Napoleon wins Waterloo

[Lucius Verus]

snip

I concur, considering the circumstances of the war so far:

France:

Bleeding out an entire generation
Spent out industrially
Financially wrecked

England:

Financially troubled after funding Napoleon's enemies for over a decade.
However, started off significantly stronger economically.
Furthermore its business class is well aware of the dangers of another French block-aide of European markets and are willing to endure another war.
Little to no causalities.
Industry relatively unaffected, the global empire's markets were enough to substitute continental resources.

Sure they are war-weary, but the British have more to lose and alot more to throw into the fray vs the French who are wishy-washy about Nappy.

 

[chris N]

It is the British Public that has had it with the war. They have been seeing their sons conscripted to fight in a war that seems to go on forever. Wellington's reputation has now been destroyed by Napoleon's victory at Waterloo. If the allies suffer 1 or more defeats then the government will fall. The opposition knows that the war is unpopular and the treasury just can't afford to finance continuing to pay Austria and the others.
The biggest mistakes the allies made was to put the Bourbons back in power. Neither Louis XVIII or his brother were willing to acknowledge that time had changed and they must accept the reforms.
I believe that if Napoleon had gotten a peace treaty perhaps giving him the French speaking Belgium it would be enough.
While his mind was still active he knew that he could no longer stand another 5 years of fighting. His body was simply worn down by nearly 20 years of fighting.
Would he live another 20 years or more. Its hard to say. It is clear from research that was done that he was poisoned by the British in OTL in his place of exile in the south Atlantic inOTL.
But as the author of this time line says let us wait and see how the current campaign goes.

 

[Mikestone8]

It is the British Public that has had it with the war. They have been seeing their sons conscripted to fight in a war that seems to go on forever. Wellington's reputation has now been destroyed by Napoleon's victory at Waterloo. If the allies suffer 1 or more defeats then the government will fall. The opposition knows that the war is unpopular and the treasury just can't afford to finance continuing to pay Austria and the others..

Conscripted? I know the Navy used the press gang, but that affected only a small minority of the population.

Yes the war was expensive, but Britain's finances were in far better shape than France's. and after all it would be a false economy to call a halt if all it did was give Napoleon a breathing space, followed by a bigger war in a year or two's time.

And, after all, the Allies had reached Paris once, and knew they could do so again if they stuck to their guns. Now if Nappy had been more patient, and waited it out on Elba another two or three years, giving them plenty of time to fall out - - -.

 

[Saphroneth]

It is the British Public that has had it with the war. They have been seeing their sons conscripted to fight in a war that seems to go on forever.

Excuse me?

Levee en masse, anyone?
(The Brits didn't really use conscription, but the French did it on an industrial scale.)

 

[Circonflexe]

Britain would never want to - they will not tolerate Bonaparte in France forever or France's attempts at hegemony on the Continent.

Why will they never tolerate (a) Bonaparte in France? What did he do to the English specifically?

I can see why they do not want French hegemony or Continental blockade, but they could leave Napoléon on the throne provided there is an actual balance of power on the Continent.

 

[Alstein]

Unless they are completely convinced Nappy will never accept a balance of power, and would try to usurp it again.

Nappy's best chance for peace is accepting the offer after Leipzig. Not accepting that was insanity.

 

[lucaswillen05]

It is the British Public that has had it with the war. They have been seeing their sons conscripted to fight in a war that seems to go on forever. Wellington's reputation has now been destroyed by Napoleon's victory at Waterloo. If the allies suffer 1 or more defeats then the government will fall. The opposition knows that the war is unpopular and the treasury just can't afford to finance continuing to pay Austria and the others.
The biggest mistakes the allies made was to put the Bourbons back in power. Neither Louis XVIII or his brother were willing to acknowledge that time had changed and they must accept the reforms.
I believe that if Napoleon had gotten a peace treaty perhaps giving him the French speaking Belgium it would be enough.
While his mind was still active he knew that he could no longer stand another 5 years of fighting. His body was simply worn down by nearly 20 years of fighting.
Would he live another 20 years or more. Its hard to say. It is clear from research that was done that he was poisoned by the British in OTL in his place of exile in the south Atlantic inOTL.
But as the author of this time line says let us wait and see how the current campaign goes.

Wellington's reputation will certainly be badly dented by his defeat at Waterloo but he got most of the British contingent out at least. So maybe it is a bit much to say his reputation was destroyed. He was after all up against the greatest general of the age.

 

[lucaswillen05]

Why will they never tolerate (a) Bonaparte in France? What did he do to the English specifically?

