Napoleon wins Waterloo

[lucaswillen05]

Napoleon has also fought three major battles and two minor ones (Quatre Bras and Wavre) within four days. How many effectives does he actually have?

His troops are going to be tired and probably hungry (foraging will be difficult).

He needs a breather but he needs to be in the right place to do it all again in a week - and that place is not the coast of Belgium.

Maastricht is better but Liege will be garrisoned and Napoleon needs to beat Blucher again in open battle.

Feint towards Maastricht and hope Marshal Vorwarts lives up to his name.

Waterloo and Plancenoit (and the fighting at Wavre will probably cost the French some 15000 casualties.

The current position of the French army is

1 Napoleon with the army that fought Waterloo and Planchenot now concentrated at Brussels, taking a much needed rest! A couple of days is probably all there is time for given the strategic neccessities

2 Grouchy's command now in he Louvain area.

I am leaning toweards the idea that Napoleon will go after Blucher in the Maastricht area and attempt to defeat him decisively before he can be reinforced by the Prussian Gaurd and two more corps of the Prussian army. That would secure Napoleon;'s northern flank when he fights the Austrians and Russians in early July.

Going after Wellington at Antwerp, at least immediately is, and this certainly appears to be the general consensus a bad idea for Napoleon.

Abandoning the Belgian campaign at this point would be an admssion of strategic failure. I do not see Napoleon doing this after his recent victories and the capture of Brussels.

This leaves the Maastrict option and an attempt to draw/force Blucher's four corps into a decisive battle before the Prussian reinforcements arrive and before Wellington can intervene (joined by the Danish Contingent) If the latter were to happen Napoleon would face a Waterloo situation n the Maastricht area only with Wellington playing the role Blucher played in the OTL Battle of Waterloo and with much the same outcome. Napoleon will have to launch the Masstricht Mounouver very soon both to avoid this situation, fight Blucher before he is reinforced by the rest of the Prussian Army and before the Coalition invasion of Eastern France really gets going.

Blucher, being an agressive general might very well decide to fight unless Gneisenau can talk him into a more cautios strategy.

 

[lucaswillen05]

22 June

While the army du Nord rested around Brussels a series of sometimes heated staff meetings between Napoleon and his senir Marshals discussed the next moves. It was quickly agreed that, after the victorious, though less decisive start to the campaign than was considered desireable, an immediate retreat into France to confront the pending Austrian/Russian invasion considered likely by the end of the month.

Ney, in particular wanted to march immediately on Antwerp to destroy Wellinton's army. Most of he other commanders including Soult and the recently promoted Marshal d'Erlon regarded this course as unwise as Bluchers still intact army was known to be concentrating in the Maastricht area and was expecting reinforcements in the next few days.

Blucher was known to be an agressive commander and thus unlikely to be able to resist the temptation of being drawn into another magor battle even before he was reinforced by the rest of the Prussian army who, potentially could be joined by the Danish contingent. The threat of Wellington making a strategic move to rejoin Blucher and retake Brussels along the way was also discussed.

Napoleon decided that the Manououvre de Maastrict was the bast plan as it gave him the opportunity of shattering no less than four Prussian corps before they could be reinforced. This would minimse the risk of later strategic moves from Belgium while Napoleon fought the decisive battles against Barclay de Tolly and Schwarzenburg.

It was decided to leave Reille's corps as a Corps d'Observation north of Brussels which was the natural choice to establis the French. Centre d'perations. would advance on Maastricht to join up with Grouchy and force or lure Blucher into a deciive battle. Napoleon, stll distrusting Ney both for political reasons and because of his errors in this campaign and on previous occasions decided to keep that Marshal with the main army where he could be useful as a wing commander so long as he was under the Emperor's direct supervision.

On the morning of 22nd June D'Erlon's 2nd Corps, the Imperial Gaurd. Lobau's 6th Corps, the 3rd and 4th Cavalry Corps marched east from Brussels with he intention of joining up with Grouchy and desroying Blucher.

 

[avernite]

A different issue: how is the gunpowder/ammunition situation?

Napoleon has fought about 5 semi-major battles (Quatre Bras, Wavre, Waterloo, Ligny, somethingenoit) with most French divisions seeing action. Military supplies would possibly run out, depending on what specifically happened.

Now, it's obviously possible the armies capture supplies (where would coalition supply depots have been?), and Napoleon's supplies from France will be arriving, but 5 battles in a week seems like it'll begin draining supplies.

