Impact of a CS Victory of Gettysburg?

[freethinker]

With the riots in New York that took place when the Unionists won Gettysburg I can only imagine the unrest if the battle is lost.

From what I know of the 1864 Election Mc.Clellan would have won if Atlanta had not been destroyed. Certainly a defeat on Gettysburg would have smashed the national image and support for the war.

 

[Elfwine]

With the riots in New York that took place when the Unionists won Gettysburg I can only imagine the unrest if the battle is lost.

From what I know of the 1864 Election Mc.Clellan would have won if Atlanta had not been destroyed. Certainly a defeat on Gettysburg would have smashed the national image and support for the war.

I don't see why it would be worse. They were over the draft, specifically, not the war per se.

And why would a defeat at Gettysburg smash the national image or support for the war? One defeat - and even in the context of the Eastern theater (but not the rest of the war) - "yet another" defeat - is hardly the end of the game.

 

[freethinker]

I don't see why it would be worse. They were over the draft, specifically, not the war per se.

And why would a defeat at Gettysburg smash the national image or support for the war? One defeat - and even in the context of the Eastern theater (but not the rest of the war) - "yet another" defeat - is hardly the end of the game.

The image would have been smashed in my opinion as it would have shown there was little end in sight for union soldiers to be overun in the north by the "rebels" would likely damage the people of the North East in general.


I think you are right that a Confederate Victory at Gettysburg would not effect the western part of the nation in the same way as in the east.

 

[Elfwine]

The image would have been smashed in my opinion as it would have shown there was little end in sight for union soldiers to be overun in the north by the "rebels" would likely damage the people of the North East in general.


I think you are right that a Confederate Victory at Gettysburg would not effect the western part of the nation in the same way as in the east.

I don't think it would effect the eastern part of the nation in that sense either.

Losing a battle is not the same as the war lost, especially considering the news from the West.

If anything, people are going to rally behind opposition to the war's ineffective conduct - meaning people pressing harder for war.

During the invasion, there was the idea of reforming the 126th Pennsylvania Infantry regiment (whose term had recently expired), for example, not "So, do we send the message of surrender to Lee, or Richmond?"

 

[Reggie Bartlett]

I don't think it would effect the eastern part of the nation in that sense either.

Losing a battle is not the same as the war lost, especially considering the news from the West.

If anything, people are going to rally behind opposition to the war's ineffective conduct - meaning people pressing harder for war.

During the invasion, there was the idea of reforming the 126th Pennsylvania Infantry regiment (whose term had recently expired), for example, not "So, do we send the message of surrender to Lee, or Richmond?"

The image would be that of a Confederate Army capable of winning a battle on Northern soil. I guess we could say the POD for this is the end of the First Day at Gettysburg IMO.

 

[Elfwine]

The image would be that of a Confederate Army capable of winning a battle on Northern soil. I guess we could say the POD for this is the end of the First Day at Gettysburg IMO.

This is going to involve claiming Ewell could sweep two Union corps (battered to be sure, but not eliminated) with two brigades, isn't it?

 

[Reggie Bartlett]

This is going to involve claiming Ewell could sweep two Union corps (battered to be sure, but not eliminated) with two brigades, isn't it?

What I mean is Ewell or Trimble taking the high ground before the end of the day. As Trimble thought of taking Cemetery Hill, weren't there any other divisions in the area that could have assisted them?

 

[Elfwine]

What I mean is Ewell or Trimble taking the high ground before the end of the day. As Trimble thought of taking Cemetery Hill, weren't there any other divisions in the area that could have assisted them?

In order of least to most bloodied:

Anderson's division is being held in reserve by Lee, and would also take time to actually assemble and position for an attack even if not sent into bivouac.

Johnson is coming up but won't be in a position to engage for at least a couple hours.

Early's division has two brigades watching the flanks of Ewell's corps, which leaves the other two as the two brigades in question.

Rodes's division has suffered heavily and will be at least an hour most likely getting in position, even if orders are issued ASAP.

Pender's division is banged up but not entirely unfit.

Heth's division is a wreck.


I agree with Ewell about the battle of Gettysburg (paraphrased: It took many mistakes to lose Gettysburg, and I made several of them.), but this is not one of them. Not unless Lee sends Anderson forward instead of holding his division in reserve.

