No Nazism (and maybe no WWII) - What is the ultimate fate of the Second Polish Republic?

[Flavius Iulius Maiorianus]

I must ask this: If Germany as a whole was so intent on destroying the Polish state and people, why was the Prussian Settlement Commission an utter failure? Why didn't the Germans just expel all the Poles from Poznan, or just kill them? Why did the Chancellor of Germany during WWI and most of the civilian government vehemently oppose the Border Strip plan? The simple fact is that most Germans may have thought that 1914 borders would be nice, but they didn't really care that much. The Great Depression was much more relevant to Hitler's rise than anti-Polish sentiment. Weimar Germany may want the Corridor, but I don't see them pushing it far enough to start a war, which is what would be required for them to get it. They'll certainly get Danzig itself, and probably without bloodshed, but not the Corridor as a whole.

I also see no reason for the USSR to collapse, with it being in an infinitely better position without the utter catastrophe that was World War II, especially with different post Stalin leadership.

 

[Sasza]

I must ask this: If Germany as a whole was so intent on destroying the Polish state and people, why was the Prussian Settlement Commission an utter failure? Why didn't the Germans just expel all the Poles from Poznan, or just kill them? Why did the Chancellor of Germany during WWI and most of the civilian government vehemently oppose the Border Strip plan? The simple fact is that most Germans may have thought that 1914 borders would be nice, but they didn't really care that much. The Great Depression was much more relevant to Hitler's rise than anti-Polish sentiment. Weimar Germany may want the Corridor, but I don't see them pushing it far enough to start a war, which is what would be required for them to get it. They'll certainly get Danzig itself, and probably without bloodshed, but not the Corridor as a whole.

I also see no reason for the USSR to collapse, with it being in an infinitely better position without the utter catastrophe that was World War II, especially with different post Stalin leadership.

First of all, you have to find willing Germans to settle, and they preferred to live in richer provinces.

However, in the case of an attempt at physical extermination, it would arouse natural opposition from European countries. Additionally, in Germany itself there was a conflict between Catholics and Protestants, so an attempt to murder almost 2 million Catholics would arouse natural fear in southern Germany.

 

[The Link]

Have you ever written up a scenario on this very interesting premise? Was Masaryk in too much bad blood with the Poles from the Ciesyn Silesia issues since 1919, and possibly also by 1933 considered too pro-Soviet/soft on Soviets? A different Czechoslovakian leadership could have offered a real chance for a fresh start with Poland, and a "good enough" compromise to allow the two countries to consider and work toward common security interests (toward Germany above all)? Masaryk had political vulnerabilities? Wasn't he practically father of the country, who "willed it into existence"?

During the polish-soviet war 1919-1921 Masaryk used to diplomatically do whatever he could to talk the west out of aiding the Poles, and he would be indeed the main obstacle for the good relations between Czechoslovakia and Poland. But there's still an issue of the fact that even after he died, Czechoslovakia continued to have an alliance with the Soviet Union, and the Red Army could not have aided Czechoslovakia without firstly marching... through Poland either through Romania. And this was a horrible vision for Poland, for the same reasons why the Poles would be indeed scared of the concept of german armies being allowed to enter Poland. But in the soviet case it's something more. Whereas in OTL the III Reich used to show prior to polish refusal some kind of respect for Piłsudski and for Poland (whether it was just a game, is a different topic), the Soviet Union had been showing no respect whatsoever, all combined with the genocide upon the Poles living within the interwar USSR. The Soviets were mad and unpredictable.

I think that Czechoslovakia could be supportive for Poland, if Czechoslovakia experienced by itself some nastiness from communism. In OTL Czechoslovakia and Romania had right after ww1 a war against temporarily-turned-communist Hungary, and simultaneously there were two shortly existing communist states in Germany: Bavarian Soviet Republic and the Saxon Soviet Republic, both of which had a border with Czechoslovakia. If these german communists lasted a bit longer and decided to launch some attack on Prague (alongside the atrocities upon the Czechs) in the name of support for the hungarian communists, this could be the thing that would make Czechoslovakia anti-communist. Of course only if Czechoslovakia had attributed it to communism, rather than to Germany itself.

However, if there really is eternal peace in Europe since 1922, I have a scenario for Poland.

Investments in COP continue until the 1940s, and the border between Poland A and Poland B is slowly disappearing. In the 1950s, sulfur, coal and iron extraction began in Wołoń and Lublin. Investments in the region are slowly weakening the Ukrainian element.

In the 1960s, Poland caught up with the Czech Republic in terms of development and slowly began to overtake, with 45 million people born.

