease to exist, they Caucasus army can't be helped (with manpower) than OE armies would take all of Russian lands south of Caucasus, from the Black Sea to the Caspian.

The resulting peace treaty gives these land to OE.

How possible is that scenario?

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

Not to likely. One of the reasons the Russians didn't have enough troops for their campaign is that they detailed so many to garrison areas of Russia they thought were vulnerable to just such a possibility. So the Black Sea coast and Caucasus were pretty heavily garrisoned, and in the era before railways were really in place (and even after), the Caucasus is not really amenable to anything that requires large-scale logistical support.

In WWI the Ottomans pushed into the Caucasus and occupied the entire region, but in that case the Russian army had simply evaporated after the Revolution.

If the Ottomans had pushed the Russians out of the Balkans, a peace settlement would likely have been reached restoring things to the status quo ante, and there would have been heavy pressure from the Powers to do so.

I don't think the Ottomans were in any condition to be launching offensives.

Supposing that after Ottoman armies finish pushing the Russians back across the Danube, some of their victorius armies then transferred to the east (via troop ships) There, they reclaim lands taken by the Russians & defeat them.

I would say that with Russian army in europe cease to exist, they Caucasus army can't be helped (with manpower) than OE armies would take all of Russian lands south of Caucasus, from the Black Sea to the Caspian.

The resulting peace treaty gives these land to OE.

How possible is that scenario?

 

[Hierophant]

In the event of victory how possible is it for the Ottomans to want to create a solid muslim province in europe, say centered on OTL Bulgaria. Bringing in Muslims from Bosnia and the rest of the Balkans and focusing them closer to Istanbul, to create a loyal buffer state.

 

[Grey Wolf]

Third time lucky ? Last time I tried to psot here, for the 2nd time the board went down as I did it

I was thinking that a Polish uprising is a bit of a cliche, tho that doesnt mean it won't happen, it means that they might not, or they might wait

I was in fact wondering whether a TATAR uprising was more likely - would there be a backlash against those who remained in the Crimea if the Ottomans haver handed the Russians a second bloody nose ?

Finland also could be curious, espcially if Aleksandr II gets ambitious with pseudo-democratic ideas

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[Ridwan Asher]

I think a stronger Ottoman Empire will have a pretty serious impact on India and Indonesia - I think you would almost certainly see earlier independence of the former, and probably also of the latter.

Except that ITTL most likely there will may not be Indonesia, or something to be called as one or a nation that to cover OTL areas of Indonesia at least, although it won't be impossible at all. The emergence of something later to be called 'Indonesianism' only happened in 1920 when somehow some native activists began to propose the idea of a large nation covering the whole archipelago, and the aspiration was only crystallized 8 years later, in the form of Youth Oath Declaration. Most people are prone to regard this as "nationalism revival day" though it's more like "nationalism birthday" to me.

As for figuring out how Nusantara will gonna turn out ITTL, I think we got to check on how Ottoman victory would effect Europe in general, the Brits in particular, and how would the British colonial policy in general be effected, the policies regarding far east in particular, and than how these would later impact the Dutch.

 

[Ridwan Asher]

As for figuring out how Nusantara will gonna turn out ITTL, I think we got to check on how Ottoman victory would effect Europe in general, the Brits in particular, and how would the British colonial policy in general be effected, the policies regarding far east in particular, and than how these would later impact the Dutch.

So, anyone would like to share ?

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

In the event of victory how possible is it for the Ottomans to want to create a solid muslim province in europe, say centered on OTL Bulgaria. Bringing in Muslims from Bosnia and the rest of the Balkans and focusing them closer to Istanbul, to create a loyal buffer state.

Isn't it better to have them as they are on the borders? I think one of the reasons the Ottomans lasted that long was that Muslims were a majority along the Danube and Sava/Drava.

Moving everyone would be catastrophic in any case. You'd destroy the economy, it would cost a fortune to move everyone, and you'd have half of them die of starvation and disease.

If anything, I'd settle Muslims from other regions in the Balkans. This stopped after Berlin, but up to that point lots of Muslim refugees from the Russian Empire were being settled in the Balkans.

Christians were also more likely to emmigrate to America, and if the Ottomans are stronger, they can eventually end the practice of the Powers granting citizenship to Christians, and begin conscripting them, which will probably increase emmigration, also changing the religious balance.

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

That's an interesting question. I tend to think that this probably wouldn't happen as the Tatars were pretty quiescent in this period and the Ottomans would likely be very keen to avoid any troubles and would encourage them to remain so.

