Napoleon wins Waterloo

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French Economic developments starting in 1816

The end of the Napoleonic Wars brought severe economic and social problems throughout Europe. The spring of 1816 was particularly bad with overcast skies and unseasonably cold temperatures. It would be over a hundred years before this phenomenon was linked to the 1815 Tambora eruption. All that was known in 1816 was that there were crop failures throughout Europe and widespread food shortages

http://history1800s.about.com/od/crimesanddisasters/a/The-Year-Without-A-Summer.htm

In France Napoleon addressed the challenges more effectively than most the European rulers. Food stocks were stored by the state and doled out to those in most need. An extensive series of Public Works projects began which provided employment for demobilized soldiery and unemployed agricultural workers. Much of the work was an extensive road and canal building program but there was also work provided in supporting the expansion of the French navy and in the building of monuments to fallen French soldiers . it was at this time that the Ney Monument on the battlefield of Tienan was constructed. The Ney Monument is, even today, a site of pilgrimage for Bonapartists and French patriots alike. French roads and canals were much expanded and improved at this time. Improved communications networks were not only vital for rapid military movements as would be seen in later wars but would also be vital contributors to the later French Industrial Revolution.

Napoleon also further modernized the French Welfare system at this time building on earlier reforms. Particular emphasis was, as one might expect, paid to the needs of disabled soldiers who were paid a generous stipend and retrained for suitable work in their own towns and villages. Those who wished to start up their own businesses could access a generous financial startup fund and a system of low interest loans particularly if their business supported Napoleon's other economic projects in some way

A completion was st up to encourage scientific innovation in the field of industrial machinery and in other areas considred in some way useful to the French state.

Here were he first foundations of the future French Industrial Revolution which would soon match developments in Britain and boost the French Economy. Napoleon's social and economic reforms put into place during the late 1810s meant that France would not see anything like the social and political discontent experienced in Britain or elsewhere in Europe over the next few years and this in spite of the continued activities of the Ultras
 
Social and Economic impact of the end of the Napoleonic Wars and effects of the Tambora Eruption 1816

With the end of hostilities in Europe large numbers of demobilized soldiers and sailors were, as in France, released onto the Labour ?Markets already poor given the impact of government debt and the financial crisis. A in France the volcanic winter resulting from the Tambora eruption caused widespread crop failures and often agricultural depression conditions

In contrast to France European governments, strapped for cash could not and did not alleviate conditions with French style public works projects, nor did they try other positive measures to alleviate conditions. In Britain this resulted in high unemployment, low wages and growing social discontent. In German and Italian states similar conditions prevailed and many began turning towards the growth of the new nationalist ideas starting to become popular at this time.

European rulers chose to blame much of the discontent on Napoleon's spies influencing malcontents and local former Bonapartists. There was in fact a degree of truth in this although modern historical research has found that it was nothing like the extent claimed at the time. However, in the growing atmosphere of distrust between Napoleonic France and the other European powers on top of the legacy of the Napoleonic Wars an atmosphere hat would today be described as a Cold War situation was developing strongly on he European geopolitical scene. It would not be long before these tensions would influence developments across the globe
 
Imperial Succession arrangements in France 1816

Given Napoleon's divorce from Marie Louise, the failure of the marrige plans between Npoleon and Marie Walewska and the minority of the Prince Imperial consideration had to be given to the Succession. Officially it was understoon that Napoleon would be succeeded by the Prince Imperial. If Napoleon died while the Prince Imperial a Regency Council would be formed. In the event that Napoleon died without bing able to nam the members of a Regency Council and considering the value of the identty of proposed Council Members to the Utras Terrorists a sealed letter was prepared detailing Napoleon's instructions.

In the event of the death of the Prince Imperial and of Napoleon the next in line for the throne would be Joseph. Most informed people considered it probable that either Joseph or Eugene de Beauharnis who had returned from xile in December 1815would either head or occupy very senior positions in any future Regency Council. it was also confidently expected that as enior Marshals Davout and Soult would occupy important Regency Council posts.

However, since the Emperor was still in relatively good health in 1816 the Emperor was widely expected to live for many years at which point the Prince Imperial would be of age to rule in his own right. It was also confidently expcted that Napoleon would soon remarry and sire furthe. heirs although there were few if any suitable candidates. Given the hostility of the other Great Europan Powers a marriage with a princess of a European Royal House was clearly out of the question. The ony options were therefore a French woman. Althoug Napoleon might have affairs in the future actresses and similar ladies were hardly presentable candidates as a future Empress.
 
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How about a French-Spanish naval battle in the 1820s, with French propaganda influencing Spanish sailors to desert? And, is 60 each of ships of the line and frigates owned by France enough for the 1820s?
 
What about Franco- American relations? Nappy needs some country that is not anti-French, America may not be an ally, but will trade freely, and I can see Americans helping to advise the French Navy some.