 

[lucaswillen05]

A different issue: how is the gunpowder/ammunition situation?

Napoleon has fought about 5 semi-major battles (Quatre Bras, Wavre, Waterloo, Ligny, somethingenoit) with most French divisions seeing action. Military supplies would possibly run out, depending on what specifically happened.

Now, it's obviously possible the armies capture supplies (where would coalition supply depots have been?), and Napoleon's supplies from France will be arriving, but 5 battles in a week seems like it'll begin draining supplies.

French supply trains will have had two or three days to catch up and are now concentrated at Brussels where the new Centre d'Operations is. Essentially Napoleon's Centre d'Operations (see Chandler Campaigns of Napoleon) is what we would today call the Forward Supply Base.

Brussels is clearly the best place o pt this for he next phase of the campaign which involves another attack on Blucher employing he Ventral Position stategy (Reille holds off Wellington if he attacks while the magority of the army fights Blucher) The Manouvre de Maastrict could become a Manouvre sur Derrierre (strategic envelopment) on Blucher to prevent him from withdrawing or liking up with te reinforcements. After defeating Blucher Napoleon could either

1 Destroy the rest of the Prussian army
2 Try to destroy Wellington
3 Move to confront the Austrian and Russian armies.

Napoleon will probably choose some combination of the above.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

Though the reinforcements would have been welcome, the likelihood of Wellington's army being mauled sufficiently badly to need full replacement is extremely low. So much ink has been spilled praising the defensive strengths of the front of the position that little has remained to talk about how well the Foret de Soignes would have facilitated a retreat had Wellington been forced to make one. However, Jomini concluded:

"Would an army with its rear resting upon a forest, and with a good road behind the centre and each wing, have its retreat compromised, as Napoleon imagined, if it should lose the battle? ...the infantry and cavalry and a great part of the artillery could retire just as readily as across a plain. There is, indeed, no better cover for an orderly retreat than a forest- this statement being made upon the supposition that there are two good roads behind the line, that proper measures for retreat have been taken before the enemy has had an opportunity to press too closely, and, finally, that the enemy is not permitted by a flank movement to be before the retreating enemy at the outlet of the forest, as was the case at Hohenlinden. The retreat would be the more secure if, as at Waterloo, the forest formed a concave line behind the centre; for this re-entering would become a place of arms to receive the troops and give them time to pass off in succession on the main roads." (Jomini, The Art of War)

I'd imagine a defeat would also have caused Britain to declare war on France and call out the militia, something which wasn't done historically, thus freeing up regular troops in Britain for service in Belgium.

Wellington was fully aware of the value of Britains 'only army' and knew what he was doing and had walked the land - IIRC the distance between trees in the forest to the 'British' Armies rear would 'not' have impeded the movement of artillery allowing for an orderly withdrawal if necessary.

If such a retreat became necessary then so be it - another battle would have been fought within a couple of days and this battle would have been seen today as another holding action like Quatra Bras before the main fight.

 

[Derek Pullem]

Waterloo and Plancenoit (and the fighting at Wavre will probably cost the French some 15000 casualties.

The current position of the French army is

1 Napoleon with the army that fought Waterloo and Planchenot now concentrated at Brussels, taking a much needed rest! A couple of days is probably all there is time for given the strategic neccessities

2 Grouchy's command now in he Louvain area.

I am leaning toweards the idea that Napoleon will go after Blucher in the Maastricht area and attempt to defeat him decisively before he can be reinforced by the Prussian Gaurd and two more corps of the Prussian army. That would secure Napoleon;'s northern flank when he fights the Austrians and Russians in early July.

Going after Wellington at Antwerp, at least immediately is, and this certainly appears to be the general consensus a bad idea for Napoleon.

Abandoning the Belgian campaign at this point would be an admssion of strategic failure. I do not see Napoleon doing this after his recent victories and the capture of Brussels.

This leaves the Maastrict option and an attempt to draw/force Blucher's four corps into a decisive battle before the Prussian reinforcements arrive and before Wellington can intervene (joined by the Danish Contingent) If the latter were to happen Napoleon would face a Waterloo situation n the Maastricht area only with Wellington playing the role Blucher played in the OTL Battle of Waterloo and with much the same outcome. Napoleon will have to launch the Masstricht Mounouver very soon both to avoid this situation, fight Blucher before he is reinforced by the rest of the Prussian Army and before the Coalition invasion of Eastern France really gets going.

Blucher, being an agressive general might very well decide to fight unless Gneisenau can talk him into a more cautios strategy.