It seems to me that if there's a backlash or reaction, Central Asia is likely to have to bear it. That seems to make more sense in terms of where there are problems and how best to counter the British, who are likely to be assessed some blame for the debacle.

Third time lucky ? Last time I tried to psot here, for the 2nd time the board went down as I did it

I was thinking that a Polish uprising is a bit of a cliche, tho that doesnt mean it won't happen, it means that they might not, or they might wait

I was in fact wondering whether a TATAR uprising was more likely - would there be a backlash against those who remained in the Crimea if the Ottomans haver handed the Russians a second bloody nose ?

Finland also could be curious, espcially if Aleksandr II gets ambitious with pseudo-democratic ideas

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[Ridwan Asher]

It seems to me that if there's a backlash or reaction, Central Asia is likely to have to bear it. That seems to make more sense in terms of where there are problems and how best to counter the British, who are likely to be assessed some blame for the debacle.

So you mean that ITTL Russian expansion southward would be further south ? Because didn't you say it yourself about impact in India. Or what kind of impact that would be, with an Ottoman victory, towards British in India ?

So, anyone would like to share ?

Still waving here...

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

So you mean that ITTL Russian expansion southward would be further south ? Because didn't you say it yourself about impact in India. Or what kind of impact that would be, with an Ottoman victory, towards British in India ?



Still waving here...

I'm thinking about it...

 

[Ridwan Asher]

I'm thinking about it...

Well... about my question regarding East Indies I was actually luring at the Dutch, but well, still none of them has come over here to answer until now.....

As to you it was actually about the Russian southward expansion question and its correlation with British in India but hey, for me more information the better

 

[bm79]

I find the whole situation this would create with Egypt to be really fascinating. In this scenario, Britain doesn't have forces on Cyprus, and won't intervene in 1882. How does the British Empire do in a world where the Suez Canal reamins a project run by a French company on Ottoman territory (at least nominally)? Does this draw Britain closer to these two powers earlier, so as to ensure free passage through the Canal, or does it lead Britain to antagonism and an attempt to seize control over the Canal by main force?

In the Balkans, even with an Ottoman victory, Bosnia will remain an open sore and nearly completely indefensible. Might the Ottomans rather it be ruled by Serbia than the Austrians? An unstable Slav buffer state b/w A-H and the OE: for better or worse, it'd make for some interesting times Such a "Greater" Serbia would have a large Muslim minority, or perhaps even a plurality. Does this lead to a pluralistic state, or do the remaining parts of European Turkey gain 1-2 million Muslim refugees?

The Scramble for Africa and the "Alliance Fest" among the European powers will end up quite different ITTL. With the Ottomans so strong in NE Africa, I don't see Belgium getting the Congo Basin. It all depends on how the alliances will fall now that the Ottomans have proven that they can stand on their own.

I can see from all this a scenario where you'd end up with a Great War where the Entente of France, Austria-Hungary, and the Ottoman Empire is pitted against the Emperor's Pact of Germany and Russia. Britain would end up siding with the Entente to assure its lines of communication through the Canal. Italy hangs out there as to where it would fall, but if they're smart, they'll stay out of it.

 

[DuQuense]

Do the Russians try to increase their influence in Persia, now that the assault on the Ottomans has been firmly rebuffed? Persia also had issues with the Ottomans, was also trying to modernize, and might be more leery of British influence if the British are seen as more openly friendly to the Sublime Porte.

This would be in keeping with both the Great Game, and Russia's tendency to go play in Asia, when hurt in Europe. [& vice versa]

Tunis would be difficult to save, but not impossible. In a TL where nobody gets any Ottoman territory (especially Cyprus to Britain), there is no offer of it to France at Berlin, no drive for it as a counterbalance to Britain's acquisition, and without the agreement of the Powers, it would be diplomatically difficult to engineer grabbing it in the 1880s. So long as nobody else (particularly Italy) tries to get it, the French will probably for a time be content with economic paramountcy. There would likely have been a dustup in Tunisia in late 1881 or 1882 over various issues that could have led to an Ottoman intervention, perhaps tolerated if the situation in Egypt had developed to France's advantage and satisfaction.

IIRC one of the reasons France pushed for Tunisia at the Berlin Conference, was that Italy was the largest investor in Tunisia. [playing keep away]
Italy was planning a Railroad from Tunis to Tripoli, which would have put Tunisia firmly in Italian [economic] Control.

Given this Victory, Turkey would have better luck getting European backing for the Damacus-Medina-Mecca railroad.
[almost finished OTL when WW1 started]{Earlier start ITTL} (And other Projects)
A rail link from India to Damascus to Mecca would cement the growing -Indian Muslim- backing for the Ottoman Caliphate.