Both countries have reason to be wary of the British (Americans to a lesser extent)
 
How about a French-Spanish naval battle in the 1820s, with French propaganda influencing Spanish sailors to desert? And, is 60 each of ships of the line and frigates owned by France enough for the 1820s?

I am certainly thinking about a French intervention in Spain brought about by the OTL 1820 Revolution. IOTL Royalist France intervened on behalf of Ferdinand VII. In this timeline Bonapartist France is more likely to intervene on behalf of th Liberals. This will bring abut a major European Crisis and quite possibly a European war. Britain might well go to war over a possible threat to Portugal. Rather that a Franco Spanish sea battle we might see a clash between a French or Franco-Spanish fleet and the Royal Navy.

Depending on when exactly I kill Napoleon off this wil probably be the first major international Crisis for a future Regency Council
 
What about Franco- American relations? Nappy needs some country that is not anti-French, America may not be an ally, but will trade freely, and I can see Americans helping to advise the French Navy some.

Both countries have reason to be wary of the British (Americans to a lesser extent)

In the wake of the 1812 - 1815 war the United States might well be looking for better relations with France. Th Florida Purchase of 1819 (from Spain to US is also coining up
 
I am certainly thinking about a French intervention in Spain brought about by the OTL 1820 Revolution. IOTL Royalist France intervened on behalf of Ferdinand VII. In this timeline Bonapartist France is more likely to intervene on behalf of th Liberals. This will bring abut a major European Crisis and quite possibly a European war. Britain might well go to war over a possible threat to Portugal. Rather that a Franco Spanish sea battle we might see a clash between a French or Franco-Spanish fleet and the Royal Navy.

Depending on when exactly I kill Napoleon off this wil probably be the first major international Crisis for a future Regency Council
Wouldn't the liberals be tainted by their direct association with the Bonapartes?This could very well bring back memories of the Peninsular War and the liberals would very likely be seen as collaborators.The French intervention may very well be seen by the other countries and the Spanish public at large as Peninsular War 2.0.
 

Alcsentre Calanice

Gone Fishin'
Wouldn't the liberals be tainted by their direct association with the Bonapartes?This could very well bring back memories of the Peninsular War and the liberals would very likely be seen as collaborators.The French intervention may very well be seen by the other countries and the Spanish public at large as Peninsular War 2.0.

Sure such an intervention would be very unfavorable for the Spanish Liberals.

I am certainly thinking about a French intervention in Spain brought about by the OTL 1820 Revolution. IOTL Royalist France intervened on behalf of Ferdinand VII. In this timeline Bonapartist France is more likely to intervene on behalf of th Liberals. This will bring abut a major European Crisis and quite possibly a European war. Britain might well go to war over a possible threat to Portugal. Rather that a Franco Spanish sea battle we might see a clash between a French or Franco-Spanish fleet and the Royal Navy.

A war! A new war! Rejoice!

BTW, is an intervention on behalf of the Liberals even necessary? Royalist France intervened because of the Liberals winning in the country, why sould Napoleon invade Spain just to support Liberals that are controlling the country? Seems to be quite superfluous.

And why should the absolutist emperor Napoleon support the Liberals?
 
Wouldn't the liberals be tainted by their direct association with the Bonapartes?This could very well bring back memories of the Peninsular War and the liberals would very likely be seen as collaborators.The French intervention may very well be seen by the other countries and the Spanish public at large as Peninsular War 2.0.

I will be using the actual 1820 Spanish Revolution in Portugal and Spain as the basis for events in this timeline

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Revolution_of_1820
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trienio_Liberal

Historically Royalist France sent an army to support Ferdinand. In this timeline there would be a very good chance of intervention by both France and Britain. As you say a second Peninsular War is entirely probable in the early 1820s and possibly expanding into a European War.

However as we are still ony in 1816 right now there are several years of European diplomacy to cover before we get to our Spanish crisis. The development of this timeline's Congress System and the extent to which it can hold together will be very important to the outcom of the next war
 
Sure such an intervention would be very unfavorable for the Spanish Liberals.



A war! A new war! Rejoice!

BTW, is an intervention on behalf of the Liberals even necessary? Royalist France intervened because of the Liberals winning in the country, why sould Napoleon invade Spain just to support Liberals that are controlling the country? Seems to be quite superfluous.

And why should the absolutist emperor Napoleon support the Liberals?

Don't forget some of the Liberals will likely be former supporters of King Joseph. Also it may well be that there will be some form of British intervention that will draw France in. There are still five or six years of diplomacy setting up the conditions for the next war and much can happen in that time. I can very easily kill Napoleon off around 1821 for instance, hence French intervention in Spain circa 1822 might be being decided by the Regency Council.

There are however several posts covering the events and diplomacy of the Late 1810s I need to write before we arrive at the "Spanish War" and a possible wider European War in the early 1820s
 

Alcsentre Calanice

Gone Fishin'
I can very easily kill Napoleon off around 1821 for instance, hence French intervention in Spain circa 1822 might be being decided by the Regency Council.