You can add 11000 casualties from Ligny and Quatre Bras to the 15000 from Waterloo Plancenoit and Wavre

Napoleon started with c. 110,000 men and has lost 26000

So 84000 remain less say 12000 in Reille corps (which is VERY exposed against Wellington)

72000 to take on Blucher who probably has more men

If Napoleon carries on like this he will end up like Pyrrhus

 

[lucaswillen05]

You can add 11000 casualties from Ligny and Quatre Bras to the 15000 from Waterloo Plancenoit and Wavre

Napoleon started with c. 110,000 men and has lost 26000

So 84000 remain less say 12000 in Reille corps (which is VERY exposed against Wellington)

72000 to take on Blucher who probably has more men

If Napoleon carries on like this he will end up like Pyrrhus

Blucher has probaby los 15 - 18000 men in the fighting at Waterloo and Planchenoit combined.

However Napoleon has 66000 conscripts in the depots who can be brought up as replacements to replace the losses in Belgium. Davout has stron forces in Paris plus the numbers available from the other French armies.

However, we are likely to see similar bloodletting to the 1813 German campaign although if Napoleon can run a skillful campaign like 1814 this might be reduced to an extent. By this stage of the Napoleonic Wars massed artillery was accounting for large proportions of the battle casualties.

Should this turn into a war of attrition as will probably be the case even with the most skilled French defence Napoleon's armies will be attrited to death even if he calls up more conscrips before their time.

The chances of an ultimate French victory are slim at best but still a possibility for now.

 

[lucaswillen05]

Wellington was fully aware of the value of Britains 'only army' and knew what he was doing and had walked the land - IIRC the distance between trees in the forest to the 'British' Armies rear would 'not' have impeded the movement of artillery allowing for an orderly withdrawal if necessary.

If such a retreat became necessary then so be it - another battle would have been fought within a couple of days and this battle would have been seen today as another holding action like Quatra Bras before the main fight.

True. Wellington was quite badly beaten at Waterloo in TTL and that holding action was fought on 19 June at Planchenoit. Wellington is still in the campaign and is regrouping at Antwerp where he exects the Danish Contingent to join him. This would gp some way to replacing the lost Dutch Belgians. Danish quallity is probably similar or slightly better han the Dutch Belgians. A few Dutch Belgian units might also find their way back, most likely the Dutch. In perhaps a week Wellington might think of some form of offensive operation depending of course on what happens to Blucher in that time.

 

[lucaswillen05]

22 June London

On hearing the news of the battles in Belgium and the fall of Brussels there was a political and financal panic. Lord Liverpool's government teetered on the brink of collapse for a couple of days. However, by the morning of the 22nd it was clear that Liverpool's government would hold onto office and that the subsidies to Britain's European allies would continue. The fact that Wellington had saved a considerable portion of his army from Waterloo and broken contact from the French as, at least for now, had Blucher's Prussians, had done much to calm the panic. However he next couple of weeks were clearly going to be critical to the outcome of the war. If both the British and Prussian armies remained largely intact the war would ultimately be won as Napoleon would have to retire from Belgium to confrontthe invading Austrians and Russians. Blucher and Wellington could then advance into France forcing Napoleon into attritional battles in Central France. Once this process started Napoleon would be worn down by vastly superior Coaltion forces.

NNapoleon of course knew this very well which is wghy his short term plans were aimed at the destruction of Blucher and possibly Wellington as well. For this plan to work the Armee du Nord would have to march fast and fight hard. Even then a complete French victory over Wellington and/or Blucher would only giveFrance a fighting chance of winning the war.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

The long term political consequences are not likely to change much unless Napoleon manages to pull off an unlikely victory. If the campaign ends in French defeats we might see

1 Harsher Allied peace terms. France may well lose territory Saxony might be punished more harshly for the mutiny of its' army earlier in 1815
2 Harsher Bourbon repression and a bloodier White Terror

A bloodier White Terror might have interesting effects if it creates a civil war between the royalists and the moderates/liberals.

 

[lucaswillen05]

A bloodier White Terror might have interesting effects if it creates a civil war between the royalists and the moderates/liberals.

Charles Count of Artois (later Charles X) might have more say n choosing ministers resulting in mor ultra royalist policies. Eventually there will be a more violant reaction to a somewha more severe repression.

If more territory is lost than the 1790 borders but the next fifteen years or so will be similar. The revoluton when it comes probably in or around 1830 will probably be a bloodier affair. Much depends on how harsh a peace will be imposed upon France if and when Napoleo falls.