So Ewell or Trimble taking the high ground requires that, at a minimum, in order to have any realistic chance - by the point Ewell can do more than throw Avery's (properly speaking, Hoke's) and Hays's brigades at the hill, the Federals have reinforcements very close too.

 

[Reggie Bartlett]

In order of least to most bloodied:

Johnson is coming up but won't be in a position to engage for at least a couple hours.

Anderson's division is being held in reserve by Lee, and would also take time to actually assemble and position for an attack.

Early's division has two brigades watching the flanks, which leaves the other two as the two brigades in question.

Rodes's division has suffered heavily and will be at least an hour most likely getting in position, even if orders are issued ASAP.

Pender's division is banged up but not entirely unfit.

Heth's division is a wreck.


I agree with Ewell about the battle of Gettysburg (paraphrased: It took many mistakes to lose Gettysburg, and I made several of them.), but this is not one of them. Not unless Lee sends Anderson forward instead of holding his division in reserve.

So Ewell or Trimble taking the high ground requires that, at a minimum, in order to have any realistic chance - by the point Ewell can do more than throw Avery's (properly speaking, Hoke's) and Hays's brigades at the hill, the Federals have reinforcements very close too.

So, say Lee decides to go with it, Anderson's, the remainder of Pender's divisions and the two other brigades are sent in.

 

[Elfwine]

So, say Lee decides to go with it, Anderson's, the remainder of Pender's divisions and the two other brigades are sent in.

Best case scenario for the ANV: Gettysburg, a one day battle, is a win for the ANV. but the largely intact Army of the Potomac remains a formidable problem for whatever Lee intends to do next.

 

[Reggie Bartlett]

Best case scenario for the ANV: Gettysburg, a one day battle, is a win for the ANV. but the largely intact Army of the Potomac remains a formidable problem for whatever Lee intends to do next.

So, July 1st, Gettysburg is a Confederate victory.

Once Davis and the Confederate government hear of it will they send it to the British? And does Lee decide to move back into Virginia, or campaign further into Pennsylvania or Maryland to push for another victory?

 

[Elfwine]

So, July 1st, Gettysburg is a Confederate victory.

Once Davis and the Confederate government hear of it will they send it to the British? And does Lee decide to move back into Virginia, or campaign further into Pennsylvania or Maryland to push for another victory?

They might. And I doubt the British will care. It's not a major victory, it's just defeating a part of the Army of the Potomac in detail. Ho hum.

As for what Lee does next - depends in part on his army's position relative to Meade's.

Meade can maneuver to cover anything Lee can threaten.

 

[hairysamarian]

There is a marginal improvement in the Confederates' chances, and that only because it is possible (barely) that the North might be more open to a political solution if the Army of the Potomac doesn't regroup quickly.

 

[Athelstane]

The Battle of Gettysburg is one of the most often used PODs in alternate history literature. It seems to me that there is an assumption that a Confederate victory at Gettysburg would have almost certainly lead to Confederate independence. While I think there are any number of PODs that could have resulted in a Confederate victory at Gettysburg, I'm more skeptical about whether a victory there would have resulted in the South winning the war.

Suppose that Lee achieves a decisive victory at Gettysburg on the scale of Second Manassas. In other words, the Army of the Potomac is routed and flees southward in some disorder before regrouping along the Pipe Creek defensive line (as Meade had planned to do in the event of defeat). What impact would this have had on the course of the war?

I think you need something more decisive than another Second Manassas - or even a Chickamauga - to really increase the CSA' chances of winning appreciably. You've really got to take the Army of the Potomac off the board, at least for a good while.

People have mixed feelings here on Gingrich and Forschten's Gettysburg series, but it does at least paint what kind of victory you'd need, however difficult some of its premises might be to grant: the ANV winning with a force march deep into Meade's rear, forcing him to attack on horrible ground at Pipe Creek to regain his supply line and contact with Washington, and having the army destroyed in detail. And even in this scenario, G&F make a decent point of showing just how difficult Lee's position remains: Over a third of his infantry strength gone, and no real means of storming the fortifications of Washington at a cost he can afford. So he's left to take Baltimore, and hope for Northern despair to kick in.

But even that scenario might not cause Lincoln to lose his support, and it would probably just bring Grant to the East that much sooner. So even a really decisive win at Gettysburg only marginally improves the CSA's chances, at all odds. By June 1863 they've basically been cut in two and lost Tennessee, manpower dwindling dangerously low, with almost no chance of major European support available post-Emancipation Proclamation.