I can see why they do not want French hegemony or Continental blockade, but they could leave Napoléon on the throne provided there is an actual balance of power on the Continent.

Britain's concern was the European Balance of Power. Might a British government of a certain Whig persausion be agreeable to recognising Napoleon as ruler of Belgum accepting French annexation of Belgium with an independant Holland if the French agree to staying out of Italy and Germany?

 

[chris N]

Wellington had gotten a reputation as an unbeatable General based entirely upon what hat happen in Spain. It was that which was destroyed with his defeat at Waterloo. While it is true that he got the British contingent out the rest of his army is gone. The Belgians are now flocking to Napoleon and the Dutch and minor German states are shattered.
I think that if a Whig government agreed to a peace with France in return for Belgium and a promise to stay out of Germany and Italy would be acceptable to Napoleon. Napoleon knew that both he and France were well worn and could not endure more years of constant campaigning.

 

[Mikestone8]

I think that if a Whig government agreed to a peace with France in return for Belgium and a promise to stay out of Germany and Italy would be acceptable to Napoleon. Napoleon knew that both he and France were well worn and could not endure more years of constant campaigning.

Would anyone take Napoleon's word seriously?

After all, if he controls Belgium he can overrun the Rhineland whenever he pleases.

 

[chris N]

One can say the same of the allied powers. They made a lot of promises to Napoleon regarding Elba and they violated most of them.
The question is then if the British Government fell do to another major defeat and was replaced by a Whig government that signs a peace agreement would that lead to a peace.
Without British Gold who is going to pay for a continuing of a war?
Austria didn't have the money nor did Prussia. Russia not likely. So unless Napoleon invades Germany or Italy I think that would be it.
Perhaps there might be a version of the Cold War for a time.
But I think we are getting ahead of ourselves. Let us see how the next stage of the war goes.

 

[lucaswillen05]

Wellington had gotten a reputation as an unbeatable General based entirely upon what hat happen in Spain. It was that which was destroyed with his defeat at Waterloo. While it is true that he got the British contingent out the rest of his army is gone. The Belgians are now flocking to Napoleon and the Dutch and minor German states are shattered.
I think that if a Whig government agreed to a peace with France in return for Belgium and a promise to stay out of Germany and Italy would be acceptable to Napoleon. Napoleon knew that both he and France were well worn and could not endure more years of constant campaigning.

Wellington will still have the remnantsof the Brunswick and Nassau Contingents. Probably a few Dutch as well. He probably won't lose his command just yet though.

It will be a few days or longer before Napoleon can start refilling his ranks with Belgians however aned he must first fight and decively defeat Blucher. A decisive French victory here would have significant results. However, Bey has botched things before as at Quatre Bras, Bautzen and Dennewitz for example. He could well do so again, robbing Napoleon of a decisive victory.

However. if Blucher's army were to be destroyed this would be militarily and politically significant.

 

[lucaswillen05]

One can say the same of the allied powers. They made a lot of promises to Napoleon regarding Elba and they violated most of them.
The question is then if the British Government fell do to another major defeat and was replaced by a Whig government that signs a peace agreement would that lead to a peace.
Without British Gold who is going to pay for a continuing of a war?
Austria didn't have the money nor did Prussia. Russia not likely. So unless Napoleon invades Germany or Italy I think that would be it.
Perhaps there might be a version of the Cold War for a time.
But I think we are getting ahead of ourselves. Let us see how the next stage of the war goes.

Indeed. Austria abd Prussia would be short on funds and without the British subsidy could not continue the war. And withut them nor can Russia.

In this situation we have to assume Blucher has suffered a major or indeed a decisive defeat. Coming on top of the defeats earlier in the campaign there might very well be a serious poliical crisis in London causing Lord Liverpool's Government to fall. Then it will depend on who can frm a new government and whether the new government is willing to continue the fight. Someone like Castlereagh probably would keep Britain in the war but a Whig government would be more inclined to settle with Naoleon for now at least. Relations between the European powers won't be good but putting together a new coalition against Napoleon in the wake of the Saxon Crisis and a Napoleonic victory would be difficult

 

[Mikestone8]

a Whig government would be more inclined to settle with Naoleon for now at least.

"Settle" on what terms?

Does he get Antwerp back - that "pistol pointed at the heart of England" as he himself put it?

 

[chris N]

Oh come on. France has no navy to speak of and it would be years before it could build up anywhere near a fleet to even think about fighting the Royal Navy. So if its a pistol then it is one that contains no bullets.