 

[cerebus]

Wellington was fully aware of the value of Britains 'only army' and knew what he was doing and had walked the land - IIRC the distance between trees in the forest to the 'British' Armies rear would 'not' have impeded the movement of artillery allowing for an orderly withdrawal if necessary.

If such a retreat became necessary then so be it - another battle would have been fought within a couple of days and this battle would have been seen today as another holding action like Quatra Bras before the main fight.

The Wellington quote I recall is in response to an accusation that he could not have withdrawn from the Waterloo position.

"Nonsense, I would have pulled back into the woods and defied Boney to come in after me"

I suspect he was at all time prepared to retreat and only hung on as long as he did because Blucher was at hand. If Napoleon had done even slightly better I think Wellington would have cut his losses and preserved as much of his army for the next battle. That is what he did in Spain after all.

 

[lucaswillen05]

The Wellington quote I recall is in response to an accusation that he could not have withdrawn from the Waterloo position.

"Nonsense, I would have pulled back into the woods and defied Boney to come in after me"

I suspect he was at all time prepared to retreat and only hung on as long as he did because Blucher was at hand. If Napoleon had done even slightly better I think Wellington would have cut his losses and preserved as much of his army for the next battle. That is what he did in Spain after all.

The problem Wellington would have had is he would have had to withdraw under, to say the least, considerable pressure. In this case 'Erlon's Corps had siezed the ridge and repulsed Uxbridge's cavalry counter attack. The corps was also given better cavalry support than OTL

Wellington must therefore start to withdraw towards the Soignes Forest but he has to do this in squares due to the commitment of the French cavalry corps. Problems are exacerbated by he combined arms assaults. He will have t take up a defensive position on the Mont St Jean Ridge which is what he does in this scenario. Wellington's lies of course will be badly battered in this process. Meanwhile Napoleon orders up the Imperial Guard and perhaps is able to move up some of the Grand Battery to the ridge Wellington had occupied. his will bepretty much what happened in this scenario.

Wellington's army will get away but it will take heavy losses in the battle and the immediate tactical pursuit. Mny of the less reliablr unitts (the Dutch Belgians) will simply disintegrate under pressure of this intensity. The more reliable elements such as the British woulsd hold together but would likely suffer heavy losses. Which is what happens in this scenario.

As previously indicated Napoleon has won a magor victory at Waterloo but, although it resulted in the French occupation of Brussels this was delayed by a day thanks to the need to fight Blucher on the 19th. Napoleon defeated Blucher but, thanks to Thielmann's counter attack at Wavre Grouchy was unable to intervene in that battle the French have again been robbed of a decisive victory.

Napoleon does however now have a good central position at Bussels which he is now using to seek a decisive victory over Blucher in the Maastricht area while Reille's corps delays any moves by Wellington from his position at Antwerp. How this will play out remains to be seen.

 

[chris N]

A French victory at Waterloo would have a number of other effects. The overall morale of the French Army would be much stronger. During the real campaign the corps that were charged with the defense of France did quite well considering the forces that were available to them. With News that Napoleon had won they might be more confident in winning.
I suspect that the Austrians would suddenly be more cautious fearful that the Napoleon of old had returned. It is also likely that the Czar would also be pressured to withdraw.
In addition a lot of the Prussian troops would be people who were not Prussians. In fact some might have just the previous year fought on the emperor's side.
I also believe that Spain will stay out of the actual fighting as it has lots of internal problems to face including serious problems in the Americas.

 

[lucaswillen05]

A French victory at Waterloo would have a number of other effects. The overall morale of the French Army would be much stronger. During the real campaign the corps that were charged with the defense of France did quite well considering the forces that were available to them. With News that Napoleon had won they might be more confident in winning.

I suspect that the Austrians would suddenly be more cautious fearful that the Napoleon of old had returned. It is also likely that the Czar would also be pressured to withdraw.

In addition a lot of the Prussian troops would be people who were not Prussians. In fact some might have just the previous year fought on the emperor's side.
I also believe that Spain will stay out of the actual fighting as it has lots of internal problems to face including serious problems in the Americas.

Very likely. IOTL the Allied invasion f Eastern France did not really get going in any way until the end f June. Schwarzenburg was raher cautious anyway. I will likely keep the timeline of the initial Coalition advance into Eastern France pretty much the same up until the battle of La Souffel and that will probably have the same outcome.