In the 1970s, the nuclear program was developing and Poland joined the group of countries with nuclear weapons, after the UK, France, the USSR, the USA, South Africa, Italy and Spain. In the 1980s, as a result of the collapse of the USSR, there was a rebirth of Ukrainian nationalism. A number of smaller towns are beginning to resemble Northern Ireland.

I like this one! It sounds very plausible, even if anticlimactic and “boring” compared to OTL. But in China it is a curse to live in interesting times, so that makes sense so Ukrainians creating IRA levels of “excitement” for modern Poland sounds about right

The interesting thing is... in OTL Poland already did have the troubles with the ukrainian terrorists who acted pretty much like IRA. In this case however, the Ukrainians were equipped and financed not by independent Ukraine (which did not exist), but by Germany - firstly by the Weimar Republic, and then also briefly by Hitler in the months preluding the invasion of Poland. If however, Germany decides to give up on both war and actions against Poland, then the capabilities of ukrainian nationalists will be diminished - at least as long as there is no alternative source of funds in the form of independent Ukraine.

 

[Flavius Iulius Maiorianus]

First of all, you have to find willing Germans to settle, and they preferred to live in richer provinces.

However, in the case of an attempt at physical extermination, it would arouse natural opposition from European countries. Additionally, in Germany itself there was a conflict between Catholics and Protestants, so an attempt to murder almost 2 million Catholics would arouse natural fear in southern Germany.

So you admit that Germany had no interest in destroying the Poles as a whole and settling their land?

 

[Sasza]

The possibility of an alliance with Czechoslovakia appeared in 1933 when Masaryk fell seriously ill and Benes took over the reins of the state.

 

[Sasza]

So you admit that Germany had no interest in destroying the Poles as a whole and settling their land?

They wanted to do it in their own territories in 1914 and planned to do it. They had resistance from the international community, their own liberals and Catholics. Do you think that if London and Paris said you could kill them because they weren't people, they wouldn't do it?

 

[Flavius Iulius Maiorianus]

They wanted to do it in their own territories in 1914 and planned to do it. They had resistance from the international community, their own liberals and Catholics. Do you think that if London and Paris said you could kill them because they weren't people, they wouldn't do it?

No, I don't think they would do it. Do you really think most Germans would support that? And also, international pressure wasn't nearly as strong as you say, or the Russian Empire or United States would've been under extreme pressure and scrutiny. And Britain and France were doing worse in their colonies. The fact is that the Germans didn't genocide the Poles because they didn't want to do such a thing. Why didn't they do it during World War I, when they could justify it to their own population with a siege mentality? Why was there widespread opposition to the Border Strip plan, which was pretty much the third OHL's pet project?

 

[Sasza]

Someone wants to get rid of a given ethnic group from their country in a way other than their natural assimilation, and you don't call it genocide?

 

[raharris1973]

the Soviet Union had been showing no respect whatsoever, all combined with the genocide upon the Poles living within the interwar USSR. The Soviets were mad and unpredictable.

Didn't the Soviet Union and Poland sign a Non-Aggression Pact in 1932?

if Czechoslovakia experienced by itself some nastiness from communism.

Didn't the Czech Legion have some of that, and give back some nastiness in return?

 

[RedSword12]

Someone wants to get rid of a given ethnic group from their country in a way other than their natural assimilation, and you don't call it genocide?

Was then the interwar Polish Sanacja regime genocidal for wanting to get rid of Polish Jews by sending them to Palestine to establish a Jewish nation-state? Not saying that it isn't, but there is a grey zone where the abstract desire for an ethnostate combined with a lack of meaningful translation of said desire into real policy, where we can debate where states lie on the spectrum.

 

[The Link]

Didn't the Soviet Union and Poland sign a Non-Aggression Pact in 1932?

Yes, but it didn't prevent the Soviets from performing the infamous Polish Operation of NKVD 1937-1938.

Didn't the Czech Legion have some of that, and give back some nastiness in return?

Well, the Czechoslovak Legion simply wanted to get itself out of Russia and ocassionally hijacked the russian gold. And while they used to be assaulted by the Soviets, in the end the Czechoslovaks basically sold them Kolchak. Plus, there's a difference between having some clashes faraway, and experiencing something on your own soil.

 

[The Link]

Was then the interwar Polish Sanacja regime genocidal for wanting to get rid of Polish Jews by sending them to Palestine to establish a Jewish nation-state? Not saying that it isn't, but there is a grey zone where the abstract desire for an ethnostate combined with a lack of meaningful translation of said desire into real policy, where we can debate where states lie on the spectrum.