 

[lucaswillen05]

"Settle" on what terms?

Does he get Antwerp back - that "pistol pointed at the heart of England" as he himself put it?

Britain might want to maintain a garrisson in Antwerp. Of course, if he British are really sick of war and a Whig government is in power they might give up the port iin return for recognition of an independent Holland.

Remember also Napoleon might well be rather keen on a peace settlement, facing as he is an imminent invasion by 500000 Russian, Austrians and Germans reinforced by the remains of Wellington's army and the remains of the Prussian army. If Napoleon wins his imminent battle with Blucher and wins it decisively it could prove the key moment of the war if it precipitates th political crisis in London.

As I hacve said before Napoleon cannot hope to win the war militarily but he can win it politically with another big battlefield victory or two in Belgium, This would bring the political crisis in London to a head and brig down Lord Liverpool's Government. After that it depends on wh can form a new British government and whether they are willing to continue the war to a finish and overwhelm Napoleon by sheer numbers. If Blucher's army were smashed there is a question of whether the Prussians would continue the war or not.

 

[lucaswillen05]

Oh come on. France has no navy to speak of and it would be years before it could build up anywhere near a fleet to even think about fighting the Royal Navy. So if its a pistol then it is one that contains no bullets.

If Britain continues an extended war the Royal Navy can blocjkade France and there are possibilituies of landings on theFrench Coast. There will also be an Austrian army invading Southern France and perhaps also fighting on the French-Spanish border.

renewed At sea there is nothing Napoleon can do and there is the possibility of Royalis uprisings in the Vendee.

There is also the question of Fouche. Can he be trusted or will he attemt a coup d'etat at some stage. Ansd will the Marshals turn on Napoleon eventually?

 

[chris N]

I think that with the outbreak of trouble in its American colonies there is little chance of Spain carrying out any hostilities along its border with France.
As for the Marshals I think that they will remain loyal to Napoleon. They have little love for the Bourbons and none fro the enemies of France. Any move by the Austrians through Italy will mean very rough going. The French will have the advantage of fighting a defensive battle in very mountainous terrain. This would allow the smaller French forces to hold the Austrians up. As for raids by the Royal Navy that is a possibility.
I seriously doubt an uprising as the Bourbons are far less popular after seeing what they did during their brief return to power.
Thus much depends upon how well the Emperor and his generals do on the Battlefield. Very true about the former head of Napoleons secret police being a possible threat. However, unless Napoleon suffers a serious defeat he will not act as he fears for his own life. Also as long ad Marshal Davout commands Paris any plot can be crushed.

 

[Lucius Verus]

Britain's concern was the European Balance of Power. Might a British government of a certain Whig persausion be agreeable to recognising Napoleon as ruler of Belgum accepting French annexation of Belgium with an independant Holland if the French agree to staying out of Italy and Germany?

What's nappy's word worth by then? Everyone of the Old Guard who had a bone to pick with him personally or on principal. Anyways by then things had changed, Napoleon no longer had the comparative advantage he had 20 years ago when France was fresh and at the forefront of military organization. French conscripts are both numbered and lacking in experience compared to the coalition troops, tactical ability only goes so far and as long as the coalition force fights Napoleon is going to run out of men/support within the year. Besides they already figured out how to fight Napoleon,either overwhelm him or just delay and go after his other armies, he can only be in one place at once.

 

[Mikestone8]

What's nappy's word worth by then? Everyone of the Old Guard who had a bone to pick with him personally or on principal. Anyways by then things had changed, Napoleon no longer had the comparative advantage he had 20 years ago when France was fresh and at the forefront of military organization. French conscripts are both numbered and lacking in experience compared to the coalition troops, tactical ability only goes so far and as long as the coalition force fights Napoleon is going to run out of men/support within the year. Besides they already figured out how to fight Napoleon,either overwhelm him or just delay and go after his other armies, he can only be in one place at once.

And the Allies don't even have to win outright.

France is essentially broke. Actually she has been for some time, but Napoleon had vast conquests to draw upon. In 1815 he hasn't. So all his opponents need to do is hold their own - which they should be able to do as his remaining veterans get killed off - and he will find himself unable to pay for his war effort. Without extensive conquered areas to plunder, he is a busted flush.

And as noted it will only take a few more battles to kill off his remaining veterans and leave him reduced to calling up young boys as in the 1814 campaign. Then it's over bar the shouting.

As I once saw it put (in a biography of Talleyrand iirc), the Battle of Waterloo was not won on the playing fields of Eton so much as in the ledgers of the Banque de France.