 

[Elfwine]

I'm not sure that Washington would be as hard to take as that, but a lot depends on how fast it can be reinforced vs. how fast Lee can reach it.

On one hand, the garrison has been stripped to the bone besides the heavy artillery. On the other, the men are available to reinforce it - 4th and 7th Corps, 10th Corps (as in Gingrich and Forschten's series), 18th Corps (such as it is), and men moved from 8th Corps.

And that's without moving a man from further away than South Carolina or West Virginia.

I think the main thing is that if Lee can majorly scramble the Federal deployments in the East, and possibly even get Grant and men from the Army of the Tennessee sent East - that's seriously impacted the Union strategy, which may be something that can be used to advantage.


It won't win the war in a campaign, and if he tries, he's probably going to lose. But . . .

Personally I think the only real chance for a Confederate win in the Gettysburg campaign - defined as a better position when the ANV reenters Virginia than when it left it, losses accepted as inevitable - is if Lee is reinforced first, rather than midway through.

Or at worst the Army of Distraction is assembled. But how you do it isn't the point - the troops need to be ready to move as soon as the Feds start trying to find a way to defeat Lee now that he's thrashed the AotP.

 

[Athelstane]

I'm not sure that Washington would be as hard to take as that, but a lot depends on how fast it can be reinforced vs. how fast Lee can reach it.

But I think Gingrich and Forschten point out the biggest handicap Lee would have in winning that race - the heavy rains that struck the area in the days after Gettysburg, turning the roads into mud.

 

[Elfwine]

But I think Gingrich and Forschten point out the biggest handicap Lee would have in winning that race - the heavy rains that struck the area in the days after Gettysburg, turning the roads into mud.

Yeah. Meanwhile, the Union forces can move by sea, which is faster than land even without mud.

My main objection to the G&F trilogy is their fetish for having the Army of the Potomac get beaten up.

And yet for some reason despite being smashed like a Ming vase twice, we have Sykes(? Been a while since I read it) and some last remmant coming in for the final stuff because reasons.

It's a good concept, and the idea that Gettysburg as a win isn't enough is rock solid, but it needs work.

 

[Johnrankins]

The problem is that any "victory" at Gettysburg is going to be a Pyrrhic one . The most likely one is that Lee decides Gettysburg isn't worth fighting over by the middle of he second day and moves off toward Washington. He can then claim a minor victory as he will have beaten Meade the first day and pulled out to go toward Washington the second. He can always claim that was his real aim. Attacking on the third day will be a disaster even if he "wins" it. At worst he forces Meade to retreat to Pipes Creek after he has taken massive casualties. He will then have to retreat soon afterwords due to lack of supplies.

 

[phx1138]

You need a swing of just over 5% from the Republicans to the Democrats in order for Lincoln to lose in 1864.

Forget 1864.

If the Federals were driven off at Gettysburg, they fall back to a stronger defensive position. Lee pursues & attacks, his army is destroyed, & the war ends in 1863.

Starting a couple of weeks later, apologists & AHers speculate endlessly on the effect of Lee losing...

 

[LOTLOF]

So let's say the Confederates occupy Little Round Top on the first day. They win a solid, but not crushing, victory and the Army of the Potomac breaks off in good order. Say they have suffered 10 - 15 thousand casualties and the southerners have suffered slightly fewer, 8 - 10 thousand.

Now what?

Unless you get intervention by Britain and France, highly unlikely as Britain had a thriving trade with the North and was loathe to openly support slavery, a Southern victory at Gettysburg is not a war winner. Even if Jefferson Davis offers an armistice and peace talks, Lincoln will refuse unless reunion is a precondition. The north was used to defeats in the east, this is just another one. It is not an election year and even if there is an increase in anti-war sentiment the government will stay the course.

As soon as news of Vicksburg comes over the wires the newspapers will shout it to the skies. It will probably more than make up for the defeat in Pennsylvania.

Lee is still short of ammunition and cannot feed his army so long as they are forced to concentrate with Union forces nearby. Even with victory, he is probably still forced to withdraw back to Virginia to secure his supply line. That would make Gettysburg a tactical victory, but with no strategic consequences.

Grant is likely rushed to Washington as fast as possible to take direct command of the eastern theater. So long as there are victories before the 1864 elections the South still loses.