Well, but even without Napoleon France has good chances to win every war. Put Lazare Carnot and Davout in charge (even if they both died quickly in 1823 in OTL), they will crush every enemy.
 
Well, but even without Napoleon France has good chances to win every war. Put Lazare Carnot and Davout in charge (even if they both died quickly in 1823 in OTL), they will crush every enemy.

Very likely France will win a war in the eary 1820s although it may well be Soult that occupies the senior command slot. There are also the new Marshals Napoleon appoited in this timeline (eg Gerard) There are other Napoleonic generals like Lauriston who can occupy senior command positions in a future war. Grouchy is still very much on the scene and came out of TTL 1815 with much more credit than OTL and my well ake further significant roles. He lived until 1847

Over the next few years Carnot and Davout will be woring to modernise the French Military. A French General Staff by the early 1820s or at least a prototype version copying developments in Prussia during the final years of the Napolenic Wars. This, combined with tactical modernization of the French army will be a great dvantage in the next war. Perhaps we might see Legere units starting to be equipped with rifles sometime between 1816 and 1821

What happens after such a war is still too far ahead to consider although I do have a broad idea of how this timeline is going to end in the early to mid 1830s. However I don't want to give that a\way at this stage. You may be able to take an intelligent guess but don't say anything...
 
The Fall of Earl Grey's Whig Government October 1816

Faced with numerous challenges including

1 Tory attacks on Foreign Policy. The Tories led by Lord Liverpool and Canning blamed he Whig Betrayal for the collapse of the 7th Coalition and the international consequences of that. Had the Whigs not stabbed Lord Liverpool's government in the back Britain would have been abe to cotinue bankrolling the Calition. In spite of the defeats in June 1815 the Tories argued, he Coalition should have held togeher and overwhelmed Napoleon by sheer military force by the end of 1815. Instead the foolish Whigs had pulled out of the Coalition causing it to collapse. Napoleon had predictably reneged on his word given under the Treaty of Paris. He had annxed Belgium and was likely to have agents in the German and Italian St\tes. French agents in Spain were likewise working to futher the cause of the Afrancsados and other Spanish Liberals opposd to the rule of King Ferdinand VII. Very likely, the Tories warned, Napoleon's nefarious activities in Europe would lead to war. Th Tories also warned of the coninud French nava buildups, the ovrsized French army, the French annexation of Blgium and reports suggesting Napoleon might be sening financial aid and French Military Advisors to the Mahratta Prics in Italy, to Simon Bolvar's nt Spanish rebels in South America and to Mehemet Ali in Egypt. There were also hints of negotiatons between Napoleonic France and the United States.

2 Agricultural failure. The 1816 Harvest had been poor. Discontent was growing in both the towns and the rural areas over food prices and high unemployment The Whig Government had failed to manage the econnomy as shown by the deepening economic recession Worse, the social problems were starting to get out of control - and his was no doubt being encouraged by Napoleon's spies - who were no doubt working to bring about a 1789 style revolution

In early Octobr Lord Liverpool and Canning raised a No Confidence Bill in arl Grey's Governmnt. On 12 October Earl Grey lost the No Confidence Vote. Next day he went to the Prince Regent making it clear ha he could no longer xpecct the suport of te House. After several days it beccame clear that none of the other Whig Leaders would b able to form a Government.

On October 21 the Prince Regent (George III was considered permanently nsane at this point) asked Lord Liverpool to form a new adminstration which officially took office the next day.

The new Tory Governmnt's first order of business was of course to sort out the economic and foreign policy mess left by Earl Grey's disasterous Whig Government. Liverpool acted swiftlt appointing Canning as Foreign Minister. Canning swiftly arrnged meetigs with the Russian, Prussian and Austrian ambassadors. Lord Liverpool meanwhile got on with dealing with the financial, ecnomic and political crises.
 
Excellent timeline, you seem to worry over critic's input too much. Write your story and ignore the nay sayers......
 
Lord Liverpool Domestic Policies Late October 1816 - SPRING 1817

The first domestic policy decision wasto retain the unpopular Corn Laws passed by Liverpool's first administration in 1815. Despite Liverpool#s free trade principles and the higher food pricesthe Corn Laws were a revenue stream due to the duties imposed on foreign wheat imports. This added to government coffers and contributed towards payng down the National Debt

Secondly, since the activities of the Luddites and other seditious activity was blamed on the support of French spies. In January 1817, citing the danger of a possible revolution similar to that of France in 1789 Lord Liverpool's government suspended Habeus Corpus and ordered the use of the Militia backed up by the Regular Army to clamp down on popular dissent including demonstrations, strikes and Luddite style Machine Breaking.

With the country still battling to recover from the end of the Napoleonic Wars as well as the agricultural and industrial recession as well as the still unresolved post Waterloo financial crisis conditions in Britain were nearuing hat we would descibe today as depression level the result would be an unprecented level of social conflict for several years. Liverpool would face great challenges in navigating the stormy waters of the next few years
 
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