Schwarzenburg's reaction will be influenced both by La Souffel and by the outcome of the likely battle between Napoleon and Blucher somewhere in the Maastrict area. Depending on the outcome of that Schwarzenburg's reaction could be very bad indeed.

In other theatres Spain will likely be very cautious at best about invading France. There are also likely to be Coalition moves into South East France via Italy (Austria) and an amphibious landing by the British near Marseilles or Toulon in early July. The Swiss army, though a corps of observation might be used in a more agresive role later.

However the early defeats in Belgium, may well delay Coalon moves. Furtermore political dissension could well be a factor since many of the great powers now allied against France nearly went to war with each other over the Saxony Crisis earlier in 1815.

Though the military odds suggest Napoleon's defeat a few more battlefield victories and a big political fallout among the Allies leading to one or more of the Great Powers withdrawing from the 7th Coalition might very well change everything allowing Napoleon to stay on the throne under a negotated peace.

If Napoleon can pull this one off it would certainly change the course of 19th Century history. The outcome of the forthcoming battle near Maastricht (unless Blucher decides to avoid battle altogether) will be important and possiby critical to he outcome of the war.

 

[mattep74]

I have read a book about the Waterloo campaign. THe cavalry used the last horses that was suitable for cavalry that was avalible in France. Every horse lost to the cavalry by the French means a trooper that will go into the infantry if no enemy horses are captured.

 

[Mikestone8]

I have read a book about the Waterloo campaign. THe cavalry used the last horses that was suitable for cavalry that was avalible in France. Every horse lost to the cavalry by the French means a trooper that will go into the infantry if no enemy horses are captured.

A side-effect of the Moscow campaign.

He lost nearly all his cavalry horses, which were harder to replace than the soldiers, as they required more training.

Also, though prisoners of war were returned at the peace of 1814, captured horses were not - they were war booty.

 

[lucaswillen05]

I have read a book about the Waterloo campaign. THe cavalry used the last horses that was suitable for cavalry that was avalible in France. Every horse lost to the cavalry by the French means a trooper that will go into the infantry if no enemy horses are captured.

Yes, that could be a longer term problem. However, in TTL the succesful attack of d'Erlon's corps and the better use of combined arms butterflied away Ney's waste of the cavalry corps during the afternoon attacks. Of course he mght do sometthing of the sort in a later battle or the French cavalry corps will suffer through the same attrition of the rest of the army. In the short term some horses will be captured from the british and Prussians and more horses might be available in Belgium

More pressure on Napoleon to achieve a quick and decisive victory against Blucher. With Ney and Grouchy his chance might be lost unless hey are more closely supervised by Napoleon in the coming battles near Maastrict.

 

[lucaswillen05]

22 June 1815 10pm

Intense debate raged in Blucher's command tent at Maastricht throughou the evening. Grouchy was known to be advancing from Louvain on Maastricht Now reports were coming in that Napoleon was advancing east from Brussels. The Prussian army at Maastricht was not strong enough to fight both combined/

Gneisenau, always the cautious staff officer favoured rereating further east to link up with the remaining three corps of the Prussian army before seeking a decisive battle.

Blucher on he other hand, always the hot headed "Hussar General" and desiring revenge for his defeats at Ligny and Planchenoit favoured atttack. He did not wish to face Napoleon in person at this stage. Grouchy on he oher hand was another matter. A swift attack on Grouchy,, resulting in the hoped for major Prussian victory before Napoleon could intervene would be a significant morale boost for the Prussia army and would retur the initiative to te Coalition. After wards Blucher could join with the Prussian reinforcements and Welllington to fight Napoleon himself, destroy the Armee du Nord, avenge Waterloo and Planchenoit and win the war.

It was a bold but risky plan. Orders went out to the four Prussian corps to advance on Louvain at dawn on the 23rd and seek a battle with Grouchy.

 

[lucaswillen05]

23 June 1815

Learning of Blucher's advance from Maastricht from his highly active cavalry screen Grouch disptached urgent messages to Napoleon informing he Emperor of the new development and moved his Wing of the Armee du Nord to take up a blocking position a few miles west of the town of Tienen.

Napoleon recieved Grouchy's messengers in late afternoon at his headquarters in the own of Geel.

Wellington had learned of Napoleon's movement east from Brussels. Fearing a possible envelopment Wellington manouvred cautiously ad defensivly to positions east of Antwerp around the town of Schilde.

The scene was now set for a maor clash between Blucher and Grouchy who would have to hold off the Prussians for a day while the rest of the Armee du Nord under Napoleon forced marched to the sound of the guns.