Technically it was planned in a cooperation with the zionist activists, and Poland had been training the zionist volunteers into the military fighters. And it wasn't compulsory to leave Poland.

 

[RedSword12]

Technically it was planned in a cooperation with the zionist activists, and Poland had been training the zionist volunteers into the military fighters. And it wasn't compulsory to leave Poland.

Hardly so different then compared to Weimar Germany, which had made no practical, meaningful moves to destroy the Polish people, beyond the assimilatory policies which were being adopted all across central and eastern Europe (not that they were morally defensible, but it is clear they were the norm).

 

[The Link]

Hardly so different then compared to Weimar Germany, which had made no practical, meaningful moves to destroy the Polish people, beyond the assimilatory policies which were being adopted all across central and eastern Europe (not that they were morally defensible, but it is clear they were the norm).

@Sasza (though I don't share his hostility) wrote about the German Empire, not about the Weimar Republic. And as much as pre-1933 Germany wasn't murderous, the Weimar Republic wasn't by any means friendly to Poland. It actively supported the Soviets during the polish-soviet war: by blocking the passage of weapons the west tried to deliver to Poland through Germany, by selling the equipment for Lenin, by training for Lenin the reinforcements from the tsarist POWs still then present in East Prussia etc. And after the end of the polish-soviet war there are several pacts of cooperation with the Soviet Union, the customs war declared upon Poland, and mentioned by me financing the ukrainian terrorists.

 

[Sasza]

@Flavius Iulius Maiorianus and I are writing about the Kingdom of Prussia and the German Empire, i.e. the period until 1918. Later, German policy, despite still being reluctant towards Poles, had to change, because the Union of Poles in Germany was created, which intervened and even filed complaints to the League of Nations plus Germany about this period they became weaker. There was a Polish state that could also help.

 

[Sasza]

As I write, I see two paths. First, in the case of maintaining the Republic, Polish-German relations are improving and we have retained the Qou status.

However, if Germany turns into a conservative regime, we have a policy of hostility, but they have problems with communists and other movements, but they will not be able to go to war because they must first dismantle the system by annexing Austria and neutralizing Czechoslovakia.

The population of the German Empire is 64 million, of which 4 million are Poles.

Map of minorities in Germany after the Great War.

 

[Flavius Iulius Maiorianus]

I don't think anyone would say interwar Germany and Poland had good relations; they were often quite hostile to each other. The Kingdom of Prussia did, after all, wipe the Commonwealth off the face of the Earth, instigating the partitions, and the assimilation policies and occupation of Congress Poland were hardly gentle. Life in the German occupied territories during World War I was pretty terrible, whether it be France, Belgium, Poland, or especially Ober Ost. What I and most other people are arguing is that there's a world of difference between an early 20th century imperial power, which Germany was, and the Nazis. The German Empire/Weimar Republic was a relatively neutral state that did plenty of good and plenty of bad as well. Nazi Germany was an evil state that did nothing good and went out of its way to be as awful as humanly possible.

As I write, I see two paths. First, in the case of maintaining the Republic, Polish-German relations are improving and we have retained the Qou status.

However, if Germany turns into a conservative regime, we have a policy of hostility, but they have problems with communists and other movements, but they will not be able to go to war because they must first dismantle the system by annexing Austria and neutralizing Czechoslovakia.

The population of the German Empire is 64 million, of which 4 million are Poles.

View attachment 908051

Map of minorities in Germany after the Great War.

I agree with this. Weimar will probably have frosty relations with Poland in the 30s, but they eventually become cordial. If another far right regime takes power they're much more likely to be hostile and revisionist. I think option one is better for all parties involved.

 

[Sasza]

Hitler combined the two extremes of nationalism and the workers' movement. Any other regime in Germany will come from conservative Prussians. However, they are very reluctant to support workers' movements. Which means that there will be no strange MEFO-type bank actions for military purposes.

Let's remember Hitler wanted war, that was his goal.

 

[athgtq16129]

Now there will definitely be a war in the Pacific, which the USSR can use, to expand your outflow zone.

Hello to everyone commenting on this thread, I have created a very detailed thread with maps included about an alt-Pacific War set in this same timeline! be sure to join in and give your thoughts because I did not expected that this thread would gain so much traction and discussion!

No Nazism and no WWII - What does the Pacific War looks like?

Like how I already detailed in this thread, I am brainstorming a TL where Hitler ne ver joins politics, an alt-Beer Hall Putsch results in the early Nazis being destroyed as a party early on in the 1920s, and Germany either becomes a non-Nazi right-wing military dictatorship, or the Weimar...

www.alternatehistory.com